Ky Oaks and Derby Picks

re: Ky Oaks and Derby Picks

Ted from LA — Wed, 23 May 2012 21:30:49 GMT

The final word.

re: Ky Oaks and Derby Picks

Monarchos Matt — Tue, 08 May 2012 21:10:13 GMT

Rusty,

I'd agree with you except that last year Get Stormy was the lone speed after Little Mike scratched. This year if you wanted to use Little Mike, wouldn't you had to have used Get Stormy and Turbo Compressor as well? I agree if I had known Little Mike would be able to get loose on the lead I would have used him, but on paper it was tough to differentiate him from the other two speed horses and I, like you, decided to beat all of them and play the closer. In retrospect it wouldn't have mattered as I didn't have IHA on my ticket anyway.

re: Ky Oaks and Derby Picks

Secretariat — Tue, 08 May 2012 16:24:27 GMT

I have been reading a plethora of over-exaggerated statements about Bodemeister in the last few days.

Sure, Bodemeister ran an impressive 6 furlongs in 1:09 and change in the Kentucky Derby, but he also ran his last half mile in a "pathetic" 52 and change.

If this race doesn't tell our breeding industry what we are producing, then I don't know what will...

Our breeding industry can't produce fast 1 1/4 mile horses anymore.

They produce fast milers.

Is that we want?

Most of these breeders want horses that can run 10 second eighths at these auctions. They could care a less about a mile and a quarter horse... once the hammer falls.

The breeding industry would like you to believe that the term "brilliance" equals the following:

"A horse that can go 1:09 and change in the Kentucky Derby and fall apart at the 1/4 pole.

The best colt won the 2012 Kentucky Derby and his name is: "I'll Have Another". Sore losers and the breeding industry will tell you different.

re: Ky Oaks and Derby Picks

bohemiastable — Tue, 08 May 2012 16:19:15 GMT

Why? Bodi was 5 to the good turning for home and still there at the 1/16--you either show his greatness or not---Smith did nothing wrong--he ran great and just lost. Dullahan went super wide---it was Kent's call---I don't challenge Mike or Kent they have been the elite for years for a reason. Winner got a perfect trip---great ride---maybe this kid is the star on the rise-----but next week and say your "life" depended on winning a race and you had a pick of the three---who do you pick---the Hall of Famer's or the new kid on the block? Trainers find this riders for a reason--their talent and decision making.

Johnny V's horse was flying---he got in trouble---his fault?

Anyone watching Super Saver's Derby knows the race set up perfectly for a closer and the place horse Ice Box THE WAY THE RACE WAS RUN----should have won--- not Super Saver---- giving Nick another Derby --what if's don't count---Neither horse proved anything after that race----what you guys/and sometimes girls should complain that the Derby is often filled with horses that don't belong that get in the way or change the dynamic of the race.

Yes this is why I think it is sad to see a genuinely nice horse like Optimizer (I shouldn't really single Lukas out but he is a legend and should know better) run and a maiden in the Oaks---they are not going to win going into the gate. Yes we all saw Mine That Bird and one of a thousand will surprise, but this is far from the norm. (Don't give me the LA Derby as an example he really had a chance on paper--not that I bet him but there were far worse looking). I just see so many great pots all over the country for 1st AND 2nd tier horses that are available when a horse is 3. Why invest serious money on lottery tickets at millions to one---trust me racing a TB is serious money.

Instead of complaining about bad rides, what about calling out trainers/owners that get into way of horses that can win. If a mother/father uses bad judgement--(tanning comes to mind) we are all over them in the press. Why would you put a average person who loses against local competition in the ring with Mayweather to get his brains knocked out?

Also if you want to call me out on this I will put you in touch with my old trainer(I have no horses now for 3 yrs)--Quote Me- Drop him into 5K's--Trainer but he just run 3rd for 10K Me---He ran 3rd 3 times and is running his guts out and not winning, let him win and get some confidence--Trainer-we'll lose him--Me--so?-----End of story he won for 5K--wasn't claimed jumped up back to 10K after getting his confidence back and won then jumped to 12K where he ran second and I lost him to a claim. Notice all high % stables do the same. Horses have ego's and confidence problems as well as people. I beef about too much---but in racing this is my biggest WHY?????????????? I would kill for a nice horse like Optimizer that could win nice pot allowances and maybe some minor stakes, more than pay his training bills, and would be fun to watch with friends and take to the winner's circle instead of watching him bath in the stable mud from the race that was thrown in his eyes and body and breathing hard his veins popping out---a horse lover.

