Florida Derby Analysis

re: Florida Derby Analysis

August Song — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 23:33:02 GMT

Barbara I was on the previous blog and read your message about one of Jimmy's horses, who blew both turns in a 1 1/8 miles race. It's really kind of ironic, the timing of reading your message. You saw the race. So did I. Check out the pedigree, and who his sire is!!! Then, tell me, it's the trainer's or jockey's fault. I predict you will see this talented horse win several stakes races before he's done racing. His name is Convocation. And for blowing that first turn, and being 20 lengths behind the next to last horse, and then making up all that ground and then being 4th, and still having a chance to win, until he blew the 2nd turn. Put him in your Virtual Stable, and watch what happens. LOL

re: Florida Derby Analysis

slyder — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 18:46:45 GMT

GunBow,

I'm not dissapointed in the least at the 103 Beyer given Quality Road. I expected a "bounce" from his last monstrous race. I think it sets him up perfectly for another move forward on KY. Derby day. He's going to be awfully hard to beat.

re: Florida Derby Analysis

Mike Relva — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 03:47:11 GMT

TO: SLEWem.ALL

Did you notice last week that Adam REMOVED that stupid post from his blog? Not only that,but he sent an email stating he knew it wasn't mine. lol

re: Florida Derby Analysis

GunBow — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 03:14:27 GMT

A further note on Quality Road being assigned a 103 Beyer for his Florida Derby win. This mean Jojo only received about a 90. Before the figure came out, I suppose it was possible for Jojo fans to think that Quality Road and Dunkirk just freaked, and that Jojo actually ran fairly fast. Had Quality Road been given a 113 for the Florida Derby, that would have been true as Jojo would have received a 100 Beyer. As it turned out, Quality Road's Beyer is only 103.

I think a key variable the Beyer team used to come up with a 103 for Quality Road is the performance of Stately Character. Prior to the Florida Derby, Stately Character had run 8 races, but had never Beyered over 83. On top of that, his Beyers were not showing improvement; his last 4 races were given Beyers of 82-83-21-82. Stately Character looked like a horse that was doubtful to improve in the Florida Derby, so his consistent 81-83 Beyer performance could be used as a reference point in the Florida Derby. This, apparently, is what the Beyer crew did.

If it was assumed that Stately Character ran another 82-86 Beyer in the Florida Derby (maybe giving him a few points for some slight improvement), the Beyers for the horses ahead of him start falling into line. Stately Character finished 2 and a half lengths behind Jojo; 2.5 lengths translates into 4 Beyer points at 9 furlongs, so Jojo got a 90 Beyer. Jojo finished 6 lengths behind Dunkirk, or 10 Beyer points. So, Dunkirk gets a 100. And Dunkirk was beaten 1.75 lengths by Quality Road, which is 3 Beyer points, so Quality Road gets a 103.

The Beyer organization claims to use final times as a guide for their figures. However, and they don't hide it, almost as important in making the figures is past form. Often, figures are adjusted to "better" fit the previous performances of the field. Thus, if the Beyer fig assigned to a race is much higher than that field normally runs, the Beyer team may adjust the figure downwards.

Did the Beyer team adjust the Florida Derby downwards? Perhaps. Had Quality Road been given a 113 for the Florida Derby, it would have meant Stately Character ran a 96, which doesnt seem likely. However, more unusual things have happened.

re: Florida Derby Analysis

GunBow — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 02:43:54 GMT

Maybe I was correct with my initial impressions that Gulfstream was "ridiculously" fast on Saturday. Evidently, the Beyer team agrees. Quality Road's Beyer for the Florida Derby is only a 103 (w/ Dunkirk 100).

Beyers shouldn't be everything, but that 103 causes me to pause. Clearly, the Beyer crew doesn't feel that the time of the Florida Derby was particularly special given how fast the track was.

I have to admit, I am a little disappointed w/ the figure; I thought a 107 would be at the low end of possible figs. But, the track was fast. Maidens went 1:09 for 6 furlongs.

