Fountain of Youth and Sham Thoughts

re: Fountain of Youth and Sham Thoughts

August Song — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 22:51:46 GMT

I'll be betting Quality Road in the 2nd Derby futures pool. Now is the chance to lock in the high odds. After the Florida Derby, and people see that he has no problem with added distance, it will be too late. This will be his last race leading up to the Derby. If anyone can get a horse to win the Derby off 4 lifetime races, Jimmy can do it. If you watch the re-play of the Fountain of Youth, you can clearly see Quality Road still reaching out throughout the stretch and the finish, and drawing away from Theregoesjojo. This is what makes Quality Road so very dangerous! He has so much natural speed to establish a position near the front but, not necessarily on the lead, and the stamina to be the one to make the important move when it counts, and draw off. Closers that make their move, like Jojo did, don't have much of a chance. McPeek was very impressed with the horse, who beat him. Jojo has only one more chance to make enough earnings to qualify to run in the Derby. He will be running against both, Dunkirk and Quality Road, in the Florida Derby. I would say, "Good Luck, you've got your work cut out for you", to Jojo's connections. And when you have a chance, check out the physical size of Quality Road compared to the competition. I haven't seen too many writers or observers comment on it, yet. You can be sure. They will.

re: Fountain of Youth and Sham Thoughts

neddy — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 20:27:14 GMT

A lot of talk about future bets...anyone like my $100 to win on jojo at 80 to 1??

re: Fountain of Youth and Sham Thoughts

Slew.em.All — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 21:41:14 GMT

You know swirlaway13: that's not too far fetched, I can dig-it! :)

re: Fountain of Youth and Sham Thoughts

swirlaway13 — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 13:26:27 GMT

The Derby trifeca:

Stardom Bound

Beethoven/Quality Road.

Remember, you heard it here, lol.

re: Fountain of Youth and Sham Thoughts

Householder — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 06:50:04 GMT

Has anyone asked Baffert what he thinks of The Pamplemousse? He trained his dad Kafwain.

re: Fountain of Youth and Sham Thoughts

Wanda — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 01:57:48 GMT

Oh man I'd like to but I'm a working girl this weekend. We've got the Brier (curling). It's a huge deal here in the Great White North. What else do you do when it's 30 below, go throw rocks indoor on ice? I'll try and hook up with you down the road but I think you'll have your hands full on Sat lol.

re: Fountain of Youth and Sham Thoughts

Householder — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 23:38:19 GMT

Dunkirk picked up $22,000 for his last win. His trainer is like

0-600 in the Kentucky Derby despite entering 1/2 the field. It's time to move some multiple graded stakes winners ahead of this horse regardless of what ones take on California is. This horse may not be invited to the big dance and if he makes it the trainer will be 0-601.

re: Fountain of Youth and Sham Thoughts

gw_bushwacker — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 18:21:27 GMT

My point was it's funny how you include for instance Dunkirk on a list you say is 100% certain to produce the Derby winner and continue to bash him. That way if he wins you could go back and say you had him back in March on your list that you claim one of those mentioned would win and if he loses you could say I told you so. Nice to have it both ways I guess.

re: Fountain of Youth and Sham Thoughts

Slew.em.All — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 18:06:59 GMT

Hey Dray,I jumped on Beethoven's future because his odds were too good to pass up.There's always hope.Don't count him out just yet. As you know I'm still going with the Filly Stardom Bound as my lock "IF" she's in the Derby.

So I see that you have IC at the top of your list now,.Hilarious the way you keep flip-flopping and contradicting yourself but what else should we expect right?..didn't you call-out people who like Dunkirk,saying he was just an allowance winner. Well,so is IC..and what happened to your "sure" bet VH? slooowly dropping down your list I see..lol

re: Fountain of Youth and Sham Thoughts

Draynay — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 17:12:54 GMT

Bushwacker ! Did you notice where they were on the list ? He is my new list so you have it. Study and learn.

