A Fine Line Between Confidence and Arrogance

re: A Fine Line Between Confidence and Arrogance

draynay — Sat, 03 May 2008 23:32:15 GMT

Big Brown wins big...its no surprise... his talent was obvious but in this game people try to invent stats. You can't win from the 20 gate, you can't win on 3 starts, etc... The fact is many of you simply did not look at what was right in front of you... horses do not run against history they run against other horses in the race!

And for all of you that thought Cali horses were this...and that... where did they finish? Col John ? Gayego? BBJ ? The Santa Anita Derby told you all you needed to know when Col. John had to struggle to beat Coast Guard. Now on the the Preakness.... anyone betting Cali horses ???

re: A Fine Line Between Confidence and Arrogance

Ranagulzion — Sat, 03 May 2008 03:03:25 GMT

The Kentucky Derby is a horse race. Resentment towards Big Brown's trainer Richard Dutrow makes no sense whatsoever in trying to forecast the outcome. Big Brown is such a phenomenal colt that he could break from the parking lot as Mike Battaglia once said about former grass champion Lure in the Breeder's cup, and still win "pulling a train." Oh boy it will be interesting to read Jason et al on the blog after the event. Z Humor is an interesting outsider as he is a handsome colt and very well bred and has been improving steadily in his prep races (under the radar). He is a very seasoned campaigner and looks like the sort that could suddenly break out in the Derby at very long odds (for a minor place of course).

re: A Fine Line Between Confidence and Arrogance

Ho vinto — Fri, 02 May 2008 11:51:46 GMT

Dutrow your offensive arrogance is coming back to bite you in the a**. And I'm betting its going to be Pyro's teeth that take a piece out of you. You know the saying-what goes around- comes around.

re: A Fine Line Between Confidence and Arrogance

Slewfan — Thu, 01 May 2008 18:00:12 GMT

I think Dutrow has been on a high since St. Liam and just hasn't come down yet, then combined with the success he had in Dubai it's probably gone to his head a little. He has to show confidence in his horse, it's the right thing to do when you're a trainer, especially if you want your employer to continue sending you good stock to train. Yes, he is a bit arrogant, but let's just see what happens on Saturday. I have a feeling that by Sunday, he will be silenced. It's happend before, recently too, remember Bellamy Road. I can't stand Nick Zito.

Wasn't Bellamy Road supposed to be another Secretariat as well.?????

re: A Fine Line Between Confidence and Arrogance

draynay — Thu, 01 May 2008 15:15:07 GMT

Get ready for a Spend A Buck type Derby with Big Brown going wire to wire. Your never even going to see your horse on TV it will be the Big Brown show. Now... on to the Preakness!

re: A Fine Line Between Confidence and Arrogance

Householder — Thu, 01 May 2008 05:02:14 GMT

22.25, 44.86, 109.25, 135, 159.97...with Songandaprayer setting the early speed...Monarchos outrun for the first 6 furlongs running 5 wide...goes 5 abreast on the second turn makes up 15 lengths and wins going away. Point Given gets torched and Monarchos never wins again. How and what to do against BBJ may be key. Do you let him loose with an easy lead possibly controlling the pace and wait for him to back up? Do you put BB right off him trying to get him to rate for the first time? I also think a lot has been made about the synthetics and Col John. What the CA people know is that Del Mar is different (deeper/slower) than Hollywood, which is different from Santa Anita. John shipped and did well at all 3. BBJ capable of 42 halfs on dirt, poly, sawdust, or jello. The Santa Anita Derby has and will continue to be a factor in the KY Derby.

re: A Fine Line Between Confidence and Arrogance

Johnny — Thu, 01 May 2008 04:10:19 GMT

Cowboy Cal and Gayego are near the outside and they can move pretty quickly to. Looks like a lot of speed lumped together.

re: A Fine Line Between Confidence and Arrogance

Johnny — Thu, 01 May 2008 03:27:32 GMT

Here's one possible scenario:

With Big Brown in 20 and Recapturetheglory in 18, they are going to have to break very fast to clear the rest of the field and it's not simply a matter of taking the lead, which they probably can't, but merely to try dropping in to save ground. Two years ago, Brother Derek, a pretty fast frontrunner in his own right, couldn't do it from the 18-hole. If they can get clear, Big Brown and Recapturetheglory's problems are just beginning. They're going to have to chase Bob Black Jack. I know they might try to rate this horse a little, but if he's alone on the lead, he might wing it. Then the others have to contend with running down a world class sprinter, and even if they do, how much is it going to take out of them? On paper, Big Brown should put away Recapturetheglory, but horses are running this race on dirt, not paper. I can see a 6-furlong time of 1:08.4 or something around there.

