How Do You Bet the Derby?

re: How Do You Bet the Derby?

Magnumwideglide — Thu, 22 May 2008 15:34:15 GMT

I'm new to this game and went with Big Brown at the Derby and the Preakness. I haven't seen Draynot at the IRS window yet. Might be the same at Belmont.

re: How Do You Bet the Derby?

the wiz — Fri, 02 May 2008 14:49:55 GMT

The Wiz plans to bet against a heavy favorite from the far outside post. It's one thing to beat questionable stock on a speed favoring track from an outside post and it's a totally different ballgame when you try to do it against many high quality animals on a track at a distance that has never favored front runners. That being said Slew em All and I are on practicaly the same page. I'll include Colonel John, Monba, Court Vision, and Pyro in my exotics as well as sprinkle in Z Fortune, Visionaire, Denis of Cork, and Smooth Air. I'm not so sold on Adriano as I don't particularly like his dirt form. Gayego drew a terrible post and I intend to beat him from there. There is alot of value here and I intend to identify where it is and capture some of it on Saturday. How bout a Big Truck bomb on the bottom? One thing is for sure, it is going to be very interesting to see how it all unfolds. Sit back and enjoy the greatest spectacle in sports!!

re: How Do You Bet the Derby?

normajean81258 — Fri, 02 May 2008 03:34:59 GMT

I'm a typical "girl." I look at the sire & dam, the horses record, the jockey, the trainer and of course, color. Eight Belles is Gray as well as Monba. So there's one Tri~ Pyro~Monba & Eight Bells. Love for a filly to win....

Then I do about 2 more Tri's, one Super, a few exactas, some WP&S's. All with the ones I like the best, just mix them up a bit. I think for my Super though, I'll go with Pyro~Colonel John~Monba~Gayego... It's really a tough pick this year. I truly think 17 of these horses have a real good chance despite what the odds say right now. They will change so drastically,right up to post, that I will ignore them. And BTW~ I box everything!

GOOD LUCK Everyone!

re: How Do You Bet the Derby?

SlewFan — Thu, 01 May 2008 18:30:17 GMT

I like the way Denis Of Cork is looking these days. If he gets a decent trip he's right there as well as Smooth Air & Adriano. If Big Brown is a great one and can overcome his post position and get a clean trip, he wins...But that's only if he's great and I don't think so. That track in Florida favors speed, it's no secret. Very similiar to the way Keenland used to be before polytrac. I do not take the Florida Derby seriously, but I did take note of Smooth Air and what a determined little horse he is. He was so far off the pace that day it's a miracle he got up for second. There's money to be made on this derby, go place a bet and have fun. We can all rip apart Dutrow on Sunday.

re: How Do You Bet the Derby?

Slew.em.All — Thu, 01 May 2008 17:39:36 GMT

Box: Pyro,Adriano,C.C.M.,Col.John,Monba,&Court Vision for the Tris' & Supers'.It can get pricey,but it should pay well.These should get a swift pace to run at..They said they're sending BBJ from the gate(also adding blinkers on him;even more speed),so BB HAS TO GO,from the far outside..No matter what,BB is gonna' have to haul from the get-go,who said he can rate behind horses?Dutrow said "he doesn't like horses in front of him,he's too head strong".Thats why he chose the 20 hole,to "hopefully" get a clean break,if not,he's done!.That's why he's saying that "if" BB breaks with the field,he can't be beaten..I'll take that as meaning:BB "NEEDS" to be in front for his best chance,ala War Pass.And we seen what happened in the Tampa Derby!..Even "if" Browneye takes the lead,and BBJ breaks well,he will get pressured heavily by the 6f record holder,thats for damn sure!..Therefore: I'm banking on the horses who "should" get good,stalking,patient ride and Pounce on the tiring ponies coming into the far turn..

re: How Do You Bet the Derby?

Matthew W — Thu, 01 May 2008 17:02:18 GMT

Kent D will have to give Big Brown his head then reel him into a rating stride---not easy but he did just that in Florida.....can he do that again???---vs a TWENTY horse field??? If he does he probably wins, as Col John has yet to run that big---only The Col has given every indication he's ABOUT TO run that big----that's the race---will Big Brown establish position and survive the opening "send" and be able to gather himself in for the remaining mile.....and does Colonel John make it through the opening turn, where horses are coming in from the outside and horses get checked back---here'e hoping they both get dream trips and the racing world gets that stretch battle between two big time animals!!

re: How Do You Bet the Derby?

dooge — Thu, 01 May 2008 15:24:59 GMT

For Bob V. Wright,

Prado chose Adriano simply because he had ridden him first before Monba. That was exactly how his Agent explained it. Tale of Ekati was way to slow for his consideration. Jockey's have to tow a fine line when choosing one horse over another in respect for their relationship with Owners/Trainers. In this case there wasn't much seperating the horses so they did the safe thing and honored the connections they first rode for. If their would have been a big difference in talent then I would read more into it. Personally, I believe he chose the WRONG one to ride. We'll see come saturday.

re: How Do You Bet the Derby?

draynot — Thu, 01 May 2008 02:11:55 GMT

HaHaHaHa, Dutrow in all his arrogance just gave away any chance he had to win. I was going to bet the farm against the Big Ole Browneye but now I'll bet every red cent I can beg, borrow , or steal against him. What an obnoxious a** to be so arrogant as to choose the 20 hole. I can't wait to watch Brownie burn out in the stretch run if he makes it that far. I picture the Colonel, Pyro, Monba, Court Vision, Visionaire, and others thundering by him in the stretch as his owners strangle Dutrow in the stands. Saturday can't come soon enough for me. See you at the IRS window!!!!

re: How Do You Bet the Derby?

