Analysis of the San Rafael Stakes

re: Analysis of the San Rafael Stakes

LDP — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 22:51:03 GMT

Rock, if i remember correctly the track on BC day played extremely fast, and normally it does anyhow. Durin the BC you saw for youself how many records fell, and how many were only fractions away from falling. Before i go hail the Pamp i want to see if he can carry that same speed on dirt and hang, and i doubt he'll be able to.

Dray,

I actually was agreeing with you on the fractions because i believe the track at SA plays fast, even when they exersised Curlin over it they said it was a fast track, allowing horses to skim over it and go faster than normal. I think if the Pamp were to try those fractions on a dirt track he'd fade badly. Also with VH, i will agree he's very talented, but i don't think he's going to be Dubai's miracle horse by winning the Derby. In my oppinion you'd need to bring back Man o War from the dead.

re: Analysis of the San Rafael Stakes

Wanda — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 20:15:53 GMT

No disrespect people but, HELLO it's 2009. New bunch of 3 yr olds and the BB talk was done to death last year.

Come'n lets talk about the ones that are running now please!

re: Analysis of the San Rafael Stakes

Householder — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 19:50:29 GMT

I would keep the first 3 finishers of the San Rafael. Ryehill Dreamer's tank was a little empty after not starting since Aug. but I liked his move on the turn. Plus we are still trying to weed through the late running sprinters from the "classic distance" horses at the San Rafael distance of a mile. Throw Chocolate Candy, Sid and Jenny Craig's homebred (Candy Ride set the track record at Del Mar at 1 1/4 in the Pacific Classic and on his mother's side has tripple crown winners), and it should make for a good Spring in CA. Look for all 4 to start in the Santa Anita Derby. By then we will know if the Pap can carry his speed and I don't think Hollendorfer was interested in backing up Chocolate Candy to a mile after success at routing. (side note...Chocolate Candy did beat the speed of the SR field that day by blasting by Feisty Suances who was double entered in both the SR and Cal Derby).

re: Analysis of the San Rafael Stakes

Householder — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 03:51:03 GMT

Come on The Wiz! Pay some respect to Magical Forest and Nestle's Crunch.

re: Analysis of the San Rafael Stakes

GARYINSALTLAKE — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 02:01:15 GMT

It really frustrates me when I see a very impressive win on pro-ride and never get to see the horse run on dirt before the KD. Why doesn't Julio Canani take The Pamplemousse directly to dirt in his next race? In his post-race interview, he implied he did not have Derby fever and would not take aggressive steps with this horse to get him there. Are you kidding me?

re: Analysis of the San Rafael Stakes

Draynay — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 23:21:04 GMT

LDP ... like I said the fractions were uncontested and not bad but remember VH ran the same fractions months ago as a 2 year old and did it while being pressed with ease beating G1 competition with ease.

If someone doesn't take a giant leap forward in the next 45 days I will be betting it all on VH to win. Now that I have him winning the Derby and Preakness... can he get the 1 1/2 at Belmont ?

re: Analysis of the San Rafael Stakes

Turbo Turf — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 22:50:53 GMT

Dear Quality Street, Fitzaslew is fine and in training at Gulfstream Park. Stay tuned.

re: Analysis of the San Rafael Stakes

fitz — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 21:39:00 GMT

Fitzaslew will be back in the mix very soon. He sustained a minor injury before or during the cradle stakes.

re: Analysis of the San Rafael Stakes

The Rock — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 17:34:04 GMT

LDP,

On the contrary, I think the 45 n change is very legit. In the 3rd race, a MSPW race, they ran the half in 48 n change, so in no way was the track playing fast at all. As a matter of fact, the first two finishers in that race ran 2-3 to "The Pamp" last time out and the 2nd place finisher was at least 5 clear of the 3rd horse. The Pamp is legit and versatile as well. I was taken back by the way he closed first time out after getting completely left. He disappointed somewhat second out but since then he's come around nicely. I have my doubts about him getting the derby distance, but he'll make his presence felt in the preps leading up to it. With that big stride of his, if he's kept in the clear, he'll be alright. In tight quarters in the derby is another story. But I'm getting way ahead of myself, but he should be recognized. He was tied for the top last race beyer with SE (89).

re: Analysis of the San Rafael Stakes

draynot — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 15:54:53 GMT

I can't believe draynay is still trying to convince people that what Big Brown accomplished made him a world beater. Get over it nay nay, someone had to win the Derby and Preakness last year. He faced nobody in the Derby (lmao the 2nd place finisher ran a 2:02.8,the 3rd 2:03.6, and the fourth a 2:04.2). His 2:01.8 was nothing spectacular. Forget the 20 hole, it was a blessing because it kept him away from any trouble, all he had to do was outrun the weakest group of 3 yr olds to come to a Derby in history and with a clean trip it was easy. It's history, the Big Ole Browneye is history, let him go. He faced nothing his entire career and ducked any chance to face Curlin when offered.

re: Analysis of the San Rafael Stakes

DONNA — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 15:08:12 GMT

All the california horses need to get their hooves on a dirt track or kiss them goodbye for the Derby just like Col. John last year. Dirt is the real deal unless you have a turf horse.

re: Analysis of the San Rafael Stakes

Wanda — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 15:04:26 GMT

If this is really for Triple Crown talk lets talk about horses that have ACTUALLY started as 3 yr olds this year.

