Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

ken — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 18:14:52 GMT

August,

Interesting facts you posted there, however, I still don't like a horse that got passed at 7 furlongs on dirt even though it was his first race back. He was ultra impressive in the FOY, true, but now he has to go 1 and 1/8 and then 1 and 1/4. Unless the jock was told to not push him AT ALL in that comeback race it leaves a bad taste in my mouth for him to get 1 and 1/4

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

Ken — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 18:07:27 GMT

Draynay, that is called strategy. If Quality Road can't avoid a speed duel does he deserve to win?

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

Wanda — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 15:49:45 GMT

Draynay: Haskin also pointed out that TP has done this before with zero results. Running a rabbit to ensure a honest pace is a smart move IF it works. Remember it's a business and these guys are pretty smart business men/women.

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

Draynay — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 14:27:26 GMT

Great post August Song.... I could not agree more. Steve Haskin wrote that unless a rabbit is thrown in to alter the race Quality Road will just run around slowly and win??? Did I read that right or am I missing something? I guess we should ALWAYS throw in horses that can't win to mess up the outcome. Talk about trying to steal a race..... unreal !!!

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

Barbara — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 14:21:59 GMT

August, it would be nice to have a superstar.

On his sire, Elusive Quality, he did not get many unimpressive mares in 05 at 100k stud fee, the year after Smarty won the Derby....

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

ezzy — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 09:53:42 GMT

what is this a freak contest? Dunkirk is no Big Brown that much we all know so could we all just wait till after the Florida derby then we can all say how good he is or how over-rated he was! bottom line is he exudes class and has a good vibe around him! I know I'm routing for him Saturday but I'm practical beating that field, Quality road in particular could mean he's special. till then, my lips are sealed.

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

August Song — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 06:32:21 GMT

If you knew what happened to Quality Road during the race, and to still be able to run the type of race that he did, and to win the way he did. He was drawing away from Theregoesjojo in the stretch. Make no mistake. McPeek recognizes the type of horse that his horse is running against. A lot is at stake but, jojo probably doesn't get to go to the Derby. Well, we might be looking at greatness here. Richard Migliore, who was getting on Jimmy's horses last summer, and was initially scheduled to ride Quality Road in his first race but, because of a conflict/commitment to ride Desert Code (the winner of the Breeders Cup Turf sprint) he had to be replaced. Richard alluded to, during an interview, the characterisics that can make for a special racehorse. He said, "Quality Road is the complete package........and I have no doubt that the horse will be able to run as far as he needs to run." And, somebody else analyzed the Fountain of Youth. He said, "The Fountain of Youth was the only one-mile race all week with a sub-46 opening half; in only one other race was the opening half under 47 seconds. In the Davona Dale, Frolic's Dream, one of the quickest fillies around, led with a split of 47.39. As for the Fountain of Youth's three-quarter split, 1:09.40, that stands out like a redwood in a pine forest. The average three-quarter split for the week was 1:12.84 ...... and in only four races was the opening six-furlong split under 1:13, the second- fastest mile of the week, 1:37.67, which of course, is about 13 lengths slower than Quality Road's effort. And what does this all mean? Well, for one thing, it means the Fountain of Youth was superlative. For another, is means Quality Road, even though he has yet to race around two turns, probably should be rated higher than No. 4. And, for yet another, it means he could become a superstar."

P.S.- The fountain of Youth was run signicantly faster than the mile Grade II stakes race for older horses run the following week-end, and won by Smooth Air.

Say hello to the next superstar: Quality Road.

Watch for the stud fee on Elusive Quality to begin to zoom up. Thus far with a limited number of crops, and from an unimpressive list of broodmares to date, he has sired an unusually large percentage of graded stakes winners, surely a future Chef-De-Race consideration in the making, is what we are witnessing.

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

GunBow — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 05:17:31 GMT

I went back and watched Dunkirk's maiden and alowance races. I can see why his maiden win received such a low Beyer (as well as other speed figs). After a half in 45 and 1, the front runners went the next quarter in 26 and 4 for a 6 furlong split of 1:12. That 26 and 4 internal split is ridiculously slow; no wonder Dunkirk was able to go by the frontrunners so quickly, they were virtually walking by then.