Complain about this--not riders trying to win the best they can given the challenges in a 20 field that should be 10.

re: Ky Oaks and Derby Picks

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 08 May 2012 15:55:23 GMT

Geronimo2123:

"hypocritical sycophants"

I'm laughing. I'm laughing because I think you're right. In my enthusiasm for the horse I, too, almost whipped out that Baffert quote in defense of Smith, but I'm glad I thought better of it.

A word of defense of Smith: the fractions were exaggerated by the surface.

I still like Bodemeister for the Preakness. I singled Shackleford last year and this horse is all the more appealing. I'll Have Another is not going to blow him away on the turn with a Funny Cide/Smarty Jones/Afleet Alex move and no closing type is going to catch him, either.

re: Ky Oaks and Derby Picks

draynot — Tue, 08 May 2012 14:22:19 GMT

Slew how often do 2 California horses hit the board in the Derby ? Do your homework rookie. Learn from a expert and just do what I tell you to do.

Draynay 19 Apr 2012 1:57 PM

California horses dominated the Derby with 5 of the top 8 finishers.

When was the last time a SA Derby winner won the KY Derby? Answer 3 days ago!! At least we don't have to listen to that draynay B.S. anymore.

I'm wondering when you are going to eat your crow and admit Bodemeister is the real thing draynay. He set the pace with the fastest first 4 fractions ever recorded in 138 Kentucky Derby's and nearly pulled it off!! Be a man and admit you were wrong when you claimed this horse wasn't good enough to finish in the top 8.

Let's take a trip down memory lane and go back 2 years just after the 2010 Preakness when First Dude set all the fractions and nearly won. Here's what you had to say about First Dude:

"Pace does not set up well for Ice Box this is two horse race between Fly Down and the new SUPERSTAR First Dude.... First Dude wins in a walk over."

Draynay aka handicapping LEGEND. 23 May 2010 8:19 PM

Bodemeister set faster fractions than First Dude in a longer race and you called First Dude a superstar, if it had been a horse you touted you'd be telling us how great you were to have picked him and he finished second ala Nehro.

You certainly are a legend but it's at picking losers and being wrong. How did your "Borel Factor" play this year on Derby day?

re: Ky Oaks and Derby Picks

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 08 May 2012 14:18:27 GMT

Householder,

I see you stayed loyal to CC. I did, too, enough to play him strongly him underneath. I had a trifecta similar to your superfecta. I didn't feel I had the money to at the super (which is good, as I wouldn't have hit, either), but that is the way to go every year: it was $48,000-1, and perfectly logical, especially if you played Bodemeister as a lock to hit the board on that surface. The super always pays way out of proportion to the trifecta; it is a much better pick. The other way, freaky payoff-wise, is any multi-race bet (they're only this way on KD and Breeder's Cup day). Another example: the fifty-cent Groupie Doll/Little Mike/IHA pick-3 paid $800.

That goes to show you that "handicapping" is one thing...but betting is what separates men from boys.

You were very perceptive about UR. On the basis of the workouts (and the hype, curse me) I kept him in my top six, and even played him underneath in a trifecta the same way I played CC, but, like you said, he probably washed out before the race and in the four post he was inevitably going to be folded into traffic and miserable.

re: Ky Oaks and Derby Picks

slyder — Tue, 08 May 2012 13:36:00 GMT

Slyder had his best day ever at the track on Friday and Saturday. The 25 futures bet on Believe You Can at 36/1 along with my 60 futures bets (20 in each pool) for I'll Have Another went nicely with my 2.50 tri in the Derby and my $1 super!! Don't say I didn't try and help you all, here's my early predictions from an earlier blog:

"One rule of thumb that almost always seems to apply to the Derby is look for an improving horse especially from age 2 to 3. That rules out top contenders such as Union Rags, Gemologist, and Hansen, who haven't run much if any faster than they did at 2. Each has run at least twice this year and I would have expected marked improvement over last year but it didn't happen. Those who have stepped it up include Dullahan, I'll Have Another, Alpha, Daddy Nose Best, Bodemeister (who may have had his "bounce" in the San Felipe and now be poised to run another high), and to a lesser extent maybe Creative Cause. It's still a long way to May 5th, I'll be watching works, post draws, etc. before I make my final choice. One thing for sure, Post 1 is a automatic toss no matter who."

slyder 19 Apr 2012 3:40 PM

Your welcome to those who listened.

re: Ky Oaks and Derby Picks

Rusty Weisner — Tue, 08 May 2012 11:39:27 GMT

Monarchos Matt,

I think my single lessoned learned from this weekend is: never, never throw out the horse you know will try to steal a turf race. I should have learned that lesson Friday from Silver Max instead of Saturday. Don't get cute and overconfident in how the race will be run. That's the second year in a row the Woodford has destroyed me in the Pick4...last year I handicapped it correctly but didn't pull the trigger in singling Get Stormy; this year...meh. Then again, you learn a different lesson every day doing this; cute and overconfident would have worked swell last time.

Other singles I had: the 10-1 longshot in the 2nd, Kingwood, the Baffert horse in the 5th (already had a bad feeling when it was like 5-2), Great Mills in the 6th.

re: Ky Oaks and Derby Picks

Geronimo2123 — Tue, 08 May 2012 10:21:32 GMT

"Finally and most importantly--i hope they tell ramon to stop strangling him (Hansen)--he's a front runner--let him run." - Pap.

I agree. What did that accomplish? Better to "lose valiantly" than choked off the lead and be an also ran...that is brilliant! I agree. I thought the ride on Bode was too fast but I have a ton of respect for that HORSE now. As for Hansen, they are heading to the Preakness. If they do not heed your advice they are wasting their time IMO. I went back and watched every one of Hansen's races and he had a tight hold on for half of every race! Even his maiden he was not allowed to really run off until after 4f. At that point the jock lowered the reins and Hansen just took off and left the field in the dust.

Let the darn horse run! If they can do it for Bode, do it for Hansen for crying out loud. Let's see what the horse can do!

BTW, don't you love how every Tom, Dick and Harry in the racing world was saying the only chance Bode and Hansen had was to rate behind Trinni and not go too fast pre-Derby? Then, Smith and Baffert decide to wire the field and Smith goes flat out for 10f setting a torrid pace and now, suddenly, it is GENIUS! Suddenly, the horse that "could rate" before the Derby is the speedball from Hades! "It was the only thing Mike could do." Fine. Let's let ALL the speed run. If it is good enough for Bode...Hansen sure as heck wants to run! I think Hansen might have finished 3rd if he had his head and broke better and did not clip heels with Prospective. The way speed was staying. Even in his washed out form.

And everyone is praising the move on Bode! It shows you how Baffert is a leader, not a follower, and everyone else now is saying yes, Bob and Mike, and following his lead. Amazing...

re: Ky Oaks and Derby Picks

Geronimo2123 — Tue, 08 May 2012 10:02:42 GMT

"For those criticizing Mike's ride, this is the way Bodemeister wants to run, I believe. He is a free-wheeling horse. Mike said he didn't want to try and hold him back and have the horse fight him. He just tried to keep him relaxed on the lead and let him run the race he wanted to run. Some said he reminds them of Holy Bull, but he reminds me of Congaree more." -Footlick

Fair enough. If that is the case Bodemeister is his own worse enemy at classic distances and needs to relax or he is a one dimensional speed ball who will not win classic races.

Personally, I think the horse has loads of talent but if he cannot relax on the lead he will keep falling short at classic distances. Which is a shame.

re: Ky Oaks and Derby Picks

Geronimo2123 — Tue, 08 May 2012 09:50:02 GMT

"If anything, Bodemeister lost because of his jockey. Churchill has not been kind to Mke Smith. Why would you go out ALONE in 45 seconds and change?" - Householder.