Matthew W — Thu, 01 May 2008 00:04:28 GMT

I've played twenty or so Derbies in my 37 years of thoroughbred racing, and I've "hit" twice---once on a $10 tri keying Sunday Silence to Easy Goer to three other horses (total $30 bet)Dansil ran 4th but it was good enough for me as the 3rd horse that year was an entrymate of "Easy's"----the thirty turned into $1020----but my all-timer was STICKIN' Sea Hero----he was 31-1 in Oregon that year (93) not the 12-1 he paid in Louiville----the ONE DOLLAR exacta (with the favorite Prairie Bayou) paid $1043---in Oregon! This year I'm leaning Colonel John's way---'taking Bob Black Jack along for the ride---and I love the guts of the Big Brown Crew----another Unbridled's Song??? That was a very good horse---'Thinkin' of keying Col John 1st and 2nd, with Visionaire, Gayego, Big Brown, Z Fortune, Bob Black Jack undereath---too bad for Gayego getting so far out but I think he's "one of the ones" this year--I expect him to fire big but not sure it'll beat The Col and Brownie...

re: How Do You Bet the Derby?

Bob V. Wright — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 17:04:18 GMT

I've been playing the horses since 1962 and have picked a lot of winners (and losers). Always felt if a horse was good enough to win and had a good jockey he/she should be bet that way..Stretch it out a little if you want with a cross the board and maybe throw in a couple cheap exactas..(don't really care for the exotics) I really like BB and Col J. Don't overlook Gayego. Why did Prado pick Adriano ?? Hmmm

re: How Do You Bet the Derby?

FUTURE POOL #1 FIELD REVISITED — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 15:45:00 GMT

A little off topic, but not completely so. I have become a believer that betting the field in the future pool #1 is an excellent odds bet: I just took a look at who is included in my $8.60 for each $2 wagered: Adriano, Big Brown, Big Truck, Cool Coal Man, Eight Belles (hope she runs here because it also helps my field bet in the Oaks!), Gayego, Recapture the Glory, and Visionaire. I am not a believer in Big Brown, but having him covered with the field bet will take the sting out of it should he wire the field. Its good to look back at years like this when we see 3:1 next spring.

re: How Do You Bet the Derby?

Matthew W — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 03:58:23 GMT

"Think Dickbee is right, two horses, Big Brown and Col John----maybe "John" is improving or maybe he was overworked---methinks it's the former, as Tiznow and Turkoman were "late comers"---wow, but Tiznow beat Giants Causeway, ALL the way around the CD track---he was a giant of a horse and is this (Col John) gonna be his first Derby winner?? And, yes, actually closers win a lot of Derbies, this years may be soft on pace but it's usually a fast first 1/2 mi---Col John should have dead aim on Big Brown and these two simply pull away from the rest----Jones got "Derby Fever"----and starts the (mediocre) filly vs two tough animals---no way does she even come close to those-----

re: How Do You Bet the Derby?

RB — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 23:05:36 GMT

as far as wagering go, i like to bet win and place on a horse that i really love. last year i bet 50$ to win and place on street sence and it couldnt have turned out better. but, since i dont have a clear favorite this year, i am going to try my hand at exotics (probably just exacta and tri). the horses i like are big brown, colonel john, pyro (especially if its muddy), and dennis of cork.

re: How Do You Bet the Derby?

JOE T — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 23:04:27 GMT

I ENJOY PICKING ONE HORSE WITH A NICE BET, THEN BOXING HIM WITH 4 OR 5 OHTERS IN THE EXACTA AT 3 OR 4 DOLLARS A BET. NOT A BIG INVESTMENT BUT A FUN DAY. WATCH OUT FOR COLONEL JOHN.

re: How Do You Bet the Derby?

steve — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 18:28:16 GMT

you could bet a 6 horse exacta for $30 with a chance for a huge payout. The $2 exacta giacomo payout was $10,000

re: How Do You Bet the Derby?

Billy D. — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 16:02:23 GMT

If you play a box 4 horses for $48.00, it still gives you a 20% chance of winning which is still better than any slot machine can offer. Or a $1 box on 8 horses (or two superfecta box bets) gives you a 40% chance of winning. You only have to be right once. Remember Giacamo? What was the Super, like $1.7 million? Good luck, however this year all you need to do is key 'Colonel John' on top.

re: How Do You Bet the Derby?

missedgiacomo — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 15:56:33 GMT

Majority of the comments are valid from experienced punters.

