Derby Picks

re: Derby Picks

draynay — Sun, 04 May 2008 18:51:02 GMT

Well I guess we don't have to talk about Cali horses anymore do we.... or do you guys want to tell me how they ALL got a bad trip and they will when the Preakness....or the Belmont...or an Allowance race at Calder.....

re: Derby Picks

Wanda — Sat, 03 May 2008 19:50:13 GMT

Jason stand firm on your comments! I happen to agree with you about Pyro.I made my bets this morning on my way to work 10$ win-place on Dennis of Cork 2$ Ex box Tale of Ekati-Colonel John-Dennis of Cork-Big Brown. I feel that Pyro is past his peak.Good Luck all!!!!

re: Derby Picks

Antman — Sat, 03 May 2008 17:40:36 GMT

Here is how I attacked the Derby, I am going to place the bets now, good Luck Everyone

$42 Bet Trifecta Key the 9 with 10,20,16,6,19,12,8

$42 Bet Trifecta Key the 20 with 9,10,16,6,19,12,8

$60 Bet Trifecta Box 6,9,10,16,20

$40 Bet Exacta Box 6,9,10,16,20

$20 Bet Superfecta Key 20/9/ with 6,16,8,10,19,12

$18 Bet Trifecta 9 with all with 10

$100 Bet Win on 20

$18 Bet 10 with all with 16

$24 Bet Superfecta Key 9 with 4,16,6,10

$24 Bet Superfecta Key 10 with 6,8,19,9

$12 Bet $1 exacta Box 1,8,16,4

$20 Bet $5 exacta Box 5,6 and 6,8

$60 Bet $15 exacta Box 9,10 and 20,10

$20 Bet $10 exacta Box 20,8

$12 Bet $1 exacta Box 3,5,6,7

$42 Bet Trifecta Key 10 with 9,20,16,5,19,4,8

$80 Bet Extacta 20 with all 10 with all 9 with all 16 with all

re: Derby Picks

Wista — Sat, 03 May 2008 17:06:28 GMT

If he gets good position early Big Brown should win easily. But there has to be a reason that he has only three lifetime starts. He has had serious quarter crack problems. You don't keep a sound, fast horse in the barn!

This is not a very strong group of three year olds. When I saw Denis of Cork win so convincingly in Arkansas, he was my "derby" horse. But I have some concerns about how he has been handled since that race.

Visionaire will be right there at the finish. There is a great deal of early speed in this race so i think a closer will run down the speed and I think that closer will be Visionaire!

Interstingly, no one gives Gayego much chance. He could sit close to the speed and take the lead at the turn and attempt to hold off the late speed. He is a very game horse

re: Derby Picks

khare — Sat, 03 May 2008 15:55:55 GMT

Johnny Mas, although history is on your side for the most part, we have seen time and time again in recent years that history has been proven wrong. In 1998, at the time of the race Real Quiet did not have the proper dosage of 4.0 or under to win the Derby. However, amazingly after the race, his dosage was adjusted and somehow he was under that 4.0. In 1999, Charismatic won the Derby after racing just 14 days before. In 2004, Funny Cide won the Derby as a gelding. I can't remember, but it had been a very long time since a gelding had worn the roses. In 2005, Giacomo was 4th in his last prep and still won the Derby. Heck, he was even still eligible for NX1 when he won! I know the rule use to always be that a horse had to run at least a 100 Beyer prior to the Derby in order to have a shot to win the Derby. Giacomo never had. In 2006, Barbaro won the Derby off a 5 week rest. The rule use to be they had to race 3 to 4 weeks prior to the Derby, not 5. In 2007, Street Sense won the Derby off of 2 preps (rule was always at least 3) and he was the juvenile champion the year before (I know you mentioned that). I guess my point is that although the "rules" are usually a good indication to go by when picking a Derby winner, they are not set in stone. The game is changing. If you go by all of the rules (3 preps as 3yo, previous Beyer of at least 100, more than 5 lifetime starts, break maiden as a 2yo, no worse than 4th place finish in last prep, dosage index, etc.) then your winner is either Eight Belles or Z Fortune! Althoug I do like Z Fortune at a price to hit the board (I don't like Eight Belles at all) I think others are more capable for the win.

re: Derby Picks

mcaggo — Sat, 03 May 2008 14:25:26 GMT

Big Brown may be a monster, but I believe he ran too big too soon. Based on my criteria, there are 3 contenders for a fast track.

1) Colonel John - set up for best effort.

2) Pyro - last can be forgotten.

3) Visionaire - although I don't like that he is not G1 placed.

Off track moves up Big Brown and Gayego.

re: Derby Picks

Manoa Tommy — Sat, 03 May 2008 14:16:18 GMT

Hammer - still betting favorites to show?

In true fraud tradition Jason backs another inept Californian.

The Picks:

Pyro

Monba

Visionaire

Jason - tell the Louisville Police Force I said hi.