1. Imperial Council

2. Desert Party

3. POTN

4. Stardom Bound

5. Quality Road

6. Vineyard Haven

7. Rachel Alexandra

8. Pampelmousse

9. General Quarters

10. Mr. Fantasy

Its easy to get to 7 or 8 horses after that you are just adding a couple to fill the list. For the record Dunkirk and Old Fashioned have no chance at all in the Derby and any money bet on them will be a complete waste.

re: Fountain of Youth and Sham Thoughts

Jason Shandler — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 16:58:21 GMT

Thanks Wanda. Will you be joining me?

re: Fountain of Youth and Sham Thoughts

gw_bushwacker — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 13:43:17 GMT

I find it very interesting that even though he has bashed Dunkirk and Mr. Fantasy to a pulp that draynay includes them on a list of 10 that he claims is 100% certain to produce the Derby winner. It might even be a bit humorous if he wasn't such a jerk to those who have come out and said they like these horses chances. I would not be a bit surprised if he adds another 10 horses to the list by the time the race is run. Then he'd have all his bases covered.

re: Fountain of Youth and Sham Thoughts

Wanda — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 13:10:20 GMT

Just read the news Jason. Good luck with the live chat Bro!

re: Fountain of Youth and Sham Thoughts

Householder — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 06:40:59 GMT

"Winning Colors romps home to win the Oaks by 8." Stardom Bound uses the same spring board this Saturday to the Santa Anita Derby. Perhaps she can take this one (SA Derby) like Winning Colors as well (by some 8-9 lengths over some nice ones like Lively One). If POTN does not defect he could be joined by Stardom Bound, Chocolate Candy, and the Pamplemousse. This may be better than the Kentucky Derby!

re: Fountain of Youth and Sham Thoughts

Householder — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 06:28:00 GMT

With Pioneer of the Nile now entered in the San Felipe March 18th this would only leave 3 weeks turn around before the Santa Anita Derby. With as much as Baffert moans and groans about synthetics is he possibly looking at the Blue Grass a week later than the Santa Anita Derby? Does he have more to prove against the Pamplemousse or running on dirt?

re: Fountain of Youth and Sham Thoughts

Draynay — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 05:19:52 GMT

Hey Slew here is a idea for you. Next time pick a better horse in the futures ! Beethoven isn't a Derby winning horse.

re: Fountain of Youth and Sham Thoughts

Jason Shandler — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 03:41:15 GMT

Rocker: I said the same thing with the Gulfstream Beyers. They mean nothing.

Slew: I'm sure Ward will listen to reason :) I think he'll have a good shot to go to the Derby if he runs third or even fourth in the Fla. Derby. He should have enough earnings, especially if he gets third.

re: Fountain of Youth and Sham Thoughts

Slew.em.All — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 02:15:29 GMT

Hey Jason,since you have access to Mr.John T. Ward,Jr., can u do me a BIG$$$$ favor?..try and convince him to ship Beethoven to NY for the Wood Memorial instead of keeping him in Fla.,where that track is not doing him any justice.

I have him @ 75-1 in the futures since last Nov.,and I'm afraid even if Beethoven finishes a fast closing but far back 3rd/4th,he won't go to the Derby..at least in NY he'll have a chance to prove that's he's better than his last 2 races.Thus,that'll catapult him the Churchill where his 2 for 3.

I'd appreciate EVERTHING you can do to make it happen captain :) lol

re: Fountain of Youth and Sham Thoughts

Rocker — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 02:14:19 GMT

Is it just me or is anyone else noticing these horses winning the 3 year old prep races at Gulfstream are throwing up these ridiculous beyer numbers.

First you had This One Is Phil who earned a 76 beyer before he comes off a 2.5 month layoff run 6 furlongs gets a 116 beyer then in the fountain of Youth goes to the lead and quits. So he is probably better off at 6 furlongs. +40 beyer that's ridiculous to think that this horse got that much better.