For those who were already giving the Kentucky Derby to Quality Road, I would have to think you are somewhat disappointed by a 103 Beyer?

re: Florida Derby Analysis

Slew.em.All — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 00:39:48 GMT

OK Relva,that was a 2 1/3 line doosie.Keep it up my man,you'll get there.

re: Florida Derby Analysis

Mike Relva — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 00:07:26 GMT

TO:SLEW em.ALL

The only thing you bring to the table is showing how little you really know. Better keep your day job! Spin it any way you want,but you didn't pick QR to win.

re: Florida Derby Analysis

LDP — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 22:16:13 GMT

August Song,

Chill, i'm supporting a horse i like big deal. IMO, notice that, i said my opinion, that he ran a better race. Honestly one point i agree with you in is that Dunkirk never passed QR, i think he drew even and thats it. Also, at first, after the race i thought i saw a tired horse too, but then i saw them hosing him off and he was shaking and tossing his head, dancing around some. I thought well maybe he wasn't as tired as originally thought. I run track, and i know darn well if i run my hardest i'm going to be tired after i'm done, but normally after i catch my breath i feel fine and am ready for my next event. That may have been the case with Dunkirk, out of breath and tired after a fantastic effort, but once allowed some time to catch him breath, he was fine. Also yes i do know what i'm talking about with race horse, for one i actually called the Dubai world Cup. Told just about everyone if Well Armed gets the lead and get to make easy fractions he's won. Though he surprised me by winning by so much. Anyhow, my point is QR didn't need to drift out, was it a good move yes, because as you said it allows the horse to see his competitor. Again, though that was not my point, i said that just in case someone said well QR ran 3 wide in the turn so why is dunkirk running 5 wide a big deal. Well Dunkirk was circling horses, he kinka had to run wide, QR had nobody to his inside, so he didn't have to do that. See my point.

re: Florida Derby Analysis

Slew.em.All — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 21:36:06 GMT

It's OK for the QR backers to gloat about his win,your horse won,that's fine.Like I said after the FOY,he's talented.But he's not my Derby pick.Neither is Dunkirk,..I just knew he was better than what his detractor's thought of him,and he proved it yesterday.

I know it's difficult for people that live in Pigeon-holes to understand the fact of QR's perfect trip/set-up in his GP races..Trust me,he Won't have that Luxury come May @ Churchill.We'll see who else is going to the Derby in a few weeks,but as of now with "quality" speed horses like OF and The Pamps' waiting in the wings,and not the "cheap sprinters speed" he faced at Gulfstream,It'll be a different scenario by far. No thanks,but I'm still sticking with my top 3 battle hardened horses:I Want Revenge,Friesan Fire & POTN,who have proven that they can weave thru traffic,overcome adversity and still motor down the lane.In my eyes,all QR has shown is that he can sit behind cheap-speed and take over when they fall back.What will happen if things don't go his way or he runs into some kind of new circumstances in the 20 field Derby,which will occur more than likely.Don't forget,he barely beat Dunkirk who was supposedly a "slow,over-hyped plodder" remember? He's had it far too easy in Florida against lesser,we'll see what happens vs. better.

It seems like QR is on the verge of sweeping the Triple Crown when reading some of the posts,like August Song's..which btw: can you "enlighten" us with that "thing that happened in the FOY to QR" but has never been revealed,I'm sure us absent minded curmudgeons are just dying to hear about it,your Highness!...barf!

Ranalgulzion: I'm as serious as a heart attack,and tend to believe my capping' skills are intact :)lol, but after your boy Jose Adan's performance in the UAE Derby yesterday,one must question yours. j/k lol..stay thirsty my friend.

Mike Relva: Man-up for what?I didn't pick a horse in the Fla.Derby,I said the distance will expose QR and JoJo,so I was 1/2 right or wrong however you wanna' look at it.At least I try and bring something to this table,but Minions like you with empty thoughts seem to constantly go to your Rolodex full of 1-line Doosies.

