Lane's End Stakes Analysis

re: Lane's End Stakes Analysis

gw_bushwacker — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 21:07:49 GMT

slyder,

You crack me up. Thanks for the laugh at nay nay's expense.

re: Lane's End Stakes Analysis

slyder — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 23:27:32 GMT

draynay: You aren't even half right when you say for the last decade the winners of the Ky. Derby have come out of the Wood or Fla. Derby's. 6 of the last 10 winners came out of something OTHER than the Wood or Fla. Derby.

Get a grip on yourself, you are losing touch with reality.

re: Lane's End Stakes Analysis

GunBow — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 06:56:12 GMT

I want to make sure to thank Jason for taking time out of a busy day to talk with me Satuday at Turfway. We talked for a good ten minutes after race 6 and then again after the Lane's End. He has a demanding job w/ Bloodhorse, having to write articles for the magazine some weekends (like this one), while on the other weekends he has to write the recap articles on the webpage for the Triple Crown preps. Then, he has to read all of OUR comments......

re: Lane's End Stakes Analysis

GunBow — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 05:57:38 GMT

Putting aside their chances in the Kentucky Derby, the top two finishers in the Lane's End appear to have very bright futures. Hold Me Back is a $400,000 yearling by Giants Causeway out of an Unbridled's Song mare, and Flying Private is a $700,000 yearling by Fusaichi Pegasus out of an Unbridled mare; you will find few better bred Derby prospects than these two. HMB and FP finished 4 lengths clear of the game but overmatched locals, Proceed Bee and Parade Clown, the fractions for the Lane's End were solid (no quarters under 25), the finishing splits were strong, and the final time was about 10 lengths faster than the Rushaway (winner Cliffy's Future). Hold Me Back, in particular, looks very promising, showing the ability to rate, accelerate on command, and finish up well. This was only his 4th career start, and his first start in 4 months, so we are talking about real talent. He figures to only get better from this, and Mott had thought enough of him to run him in the Remsen in his 3rd start. He has excellent connections being owned by Win Star, trained by Bill Mott, and ridden by 3-time Kentucky Derby champ Desormeaux. It looks like 10 furlongs will be no problem for HMB, as he closed very well in the Lane's End at 9 furlongs, and had won at 8.5 fulongs twice before.

Having said this, I really don't like his chances in the Kentucky Derby. While he does have tremendous potential, he just doesnt have the foundation that is needed to win the Derby. The only chance he would have is if he was given another start in either the Blue Grass or Lexington, and I pray his connection do not go straight to the Derby. Even with another start before the Derby, he will only have 5 lifetime starts, and only 2 this year. Then, there is the question of whether he can transfer his form to dirt. All 3 of his wins have come on a synthetic track, winning on the Arlington poly, Keeneland poly, and now the Turfway poly. In his only start on dirt, he ran 5th, 18 lengths behind Old Fashioned in the Remsen. However, I am not ready to write-off his chances on dirt because of that one race. Evidently, HMB was still very immature at the time of the Remsen and very underdeveloped, and has since grown physically and mentally. His breeding suggests dirt should be possible, but it is hard to know for sure. And even if he proves not to be a Triple Crown type, I think he can have a lucrative career, even if only on synthetics or turf.

Flying Private is more of a proven commodity on dirt, having run 4 times at Oaklawn, twice at Churchill, and twice at Saratoga. He also has experience at distances at a mile and over, but before his last start he just had not run particularly fast, with a top Beyer of 79. In his last before the Lane's End, however, Lukas shortened him up to 6 furlongs, and, as Fire Slam and OP Fan pointed out, he ran very well, finishing an unlucky 2nd w/ a 87 Beyer. I thought before the Lane's End that the improved Beyer could have been the result of the turnback in distance, but his performance in the Lane's End demonstrated that he is just getting better; and he is getting better at the right time. Although he doesnt have as much career upside as HMB, having run in twice as many races, this foundation may make him a better Triple Crown contender. Lukas certainly knows how to win the Derby, and you know he loves to run in that race, so expect him to point FP to Churchill. The horse will probably need more graded earnings, so expect to see him in the Blue Grass or Arkansas Derby. At best, FP is most likely a Derby longshot, but Lukas has gotten hot at the right time before (Charismatic 99').