I agree with Householder and LDP, don't throw out Square Eddie yet. He's showed up every time at the highest level and been competitive.

re: Analysis of the San Rafael Stakes

Tthe_wiz — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 13:27:50 GMT

Cleone and da3hoss,

Thank you for telling it like it is. I'm getting tired of people like draynay talking nonsense. For the last time get over it. Big Brown was above average but accomplished his feats against nobody. The 3 yr ols he beat in his big races were the weakest bunch in history at the time. I pray this year brings a better crop. I'm embarassed at the group of american raced 3 yr olds of last year. Thank god Big Brown ducked the Breeders Cup where he would have finished no better than 5th and probably worse. At least the Derby winner saved us that embarassment.

re: Analysis of the San Rafael Stakes

GARYINSALTLAKE — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 04:32:34 GMT

I wouldn't knock The Pamplemousse so soon. He has a very high cruising speed and inherited the lead in the San Rafael. I think he would have even finished better had he been given a target. If you look at the race, he seemed to have a couple of extra gears coming around the far turn and into the stretch -- first accelerating on his own when he heard SE coming at him, and then again in the stretch when the jockey asked him. He reminds me of another real fighter with a high cruising speed -- Silver Charm. I also remember reading or hearing that he's the type who looks like he'll run better on dirt. Sure hope we get to see that! ... and I sure loved the way SE galloped out past the wire. Would be hard to take either off my top 10 list.

re: Analysis of the San Rafael Stakes

Fire Slam — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 02:40:02 GMT

Not worried about The Pap. Sure speed is dangerous over a lot of ground, that will be his down fall the first Saturday in May. By then, there will be other quality horses, who can carry early speed.

Square Eddie closed well, considering the layoff. Cant wait to see him on an actual dirt track, which is what these animals should be racing on.

re: Analysis of the San Rafael Stakes

LDP — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 19:57:19 GMT

Dray, in any other case i would harly call 45.67 seconds for the half mile OK, but the SA surface produced wicked times. During the BC we saw records falling, being tied, or being very close to being eclipsed, when on dirt or any other synthetic surface, wouldn't happen. For that reason im not convince of the Pamplemousse.

I actually think SE will like the dirt better than he does synthetics. It seems that like Curlin he didn't take to the turf, and so far he's one for three on synthetics. His loss in the SF may have been due to the layoff, plus the fact that the winner got loose on the lead with no pressure at all. I am not scratching Eddie off my list right yet, and if he wins on dirt against a good field then he deserves respect. As of now he's still second on my list, with Old Fashion taking the top.

re: Analysis of the San Rafael Stakes

Householder — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 18:44:26 GMT

It would have been nice to see The Pamplemousse pushed a little through the fractions...Brother Keith went right instead of left on the turn.

re: Analysis of the San Rafael Stakes

Householder — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 18:30:08 GMT

I would not throw out Square Eddie yet. After an 83 day layoff the trainer was looking for a "tune up." Look for him to take a step forward in the San Felipe/Santa Anita Derby. Let's hope all campaining over the questionalble Santa Anita surface stay healthy.

re: Analysis of the San Rafael Stakes

da3hoss — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 14:55:16 GMT

BB was a beautiful horse but Big Brown's best race of 109 was only 3 points higher than Curlin's worst 4th place finish of 106.

Big Brown never came close to equaling a track or race record.

He does not deserve to be in the same sentence, no story, as Secretariat, Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Cigar, Spectacular Bid, Personal Ensign, Citation, Man O'War, any triple crown winner, or truly great horse etc and barely belongs in the same league as a Curlin, Smarty Jones, or Barbaro.

Potential is NOT the same as accomplishment, yes he was the 3-yr old of 2008 triple crown series, but even there he did not come close to a record time, etc...his ability to peak in 3 races was extraordinary...against that crop.

Curlin equaling the Preakness record in a wicked stretch duel in his 5th start was far more impressive.

re: Analysis of the San Rafael Stakes

Draynay — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 14:03:20 GMT

Pamplemousse is hardly anything to watch until he does something on dirt. Getting loose alone on the lead and winning proves little and the fraction were just ok. Vineyard Haven was posting those fractions 3 months ago as a 2 year old on DIRT.

re: Analysis of the San Rafael Stakes

Sheepish — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 12:27:45 GMT

The Pamplemousse flew under my radar, but after his win I think he's one to watch. It seems we have quite a class of three year olds this time around.

re: Analysis of the San Rafael Stakes

Cleone — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 05:51:26 GMT

Draynay said:

Even the great Secretariat could not win his next race after the Triple Crown races...

Dray, check your facts. Secretariat's start after the Belmont was three weeks later, in the Arlington Invitational, 1 1/8 miles on the dirt at Arlington Park. He won by 9 lengths, running the distance in 1:47 flat, missing the track record by a fifth of a second.

re: Analysis of the San Rafael Stakes

Draynay — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 03:05:41 GMT

Think of all the air and words that will be wasted talking about a California horse winning the Derby. Save the energy for the electric grid.

re: Analysis of the San Rafael Stakes

Householderj — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 02:22:49 GMT

The Pamplemousse looks like the real deal based on his fractions (sub 45 for the half) Speed over a distance of ground is always hard to beat. Feisty Suances gave up the lead with an eigth to go in the California Derby. Hollendorfer's Chocolate Candy may have to be added to the Derby mix based on his Cal Derby and Cash Call Futuruty-Gr I performances.

re: Analysis of the San Rafael Stakes

draynay — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 00:42:59 GMT

No excuse to look so average. I am scratching Square Eddie from my list. He will have to take to dirt like a fish to water for me to consider. I am still waiting for ANY horse to look half as good as VH.