Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

ken — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 18:14:52 GMT

August,

Interesting facts you posted there, however, I still don't like a horse that got passed at 7 furlongs on dirt even though it was his first race back. He was ultra impressive in the FOY, true, but now he has to go 1 and 1/8 and then 1 and 1/4. Unless the jock was told to not push him AT ALL in that comeback race it leaves a bad taste in my mouth for him to get 1 and 1/4

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

Ken — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 18:07:27 GMT

Draynay, that is called strategy. If Quality Road can't avoid a speed duel does he deserve to win?

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

Wanda — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 15:49:45 GMT

Draynay: Haskin also pointed out that TP has done this before with zero results. Running a rabbit to ensure a honest pace is a smart move IF it works. Remember it's a business and these guys are pretty smart business men/women.

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

Draynay — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 14:27:26 GMT

Great post August Song.... I could not agree more. Steve Haskin wrote that unless a rabbit is thrown in to alter the race Quality Road will just run around slowly and win??? Did I read that right or am I missing something? I guess we should ALWAYS throw in horses that can't win to mess up the outcome. Talk about trying to steal a race..... unreal !!!

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

Barbara — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 14:21:59 GMT

August, it would be nice to have a superstar.

On his sire, Elusive Quality, he did not get many unimpressive mares in 05 at 100k stud fee, the year after Smarty won the Derby....

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

ezzy — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 09:53:42 GMT

what is this a freak contest? Dunkirk is no Big Brown that much we all know so could we all just wait till after the Florida derby then we can all say how good he is or how over-rated he was! bottom line is he exudes class and has a good vibe around him! I know I'm routing for him Saturday but I'm practical beating that field, Quality road in particular could mean he's special. till then, my lips are sealed.

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

August Song — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 06:32:21 GMT

If you knew what happened to Quality Road during the race, and to still be able to run the type of race that he did, and to win the way he did. He was drawing away from Theregoesjojo in the stretch. Make no mistake. McPeek recognizes the type of horse that his horse is running against. A lot is at stake but, jojo probably doesn't get to go to the Derby. Well, we might be looking at greatness here. Richard Migliore, who was getting on Jimmy's horses last summer, and was initially scheduled to ride Quality Road in his first race but, because of a conflict/commitment to ride Desert Code (the winner of the Breeders Cup Turf sprint) he had to be replaced. Richard alluded to, during an interview, the characterisics that can make for a special racehorse. He said, "Quality Road is the complete package........and I have no doubt that the horse will be able to run as far as he needs to run." And, somebody else analyzed the Fountain of Youth. He said, "The Fountain of Youth was the only one-mile race all week with a sub-46 opening half; in only one other race was the opening half under 47 seconds. In the Davona Dale, Frolic's Dream, one of the quickest fillies around, led with a split of 47.39. As for the Fountain of Youth's three-quarter split, 1:09.40, that stands out like a redwood in a pine forest. The average three-quarter split for the week was 1:12.84 ...... and in only four races was the opening six-furlong split under 1:13, the second- fastest mile of the week, 1:37.67, which of course, is about 13 lengths slower than Quality Road's effort. And what does this all mean? Well, for one thing, it means the Fountain of Youth was superlative. For another, is means Quality Road, even though he has yet to race around two turns, probably should be rated higher than No. 4. And, for yet another, it means he could become a superstar."

P.S.- The fountain of Youth was run signicantly faster than the mile Grade II stakes race for older horses run the following week-end, and won by Smooth Air.

Say hello to the next superstar: Quality Road.

Watch for the stud fee on Elusive Quality to begin to zoom up. Thus far with a limited number of crops, and from an unimpressive list of broodmares to date, he has sired an unusually large percentage of graded stakes winners, surely a future Chef-De-Race consideration in the making, is what we are witnessing.

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

GunBow — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 05:17:31 GMT

I went back and watched Dunkirk's maiden and alowance races. I can see why his maiden win received such a low Beyer (as well as other speed figs). After a half in 45 and 1, the front runners went the next quarter in 26 and 4 for a 6 furlong split of 1:12. That 26 and 4 internal split is ridiculously slow; no wonder Dunkirk was able to go by the frontrunners so quickly, they were virtually walking by then.

As for his allowance win, the time and figs came back much better, and I really do love this colt's stride. He appears to cover ground so effortlessly. Yet, like many others, I wasnt blown away be the performance and do not think he beat a strong field. He still seems slightly green, running in spurts before being able to level off. Additionally, he hasnt shown that instant acceleration, that pure turn of brilliance, or nimble athleticism. However,that could be merely a matter of perception, given that his strides or so long. His steady, bounding strides suggest he'll be at his best beyond 9 furlongs.

