Florida Derby Thoughts - One Day After

re: Florida Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Sarah — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 04:01:03 GMT

I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I don't know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.

Sarah

http://adoptpet.info

re: Florida Derby Thoughts - One Day After

BigWill — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 04:44:37 GMT

Mark these words.... at 150K he'll be the last in, but he'll clearly be the first under the wire....DUNKIRK!

re: Florida Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Slew.em.All — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 20:32:25 GMT

August Song: I have a feeling you'll be singing the Stormy May Blues after the Ky Derby is over with.Seems like you have it all figured out already.We'll see.

Relva: nothing is for sure,but in this case: IWR is the winner.

re: Florida Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Mike Relva — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 19:03:01 GMT

TO: GUNBOW

I agree with you totally!

re: Florida Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Mike Relva — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 19:00:39 GMT

TO:SLEW.em.ALL

You will eat your woods after the Wood is done!

re: Florida Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Slew.em.All — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 18:36:38 GMT

nickie: I never said IC won't improve off the Gotham,he should.But to think he'll make up the 8 1/2 lenghts on IWR is wishful thinking.Even Shug's camp said,if IWR runs the same race,it's over.Simple!...unless IWR takes a major step-back,he should win decisively.Judging by the way he's been training,that's not likely to happen.

re: Florida Derby Thoughts - One Day After

marc W — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 16:40:30 GMT

ANYONE that is solid ---right now--on his Derby pick without the benefit of "all the preps" doesn't gamble. (or loses regularly-bet #3 all the time and you be right occasionally) Is "I told you so" or "I picked him first" going to make you a star or put money in your pocket? Just because I picked FF at the start of the year and still like him today doesn't mean I will invest on him Derby day--although the chances are good. I still have my WW to hopefully cash on in the AR Derby (if he wins the Derby I already am in good shape--still not in my top 5 but I liked the odds) and there are some nice betting OP's--I think Josie Carroll's old horse may run well for Dutrow in the Bluegrass.

I have a short story--I have had (owned) both thoroughbreds and harness horses. One day while on vacation in FL one of my harness horses was racing at Woodbine-the driver in his last race said he was sick he got him in so much trouble said he would jog next time-bet your money -I am.

Next time arrived but I was in FL on vacation now, so I went to Pompano and bet $500---he had every chance in the stretch but couldn't go by the leader and got beat about by a head---The man next to me watching the same TV was screaming stiff-he didn't try to go by-- telling the other 5 or 6 of us around the TV the same--finally I had had enough and informed him I owned the horse and showed him my bets.

He said my driver stiffed the horse you just don't know it and continued to lecture me.

Sometimes no matter what the situation and facts--some people are always right.

As cocky of an A-H I can be I am smart enough to know there are smarter people than me. As a gambler I know even with pocket queens and a queen on the river if two aces or kings also show I am not a cinch. You do not go all in with a hand that could lose until all cards show unless you are bluffing. As for Derby picks I will guarantee you can't make everyone fold.

re: Florida Derby Thoughts - One Day After

marc W — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 15:35:43 GMT

Jason

I HOPE you are looking to get even on Giant Oak---NOW is the time--or never!

Even I, who would definitely not be considered as his biggest fan will be using him in all positions in Chicago. I am suspect of Musket Man and feel he has to best the Pletchers. He was good enough to run a very well beaten forth in a tough prep. If he has any talent he can win.

This is his chance

Slew---no Derby picture ---this is a big pot with a suspect field--IF "I" owned him he would be in there--The Derby?-Why break a horses spirit when there is soooooooooo much money out there and Graded Status for 3 yr olds.

re: Florida Derby Thoughts - One Day After

nickie — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 12:13:43 GMT

slew 'em...lemme get this straight...Shug is all wet in his hopes that his charge will improve, but Mullins is rite because he has said his guy will improve?...please help me understand...if you like Iwanna great, but let's not go into the "world of Freud"![and for the record Shug is breathing easier that you respect him, and sez he will give you 3 shots a side]

re: Florida Derby Thoughts - One Day After

August Song — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 06:58:03 GMT

I can hardly wait for the lead horses in the Derby to run faster than 1:09.40 for the first 6 furlongs and 1:35 for the mile, so Quality Road and Johnnie V. can cruise on up, the last quarter of a mile and draw off. Say, wait a minute. Didn't he do that in the Fountain of Youth on a decidedly slow Gulfstream racetrace that day, and just sat behind a very slow horse by the name of This Ones For Phil, who he was very lucky to just beat him by over 10 lengths, drawing out? Hmmm, he bounced in the Florida Derby from that earlier effort, and was probably just very lucky that Pletcher and McPeek, and their horses were in a giving mood. Imagine if, they had really tried to win, how bad they could have made Quality Road look? The Ragozin people are going to be all over Quality Road for bouncing in the Florida Derby and being perfectly set up to exceed his Fountain of Youth performance. Yikes!!!

slew'em all, can't you say something really, really good about another horse but, you need to really sound convincing, like you really, really know what you are talking about, so Quality Road's odds can go up. Remember, you need to sound convincing. That is the key. Don't say anything stupid, because people won't believe you. Thanks, for your help, pal.