Amen to that. I applaud the decision BY BAFFERT and Smith pre-race to try and wire the field if Bode broke well, and basically short circuit any serious pace threat, but the horse went too fast and was left with nothing in the tank. Instead of resting the horse when he was 2-3 lengths ahead before the 6f mark, Smith was tapping Bode on the shoulder and asking for more! WHY? Trinni was coming back no matter how slow Bode went at that point. Why try and put him away at 6f when he is coming back at 7f anyhow? It was absurd, and even more absurd that people are defending the "HOF ride."

If you are going to go 22-1/5 for the opening quarter, at least get the horse to relax on the backstretch. The last horse to almost wire the Derby was Hard Spun, who went 22-3/5 in his 1st split but came home in 25-1/5 for the final 2 furlongs because they slowed the pace down in the middle of the race--with Stormello, Trinni's dad, and Cowtown Cat on HS' heels. If they did it then they could do it with what was on Bode's rear... That is almost 2 seconds FASTER for the final 2 furlongs than Bode...who received no rest at all. The race was over at 6f...someone was getting up at that point. I was amazed the horse went as far as he did. But guess what people? When you are that amazed its because the horse overcame a bad ride and too fast pace. And rather than blame Smith "experts" are still trying to blame Trinniberg! Are you kidding me? Is Bode so in need of space that he has to run that fast? If so, he will never win a 10f race.

Jockeys that are good on speed and going wire to wire like Angel Codero used to say if there is other speed in the race you go fast early, rest in the middle and pick it up late. And, the field will normally bunch up going into the second turn and expand again once the speed is asked to run like an accordion. What was Smith afraid of, that Trinni might stick a nose ahead at 7f? The horse was dead tired at that point...he was backing up regardless.

Bode ran as good as a horse could run these days off of those fractions...Hansen was washed out and had clipped heels with Prospective and had to waste energy getting up. Bode had it made...why the rush? Spend a Buck was a thing of the past in this 20 horse field and breeding for speed. If Bode settled he may have won. Instead, considering the ride, the horse that deserved to win won. Great ride on IHA...

BTW, if this was anyone else other than Baffert and Smith they would be calling for the jockey's head, like they did when Mario Pino took HS to 6f in 1:09 and change at the Preakness in 2007. Pino was OFF the next race (which was a bad move)...but the same people who were lambasting Pino for his "boneheaded" decision to let HS have the lead through 1:09 and change are praising HOFer Smith saying it was a great and "bold ride" and they had to run that fast because Trinni was 3 lengths behind. What a JOKE!

And Andy Beyer is conflating people criticizing Smith for going too fast on the lead with the decision to go wire to wire. C'mon, Andy! Apples to oranges...wiring the field is fine, its THE MANNER he did it that was so patently absurd. Nice try...

What a bunch of hypocritical sycophants. Bode went too fast! Admit it. The ride stunk; it was a strategic blunder. Even Spend a Buck had a slower 23 flat opening quarter. Bode had NO REST. Not for a second. And he was not pressed, he did this to himself! Terrible ride!

re: Ky Oaks and Derby Picks

LAZMANICK — Tue, 08 May 2012 02:54:26 GMT

Jay

Here's a thought. If you would have played a $2 super box on the winners of the most import prep races IMO……the SA Derby, Arkansas Derby, Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, Blue Grass and Spiral Stakes, a $720 ticket, you would have won $96K. A $1 box ($360 bet), was good for a paltry 48K.

re: Ky Oaks and Derby Picks

LAZMANICK — Tue, 08 May 2012 02:47:35 GMT

Jayjay

I think that Draynay borrowed a lot of money from the Greek Govenment to bet on the Derby and Oaks. Not only does he jinx horse, he puts govenments in financial peril.

re: Ky Oaks and Derby Picks

trackjack — Tue, 08 May 2012 02:12:02 GMT

Ted Bob:

You are certainly not a fool. Anyone who goes to the Derby every year is quite smart in my book and smart people usually have a smart phone. But I hope you had a great time. Did sherpa carry your stuff?

re: Ky Oaks and Derby Picks

GunBow — Tue, 08 May 2012 01:50:08 GMT

My premilinary Beyer for the Derby was 103.

