Post Derby 138 Thoughts

re: Post Derby 138 Thoughts

Ted from LA — Wed, 23 May 2012 21:30:20 GMT

The final word.

re: Post Derby 138 Thoughts

El Kabong — Tue, 15 May 2012 16:53:10 GMT

Matthew W,

That Oaks/Derby Double is a great play if you strongly believe in your Derby Horse. You have the results of the first half of the bet by Derby day so you know what you'll win if your horse does win, even if all your other bets fail-exotics- on Derby day. Unfortunately in 2010, all I got back was a $20 O/D double, Blind Luck to Super Saver. I came up with an idea that Derby. Most of my tickets had super saver winning. Then, I singled Lookin at Lucky 2,3,4 on all my tri/super tickets. I was certain he would hit the board and I even had him beating Super Saver on a few back ups. My plan went up in smoke when Lucky was so unlucky at the start. Good strategy that would have worked if lucky had gotten just a little better trip. He did finish 6th and of course won the Preakness. But I had my O/D double so I didn't have to hate myself for that strategy. This is a tough game. You can be so right, and get nothing for it. Betting is the tougher half of handicapping and cashing.

re: Post Derby 138 Thoughts

JayJay — Mon, 14 May 2012 16:32:47 GMT

The Rock : Good luck on the treatment and looking forward to your posts after. Who's your pick for the Preakness ?

trackjack : The Moss' paid $60K for Zenyatta because she didn't look that good and nobody wanted her ;)

re: Post Derby 138 Thoughts

JayJay — Mon, 14 May 2012 16:00:11 GMT

Sylvester : I'd respond to your Zenyatta bashing but you might take offense at the truth and the last thing I want to read on here is a grown man whining lol. It seems other than whining, you post nothing but zenyatta bashing. Who was your pick for the Derby ? Yes, the Kentucky Derby just ran, did you know that ? Preakness, which is the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown is coming up next week. You aware of that ? How about you tell us who your pick is to win the Preakness and why ?

What about you Draynay ? Any sure winner from you ? Give it a rest with the Zenyatta bashing, she WON (the HOTY) and there's NOTHING you can do about it lol.

re: Post Derby 138 Thoughts

Footlick — Mon, 14 May 2012 15:12:08 GMT

Female turf runners compete against males more often than female dirt/ synthetic runners. And on dirt/ synthetics, female sprinters run against males much more often that female routers. You guys can tear down Zenyatta all you want. Havre de Grace's 4th place finish should have told you how difficult a BCC is to win. That she won one on synthetic and narrowly lost one on dirt is all that you need to know about Zenyatta's talent. Until another American filly/mare surpasses that, she still will be considered one of the greats. And that must really irk Dray an Sylvester, who expend so much energy tearing her down as much as they can.

As for as Black Caviar, she has been nothing short of brilliant and wish them the best at Ascot.

re: Post Derby 138 Thoughts

Footlick — Mon, 14 May 2012 14:17:05 GMT

Paula- well said.

re: Post Derby 138 Thoughts

Mary Zinke — Mon, 14 May 2012 04:01:46 GMT

I thought these Shandler blogs were Queen-proof. I think it's unfair to the expectant mom to add to her burden by placing her in a glass stall. That reminds me, has B's E's newest horse racing fan arrived yet? Best wishes to the bundle of joy and family. Good luck to champion Black Caviar at Ascot.

re: Post Derby 138 Thoughts

LAZMANICK — Mon, 14 May 2012 03:56:34 GMT

Draynay

Sorry if I offended you. We all know that when it comes to horses you know what you're talking about. You're the best litle feller.

re: Post Derby 138 Thoughts

trackjack — Mon, 14 May 2012 03:35:07 GMT

Jason,

We're trying to have an intelligent discussion about post Derby thoughts and it seems we may be getting back to the Blame/Zenyatta blame game which seems to be evolving into a Zenyatta/Black Caviar battle. This blog is going to the dogs.

Let's get back to reality:

Rachel Alexandra's foal is better looking than Zenyatta's foal and will win the Triple Crown in 2015.

You can all thank me later.

Coldfacts:

Alpha's leg scrapes and subsequent infection were not caused from his rough trip in the Wood. He was attacked by a couple of schnauzers when he got back to his stall.

re: Post Derby 138 Thoughts

The Rock — Mon, 14 May 2012 02:53:49 GMT

Footlick, Linda in Texas, Mz, Carlos in Cali (Go Giants), El Kabong, Laz, Dray, trackjack, Tiznowbaby, jay jay, 2:24, Rusty Weisner, Johnny, Skip, thomas, Geronimo123, Sylvester, Paula Higgins, Gunbow, Steve from St. Louis, Age of Reason, Bohemiastable, and last but not least.... Jason Shandler,

Thank you all for the well wishes, positive vibes and the personal stories you shared with the rest of the blog. My apologies for the late response. I wish you all the very best.

Linda, I'm staying on a low sodium diet for now, and eating foods I don't usually eat. It's different, but so far so good. My condolences on what you and your family had to go through.

El Kabong, great derby score. At least you got to keep some of your winnings after taxes.