If this turns into any kind of pace meltdown, I see Colonel John, Pyro, and hopefully Court Vision ready to jump in. I have no clue how Eight Belles will finish, but she sure makes it interesting.

re: A Fine Line Between Confidence and Arrogance

Householder — Thu, 01 May 2008 00:41:10 GMT

I was close...BB draws the 20 post. Now what? Someone give me his strategy. Does he gun to the lead and hope to control the pace against BBJ? Can he possible get in on 19 horses before the first turn? Throw BB out and try to hit that $40,000 superfecta. You can always bet the favorite next year.

re: A Fine Line Between Confidence and Arrogance

draynay — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 13:45:33 GMT

Dutrow PR ? lol.. no just a handicapper that knows how to handicap. Many of you really did not watch the prep races...and the ones talking against Big Brown can't see what is right in front of them. You will be the same people ripping up your ticket claiming "I was going for value" The is NO value in ripping up a ticket. If Big Brown is not on your ticket you will not be cashing.

re: A Fine Line Between Confidence and Arrogance

Ho vinto — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 07:06:33 GMT

looks like dutrow is trying to back pedal out of what he said and he's right-if big brown wins, it will have had nothing to do with Dutrow. The only thing Dutrow accomplished was admitting to the public he doesn't follow the rules, he is a pathetic and degenerate gambler(which he also does illegally) and breaks the 420 illegal use law. Basically to sum things up, he has no place being involved in the sophisticated business of thoroughbred racing!

re: A Fine Line Between Confidence and Arrogance

redandblacksilks — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 21:44:39 GMT

Whether or not Big Brown can or will win the Derby remains to be seen. As to Dutrow's comments I am reminded of the old saying, "Better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than to open it and remove all doubt." Thus far Big Brown has not faced the "best" of the three year old crop. I personally feel that the field in the Florida Derby was relatively weak particularly in comparison to the field in the Blue Grass. Big Brown could be the best horse but now he has to prove it. Another contingent thinks that Colonel John is the best horse going in the Derby. Again, he could be. Many feel that Gayego winning the Arkansas Derby proves the superiority of Colonel John, however, I firmly believe that ZFortune would have won if not for a very wide trip. I also think that the Cash Call Futurity might lend some insight. Who was closing the fastest in that race?

re: A Fine Line Between Confidence and Arrogance

Householder — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 16:11:49 GMT

California will certainly influence the exotics. Leave em out at your own risk in preference of the 2nd place finisher of the LA Derby or the 4th place finisher of the Arkansas Derby. Even throw in the Lexington which is 1 for 19 or something in producing winner. We'll know when we get the posts. Speed could draw 1, 2, 3, and BB post 19 for all we know. BB may have to run a mile and a half on the front end.

re: A Fine Line Between Confidence and Arrogance

insider p — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 15:29:13 GMT

I don't understand why everyone is counting court vision out of the money after all isn't the colt part of IEAH team and trained by the ever silent Billy Mott.I actually think BIG BROWN and COURT VISION could run 1 2, CV has big late kick and has worked w/blinkers to keep him alittle closer to the pace.If the break goes well both these colts are ready to run their hearts out.

re: A Fine Line Between Confidence and Arrogance

Anthoney — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 15:20:24 GMT

Draynay is something to Dutrow that is for sure, or a 19 year old kid still learning the game, in time he will learn the lessons of horse racing, or go broke trying to learn them, nothing is certain in horse racing, he might get the last laugh on us if BB wins he can say I told you so, but I am guessing after the Derby and he don't hit the board we won't hear from him again, Pyro will impress, and D of C is in now and he will hit the exotics as a 30-1 bomber. Good Luck everyone.

re: A Fine Line Between Confidence and Arrogance

Slew.em.All — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 14:06:01 GMT

I'm beginning to think draynay MUST BE *** Dutrow Jr's "PR" guy....

re: A Fine Line Between Confidence and Arrogance

Johnny — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 14:03:46 GMT

Beyer figures or no Beyer figures, all I know is when the California horses switch to dirt, they win.

If you don't care for the California horses, fine, but don't lull yourself into a false sense of security because of their less than stellar figures.

re: A Fine Line Between Confidence and Arrogance

Householder — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 05:31:50 GMT

I was a little off. Point Given, after his 6 length victory in the SA Derby, was sent from the 17 post as the 9-5 favorite. Songandaprayer set some of the early fractions of 22 and 1/5, 44 and 4, 109 and 1, 135, and 159 and4/5s. Point Given was a little too close and got torched finishing 5th. Monarchos trailed at one point by some 15 lengths. Point Given later wins the Preakness and Belmont (running a similar 135 mile) by 12 lengths. Best horse...Jockey had previously won the Derby...Best trainer. That's racing folks. I think the Jockey of BB is going to need a whole lot more instructions then "Just don't fall off!"

re: A Fine Line Between Confidence and Arrogance

draynay — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 05:24:49 GMT

Come back after the race and let me know then how smart you are and where the Cali horses finished...lol...