Good luck to all.

re: Derby Picks

Big Daddy — Sat, 03 May 2008 08:23:30 GMT

Them That's got, get's, big money horse's will roll.Good luck,i am with you all the way. Will subscribe to blood horse.

re: Derby Picks

Horse Lover — Sat, 03 May 2008 03:55:50 GMT

1st Big Brown or Colonel 2end Monba 3rd Denis of cork 4th Pyro

Lets See What Happen's on the 3rd

re: Derby Picks

predict — Sat, 03 May 2008 03:42:59 GMT

Alex, finally someone with some sense about this race,congrats on your fore sight; What are the rest of you thinking?

LOOK AT THE PAST PERFORMANCES! STOP TRYING TO MAKE UP THINGS THAT WILL NEVER HAPPEN!

OK, sorry but you are all letting this race drive you nuts.

This race will be won by Big Brown, no one else even comes close. Eight Belles will run second, What? you don't think this filly can run a mile and a quarter, Oh come on , she will never back up an inch in here. Compare her races to others in here, like Pyro at FG or Denis of Cork at OP, she is right there with them, only a mile and a quarter will be her coming out party.

Colonel John runs third, he's the next best horse in here, should love a mile and a quarter, and has never run worse than second till now.

Cool Coal Man runs fourth , half his races have been out of the one hole and he has won 3 of those, toss the last one on poly and he shows up again at Churchill, loving every bit of a mile and a quarter on dirt. He's beaten a good many of these in past meetings already.

There it is a 20-5-10-1 superfecta. Good Luck to all!

re: Derby Picks

trojan bill — Sat, 03 May 2008 03:04:21 GMT

Great insights. Once again, this is a terrific betting race. I like your thoughts on Big Brown.

The way I see someone addressing him on your tickets.

If you like him:

Key him on Top of your Trifecta with 1 of the other big 2 most will say are the contenders: Take a stand against one to run out of the $$. Then pick your value horse in the 2 & 3 slot, along with a bunch in the 3 slot. Very similar to what you have above.

If you want to really take a stand against, but are afraid of him, toss him into your Pick 3/4 ticket for some coverage.

Always makes sense to do that. 2 years ago, I like Barbaro a ton, and still employed that strategy, hitting him for the Pick 3. In fact, what you should do in your pick 3 is take BB, with Pyro & Col John, then toss in 3 more you like at a big price. Go 2x2 in the legs before with smaller field. A nice $24 Pick 3 that could pay off well!

re: Derby Picks

Johnny Mas — Sat, 03 May 2008 02:32:34 GMT

Yo Jason it's Johnny Mas from back in your old stompin grounds back in Philly brother! I'll be at the Oaks Turf Club wishin you were here! You know I'm the King of the Derby Show Bet even though I took a crap in last years race because I always throw out the BC Juv Champ and finally after all these years one wins in Street Sense, I'm 11 of 15(73%)picking the show bet for this race 7 of which won.

I have two $50 win bets on Colonel John already, one for Pool 2 and one for Pool 3. I love him! I watched his Santa Anita Derby win and this horse is a BIG TIME RUNNER IN THE STRETCH.

Just to let everybody know a FACT OR TWO! This is the first 6 things I do before I even handicap whats left.

Rule 1...If a horse hasn't started in a race as a 2 year old throw it the hell out for a win bet. Odds and History on my side.

Rule 2...If a horse won the BC Juv last year throw that horse out for a win bet...yeah yeah it finally happened last year big deal once in over 20 years don't mean crap. Odds and History on my side. War Pass ain't running so this is easy.

Rule 3...If a horse didn't race 5 races in it's lifetime then throw it out also for a win bet. That's right dummies pick Big Brown and throw your money in the trash. The trainer even picked post 20...what a moron! You'll see Big Brown either gets caught wide or from post 20 he'll need to rush up to clear this field and no way has anything left in the stretch. Odds and History on my side.

Rule 4...It's in DA BLOOD BABY! If the horse doesn't have the proper dosage throw it out for a win bet also. It's only happened like 4 times in the last 100 years...I'll take those Odds and History on my side.

Rule 5...Throw out any horse who didn't win or place in a G1 race or win a G2 race this year as a 3 year old. This has been the most telling RULE in my book for years yet dummies keep betting other horses to win. Odds and History on my side.

Rule 6...Throw out any horse to win this race that wasn't 1st or 2nd at the 2nd to last call in their last race before Derby. Odds and History on my side.

***Know from what's left do your handicapping to find the winner.

Some good tips...did they race within 21-35 days, is it gonna rain(are they bred for the mud), Did they finish in the $$ in the last race, are they a gelding or filly, compare the beyer speed figs, did they race at 1 1/8 in the last race on the dirt, were they bred in Cal, Pa, Kent or Florida(you'd be surprised how many horses that were bred in this 4 states have won the derby),are the in the top 8 money earners lifetime and did they show any bullets while training at churchill before race.