Notonthesamepage: Another one that came off the bench runs 6 furlongs in the Spectacular Bid and earns a 114 beyer and doesn't move a muscle in the Fountain of Youth. Another Sprinter trying to stretch out. His previous beyers 53 at keenland in the Gr 1 breeders futurity ( I forgive that effort probably didn't like the polytrack) the race before he gets a 73 at Saratoga in the Hopeful.

Everybody Loved Capt Candyman Can last week before the Fountain Of Youth well he was in the perfect position in the Fountain of Youth and came up empty.

So the 3 favorites for the Fountain of Youth ran off the board. Those 3 are sprinters not derby horses.

Quality Road I still have doubts about him he was getting lasix for the first time and he was getting 4- 6 pounds from everyone else. Fast time but I want to see a repeat effort before I believe he is real. He earns a 113 beyer for the fountain of youth in his second race back off a layoff.

The most consistent horse that has run in these 3 yr prep races is Beethoven he was a tired fourth after drawing the 12 hole in the Holy Bull and He closed on a track that was favoring front runners.

Yes he was beaten by 8 lengths by Quality road but Beethoven wants more ground and his beyers show progress they are not jumping from one extreme to another like all the rest he is consistent. 91 in the Holy Bull 97 in the Fountain of Youth. He washed out before the race. If He can get a fair track and some pace to run into he will be dangerous in the Florida Derby 3rd off a layoff and getting more ground to close into is a + & At least we know He Likes Churchill

re: Fountain of Youth and Sham Thoughts

LDP — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 23:04:54 GMT

Thanks Mike,

I've actually tried to stay out of things before, but it just never works. You know i've also thought about being a sports writer for horse racing before. I love english class, and writing, so that's always another option. I appriciate everything you said thank you.

re: Fountain of Youth and Sham Thoughts

TerriV — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 22:31:13 GMT

All of these horses have "something to prove". That's the whole point of all these derby prep races. And each one of us has good reasons (though often purely personal) as to why one horse is better than another. With every race the picture shifts a little. I am wondering and concerned about Old Fashioned. Is he working at all?

re: Fountain of Youth and Sham Thoughts

Mike Relva — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 19:06:16 GMT

TO: LDP

Hi! Please don't stress,not worth it. As you well realize some "make up their own rules as they go along" with putting a slant,refusing to accept the facts. You write w/ alot of insight and heart. I wouldn't worry about it for you've forgotten more than many of them could ever know,lol.

re: Fountain of Youth and Sham Thoughts

Mike Relva — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 18:57:36 GMT

TO: DRAYNAY

I've always liked Pioneer,partly cause of the trainer. You make a good point w/Quality Road. Still waiting to see VH again. As I stated I'm a fan of Stardom Bound,too. Would be the first to admit I know Haynesfield is up against it on Saturday. Thanks!

re: Fountain of Youth and Sham Thoughts

Wanda — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 14:40:49 GMT

Hey Jason it's not like we're sending the space shuttle to the launch pad right?

re: Fountain of Youth and Sham Thoughts

swirlaway13 — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 06:59:08 GMT

The most impressive horse I've seen this year is Evita Argentina. Rather than hooking Stardom Bound, she went and blew by the boys like they were standing still.

I predict she will win the Oaks and Srardom Bound will blow by the boys in the Derby.

The PM is "legitimate" speed, just like Barbaro. Give him an easy lead and wave bye-bye. He won't get an easy lead in the Derby, there are always phony speed horses entered that run with their hair on fire for a mile before exploding. If PM can rate, which I believe, like Barbaro, he can, he'll be tough to beat.

But if Stardom Bound is anywhere around ar the top of the stretch, she beats them all home.

Just my opinion of course but as it stands right now, Stardom Bound is #1, Evita #2 and the Mousse #3 and I am definately a right coast guy as a rule.

Can't wait.