As for the pre-race favorites, West Side Bernie and Bittel Road, neither really picked up his feet. It is hard to image the two camps proceeding forward to Churchill, but the two horses can certainly run better and still might prove themselves down the road. If the connections of Bernie' and Bittel' are still thinking Derby, it is hard to imagine that either horse got much from the Lane's End; so, I would think both would need another start before the Derby. In fairness, both probably do deserve another shot, but this is awfully late to be throwing clunkers.

re: Lane's End Stakes Analysis

Fire Slam — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 02:14:18 GMT

Matthew W--I agree with ya. The horse made a huge move. What I am excited about is, if you watch the replay, this horse stayed in perfect position down the backside, about 4th or fifth, and eased into contention. He was very professional.

Going into the turn, you could tell the jock began to shake his hands some, encouraging him. I dont think he was going as easy as he would have on a normal/real tack. He was sliding over it, just like Street Sense did in his race before the Derby.

Glad to see CA-CHING, that means you cashed. Hopefully we can a get a fair price on him when he gets back on dirt.

re: Lane's End Stakes Analysis

Matthew W — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 09:39:59 GMT

BTW Fire Slam nice call on Flying Private....D Wayne when the Beyers go up....CA-CHING!!

re: Lane's End Stakes Analysis

Matthew W — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 09:38:37 GMT

Fire Slam:....Flying Private was URGED by the jock...but that wasn't the jock making that big stretch move--that was the horse! Lots of horses need to be urged--as for not hand'ling the track, To the unbiased eye--(mine) he loomed bold/hung in there--I like him, I just think he's way up against it...

re: Lane's End Stakes Analysis

Matthew W — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 09:32:21 GMT

The winner is now 3 for 3 on synthetic tracks...Wayne's horse showed marked improvement last out--a real telling sign about D Wayne perhaps many have forgot? That his 3yolds improve quickly---D Wayne Lukas has a nice horse there... exacta close to three hundy for a buck--that wasn't too hard to find/include vs such an unnacomplished field....

re: Lane's End Stakes Analysis

Fire Slam — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 01:29:59 GMT

Flying Private did not handle the poly track. You could tell going into the turn, the jock had to start riding him hard. He did not make the lead on his own. The two horses in front of him, died off, he recieved the lead, and Bill Motts horse ran by him.

Would be interesting to see what would have happened if it was on dirt, and FP would have been able to dig in and accelerate.

Hats off to winner though!! He came and was game on a big day. Hope to see Flying Private in Derby. Still cashed at 24-1!!!

re: Lane's End Stakes Analysis

Householder — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 23:28:29 GMT

Houston we have a problem. Bittel Road and West Side Bernie off the board. I'm hearing Mott's name a lot...something about Pioneer of the...

re: Lane's End Stakes Analysis

The Mouse — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 22:45:04 GMT

Zarvona, right on, you had the Lanes End on top, good show, and also congrats to MRO and JS for their faith in Flying Private, great exacta guys, hope one of you had it? I was just along for the ride.

re: Lane's End Stakes Analysis

Tiznowbaby — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 22:08:51 GMT

Well that was quite the interesting result. As you said, probably won't have any bearing on KD results, but it gets Hold Me Back in the starting gate if they wish.

re: Lane's End Stakes Analysis

m palmer — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 14:35:43 GMT

Bruce N Autum is bred to easily get nine furlongs. He is by Steven Got Even out of a Stop The Music broodmare. In the last 100 meters he will be the only one that is not one pace. At 20-1 this is a blessing from above.

re: Lane's End Stakes Analysis

Curlin — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 14:18:50 GMT

WOW Jason! I think the lack of comments thus far shows just how people feel about this race as a Derby prep, don't you?

re: Lane's End Stakes Analysis

Fire Slam — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 04:43:15 GMT

Flying Private. Take it to the bank. Also, Eddie Martin in the fourth at Oaklawn, and No Inflation for Tom Proctor in the Rushway.

re: Lane's End Stakes Analysis

Draynay — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 23:10:21 GMT

op fan... you're right... when the winner of the Derby starts coming out of races other than the Wood and the FD I will change my handicapping but for the last decade the winner has been coming from the Wood or FD.

re: Lane's End Stakes Analysis

Keith - TripleDeadHeat — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 18:08:30 GMT

Some pace in here to be run at for sure...I'm a fan of Prado and think West Side Bernie did well from post 13 in a very tough BC Juvenile. It won't pay much but it's a likely winner. Good test for WSB to win in a crowd.