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

GunBow — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 05:01:55 GMT

For Big Red: Thanks for the reply. It's all good.

Slew em All: I agree about distance not being a concern for Dunkirk. I think he will run all day. For me, the big question is whether he is fast enough, and has enough early speed to stay with a quick horse like Quality Road at just 9 furlongs on a speed favoring track. If Dunkirk is running fast in the stretch of the Florida Derby, even if he does not win he could be the "Now" horse for Churchill. Unfortuantely, he could be kept out of the Kentucky Derby a due to a lack of graded earnings.

I do think Dunkirk has alot of potential. He has a smooth, very long stride and really does seem to bound over the surface. However, I do not see the Big Brown comparison that some have made given that Big brown had alot more early speed and had run much faster in the 2 races prior to his Florida Derby. As some have said, I see more of Big Brown in Quality Road. For the Florida Derby, I think Dunkirk is one race behind the development curve of Quality Road and Jojo, and that the 9 furlongs and track surface favor those two horses. Additionally, even with a rabbit, Dunkirk will be at a pace disadvantage, and may run out of ground before catching Quality Road and even Jojo. However, as the distances stretch out and they leave Gulfstream, I think things may start swinging to Dunkirk's advantage. The Kentucky Derby still might be too soon for Dunkirk, but I think he would be tough to beat in the Belmont or Travers later in the year.

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

Householder — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 03:15:18 GMT

Dunkirk better learn to read the form. POTN just spit a bullet running 5f in 59 flat finishing the six furlong work at 12 seconds for the final furlong. Tired? Take the Points reaction was to board a plane. That genius Hollendorfer put in another mile work on Chocolate Candy.

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

predict — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 02:01:04 GMT

Danger to Society will follow in his sire's footsteps, I do like Quality Road , but not here, thinking he runs second or third, just not necessary for a top effort yet. Dunkirk is exposed as lacking and we'll see a surprise in the top three, Stately Character.

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

Wanda — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 01:39:41 GMT

What's the story with Danger To Society Jason? 1 1/8 off works? I didn't catch any of his works, know anything about them?

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

Bobby Le — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 01:25:38 GMT

On the Rabbit theory

In my opinion , if you are pulling for Q Road , I would want the rabbit.I think it would be easier for him to get the 2 turns from a stalking postion rather on the lead for a mile and an eighth. I also forgot to mention I think the weight Q and Jo are picking up from the last race will play against them down the stretch.

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

Slew.em.All — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 01:17:34 GMT

What's all this rah-rah regarding QR? He won a 1-turn mile elongated sprint(basically),and Now he's the $h!#?..come on! Of course he's talented,but let's see how effective he is going a route of ground.Luckily he's racing @ speed favoring Gulfstream where his "type" is most dominant. And any beyers,split times,thoro-graphs or whatever coming out of Gulfstream,I personally take with a grain of salt. My opinion is: QR and JoJo will not be as impressive looking in the Fla.Derby.I Definately think JoJo's kick will not be effective going 1 1/8 miles.

Now,I'm not on Dunkirk's bandwagon,but it takes a very talented horse to do what he's done in his first 2 starts.Plus we know he can run all day.Going from his 1st start at 7f to another win at 1 1/8miles is not easy.That's a sign of class people,no matter how you try and spin-it. Either he needs more time to develop further or he just might be THIS good.But you can't say he doesn't have that IT factor..Haters! Peace Out.

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

Barbara — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 01:16:02 GMT

August, QR missed the work before this past weekend. He has had 2 and was supposed to have 3 as I recall. It won't be an excuse unless he loses, will it? He ran a high figure in the FOY - may have been taxing. Could bounce.

I do not blame the trainer for any of this. No need to defend Jerkens to me..(except when I see one of his maidens wildly blowing both turns as I recently did I do wonder;) But that has nothing to do with QR and he is obviously a fine trainer.

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

For Big Red — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 01:11:46 GMT

TO GUNBOW: Thanks for the clarification. You're absolutely right. It's easy to misunderstand something written. I apologize for misjudging your post to me. :)

TO DRAYNAY: Thanks. :)

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

Bobby Le — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 01:04:22 GMT

I believe Dunkirk is a legit contender. I actually think his experience going 2 turns and his work tab move him forward. With that said , I think Toby The Coal Man is a legit contender also. I'm looking a race with more questions and potential than anything. Toby sure seemed to get it together all of a sudden. He has plenty of experience going two turns. Nick Zito thinks he fits also. We have only one graded stkes winner in here and he flipped postions with another. Neither has gone 2 turns. I think Q Road and Jojo are very talented but are also vulnerable.