The Derby is in 5 weeks in KY,they didn't run it yesterday @ GP. Peace Out People!

re: Florida Derby Analysis

August Song — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 20:09:49 GMT

The bloggers here are getting desperate. Fast track, slow track, it would have not made a bit of difference for Dunkirk. He would have still lost. Coldfacts just showed you how consistent the last 3 runnings of the Florida Derby have been timewise. You want to blame someone? Blame Dunkirk's owners and the all-knowing Toddster for their boneheaded decision to run Dunkirk in the Florida Derby. They knew IN ADVANCE that the FIELD FOR THE Florida Derby WAS NOT GOING TO BE BIG. THEY KNEW IN ADVANCE THAT THERE WAS NOT GOING TO BE MUCH SPEED OUTSIDE OF QUALITY ROAD. THEY WERE EVEN STUPID ENOUGH TO BELIEVE THAT ENTERING THEIR $2.7 MILLION MAIDEN, EUROPE, WOULD POSSIBLY MAKE A DIFFERENT, OUTSIDE OF WASTING ANOTHER HORSE. That's what stupid people, with big egos do, after they make boneheaded decisions. They blame the track. It's your fault, our horse lost. Our horse was best. LOL

"The fault dear Brutus is not in the stars. It is in ourselves."

Message to LDP, you need to learn how races are raced. Being a blogger here, you may think that you know but, it's obvious that you don't. If you get the opportunity sometime to speak with a good jockey, or even a good trainer about racing and riding, it will prove immeasurable. I'm addressing your comment that Quality Road "had no real reason to drift out there was nobody to his inside". First of all, he didn't really drift out. Johnnie V. once he realized Dunkirk and Gomez had surged to his outside, (There is a difference of opinion as to whether Dunkirk passed Quality Road. Johnnie V. said he didn't. Jimmy said he did. I watched the race, and I agree with Jimmy), good jockeys will guide a horse to be able to see the horse outside of him/her. Most horses are naturally competitive, and once they see the other competitor(s), they will respond accordingly if they are at all competitive. Since Dunkirk had made his sudden move, and Johnnie V. didn't actually notice him until he was passed, he did the absolutely, positively appropriate thing with Quality Road. He shook him up and engaed him to see the competition.

And, as for your belief that Quality Road had an easier race, that would be arguable, too. Quality Road was supposed to "bounce". He had just posted a 113 Beyer. That could not be done again. His effort in the Fountain of Youth would take it's toll on him. He wasn't supposed to like the distance. He had never tried 2 turns before. Dunkirk, who was coming off a 2 turn win, who was regally bred, who the connections had spent $3.7 million on would have at his mercy. et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. As someone else wrote, if Dunkirk, who had his chance, and won. People supporting him would have been crowing all of the above. Unfortunately, for them, Dunkirk lost. And, I would suggest before you attempt to support him again, that you see what the horse is dealing with, and how he is responding. I was on another site, and some knowledgeable posters were clear dismayed by Dunkirk performance, writing that the horse was spent and weaving in and out, having given it's all and staggered home. Let us see how, and if, he recovers. Pushing a young horse too far, too soon, has been many a good horse's undoing. Stupid decisions and big egos will do that.

re: Florida Derby Analysis

John T — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 19:17:13 GMT

Dunkirk ran a great race as this was his first attempt with stakes company and there is no doubt Quality Road is a

top class colt.Looking forward to his next race.

re: Florida Derby Analysis

Matthew W — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 19:13:29 GMT

Dray, ya better pack an extra pair of Depends on Derby Day!! HA! Good luck to ya mate!

re: Florida Derby Analysis

Matthew W — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 19:10:06 GMT

RE: Tightening up the track for faster times/track records/on big days.....Should not the public (ie the gamblers) be informed of the track's intentions--a glib surface told us volumes about Bellamy Road, didn't it?!...what I'm trying to say is, don't get carried away with what Quality Road did on Sat...

re: Florida Derby Analysis

DONNA — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 18:51:50 GMT

Boo Hoo says Todd Pletcher. How unprofessional can a top trainer get? Shame on his excuse for Dunkirk not winning Saturday. Quality Road ran a fantastic race and hats off to him and his connections. If the big D. was as good as everyone said he was then he would have won, no excuses needed. As for my faith in JoJo it is now gone. He's kaput. On to bigger and better things next Saturday so we can weed more of the imposters out of the mix.

re: Florida Derby Analysis

GunBow — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 18:23:40 GMT

Codlfacts:

The Gulstream track was fast Saturday, much faster than it had been all meet (most 9 furlongs, even by grade 1 older horses, were run in over 1:50). I also noted on Friday, after Justwhistledixie won the Bonnie Miss in 149, that the track seemed to be faster than it had been most of the meet. When describing the track as "ridiculously" fast, I was comparing it to the rest of the current meet, not previous Florida Derby cards.