Cheers

re: Lane's End Stakes Analysis

op fan — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 17:13:40 GMT

draynay, you make it sound like horses that run in anything but the wood or florida derby don't count. maybe someday you will realize good horses run at tracks all over the country.

re: Lane's End Stakes Analysis

Curlin — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 16:53:32 GMT

Although I don't think we're looking at a blazing pace by any means, I do think there will be enough speed in here to set it up for Bittel Road. He'll probably get 1st jump on West Side Bernie and it will just be a question of if he has enough to hold WSB off at the wire. Bittel Road's 2 worst lifetime races (at least by # of lengths finished behind the winner) have been when he draws an outside post in a 2 turn race. Well, he draws inside today so he should be able to save enough ground going into the 1st turn. I'll play Parade Clown, Jack Spratt and Flying Private in the 3rd spot. On top of that, I'll play a straight tri of Bittel Road-West Side Bernie-Parade Clown.

I like the Lane's End because Turfway usually puts on a pretty good day for the race, but as far as Derby impact, I expect the only horse who will be running in the Derby this year will be WSB. I look for Bittel Road to run in the Crown Royal Turf on Oaks Day not the Derby. The only other horse that might even run in the Derby IMO would be Flying Private if he can somehow pull the upset or finish 2nd. Lukas loves the Derby and will run anything in there that has enough graded earnings. If FP finishing 2nd, look for Lukas to bring him back in the Lexington to try and earn a little more graded money to guarantee him a spot in the starting gate on Derby Day. Good luck to all.

re: Lane's End Stakes Analysis

Nick — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 15:54:31 GMT

Parade Clown should hit the board at a price.

re: Lane's End Stakes Analysis

MATT H. — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 14:55:41 GMT

has anybody looked west side bernies start in the last 3 races he is alright but if you look down the list he has been kind of inconsistant but the whole entire race doesnt light my hair on fire bittle road i wish you all the best but doubt to see you at church hill downs on may second i hope dont lose all my money on west side bernie here is a hint if i bet any money i wouldnt take the 2 favorites and hope for a long shot

re: Lane's End Stakes Analysis

marc w. — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 14:43:55 GMT

I think the Land's End, IL, Ohio, Iowa, Penn.,WV, Texas, and Super Derbies are all races where if someone is realistic and have a nice horse can win a lot of money without breaking their horses heart chasing the best. Woody did it years ago with some 2nd stringers, and Steve A. did it with Z. a few years ago. He realized the path with Pyro a touch late, although I certainly wouldn't blame him after his LA races, he had lost his confidence by then to really benefit.

re: Lane's End Stakes Analysis

Coldfacts — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 10:48:45 GMT

Jason, I was hoping Jack Spratt would have made a competitive transition from turf to dirt in the FY but his effort was dismal. I would not conclude like you have that he was over matched. Daniabeach victory was achieved in 1:35 2/5. The FY was run in 1:35 flat.. I am aware that both races were contested on different surfaces but he obviously did not take to the dirt. If you are high on Bittel Road, then Jack Spratt will be the winner. His record might not reflect it but he has more ability than Bittel Road. Both horses made their 3rd start on 5th Oct at Keeneland in the Bourbon (G3). Bittel Road entered the race undefeated with an $80K stakes win to his credit. Jack Spratt entered the race still a maiden. Bittel Road would go on to record his third victory. The maiden Jack Spratt who was running against winner in a graded race was beaten 41/2L. A maiden in a G3 against winners should have been blown away. Bittel Road went on to be the loosing favorite in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. Jack Sprat a May foal after being subjected to 5 races in 97 days was rested for 49 days and returned to win the one mile Daniabeach in1:35 2/5. Bittel Road’s was beaten by 1 1/2L in the one mile Generous (G3) run in 1:35 flat.

Bittel Road has started in some tough races in CA i.e., The Cashcall Futurity and The Robert Lewis and had to run hard on both occasions. Jack Sprat on the other hand has had an easy schedule and should be the fresher of the two. In both the Cashcall Futurity and Robert Lewis Bittel Road appeared to be one pace. In Jack Spratt’s only attempt on the fake stuff he closed. I hope the betting public make Bittel Road 1-5 as I believe in betting small amount for large returns.

re: Lane's End Stakes Analysis

Householder — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 05:42:56 GMT

Candy Ride's are doing well. $2 to Win on Jack Spratt.

re: Lane's End Stakes Analysis

Skyfire — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 03:25:41 GMT

Dray, you discount Larry Jones at your peril!!