Rusty is likely correct that Beyer assigned the 101 partly to defend the 95 he gave the SA Derby. Although many criticized that SA Derby fig, for Team Beyer the SA Derby was a test case why their figs hold value over simply looking at final times. The final time indicated the SA Derby was the best prep, but because the figs take into account track variant, the fig reflected the fact SA was blazing on the day of the Derby.

In my opinion, the SA Derby fig of 95 was correct. But it's correct not because I'll Have Another and Creative Cause aren't fast or could not have run faster that day. No, the final time and 95 Beyer were largely the results of Mario on IHA and Rosario on Creative Cause allowing the longshot Blueskiesnrainbows to absolutely waltz on the lead; the race was a virtual matchrace, and both Mario and Rosarion reserved their horses for a 3 furlong burst, knowing they could reel in Blueskies whenever they wanted and that no closer was going to be able to make up enough ground to pass them in the stretch. Like with many turf and synth races, Mario and Rosario rode their horses to win the race, not run a big fig(in contrast to Bodemeister in the Arkansas Derby who was basically ridden to win by running big from the start).

So, going into th Kentucky Derby, I knew IHA and CC could run faster, and wasn't going to hold that 95 as a key factor in devising the Derby fig; thus, it wouldn't have been a stretch if IHA won by running a fig 10 points higher than the SA Derby. Ultimately, I concluded he improved at least 8 points for a 103. It seems like Beyer is more attached to that 95 fig and doesn't feel as comfortable in hypothesizing that the 95 fig was largely the result of a moderate early pace and that IHA has the ability of running considerable faster.

Without reading Beyer's article and his justification, my guess is that the 101 figure also relied heavily on the finishing positions of Liaiason and Rousing Sermon. Team Beyer has basically concluded that Liaison and Rousing Sermon are incapable of running higher than a 92.

If, when making the Derby fig, you can assume that Liaison and RS ran the same race in the Derby that they have run repeatedly in the past(when running their best), then you're well on your way to making the winning fig for IHA.

In the 3 previous races that Liaison completed in which he ran against RS, he finished ahead of him each time, with the margin usually fairly close. Well, in the Derby Liaison finished 6th, a little in front of RS in 8th. The result can lead one to conclude that those 2 horses ran their typical "good" race, which for Liaison is a 91, and a few points lower for RS.

If Liaison ran a 91, and he was beaten 7 lengths by IHA, and 7 lengths at 10 furlongs translates into 10 Beyer points, then I'll Have Another gets a 101.

But given that Baffert swore that Liaison did not like Santa Anita(just like he swore Prayer for Relief didn't like SA and that horse just ran a sharp 2nd in the Mervyn LeRoy when moved over to Hollywood), isn't it more likely that Liaison actually ran faster in the Derby than he would at a track he didn't like(Santa Anita) or when he was a 2 year old(at Hollywood)?

re: Ky Oaks and Derby Picks

GunBow — Tue, 08 May 2012 01:10:44 GMT

The top 6 Derby finishers were Cali, Cali, Kentucky synth, Kentucky synth, Cali, Cali. Then in 7th it was the conventional dirt Easterner, Union Rags, and in 8th another Cali.

And of the 5 Cali horses in the top 8, 4 of them had won on synth. I'll Have Another broke his maiden at Hollywood, Creative Cause also broke his maiden at Hollywood and won a gr.2 at Del Mar(with IHA 2nd), Liaison won the CashCall Futurity and Real Quiet at Hollywood, and Rousing Sermon broke his maiden at Hollywood. Only Bodemeister from the Cali contingent had never won (or even run) on synth.

Add it up, and that's 6 of the top 8 that had won on synth. Maybe trainers are doing better jobs preparing their horses for the different surfaces, perhaps trainers are more knowledgable about which of their dirt horses can run on synth(and vice versa), and/or maybe the fact certain horses can run well on both dirt and synth signals a certain level of quality that translates to big races.

I think the balance of synth and dirt races we have right now is fairly good. I think California went overboard mandating every track go synth, and I like that we now have dirt at Santa Anita, Poly at Del Mar, and the "bridge" Cushion surface at Hollywood(note that all 4 Cali horses in the top 8 at the Derby that had won on synth won at Hollywood). There is also the Fairplex meet run on dirt. Now, soCal more closely resembles Kentucky, which has the Churchill dirt, Keeneland and Turfway synth, and Ellis Park dirt.