Age of Reason, wow, four bouts with lymphoma over 20 years... Its safe to say that's a strong woman you've got there. My very best to you and your family.

Bohemiastable, All the best wishes to that 5 year old having a smile on his face. No child should ever have to suffer through that. We due tend to lose ourselves in the moment with this game. I'm definitely a victim to it at times. It's funny though. I wonder where this game would be without people like us. All the best to you and those you are connected with.

Geronimo123, that's great news about your mother. I hope she never has to go through such a thing ever again. Best wishes that the docs were able to get 100% of that cancer out of her. I enjoy your passion for the game. Keep it up.

Draynay, just reading your posts tells me how positive of an outlook you have on life and everything in it...even though you have an unorthodox of displaying it. lol. We all have our opinions and who knows where this or any blog would be without people like you. All the best to you my friend.

If I missed anyone I'm very sorry but I hope I didn't. If I don't post before the Preakness (5 straight days of treatment resumes 5/17) good luck to all on your plays. Preliminary play is IHA, Bodemeister hammer exacta box. Just like Ventura & Informed Decision in the 09' F&M Sprint. With all the money in the pool, I hope I at least get the parlay payoff for those two. I really can't find a danger for those two except for Went The Day Well. I saw his run in the Derby and he had tons of trouble. But his numbers are still below the top two.

May the horse be with you all!

re: Post Derby 138 Thoughts

Paula Higgins — Mon, 14 May 2012 02:28:54 GMT

Draynay, stop. I like Black Caviar and have a ton of respect for her and we all know how I feel about Zenyatta. My issue is this: I have a hard time taking anyone seriously who tries to raise one horse up by tearing another one down, no matter how subtle they think they are about it. Let it go. No matter how hard you, Sylvester and Jason rail about Zenyatta, her reputation will survive anything said on this blog.

re: Post Derby 138 Thoughts

Coldfacts — Mon, 14 May 2012 00:43:20 GMT

Johnny,

Your repetition syndrome cannot be addressed in this forum. There are numerous adjectives that can be used emphasize the points you wish to make. My selection in the Derby was Alpha he finished 12th. If you read most of my post you would have been alerted to this fact. I defended Done Talking against unreasonable ridicule because I made a lot of money off his IL Derby victory. There are enough comics supporting Mr. Shandler your ambitions should not be to eclipse them.

re: Post Derby 138 Thoughts

Draynay — Sun, 13 May 2012 21:23:22 GMT

Black Caviar has faced the very best turf horses and mostly in OPEN company. Comparing her to another mare that rarely raced in open company is silly and distance doesn't matter. The California horse never won at 1 1/2 and her record at 1 1/4 wasn't perfect either. Winning sprint after sprint is harder because a missed start can mean disaster. You are seeing something special and something you will never see again. Black Caviar is the greatest mare any of us have seen.

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Johnny — Sun, 13 May 2012 21:11:58 GMT

Coldfacts:

Really?

BLAH BLAH BLAH Done Talking..

BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH Done Talking...

BLAH BLAH BLAH Done Talking..

BLAH BLAH BLAH DONE TALKING...

BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH...

14th I believe

re: Post Derby 138 Thoughts

Paula Higgins — Sun, 13 May 2012 17:56:04 GMT

JayJay and Lazmannick, good posts. Jason, GRRRRRRRRRRRR. If you ask the Aussies themselves who they think is better, Sunline or Black Caviar, many will tell you Sunline. I think Black Caviar is capable of winning at somewhat longer distances but I don't think we will ever see that happen. I bet they retire her after Ascot. She would never have beaten Zenyatta at 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 and Zenyatta would never have beaten her at 5-7 furlongs. But in my book, the classic distance is the trump card. The greatest male sprinter of all time would never be considered greater than Secretariat, Man O' War or Sea The Stars. Pedigree Ann, I agree that very good or great females can beat good males. If you put two equally great horses, male and female in the same race, I think the male wins the majority of the time. Having said that, I do not think Blame was greater than Zenyatta, not by a longshot. He was a very good horse, that got the trip from horse heaven, to beat a truly great horse.

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Coldfacts — Sun, 13 May 2012 16:40:41 GMT

“After the race he was fine,” trainer Todd Pletcher said. “We sent him to WinStar as planned to give him a week off and then prepare for the Belmont (gr. I). But then he came up lame in his left front and diagnostics revealed a foot bruise. He’s making good progress and is 50% better today than he was yesterday."

The above extract from Pedigree Ann (12 May 2012 9:45 AM) post has validated what I highlighted in just about every post I made about Gemologist. I saw the colt for the first time in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. What immediately captured my attention was what I subsequently described as a flopping front left. I posted that the colt appeared to have serious issues in this area and his long term soundness was in question. I was not surprised that subsequent to the KJCS he went off the radar. When he returned to the races at Gulfstream Park his action was no different in spite of his impressive victory. After his Wood Victory I advised my sparring partner Ranagulzion that the 10F of the Derby would not be kind to a colt his size with s defective running style.