Even so, saying the track was "ridiciulously" fast was probably an overstatement. And, you are correct that the track usually is fast on Florida Derby day. However, I never meant to attribute Quality Road's track record entirely to the fast track. That's why I predicted the Beyer to be 107-113(and maybe higher) in my earlier post.

In comparison to the 107-113 Beyer I predicted for Quality Road, Big Brown got a 106 for his Florida Derby and Scat Daddy received a 98 for his win in 07'. So, by predicting Quality Road's Beyer to be so high, I was acknowledging that he ran faster than Scat Daddy and even Big Brown. Basically, the track yesterday was the just as fast as on Florida Derby day in 07' and 08'. The reason Quality Road's time was faster than Scat Daddy and Big Brown is because he ran a better race. I recognize this, which is why I think his Beyer will be so high.

According to Beyer figs, Quality Road is actually faster than Big Brown. Big Brown ran a 106 in just his 3rd start, winning the Florida Derby, and then ran a 109 in the Kentucky Derby. In his 3rd start, Quality Road ran a 113 in the FOY. If his Beyer for the Florida Derby is over 109, which is plausible, then he will be ahead of Big Brown. And while Big Brown never really improved, according to the Beyers, after his 2nd start (he earned a 106 Beyer in his allowance race comeback, 106 for the Florida Derby, 109-Kentucky Derby, 100-Preakness, 106-Haskell, 105-Monmouth Turf Stakes), it is entirely possible Quality Road could continue to progress. We shall see.

re: Florida Derby Analysis

Barbara — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 18:03:18 GMT

I was very impressed by both QR and Dunkirk yesterday. Felt sorry for TGJJ. Don't think he was going to beat those top two, but that was a classic Kent D. synapse lapse ride.

QR is a deserving Derby favorite as of today as far as I am concerned. I doubted him a bit and he is the real deal. I am sticking with POTN as my Derby horse, but love this whole crop so far.

My Derby Top 10:

Pioneerof the Nile

Quality Road

Friesan Fire

The Pamplemousse

I Want Revenge

Dunkirk

Chocolate Candy

Desert Party

Papa Clem

Old Fashioned

Imperial Council

Dunkirk could be the best horse in two month's time - I hope he stays out of the Derby as I think it would serve him well in the longer term.

re: Florida Derby Analysis

GunBow — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 17:41:33 GMT

August Song:

I watched the Fountain of Youth for the 10th time, and then posted that I came away even more impressed with Quality Road the more I watched. I wrote that I had no doubts that Quality Road will be able to rate, especially since he broke between This Ones For Phil and Taqurub in the Fountain of Youth and never showed any tendencies of being headstrong. I also wrote that Jojo made up no ground on Quality Road in the FOY stretch and would be suprised if he did so in the Florida Derby. What's your beef with that post?

re: Florida Derby Analysis

GunBow — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 17:33:17 GMT

August Song, ColdFacts:

I liked Quality Road going into the Florida Derby, picked him to win, and wrote than I have him ranked #1 on my list. What else do you want me to do? No, I'm not going to give him the Kentucky Derby trophy yet. He still has to win it first.

Coldfacts:

By writing that in the Kentucky Derby that Quality Road will be facing "better speed", I didnt mean better than Quality Road. I was comparing the speed horses that will be in the Knetucky Derby field to Casey's on Call. You don't think Old Fashioned, Papa Clem, The Pamplemousse, and I Want Revenge are better than Casey's On Call? I wasnt comparing these horses to Quality Road; I was comparing them to Casey, and showing how the Kentucky Derby pace is going to be more contentitious than the pace of the Florida Derby. However, I also wrote that I think that Johnny V can take back Quality Road 5-6 lengths in the Derby and be fine. I think Quality Road can rate perfectly.