Personally, with large fields and 3 y.o's, anything can happen so the Triple Crown Races offer the best chance to cash in a big payout via the superfecta.

Especially with the first in the series. How many times has a sure bet not made the superfecta the past few years?

As a few seasoned punters pointed out, if you don't have the winner you win nothing in exotic betting. I still lament the Derby when Giacomo won. Having the other 3 in the superfecta and not giacomo meant losing the $27 bet. The sad part is scratching him from the superfecta in favour of the favorite- still makes me shake my head.

In these 3 year old races, extending to distance over a track that runs different than most any other track, anything can happen.

Bet the superfecta, pick four and box them.

re: How Do You Bet the Derby?

dooge — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 15:24:52 GMT

There are only 4 that can win this race. Big Brown, Colonel John, Monba,and Z Fortune. Closers very rarely win and I rank Colonel John ahead of Pyro as a closer and will use only one. Stalkers win the majority of the time even if they are further back in this race. Look for the best stalker from previous races against top company. These are the ones who have proven they can be around a good pace and still finish well. Who finishes behind in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th position is what is wide open. Choose from these 4 on top with whoever you like and the possibilities are very good you will hit a big payoff in the tri or superfecta. Speed either wins or is off the board in this race, forget the 2 and 3 spots and use stalkers/closers there. An exception was last year with Hard Spun who hung on but don't expect it to happen again. The reason being that this is the race everyone wants to win and speed horses go all out against higher class animals and are thus way more likely to wilt. Stalkers/Closers in the 2 and 3 spot will get you the money. Rank them seperately (Top Stalkers and Top Closers) and use the top 2 or 3 of each from your rankings.

re: How Do You Bet the Derby?

Funnycide Rules — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 15:15:43 GMT

It's too expensive to try to cover everything you think could happen in a twenty horse field. So, you have to take a stand and accept the possibility that you may lose. That can be painful. I had Barbaro keyed on top of six horses for the trifecta--didn't include Bluegrass Cat, but had the next three. My first decision is whether BB is for real. If I think so, I'll probably key him on top of a bunch.

(Best score was Funnycide-Empire Maker-Peace Rules tri)

re: How Do You Bet the Derby?

yellafella59 — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 13:57:14 GMT

I have been playing horses for more than 35 years and with the polytrack factor involved this leaves the race wide open unless Browns the freak some folks think he is. Being a value player my key will be Court Vision cause I like the way he "woke up" in his work after blinkers were added. Also his breeding screams distance. Good luck to all of you.

re: How Do You Bet the Derby?

BACKSTRECH — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 13:43:17 GMT

Every horse in the field has a chance. Just ask Giacomo!!

Have a great DERBY!!

re: How Do You Bet the Derby?

SlewFan — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 12:52:00 GMT

I never bet the favorites. How are you going to win any money that way. This is what I do, and so far I'm an expert at picking the second and third place finishers of the Derby each year. I've been betting this race every year since the mid seventies. I look at the horses who put in good efforts in their last starts,not necessarily winning them but horses that appear to want more ground, more distance. Check out Smooth Air in the Florida Derby. He ran a terrific second, he was very far off the pace in that race so there was no way he could catch Big Brown. I liked the way he finished. I also liked the way Tale of Ekti won the Wood, he's a fighter and obviously not afraid to bull his way through a hole if he has to. Those are two really good outside horses to consider for say a mere 10 or 20$ bet to win or place. It's fun. I can't get too excited about Big Brown yet because I have seen his kind before. Bellamy Road comes to mind. He could be a great one, and he'll probably be the favorite so you can't win much money that way.. Really good ones are rare, however, we'll see on Saturday. Remember Smooth Air, Tale of Ekati. Who is screaming for more distance?? Bet them!

re: How Do You Bet the Derby?

RJPPDP — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 04:20:15 GMT

The derby is one of my favorite days of year. I got hooked on horse racing the year Bid won. So I bet well on the derby. I know my biggest hits have happen as I have gotten older. I hit the funny cide trifecta with funny on top. I also pool my money with some buddies and hit the barbaro tri. To me play the exotics. this is day to score big. The rest of the year play smart and safe. I play exactas and trifectas. I also play superfecta quick picks because you just never know.

re: How Do You Bet the Derby?

jjazz — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 02:16:27 GMT

The Derby is unique from a handicapping/wagering standpoint, due to the large field,and the numerous "wildcard" factors. This is the race to load up on exotics. Bet as many $1 ExactaBoxes and TriBoxes as you can afford. Don't be afraid to invest a little money in the Derby. Don't be afraid to include a 50/1 shot, who often shoot up for show in this race. Finally, in this race-JOCKEYS COUNT, far more than trainers do.

re: How Do You Bet the Derby?

Daniel R Brooks — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 01:53:17 GMT

I am picking Big Brown to verify Ricky Dutrow's love of the game and his overiding concern for horses and people.I think the horse is awesome with the right owner,trainer and jockey.Bet the farm,it is money in the bank.Daniel