A Lot on the Line In The Lexington

re: A Lot on the Line In The Lexington

George — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 21:50:46 GMT

Racing Tomcito in the Lexington was not a smart move. That owner is being poorly advised. Big Brown appears like he will crush in the Derby.

re: A Lot on the Line In The Lexington

Johnny — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 14:05:07 GMT

About three weeks before winning the Santa Anita Derby over the boys by 7 1/2 lengths, Winning Colors romped in the Santa Anita Oaks by 8 lengths over her own gender. If I remember correctly, the connections said in the KY Derby she would be going to the front, as was her style; and Winning Colors got the job done.

Forty-Niner, a superb horse in his own right, was kept too far back too early, as you probably alluded to, and I think this was due to concern about his distance capabilities. As we all know, Forty Niner closed fast but was late. And Risen Star had a wide trip, but rallied well to finish third.

That Run for the Roses was meant for a filly. We will always have great moments in racing, moments that will become great memoriesl and no two are alike.

re: A Lot on the Line In The Lexington

Householder — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 00:00:47 GMT

Winning Colors ran off in the Santa Anita Derby winning if I can recall by a good 10 lengths. It took some racing luck, a poorly timed ride by the second place finisher, and every breath to get her home first at Churchill. It is simply this difficult. Good memories which will probably never be duplicated.

re: A Lot on the Line In The Lexington

Bryce Be Quick — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 16:57:34 GMT

Billy D.-- sure do remember poor Athea in 1984-- lead for 7 furlongs only to back up to 19th down the stretch. I think the race all but broke her-- did she ever win again in her career? I don't think so. Also recall, however, D. Wayne Lukas ran her off of just two weeks rest after two hard races in Arkansas, and vowed if he ever got another she would come in rested-- and that's exactly what he did with Winning Colors four years later. I am probably showing my turf roots and European bias, but I think if you have the right girl in the right place, you owe her the shot. Pletcher did that with a fresh girl against a comparatively worn down field of favorites in the Belmont, and I am not sure this Derby field doesn't set up nicely for Eight Belles. Understand your point about leaving money on the table at the Oaks, but if you got a girl ready to fire against the boys and she has earned her shot, give her the shot. By the way, Lukas' history with the girls seemingly instructive-- I always thought it was his quarter horse background which helped contribute to his t-bred filly success, seeing how in quarter horse racxing the girls and boys routinely compete, albeit over shorter distances. Does also give him a unique perspective as how to train a filly to lengthen out, one further suspects. Does Hard Spun's former trainer harbor the same filly facilities and sensibities?

re: A Lot on the Line In The Lexington

Bryce be Quick — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 16:29:51 GMT

Jason-- many thanks. I think I may have only spotted Adriano from afar while galloping across an adjacent field at Fair Hill, so I defer to your sense as to his muscle/size/confirmation. Also, maybe my chart wrong, but among the filles, I have Proud Spell as the May (13th) foal, with Eight Belles foaled on 2/23/05. In my estimation, Eight Belles sure looks the part and seems ready to run with the Boys-- second coming of D. Wayne Lukas' huge gray daugher of Caro, Winning Colors, 1988? Proud Spell to make it two filles in the field for what, the eighth time in Derby history (of course, six of the previous seven came before WW II)?

re: A Lot on the Line In The Lexington

Billy D. — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 16:05:33 GMT

Thanks for the list "Bryce." I agree with "Householder" that the Lexington is an insignificant prep for the Derby as most serious contenders have already run their last major prep. I seriously doubt that the fillies should run in the Derby when there's so much money on the table in the Oaks the day before. I think the wise decision is to run the fillies in the Oaks instead of rushing them. Remember Althea? It's not like either one of them defeated the boys in a major prep in dominating fashion. I'm not saying I wouldn't like to see another Genuine Risk or Regret however this isn't the year. I'd love to see Bob Black Jack get in the field, as he figures into my superfecta ticket on Derby day.