Anyway, good luck to all!

re: Derby Picks

sirbarton — Sat, 03 May 2008 02:04:03 GMT

I already have Monba in pool two of KDFW, so I'll use him again along with CV, Col J, and Denis. Currently alive in the double--used Proud Spell and Pure Clan and had them over my four horses for tomorrow.

Good luck to all...

re: Derby Picks

jryan — Fri, 02 May 2008 22:46:40 GMT

Waco, check the facts!!! Gomez's agent chose Vision...and dray NAY....your wagering on horses ends Saturday... but I think your fibbing. If you don't put Court Vision in the tri, try dog racing. Cause the DRF isn't your cup o tea.

re: Derby Picks

Mike from Ossineke, MI — Fri, 02 May 2008 22:07:42 GMT

6:05 est 5-2-2008 kentuckyoaks.com posted the wrong horse winning the Kentucky Oaks. They posted Bsharpsonota as the winner. Yes, they spelled it wrong too.

re: Derby Picks

Slew.em.All — Fri, 02 May 2008 21:24:32 GMT

KY.Oaks:Little Belle,Bsharpsonata,Proud Spell TRI.Box KY.Derby:Pyro/Adriano/Col.John/CCM TRI.,Super Box.

re: Derby Picks

Edgardo Barrera P. — Fri, 02 May 2008 20:58:28 GMT

My Top 5 for the Derby (in order of finish) are:

1. Colonel John

2. Pyro

3. Visionaire

4. Big Brown

5. Court Vision

And my Budweiser Longshot of the Race is: Z Fortune.

Also I would have love to see a horse like Yankee Bravo in this race....so clearly I'm against the Top 20 Graded Earnings Rule for the KD. Just food for thought...-..

re: Derby Picks

Alex — Fri, 02 May 2008 18:52:56 GMT

Although I have not use for Eight Belles, I am tempted to throw a few dollars on her on the basis that she'll run like hell with 19 other horses with giant shlongs chasing her.

Thsi advice may not be as useful as Beyer figures but is sound nonetheless.

Good luck everybody and enjoy the show.

re: Derby Picks

Alex — Fri, 02 May 2008 18:35:17 GMT

My picks are 1) #9 Pyro

2) #10 Colonel John

3) #6 Z Fortune

4) #4 Court Vision

I'll be playing all exotic combinations with the four I picked along with a throwaway win bet on Pyro.

And in closing, I just want to thank Jason again for supplying this great blog for all of us to converse on.

Good luck Jason. You have a little one to put through college now!

re: Derby Picks

dbldwn — Fri, 02 May 2008 18:06:03 GMT

you all forget that the best horse does not always win the derby. a good horse will win but there are so many variables any one of the 20 are capable. why do you think one can no longer "bet the field"?so, don't consider suicide or self-inflicted injury because your choice didn't win or you don't cash. enjoy the greatest 2 minutes in sports. good luck with your wagers, however!

re: Derby Picks

Redline — Fri, 02 May 2008 16:01:57 GMT

I usually stick to simple bets at the track. Can someone explain his bets to me. I understand trifectas and exactas, but the way he posted them is confusing to me. Thanks!

re: Derby Picks

Katy — Fri, 02 May 2008 15:51:12 GMT

I wouldn't be so quick to toss Bob Black Jack. He's proven himself to be more than just a sprinter in his last race. He was the only horse to hold on so well over that cushion track and if he likes dirt he should at least put in a solid effort. As the speed horse with the best post position he can get exactly where he wants to be. If other horses want to pass him -fine. He doesn't need the lead.

The main question is the dirt. Especially if it's wet.

re: Derby Picks

the wiz — Fri, 02 May 2008 15:05:53 GMT

Prado chose Adriano simply because he rode him first. Tale of Ekati wasn't going to be his choice because he's too slow. The other option was Monba and I believe he chose wrong. His agent explained that since Prado had ridden Adriano first they decided to stick there. The two aren't far apart in talent and a jock has to consider future mounts with connections. Stalkers who can hang around legitimate fractions and finish well tend to win this race. That's where I like Monba, ZFortune, and Court Vision. Adriano would fit here but I'm not convinced of his dirt form. Colonel John, Pyro, and Visionaire are the best closers and will be considered. I am in total agreement that Big Brown is to be used on top only and I will do some of that. Good luck to all!!

re: Derby Picks

ilwacocapper — Fri, 02 May 2008 14:28:54 GMT

Gomez never had the choice on Colonel John he was always Nakatani mount, Gomez just filled in while Nakatoni was sidelined.

re: Derby Picks

SlewFan — Fri, 02 May 2008 12:48:41 GMT

Love your analyses of the race and I think you're right on with your selections, although I'm still placing my bet on Smooth Air. I think he's a gutsy little horse and I'm trying to find some value. I refuse to bet the favorite because you really can't win any money that way. However, I may place a $2 bet on Big Brown to win so I have souvenir just in case he turns out to be something great. I hope the filly does well, oh heck, I hope she wins. That would be awesome.