Old Fashioned Thoughts and a New Top 10 Derby Watchlist

re: Old Fashioned Thoughts and a New Top 10 Derby Watchlist

jerry — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 06:10:46 GMT

I you look @ my comments on the dosage of Old Fashioned on 2/26 you will find that finishing up the track was @ 1 1/16 distance to @ 56-1 shot with a clear lead....Do you thing this colt can get 1 1/4 now ????

re: Old Fashioned Thoughts and a New Top 10 Derby Watchlist

Alan — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 09:17:04 GMT

From Bloodhorse:

Looking at the Thoro-Graph numbers for Saturday’s Gotham, there is one horse whose numbers stand out far above the others. That’s not to say someone won’t make a big move forward and he won’t regress, but for speed purposes right now he stands alone, and is “the most likely winner,” according to Thoro-Graph’s Jerry Brown.

www.bloodhorse.com/.../the-fastest-horse-in-the-gothamby-far

re: Old Fashioned Thoughts and a New Top 10 Derby Watchlist

Matt Converse — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 07:12:02 GMT

1.The Pamplemousse--best 9f race of the year, finished strong.

2. Pioneer of the Nile--will have the top one to chase in Santa Anita Derby.

3. Dunkirk--how many lengths will he lose in the Derby going wide?

4. Rachel Alexandra--some of the colts are starting to run similar numbers.

5. Friesan Fire--improving, moving forward, must run faster.

6. Chocolate Candy--see above.

7. Old Fashioned--next race critical to see if he's improved at three.

8. Quality Road--returns to list after big win, but two-turns will be much tougher.

9. Patena--same boat as #5 and #6.

10. General Quarters--can he run like that on other tracks?

11. Imperial Council--like Quality Road, still hasn't gone two turns.

12. Stardom Bound--inches back on due to others dropping off.

just missed: Flat Out, Giant Oak,Big Drama, Haka, Desert Party, Mr. Hot Stuff--nice gallop out in Sham.

re: Old Fashioned Thoughts and a New Top 10 Derby Watchlist

Alan — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 03:11:28 GMT

Mr. Fantasy is my pick in the Gotham Stakes. He reminds me of Lost In The Fog the way he plays with and crushes the field. Both of his Beyers figures were in the 90's and he won't offically be a 3-year old until late May, so there's plenty of upside potential.

On a side note, Secretariat won the Gotham Stakes in 1973.

Alan

re: Old Fashioned Thoughts and a New Top 10 Derby Watchlist

LDP — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 22:24:42 GMT

Mike,

Thanks for the compliment. As i said i try to sound as smart as i can, and the way i feel, if i'm gonna make a good owner or trainer, i need to know everything i can now. I used to want to be a jockey, i'm not overlly tall, and i'd have no trouble keeping my weight down, i can eat anything i want pretty much and still stay a stick, lol. The only thing is i have so many bodily issues, like a bad back and shoulder, which are essential to riding, and especially race riding, that i wouldn't be hold or control a racehorse well. I try to learn all i can. So far there are a few horses that look like they could be breakouts,or flame outs, Mr.F and Dunkirk are the two that stand out to me. Mr. F to me has a better shot, because in his races he hasen't had to overcome that much, so he should be fresh for the Gotham which should show us if he's for real. If he is i still think he'll have enough gas in the tank because he won his last two so easy. Dunkirk looks fantastic, and i'd love for him to be that next superhorse, but he's had to overcome a lot in his last two, then he's gonna have to go in a tough spot again in the FL Derby, and then the Triple Crown. This horse in my oppinion would need Curlin's ressiliance in order to be able to win the Derby. I am going to keep an eye on him though just to see what he's got. I still have OF at the top of my list, and want to see him run his oppenets into the ground on rebles day. The next thing i'd want him to do if i were larry is win the Ak Derby as easily as possible, that way he'd have one real good prep, but he'd also have enough left in the tank for the triple crown. Desert Party looks intriguing and it be great if he could pull off the Dubia Derby jinx. I for one think if he stays sound and health has a very good shot. His sire is SC who has been hot as fire with Street Boss, SS, and more recently Zen. He also has the talent and ability. Lastly i like, no love POTN. He's guttsy talented, and seems to be peaking at the right time. I love his sire, and believe if empire maker had not been boxed and had not bruised his foot a few days before he'd have won. He should have no trouble with the distance, and in my oppinion it's easier for a synthetic horse to cross to dirt. The reason being is because technically that's what they are truley bred to run on. On the other hand a horse going from dirt to synthetic may have a harder time because they are bred to run on dirt, not synthetic, so basicly i think he'll take to dirt. Those are my top few and my reasons, what about yours?

re: Old Fashioned Thoughts and a New Top 10 Derby Watchlist

Mike Relva — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 04:53:09 GMT

TO LDP

I agree with what you are saying. Many people are simply cry babies and finding anything and everything to slam the racehorse. Thats exactly why I make it a point to tell some of them a"thing or two". You possess great knowledge and insights regarding racing.