re: A Lot on the Line In The Lexington

Jason Shandler — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 14:27:42 GMT

Bryce: I like Visionaire. Don't love him, but I think he's one to consider. As for Eight Belles, she may be a mid-may foal, as you say, but she is much more physically imposing than Adriano, who is smallish and needs to gain weight.

re: A Lot on the Line In The Lexington

Householder — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 05:16:09 GMT

The Lexington is like 1 for 19 in producing a Derby Winner. This race is insignificant.

re: A Lot on the Line In The Lexington

Billy D. — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 18:52:36 GMT

As for Dennis of Cork's super workout at Churchill, I don't think it means a thing. I thought Big truck was going to run a monster race in the Bluegrass too after his blazing workout. I don't think you can rely too much on workouts. Workouts may be an indicator of fitness but do not determine how well they'll run.

re: A Lot on the Line In The Lexington

Ranagulzion — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 18:33:24 GMT

The so called Keenland derby preps (Blue Grass & Lexington) are a farse. Luckily for Todd Pletcher they helped him to get into the Derby but the reality of more than a decade of Blue Grass flops will strike again on may 3. On breeding Monba should enjoy Churchill downs more than the other Pletcher inmates but i think he will be outclassed. With War Pass out due to injury the pace scenario will make Big Brown a cinch for the kentucky Derby. It should be an exciting race for the minor placings.

re: A Lot on the Line In The Lexington

Bryce Be Quick — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 14:11:47 GMT

Jason: by my calculus, one defection needed to get Mr. Matz and a deserving Visionaire in the field--he sits at No. 21 in graded earnings. Matz has done a wonderful job stretching this horse out to classic distances-- based on pedigree, this horse should be a miler, mile and a sixteenth at most? Matz is simply spectacular and a superlative horsemen. Not sure many fully appreciate the job he has done with Visionaire-- Barry Erwin and Team Valor certainly knew what they were doing when they had Matz train this guy. Not wishing anyone else ill-will, but don't you think Visionaire Derby-worthy? No, not to win, but would sure make an interesting play in the exotics, yes or no?

re: A Lot on the Line In The Lexington

Bryce Be Quick — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 13:46:46 GMT

Billy D.- I have it as follows:

1- Pyro

2- Proud Spell(F)

3- Tale of Ekati

4- Colonel John

5- Gayego

6- Big Brown

7- Z Humor

8- Monba

9- Court Vision

10-Z Fortune

11-Adriano

12-Recapturetheglory

13-Smooth Air

14-Salute the Sarge

15-Cool Coal Man

16-Anak Nakal

17-Eight Belles (F)

18-Cowboy Cal

19-Massive Drama

20-Behindatthebar

21-Visionaire

22-Big Truck

23-Bob Black Jack

24-Denis of Cork

25- Nalo Najib

26-Indian Sun

27-Tomcito

28-My Pal Charlie

29-El Gato Malo

30-Hey Byrn

Two filles in the top 20, and Pletcher, on the outside looking in not that long ago, potentially looking at three in the starting gate. Jason-- your well-placed knock on Adriano and his late May foaling date, doesn't that hold as well for Mr. Jones' girl, Proud Spell? Seem to recall she arrived on 05/15/05. Love her pedigree, regardless, but really ready to run with the boys?

re: A Lot on the Line In The Lexington

dotcom — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 02:41:30 GMT

looks like bob black jack and denis of cork will not get in barring any injuries...Visionaire will be the last horse to draw in as of today this is even assuming massive drama declines but he is still under consideration officially

re: A Lot on the Line In The Lexington

Billy D. — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 18:40:46 GMT

With War Pass's defection, is there anywhere on here where I could see an updated top 25 horses based on earnings to get into the Dery field? I can't find it. Thanks

re: A Lot on the Line In The Lexington

Johnny — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 17:53:50 GMT

With War Pass out, Tomcito could become my new #1, depending on how he does today in the Lexington. If he wins, he'll really move forward and should only get better as the races get longer. I just hope two weeks prior to the Derby won't be too soon.