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

Draynay — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 00:18:48 GMT

Your facts were still very good Big Red thanks again. And.... Dunkirk is the morning line favorite ??? LOL... give me a break !!! He beats a bunch of average allowance horses in an average time and he is the morning favorite...lol... this horse is expensive that is all. Quality Road will show where the REAL Quality is !!! Dunkirk...lol.. get real.

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

Rocker — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 00:16:26 GMT

I just quickly looked over the Florida Derby and would like to share my thoughts.

1) I can't get away from the fact that horses that have run big beyer numbers in the 3Yr Preps at Gulfstream this year in their next start are no where to be found in their next start. With that said Quality Road 113 beyer in his last start on a speed favoring track looks really good on paper. I believe this horse is a good horse but I'm not a believer that he is as good as he appears.

He is a miler in my mind. 90 beyer two starts ago and then he jumps up 23 points to 113. I don't like to see huge jumps like that.

Everybody was in ah when Thisoneisforphil ran 117 in the sprint and then in the FOY he was nowhere to be found. Granted I believed that Thisoneisforphil is a sprinter.

Bottom line when it comes to Quality Road he's a good horse but he is not as great as people are making him out to be.

2) Dunkirk is visually impressive but his times tell you another story. Breaks his maiden 78 Allw win 98. Yes there is a 20 point jump but I believe this horse will get better with every start.

I've always liked how Pletcher brings along his horses. I like his works and I really believe this horse is going to run a big race. I personally don't think he needs the rabbit in the race but it will only help not hurt him. There looked to be some cheap speed in the race already. I think he probably wins the race and if he doesn't no worse than second.

3) Theregoesjojo- Is the VALUE of the race. He will be the third choice behind Dunkirk and QR. This horse is improving steadily with every start just like Fresian Fire. I want a horse that is getting better and better with each start. I don't want huge jumps in their beyer numbers like with what you have in QR.

TGJJ work on the 14th tells me he is feeling good and he shouldn't be overlooked. Yes QR beat him by 4 lengths in the FOY but like I said before the track was favoring speed and he was 7 lengths back but he was able to cut the deficit to 4 lengths and Desormeaux didn't give him the best of trips.

I guarantee that he finishes in front of QR and I believe the exacta box will be Dunkirk and TGJJ. I look forward to hearing from all you QR fans trying to explain why QR didn't hit the board on Saturday

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

GunBow — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 00:00:25 GMT

For Big Red:

I was not trying to be condescending. In fact, by pointing out the differences in Beyers and brisnet figs, I thought that my post could possibly be taken negatively. So, I put the "the other points made were valid" to give you some respect, not to be demeaning. Unfortuantely, sometimes subtlety is hard with only the written word, and for that I apologize. My intentions were the opposite of what you read into them.

What I wanted to say is that although you confused the Beyers and brisnet figures, the points you made were valid: 1) Both figures have Dunkirk improving alot in his 2nd race, perhaps too much. Did he really get THAT much better, or were the figs weighted upwards too much. And if the figs are correct, will he bounce? 2) That big bump in his 2nd fig (for both beyers and brisnet) has not been validated by the next-out performances of the also-rans. Thus, the quality of the field Dunkirk beat in that allowance has been thrown into question.

However, I did feel that I needed to clarify the issue of what figs you were citing, and then post the actual Beyers for the races you discussed. I was just stating the facts. In your last post on the subject you had written "Are brisnet's speed figures not the same as those shown in DRF PPs". Barabara had responded "FBR - yeah, Brisnet must be different". I commented as a 3rd party by stating that Barabara was corect, that Beyers and Brisnet figures are different, and then provided the Beyers for Dunkirk. A number of posters had commented on your original post, quoting the 107 figure for Dunkirk. I just thought some clarification was needed.

The 2nd part of my earlier email was to point out that your comments have validity and that they should not be dismissed just because you confused the figs.

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

longwaytomay — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 23:55:13 GMT

I will be betting a jo-jo, quality road exacta box. I too am not as impressed with dunkirk. slow time, bad field, no foundation.