Col. John can't even break a 100 Beyer and you think he is a contender...lol...right...didn't he get whipped 12 times to get up and beat COAST GUARD at the wire ?????

re: A Fine Line Between Confidence and Arrogance

Householder — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 04:56:11 GMT

As previously stated I think Col John will move up on the dirt. I also think that he will be a lot closer to the pace and love the fast work. A clean trip and he is right there somewhere. I hope they just send BBJ. Why mess with his strategy now. I say the horse goes another 1/8th. He may not win but he will be present and accounted for. Pace makes the race and we all saw the horror as Point Given and Gary Stevens sat a length off a 43 and change half. BBJ is certainly capable of this (perhaps not going 2 turns) but is the horse really going to know how far he is going? Most don't and this is why the stretch at CD is infamous. Call in nerves, bad riding, too many horses, too many bad horses...Welcome to the rodeo. May the best cow and cowboy win.

re: A Fine Line Between Confidence and Arrogance

Slew.em.All — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 02:18:28 GMT

Like I said draynay;BB has beaten a bunch of nobodys.Other than Smooth Air,Not One of his former opponents is in the Derby!..If you know Anything about horse racing,you'd have known that they "purposely" or"naturally" go slower during the early stages of route races on synthetic tracks.Thats why turf horses take to those surfaces..Also,Don't Worry.BBJ & Col.John will like the dirt-track just fine,like All the other horses from Santa Anita that shipped & WON at Oaklawn Park!He can go as fast as they let him,judging by his 6f record setting performance.I'm Not saying BBJ will win,but he sure as hell will pressure BB early,and Rtg will follow shortly after,along with Gayego & others.What?did they start selectively breeding for synthetic tracks 4yrs. ago?And horses cant transfer their synth. form onto dirt?nope!..It's been proven quite the opposite.Thats why Pyro will rebound Big-Time on his return to the Dirt track where he broke his maiden 1st time out!..You seem like quite the delusional type,or maybe you're a "newbie" to this Sport judging by your comments.Mainly stating that BB will set splits of :24 ALL the WAY around and win by 7,in 2:00min. flat! who are you?Nostrodamus?.Unless he's running in the Hambletonian,the splits are gonna' be faster than that!Much to his disadvantage!..just wait!.....

re: A Fine Line Between Confidence and Arrogance

Householder — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 00:20:00 GMT

Agreed draynay. Colonel John needs to pick it up in the early going. Hopefully the 57 and change work will instill this into him. He runs a 1:13 the field will be 10 ahead...a lot to make up in the Derby. They may also try to rate BBJ to get the distance. This may leave BB with a lone lead. I can see BBJ finishing ahead of Col John if John is shuffled back too far too early. The Derby is won and lost on a lot of things including the ability to stay out of traffic.

re: A Fine Line Between Confidence and Arrogance

dotcom — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 00:04:06 GMT

yeah slew i've seen a ton of them like BB flop but not this time buddy!! I was at gulfstream for both BB's starts and he exudes class paddock to post...a beast i tell you...take the 9-5 on derby day and make some money for 2nd and 3rd with recapturetheglory, visionaire and cool coal man....boy that 3-1 on derby futures pool 1 and 6-1 in pool 2 are looking pretty darn good ya think

re: A Fine Line Between Confidence and Arrogance

draynay — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 23:57:26 GMT

Slew... as usual you have no idea what you are talking about. The Florida Derby featured G1, G2, and G3 winners including Fierce Wind who had won 3 races in a row. But to suggest BBJ is a threat on dirt and at two turns is just silly. Maybe you should look at both his races this year at two turns and tell me about his blazing speed fractions.... I'll wait.......

re: A Fine Line Between Confidence and Arrogance

Slew.em.All — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 19:51:16 GMT

YESSSS! The 6f Recold Holder is IN the Derby!! Too bad BB,you're Done! He's gonna' have to GO from the gate and won't get a breathier..And Draynay thinks they're going to run a 47+ for the 1/2 mile?.ridiculous!..BB had a giant bullseye on his back before his Obnoxiuos trainer opened his beak.Now it's even visible from Mars!They won't let him get away from them,he will be pressured throughout!..Coupled with his inexperience,he's a complete throw-out in my book!Go ahead and bet him down,the pay-out prices should be Gi-normous!!..I didn't buy into BB's hype before(bias track,figs & weak opponenets),and I've ALWAYS thought Dutrow Jr. was an %$*@#& anyways!.Why is he talking"smack"on his 1st Derby trip?With Only 3 starts to BB's name to boot?.Thx,but I'll pass,I've seen WAY TOO MANY "like" him FLOP in the Derby!!