re: Old Fashioned Thoughts and a New Top 10 Derby Watchlist

LDP — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 03:28:37 GMT

Mike,

Hey, thanks. It just gets on my nerves so much that everyone critisizes a good horses who does everything that is asked of him so far in his career, just because in his last race he didn't run the race in 1.34 and have a 120 beyer fig. A lot of people did that with curlin last year, and now with OF. When you are coming up on the triple crown, you need to make sure your horse is in the best possible form they can be, and that does not mean having them run their TC races during their preps. Every horse is differnt, but you don't win the TC by running your horse into the ground before hand. That is the exact reason why most of these horses coming in with three starts or running big breakout performances now won't win the Derby. BB won last year because he was not only good, but because he did not have to run to his full ability before had, and even in the FA Derby, he had five weeks to recuperate. Dunkirk is a very nice looking colt, but so far he's had to work pretty hard even though he's won by at least 9 lengths in his first two, but especially in his last, no ordinary horse can run three big races, assuming he runs big again in the FA Derby and recuperates 100% for the biggest race of their life against some of this years talent. I think he's a fantastic looking horse, but he'd have to be the biggest freak in the world to win the Derby. Just think of how big of a freak he'd have to be to win the triple crown too. If he could do something like that he'd be deserving of a place amoung the elites, IMO.

re: Old Fashioned Thoughts and a New Top 10 Derby Watchlist

Mike Relva — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 20:33:21 GMT

TO LDP:

I intended to say Larry not Jerry,lol.

re: Old Fashioned Thoughts and a New Top 10 Derby Watchlist

Mike Relva — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 20:32:25 GMT

TO LDP:

You make great sense! Some of the readers' are crying cause as if OF should be running 115 beyers. Jerry knows exactly what he has with this horse and OF hasn't done anything wrong,yet!

re: Old Fashioned Thoughts and a New Top 10 Derby Watchlist

LDP — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 15:00:40 GMT

Hey Mike,

Feeling much better now, i still have a little bit of a scratchy throat and i'm still a bit stuffed up, but overall i feel much better.

Jerry lillard,

dosage indexes, beyers and times don't mean everything. OF has alread, unlike most horses answer the distance question when he won the Remsen last year. He also proved he can rate, which will even further help his chances at being able to get the 1 1/4. Why does this horse have blow everyone away? Right now he doesn't have to which is good, considering he needs to have something left, not just for the Derby, but the whole triple crown. Horses aren't suppose to run their derby, or preakness or belmont in their preps, they need to save what they have so they can have something left in the triple crown, and if we want a TC winner, then save what you have for the belmont.

re: Old Fashioned Thoughts and a New Top 10 Derby Watchlist

jerry lillard — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 23:05:30 GMT

Being a old fashioned handicapper has anyone noticed that Old Fashioned has a dossage of over 5 ? Let me be the first to tell you I told you so when he finishes way up the track on derby day.....

re: Old Fashioned Thoughts and a New Top 10 Derby Watchlist

Mike Relva — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 19:38:00 GMT

HI LDP:

Hope you are feeling better. Thats' cool,you didn't have to give your email add.

re: Old Fashioned Thoughts and a New Top 10 Derby Watchlist

LDP — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 11:12:56 GMT

Kentucky Derby Psychic,

POTN is by empire maker, he is bred to handle dirt. As you saw last year many of the horses from cali could handle dirt, the just weren't good enough to win or just had bad trips. Gyeago won the AK Derby, on dirt when he came over, and CJ may not have won the derby, but he redeemed himself on travers day. IMO it is easier for horses to come over from synthetics to dirt, because thats what they are bred to run on, and the reason most dirt horses going to synthetics for the first time don't do well is because they weren't bred to run on it. With that being said, the fact this horse is by empire maker, and IMO he's better than both of the top cali horse that successful last year on dirt, his chance of taking to dirt and winning the Derby are extremely high. like Mike i think you should check that crystal ball again.

re: Old Fashioned Thoughts and a New Top 10 Derby Watchlist

Mike Relva — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 00:48:47 GMT

TO KENTUCKY DERBY PSYCHIC:

I think you may need to re examine your "crystal ball" expecially regarding Stardom Bound and Pioneer,you are way off!

re: Old Fashioned Thoughts and a New Top 10 Derby Watchlist

Kentucky Derby Psychic — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 01:45:30 GMT

I could relay which horses I like, but the truth is I like a few and it's still too early to commit in detail. Some may make the race, some may not. I'll pick and publish my winners on race day.

What I can relate are those horses that don't have the slightest prayer. Horses that are hyped, will take a ton of money and will run far up the track if they get to the starting gate. Here is a brief list of the hopeless:

Stardom Bound - Never in the annals of horseracing has a filly been so over her head. Take it to the bank, this filly will not hit the board. If you can get odds on her finishing last, it may not be a bad bet.

Dunkirk - Another that the unknowledgeable are going bananas over. A late starter without a dime of graded earnings, who is pointing for the Florida Derby. That race is your chance to score against him. Don't miss it.