It seems like the anger at synths has faded some, and that players are more comfortable playing circuits with synth races as long as ALL the maintrack races on the circuit aren't synth.

re: Ky Oaks and Derby Picks

skyfire — Tue, 08 May 2012 00:17:21 GMT

Bode ran awesome, and I agree with Bob Baffert: Mike Smith rode a great race. I think he is like Bold Ruler or Dr. Fager: let him run free. I don't see how he loses the Preakness if Baffert enters him.

re: Ky Oaks and Derby Picks

Householder — Tue, 08 May 2012 00:01:39 GMT

I like Candy. Creative Cause...I knew he would get nailed by some turf/synthetic type. The blinks on, the blinks off, he has some issues. He may be better suited for the turf. His female line way back ran 1 3/4 turf marathons.

re: Ky Oaks and Derby Picks

Householder — Mon, 07 May 2012 23:51:05 GMT

Andy Beyers discounted Seattle Slew's prefect record coming into the Derby as a fluke.

Other than the slop (and subsequent 5 month layoff...so something went wrong) show me a bad race the winner has ran. He broke his maiden and then went straight into a stakes (Best Pal) on synthetics and was a length and a half away from Creative Cause. He then beats Creative Cause after the later disposes of Bodemeister in the San Felipe. Put Liason (In front of Union Rags at 6th) and Rousing Sermon, behind (Union Rags at 8)in the Santa Anita Derby and you have a pretty classy horse in I'll Have Another.

He was on the vet list in California, did most of his morning works before shipping...certainly some variables driving the price up.

Just hope you had him at Future Book 200-1 before the RB Lewis 43-1 shocker.

re: Ky Oaks and Derby Picks

Jason Shandler — Mon, 07 May 2012 23:10:46 GMT

Rusty: Most of my tickets were tied up with Summer Applause because I bet her in p3 and 4s early in the day. So that hurt. But I still made good $ on Friday. Saturday was a different story.

re: Ky Oaks and Derby Picks

furlongs — Mon, 07 May 2012 22:15:11 GMT

Man I love reading all these post on these boards without DRAYNAY!! Life is good!

re: Ky Oaks and Derby Picks

Rolling Thundar — Mon, 07 May 2012 22:00:45 GMT

Hey, What about Me. ( The Rookie ) handicapper. I was posting my pick on the other blogs, yall can look it up. And Yep....I'm still Having Another........

What a fantastic Sport.

re: Ky Oaks and Derby Picks

Age of Reason — Mon, 07 May 2012 21:26:53 GMT

Mixed results for yours truly at the Derby. I did have I'll Have Another to win, but Gemologist and Take Charge Indy 2nd and 3rd respectively (my picks before the race posted on Haskin's last blog). Oh well; but this looked like such a well-matched race I was happy to get one of the top three in any order, congratulations to all who also scored.

If anyone needs some comic relief, go to a certain other site and read an article whose title reads something along the lines of "Bodemeister's Derby performance greatest in history". Obviously I'm using exaggeration for rhetorical effect, and I mean no disrespect to that tremendous horse. Also I can't name the site or the author for fear of lawsuits from the wonderful folks at DRF and Andy Beyer. It was both pathetic and hysterical to watch the senile old man griping over sour grapes, and decrying this year's crop as incredibly weak after saying it was a very deep field pre-Derby, just because his horse didn't win (guess who must've had a huge bet on Bode? Draynay has more credibility!). I've never seen such pettiness from a so-called "professional journalist". Many thanks to the writers at Blood-Horse, who at least have the class to celebrate a deserving winner of America's greatest race!

re: Ky Oaks and Derby Picks

Rusty Weisner — Mon, 07 May 2012 21:06:08 GMT

California horses took four of the top six spots. Some people have to eat crow here. I'm from the East Coast, but I've never understood the weird regional prejudices some people toss around. Admittedly, the track played like Santa Anita, but the results of the preps pointed towards who the best horses were.