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

August Song — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 23:27:30 GMT

Note to Barbara, I believe if any of the contenders in the Florida Derby are likely to regress, the one most likely to, I feel, would be Theregoesjojo. Why? McPeek had said weeks ago that he would not have his horse "cranked up for the Fountain of Youth." He was going to have the horse cranked up for his next race. Unnfortunately, Theregoesjojo missed the crucial work he was suppose to have because the track was sloppy. Oh, the horse worked out that day but, McPeek (as most trainers do) do not want to breeze their horses, especially their good ones, on a less than ideal track, especially with what is at risk there. Thegoesjojo had a mediocre sort of workout. I will be very surprised if he hits the board on Saturday. Jimmy Jerkens, on the other hand, must have been paying attention, because he "snuck" Quality Road out of the barn while it was still dark and the track was fast, and before the rains came. He said he got his horse's first half of his workout in 48 and change but, "it was so dark I really had difficulty seeing the horse." Jimmy may do a little something tomorrow or Friday "just to open up his lungs a little bit." P.S. - Where do you think the clockers were early Saturday morning when Quality Road worked out? They were home sleeping. You can rest assured Jimmy got the work that Quality Road needed, and on a dry track. If Quality Road doesn't win Saturday, it won't be because of Jimmy Jerkens. He spent 20 years as his dad's assistant, before he decided to go out on his own. And I'll plant another seed in your head. Who knows what time Quality Road really worked in? Whatever it was, I'm certain it was close to exactly what Jimmy wanted Quality Road to do.

Good Luck, whatever you do.

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

Coldfacts — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 23:23:40 GMT

Jason, Dunkirk is bred in the purple and if he runs to his pedigree he should be an exception colt. He will be facing a colt in the FL Derby that I think has the best pedigree of the 2006 crop. However, this colt has not been running to this pedigree. The colt is Stately Character (Pleasant Tap - London Valley)

This colt’s first four generations contain the winners of 10 Triple Crown races. Grand sire Pleasant Colony (Kentucky Derby & Preakness) His sire’s dam Never Knock who was also the dam of Derby winner Go For Gin, was sired by Stage Door Johnny (Belmont) The grand sire of his dam London Valley is Seattle Slew (Triple Crown) His second dam was sired by Riva Ridge (Kentucky Derby & Belmont) His third dam was sired by Damascus (Belmont & Preakness)

His sire Pleasant Tap has been one of the most versatile participants in the Breeder Cup history. He participated in four different races over a four year period. He was sixth in the 1989 Breeder Cup Juvenile; eight in the 1990 Breeders Cup Turf; second in 1991 Breeders Cup Sprint and 1992 Breeders Cup Classic. It appears he got better with age.

Stately Character is bred to get 10 furlongs pulling a bus. Sadly he appears to lack the class of the top colt in the FL Derby field. Could it be that he is a late developer like his sire? I have heard the term “Light bulb going on” used regularly. Could his pedigree light bulb get stitched on for an upset in the FL Derby?

Your thoughts will be appreciated.

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

For Big Red — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 23:04:42 GMT

TO GUN BOW: I read your post above in which you discuss my use of Brisnet speed figures. You wrote: "The other points For Big Red made were valid." Well, gee. I can rest easy now.

The fact of the matter is that, with unemployment heading toward 11% here in California, anything that's FREE is very welcome. I don't have access to DRF PPs, and came across the Brisnet free ones while searching for Friesan Fire's PPs. Since I never used Brisnet before, I had no way of knowing the speed figures in their PPs are not Beyer figures.

Sorry if I confused anyone. It was completely unintentional.

Perhaps I'm being thin-skinned about your post. But your tone seemed unnecessarily condescending to me, especially since, when Barbara asked her question, I quickly responded that I was using Brisnet PP's. I provided a link, and also was the one who asked her if there is a difference between Brisnet and Beyer.

When a person asks a question, as I did re Brisnet vs. Beyer figures, I should think it's obvious they lack knowledge about that issue.

In any case, I don't use speed figures in any way except as a rough guide. Both Brisnet and Beyer have Dunkirk jumping way up in his ALW race from his maiden race. Yet, in actually watching the video of both races, I agreed with Jason. To my eye, the colt actually seemed to run less easily in the ALW.

To see what I mean, compare vids of Old Fashioned's race in the Rebel to Dunkirk's ALW. You'll see similar tired action from both. Both were were stopping. The difference between the two races is that the Rebel had a strong closer in Win Willy, while there wasn't anything of quality behind Dunkirk.

Dunkirk may be something special, but IMO he didn't show it in his two races. The Florida Derby will tell the tale.

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

Householder — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 22:23:04 GMT

The rabbit is good. It is like OF's loss. Here is another who better learn to run with some speed or learn to rate. The first turn in the Derby is always a rodeo. Pushing, shoving, climbing, clipping heels, trying to "savage" one another. Perhaps some barrel racing or cutting horse breeding may be the way to go.