Pioneerof The Nile - He could win the Santa Anita Derby and I hope he does. When the footing comes to Kentucky Terra Firma he is going to finish so far from the placing horses binoculars won't even make him look close.

The Oracle has Spoken

re: Old Fashioned Thoughts and a New Top 10 Derby Watchlist

LDP — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 11:11:18 GMT

Matt,

You talk about OF being slow, yet you put Dunkirk #3 when in his last race he ran 1.50 for a mile and and eighth and got a 78 breyer number in his debute. Tracks seem to be slower this year in some areas, so maybe you shouldn't use that as you be all end all. OF had plenty in the tank according to LJ, and was barely blowing. He is a proven stakes horse, and already answer the dist ? as a two year old. This was his first race back against a very tough horse in silver city and he passed. Dunkirk is a very nice horse and looks to be the real deal, but until judgement time in FL Derby he should not be rated that highly.

re: Old Fashioned Thoughts and a New Top 10 Derby Watchlist

Matt Converse — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 07:35:32 GMT

P.S. Also, I liked his gallop out. I noted that before I even read what he said. Old Fashioned and Flat Out were the only two that looked good in the gallop out. If I believed he couldn't run faster than that I'd have tossed him completely.

re: Old Fashioned Thoughts and a New Top 10 Derby Watchlist

Matt Converse — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 07:32:16 GMT

Yes, it has, that's why I haven't tossed him from my list. He also ran other races where he wanted something left in the tank, and ran faster. He could step up in his next, run a 105 and be at #1 on my list, I know that's possible given his two-year-old season. But I also think he it's possible he is flat-lining; a top two-year-old who matures fast and never gets much faster. They still win their prep races but don't improve. The best recent example I can think of is Scat Daddy.

re: Old Fashioned Thoughts and a New Top 10 Derby Watchlist

MIKE RELVA — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 04:08:12 GMT

TO MATT CONVERSE:

Did it ever occur that maybe Larry Jones is trying to leave something in the tank for down the road for OF?

re: Old Fashioned Thoughts and a New Top 10 Derby Watchlist

Matt Converse — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 03:13:44 GMT

Matt's Derby Dozen

1. Pioneer of the Nile--keeps improving, bred for distance.

2. Rachel Alexandra--might be the best horse out there.

3. Dunkirk--impressive win going 9f despite being 10-wide early.

4. Take the Points--ran 100 Beyer going a mile last out, now heading West for Sham.

5. Freisan Fire--slowly improving.

6. The Pamplemousse--speed that rekick when challenged, a huge horse but pedigree is iffy for 10f.

7. Old Fashioned--three-year-old debut was his slowest race ever, not the best of signs.

8. General Quarters--100 Beyer last time but it's a track that can be a bit quirky.

8. Chocolate Candy--slowly improving but will have to run faster.

9. Capt. Candyman Can--distance is the question for this Candy Ride.

10. Desert Party--looked back in form in Dubai debut.

11. Patena--coming around and should like distance.

12. Stardom Bound--debut was a bit subpar for her level.

re: Old Fashioned Thoughts and a New Top 10 Derby Watchlist

MIKE RELVA — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 00:16:33 GMT

TO INQUIRY:

What you will see on March 7 is Haynesfield blowing by the others'.

re: Old Fashioned Thoughts and a New Top 10 Derby Watchlist

Convene — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 00:53:29 GMT

This is the first time in decades I've picked a Derby choice this early - not even Derby 133 when my choice was Hard Spun - but this time I have. Old Fashioned all the way - with Fresian Fire or Stardom Bound at his heels! I'd have to include Capt. Candyman Can in my list of horses chasing Old Fashioned - but hey, it's only February and as they say, "Many a slip twixt the cup and the lip!" But I'm standing for Old Fashioned all the way home.

re: Old Fashioned Thoughts and a New Top 10 Derby Watchlist

zarvona — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 00:41:19 GMT

And, I must amit, that "General Quarters", whose chances I don't personally rate high, is my feel good "National Velvet" storyline so far.

re: Old Fashioned Thoughts and a New Top 10 Derby Watchlist

Householder — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 00:57:00 GMT

Willie I hope the Pamplemousse is back for the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby because we need something to run at (Chocolate Candy, Stardom Bound, Pioneer of the Nile). While I like Cherokee Run's high cruising speed he seemed better suited for distances of about a mile and Kafwain seemed to falter on the same path that his son (Pamplemousse) has taken. If they can stretch that speed over a distance he will be scary. This is a big if...and do we really want a Kentucky Derby winner who in named after a restaurant? What's next "The Sizzler?" His mama's side seems turf...perhaps Breeder's Cup Turf Mile? He's got the speed. The next Lure?

re: Old Fashioned Thoughts and a New Top 10 Derby Watchlist

zarvona — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 00:47:53 GMT

Yep me too, getting a 'lil nervous about "Warrior's Reward", "Patena", and "Imperial Coucil" being so lightly raced. Seemes their connections must be thinking they are going to run 1 or 2 down the road in some major prep and gain enough earnings!, so good luck with that strategy! Maybe their connections are figuring that if they don't win a major prep, forget the Derby!!