As for his allowance win, the time and figs came back much better, and I really do love this colt's stride. He appears to cover ground so effortlessly. Yet, like many others, I wasnt blown away be the performance and do not think he beat a strong field. He still seems slightly green, running in spurts before being able to level off. Additionally, he hasnt shown that instant acceleration, that pure turn of brilliance, or nimble athleticism. However,that could be merely a matter of perception, given that his strides or so long. His steady, bounding strides suggest he'll be at his best beyond 9 furlongs.

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

GunBow — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 05:01:55 GMT

For Big Red: Thanks for the reply. It's all good.

Slew em All: I agree about distance not being a concern for Dunkirk. I think he will run all day. For me, the big question is whether he is fast enough, and has enough early speed to stay with a quick horse like Quality Road at just 9 furlongs on a speed favoring track. If Dunkirk is running fast in the stretch of the Florida Derby, even if he does not win he could be the "Now" horse for Churchill. Unfortuantely, he could be kept out of the Kentucky Derby a due to a lack of graded earnings.

I do think Dunkirk has alot of potential. He has a smooth, very long stride and really does seem to bound over the surface. However, I do not see the Big Brown comparison that some have made given that Big brown had alot more early speed and had run much faster in the 2 races prior to his Florida Derby. As some have said, I see more of Big Brown in Quality Road. For the Florida Derby, I think Dunkirk is one race behind the development curve of Quality Road and Jojo, and that the 9 furlongs and track surface favor those two horses. Additionally, even with a rabbit, Dunkirk will be at a pace disadvantage, and may run out of ground before catching Quality Road and even Jojo. However, as the distances stretch out and they leave Gulfstream, I think things may start swinging to Dunkirk's advantage. The Kentucky Derby still might be too soon for Dunkirk, but I think he would be tough to beat in the Belmont or Travers later in the year.

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

Householder — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 03:15:18 GMT

Dunkirk better learn to read the form. POTN just spit a bullet running 5f in 59 flat finishing the six furlong work at 12 seconds for the final furlong. Tired? Take the Points reaction was to board a plane. That genius Hollendorfer put in another mile work on Chocolate Candy.

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

predict — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 02:01:04 GMT

Danger to Society will follow in his sire's footsteps, I do like Quality Road , but not here, thinking he runs second or third, just not necessary for a top effort yet. Dunkirk is exposed as lacking and we'll see a surprise in the top three, Stately Character.

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

Wanda — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 01:39:41 GMT

What's the story with Danger To Society Jason? 1 1/8 off works? I didn't catch any of his works, know anything about them?

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

Bobby Le — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 01:25:38 GMT

On the Rabbit theory

In my opinion , if you are pulling for Q Road , I would want the rabbit.I think it would be easier for him to get the 2 turns from a stalking postion rather on the lead for a mile and an eighth. I also forgot to mention I think the weight Q and Jo are picking up from the last race will play against them down the stretch.

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

Slew.em.All — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 01:17:34 GMT

What's all this rah-rah regarding QR? He won a 1-turn mile elongated sprint(basically),and Now he's the $h!#?..come on! Of course he's talented,but let's see how effective he is going a route of ground.Luckily he's racing @ speed favoring Gulfstream where his "type" is most dominant. And any beyers,split times,thoro-graphs or whatever coming out of Gulfstream,I personally take with a grain of salt. My opinion is: QR and JoJo will not be as impressive looking in the Fla.Derby.I Definately think JoJo's kick will not be effective going 1 1/8 miles.

Now,I'm not on Dunkirk's bandwagon,but it takes a very talented horse to do what he's done in his first 2 starts.Plus we know he can run all day.Going from his 1st start at 7f to another win at 1 1/8miles is not easy.That's a sign of class people,no matter how you try and spin-it. Either he needs more time to develop further or he just might be THIS good.But you can't say he doesn't have that IT factor..Haters! Peace Out.

re: Is Dunkirk the Real Deal?

Barbara — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 01:16:02 GMT

August, QR missed the work before this past weekend. He has had 2 and was supposed to have 3 as I recall. It won't be an excuse unless he loses, will it? He ran a high figure in the FOY - may have been taxing. Could bounce.

I do not blame the trainer for any of this. No need to defend Jerkens to me..(except when I see one of his maidens wildly blowing both turns as I recently did I do wonder;) But that has nothing to do with QR and he is obviously a fine trainer.