re: A Lot on the Line In The Lexington

Antman — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 04:08:28 GMT

My earlier post was about Court Vision. Not Col. John Here is a pick for tomorrow if anyone is interested. Royaldish in the 2nd at Hawthorn. S/b 4 or 5 to one. Good luck, not much going on in here.

re: A Lot on the Line In The Lexington

Matthew W — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 02:37:06 GMT

REALLY would be a shame if Bob Black Jack Doesn't draw in---as a 2yo he ran almost a full second faster that the gr 2 Malibu for soon to be 4yos---in other words, he has talent and is still learning and adjusting (adding blinkers), having moved all over in SA Derby stretch and still RIGHT there.....he needs to draw IN--or that's a shame.....

re: A Lot on the Line In The Lexington

Toughcookie — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 00:01:34 GMT

I like Racecar Rhapsody to win

"The Lexington".There should be

a fast pace in the race which

should benefit his running style.

He definitely needed his last race

and came up a little short.Being

lightly raced should also benefit

the horse if they decide to run in

"The Derby" with only two weeks of

rest.

re: A Lot on the Line In The Lexington

shlomo — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 18:07:12 GMT

If BIG TRUCK gets in (LOOK OUT)

re: A Lot on the Line In The Lexington

Antman — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 14:07:33 GMT

Tomcito, no chance, was beaten by as far as you can hit your driver off the tee box and there racing style is quite different over there, he can last the distance becuase they only run the last 2 furlongs. Just my opinion, Less than 2 weeks until the draw. What's everyone thoughts on Col. John work yesterday, a little crazy to try something right before the derby but he seemed to wake him up. 46 and change over a second faster than anyone breezing? Wow Could be the first time I bet a West Coast to win.

re: A Lot on the Line In The Lexington

CountFleet 43 — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 13:24:26 GMT

Tomcito & Atoned will run 1--2, IMHO. Tomcito is getting better every day & He had a great work out of the gate Tuesday AM. I also believe that he will run BIG in the derby on May 3rd....

re: A Lot on the Line In The Lexington

dotcom — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 06:26:46 GMT

Zito should do War Pass a favor and skip the Derby...the race will end any hope of him having a good 3yo campaign with him. I just dont see him around anywhere past the top of the stretch...As for Pyro, good luck off that last effort...my how one month changes everything...BB is a freak...my choice to beat him is recapturetheglory or gayego but they likely will be battling for 2nd...BB is a monster mark my words, that florida derby from pp12 was amazing! no horse won from pp11 or pp12 the entire meet going 2 turns...The lexindton is Atoned's race to loose, look for Tomcito to close the gap late and put them both in the derby ending the dreams of bob black jack and denis of cork

re: A Lot on the Line In The Lexington

Laura in Texas — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 03:52:16 GMT

Draynay,

I am hoping the same thing. This just may be the "dark horse" that most will toss just because of where he has been running. I will definately have him on all my tickets!

re: A Lot on the Line In The Lexington

predict — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 01:24:40 GMT

There is a name that makes me nervous about any race, still to this day, when it is a prep race for the Kentucky Derby. It isn't a horse's name, its a trainer. D Wayne Lucas sends Red Sandy out in the Lexington. I know I shouldn't worry about this horse, but I can't help it, and will include him on my tickets. Now that's crazy, or is it?

re: A Lot on the Line In The Lexington

Matthew W — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 01:15:39 GMT

Would be a shame if Visionaire doesn't get in---wonder why they didn't stay in NY for the Wood (and it's pace collaspe)----he finished out so well in the Gotham, then they go down to Keeneland---does he have sore shins/feet or is poly that much less taxing on your horse that you'd take a bad post, which Matz did......I think he has a shot in the Derby---I think Tomcito does not.....