For all those disparaging Dunkirk, if Dunkirk is that bad, what makes Quality Road's performance so impressive? If Dunkirk has no shot in the Derby or any other major race, then why should the fact that Quality Road beat him be impressive? You make it sound like Quality Road beat nothing in the Florida Derby.

Listen, Dunkirk is a good horse, and he ran a big race. That's what makes Quality Road's win so impressive. He stared down another good horse and came out on top. The fact that he won this grade 1 race, in track record time, and spanked another good horse doing so is what makes the performance so special. By slamming Dunkirk, you are only lessening Quality Road's achievement.

re: Florida Derby Analysis

Matthew W — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 17:25:22 GMT

Dray I'll tellya why-why-why we're still talkin about Dunkirk---He did what no horse did Sat--he made up ground!....Your guy did what EVERY horse did Sat--He won on the lead....Ha Ha but I like Quality Road...I'm just not gonna annoint him HOY just yet!

re: Florida Derby Analysis

Matthew W — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 17:21:17 GMT

GunBow I concur---The Pamplemousse is winning on a track that DOESN'T favor speed while Quality Road just won an a very glib surface indeed! Can you say "fake dirt track"? How can bloggers brag about a track record, while at the same time just toss the guy who actually closed and also ran lights out? I was impressed with Quality Road--He needs to show me more but is coming to Kentucky with a head of steam! He won't have his "Florida Pace"...I also think he won't have his "Florida Track"....But my eyes are opened/I cannot deny I was impressed....

re: Florida Derby Analysis

August Song — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 17:15:19 GMT

Coldfacts, your post was excellent.

Dunkirk most probably, doesn't make it to the Kentucky Derby, unless something drastic changes. For the last few years, the least amount of graded stakes earnings to qualify for the Kentucky Derby has been $165,000. Pletcher or the owners did something stupid by running Dunkirk where they did. They will not race him again before the Derby is run. Yep, all of a sudden, they're thinking what is best for their $3.7 million dollar horse. They will wait, and see what happens. I believe he misses the Derby, and only will run in the Belmont but, what do I know? Pimlico racecourse has tighter turns and can be speed favoring, and less to his liking, as a committed closer that he is. And this is just the obvious, superficial stuff. I won't begin to touch on how Dunkirk's psyche had to be affected by yesterday race. He knows exactly what happened. He surged to the lead, and the other horse fought back and pulled away from him. We will see if he can recover, and how long it may take (another reason why they opt to bypass the Preakness).

re: Florida Derby Analysis

Mike Relva — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 17:10:52 GMT

TO:LDP

You are on target regarding what you stated earlier about Smarty Jones.

re: Florida Derby Analysis

Matthew W — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 17:09:51 GMT

Pletcher lodged a complaint with the track BEFORE the Fla Derby---I don't view that as sour grapes---Dunkirk was in a position where he had to win the race to qualify for Kentucky---I wonder out loud WHY some tracks seem to need a rocket fast surface for their big days---I thought Dunkirk ran lights out--he was beaten by a real nice colt, there's no doubt about that...BTW was that a "pro-ride" frontrunner out for a public workout in Dubai or what!! Dubai was like Florida, frontrunner city---But the pace WON'T be soft at Churchill this year if The Pamplemousse goes, in that respect there's many questions about Quality Road and Dunkirk that were not answered Sat---on to Churchill....

re: Florida Derby Analysis

Mike Relva — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 17:02:27 GMT

TO:SLEW em. ALL

I knew you wouldn't "man up" after QR won. Individuals like yourself have such a fragile ego that you find trouble in admitting you blew it.

re: Florida Derby Analysis

Mike Relva — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 16:59:35 GMT

TO:GUNBOW

I was one of the individuals that liked WellArmed,also QR. Mike Watchmaker is "in love with his own voice",I can't stand him,period!