Subsequent to the Derby it was discovered that he was lame on his flopping front left? Why I am not surprised? Did Mr. Pletcher not see what was blatantly obvious? This colt will be retired shortly and that will be a wise decision. Based on his sized he will not hold up to racing.

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Ted from LA — Sun, 13 May 2012 15:34:51 GMT

Smoking Baby I am the biggest schnauzer lover you will ever know. I donate to and help out the local dog shelter and have for years.

Draynay 12 May 2012 12:27 PM

Dray, it is obvious you love your schnauzer from this photo. Long time.

re: Post Derby 138 Thoughts

Jason Shandler — Sun, 13 May 2012 15:14:31 GMT

I thought the discussion was about dogs, not rats?

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Pedigree Ann — Sun, 13 May 2012 12:02:44 GMT

Sylvester, Black Caviar has run in and won most of the top sprint races in Australia. All but two of her races have been in open company, i.e. versus all comers including males. As a 3yo filly, she was running with older males, just like the 3yo filly Sea Siren who won the G1 BTC Cup last Saturday. She is more like Allez France or Dahlia or Sunline or Makybe Diva, mares who rarely ran in races restricted to their sex. Personal Ensign only ran one race versus the guys.

We are the only country where it is believed that the best fillies and mares can't compete in open company. An absurdity.

re: Post Derby 138 Thoughts

LAZMANICK — Sun, 13 May 2012 06:55:36 GMT

Draynay and Sylvester

It must really gall both of you when you look at the Derby chart and discover, to your horror I would imagine, that of the first six finishers, four were Cali horses and two were Poly specialists (that like the greatest mare ever can run on dirt too).

Both of you can also try and figure out just how tuff Black Caviar’s latest group of push overs was. Every one of them was coming out of either a listed stake or a G3 stakes and only two won their last races. In fact the field was so over matched that based on North America’s 269K bet to win, Black Caviar’s odds were 5 cents to the buck while every other one of her competitors was 99-1 on the board, ranging in actual odds from 161 to 1 to 293 to 1.

You’re right about one thing though Sylvester. Personal Ensign was a great mare, easily the second best filly or mare behind Zenyatta, going all the way back to Ruffian, with Go For Wand and Lady’s Secret battling it out with Melair for third best.

re: Post Derby 138 Thoughts

Paula Higgins — Sun, 13 May 2012 03:55:31 GMT

Draynay, I totally agree with you about schnauzers. I have had 4. They are a wonderful, loyal, loving and intelligent breed of dog. Our Ralphy is 14 years and 3 months. As for Black Caviar she is a truly great horse. It will be interesting to see what she does at Ascot. Too bad she will never meet Frankel. That would be a race for the ages. Black Caviar is not the greatest older mare ever. If she won 21 races at the longer distances, or even won some of her races at the longer distances, you could make that case. But she is a sprinter. The greatest older mare ever resides at Lane's End.

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JayJay — Sun, 13 May 2012 03:25:19 GMT

I'm looking forward to the Zen and RA babies. I think one of their babies will be the one to break the drought, at least I hope so. Zenyatta has the foundation to keep running all day and to run for years, not just one year. I specially like the Tapit baby as that will put a little bit of speed into her baby. I'm hoping he takes after her mom, the greatest mare that ever raced. I doubt any mare will be able to do what she's done unless it's her baby :) No horse (m or f) has come close to her records and I don't think any one will. Her record will stand the test of time and I'm sure we'll all be blogging about it in our afterlives. I laugh at the haters, because of their ignorance, specially the ones that pretends to know anything about horseracing. :)

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Sylvester — Sun, 13 May 2012 01:51:33 GMT

Correct you are Draynay. Black Caviar is absolutely phenomenal. Imagine a mare winning 21 races in a row AND shipping to different venues. Easily the best older mare since Personal Ensign.

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Smoking Baby — Sun, 13 May 2012 01:31:09 GMT

Draynay. (quoting Dumb & Dumber) Just when I think you can't be any dumber.....You go and pull something like this......AND TOTALLY REDEEM YOURSELF!!! And yes, Black Cavier is all that. Can't wait until Royal Ascot. I do wonder if everyone would still like the exact same mare if she was from California ("let's see her win on the dirt, let's see her win around two turns, etc.).

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JayJay — Sat, 12 May 2012 18:30:50 GMT

Skip : I'm not a Todd Pletcher defender, I think he's a good trainer, not great but good. He has the numbers because he gets good horses. I've said it before, he can't train all of them with focus so his team are probably the ones that does all the work. He focuses on the horses that's doing well, a good example is El Padrino. Prior to the Wood, EP was his "horse", he failed to fire in the FD and Gem wins the Wood. Guess what, Gem became his "horse". I don't think EP was prepared well for the Derby and I think he was overconfident on Gem. I still think it would've helped a lot if Gem and EP were given the chance to work on the CD track and just get more familiar with the derby atmosphere. I think Barclay Tagg could have done a better job preparing Gemologist or EP for the derby because he would only have one derby horse to focus on. It's the price TP pays for getting all the good horses in the east coast.

Just like you though, it's just my opinion.