P.S. - For your help, I'll tell you after the Derby what happened to Quality Road during the Fountain of Youth race.

re: Florida Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Householder — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 02:44:47 GMT

I like the Santa Anita to Wood angle. It has worked in the past. All systems go for IWR. This horse has run monster west coast races and NEVER bounced. The Pamplemousse drew the 10 slot. His ride may be over. Like Chocolate Candy down on the rail. He will be chasing down POTN late. Chocolate Candy to win the Santa Anita Derby.

re: Florida Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Draynay — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 02:38:37 GMT

BUNNY ALERT>>>> BUNNY ALERT.... Z Day is running in the Santa Anita to run the Pamplemousse into the ground and Z Day is fast.... very very fast ask Imperial Council how fast.... Since the bunny is in the race I will pick Mr. Hot Stuff for the upset with Pioneer of the Nile finishing the exacta.

re: Florida Derby Thoughts - One Day After

GunBow — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 02:32:34 GMT

Mike Relva,

I have been a fan of the sport since 1989, and I rank Cigar as the best horse of the period. On one given day, sure, a number of horses could have beaten him. However, Cigar ran EVERYWHERE, carried weight, won on fast and slow tracks, won on the pace or off it, overcame track biases, and beat the very best horses over a two year span. Cigar brought it every time. He ran quick times and his Beyers were consistently between 114 and 121. Over a 20 race span, Cigar NEVER ran a Beyer under 104, and ran a Beyer over 111 in 18 of those 20 races! In his final 17 starts, Cigar NEVER ran a Beyer under 111. Last year, Curlin's BEST Beyer was 112.

Over the last 20 years, the only horses to show such talent/speed over a comparable period was Skip Away and Easy Goer. Horses like Ghostzapper, Gentlemen, and Formal Gold ran some very fast races, but they didn't do it over a long span of races. There have been alot of wonderful horses over the last two decades, I just think Cigar is at the top.

re: Florida Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Draynay — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 01:13:59 GMT

How can ANYONE take FF seriously when he has never gone past 1 1/16th ??? Betting on that horse will be a complete waste of money. The winner of the Wood will be Imperial Council and the winner of the Derby will be Quality Road. Are there other good horses in the race ...yes... are there any as good as Quality Road....no. I still have not forgiven Larry Jones for running Hard Spun at distances beyond his ability. Curlin couldn't beat Hard Spun at a mile if his life depended on it but I digress. Training a horse 7 weeks out is just plain silly and gives the horse no real shot of winning. Like it or not Quality Road is it folks...

re: Florida Derby Thoughts - One Day After

TerriV — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 01:13:24 GMT

Oh, something I forgot - a huge congratulations to Well Armed and Aaron Gryder. It was really great watching him on Jockeys. He and Well Armed are a wonderful team. Well done!

re: Florida Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Slew.em.All — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 00:43:44 GMT

Relva: What the hell is IP?.(Imperial Perial?)..I believe it's IC for (Imperial Council).ABC-123 you dork. lol

IWR is just too damn explosive for his Wood' rivals.IC will get his @$$ kicked again.Easy pickings..Plus, The Buddha Master is never wrong. :)

re: Florida Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Matthew W — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 00:39:56 GMT

Draynay ALLRIGHT ALLREADY---They pretty grey filly will win the Der---I mean Imperial Council is a shoe in to win the Der---No, I mean Quality Road will win the Derby/Horse of Year/is better than Secretariat---allright!

re: Florida Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Jason Shandler — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 23:45:27 GMT

Thanks Monica. I appreciate you and everyone else weighing in. Most people, with the exception of Draynay, know what they're talking about on here. lol.

I'll have a weekend preview on Thursday.

re: Florida Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Householder — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 23:44:09 GMT

In 1989 Lukas blamed the 2.9 million dollar wonder horse Houston's loss in the Santa Anita Derby on dehydration. (Keep in mind that 2.9 in 1989 is like 6 million current). He drank some water and lost again 4 weeks later to the same horse...Sunday Silence.

re: Florida Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Monica V — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 23:20:00 GMT

My, my. Once again, Jason, you have a great blog going.

I have been watching the derby preps and trying to decide on a horse. I was very impressed with Quality Road. He is magnificent! He's a huge, muscular individual and so very impressive in his win.

I love his breeding too. I also like Frisan Fire and Chocolate Candy and I don't think Dunkirk is one to throw out. There are several horses who could take the derby. In the last 20 years or so, it's been like a crap shoot anyway. Wasn't Point Given a shoo-in for the Derby? Or even the TC?

He didn't even come close in the Derby. Who bet on Li'l ET? Did anyone have Grindstone? I sure didn't think Thundergulch would do it and didn't have a cent on Monarchos. Now Big Brown was supposed to win and he did. Really no surpries there. He was supposed to win the TC and didn't.

No surprise there because modern horses just can't do it it would seem.

I read all the posts here and so many have Quality Road as the winner, no doubt! The Derby is just a whole different race. There is no harder race to win than the Derby but sometimes a horse will win it and doesn't seem to win anything else.

Everyone here has their opinion but the last two horses I was sure of for the Derby were Sunday Silence and Smarty Jones. I had not one doubt and I was right. This year....who knows? I just don't think there is a clear cut winner. I think there's going to b a big surprise winner this year. Could be or it could be Quality Road or IWF. Wonder what the weather will be like, yet another factor. I do know that horses who are calm and don't get bothered much are more likely to win but even that isn't always true.

Jason, I really think you have the best handle on it of all. I truly think you are a marvelous handicapper and I know there are others on this blog as well. I'm not a great handicapper but I love the sport and the animals and that's enough for me. I hope you have a blog the day after the Derby!

re: Florida Derby Thoughts - One Day After

TerriV — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 22:55:11 GMT

Don't even get me started on Kent D. I'll never forgive him for pulling up Big Brown and tarnishing his run for the Triple Crown. And it seems he often has problems with horses, if I had a racehorse Kent wouldn't come within a hundred yards of him. The attempt at a DQ was petty. But on another note - this is really an exciting field of Derby horses shaping up. Quality Road is impressive (noticed the chest!)But Dunkirk also has serious talent; even though he did look exhausted after the FL Derby. I am sentimentally attached to Larry Jones' horses and love to watch The Pamplemouse. Win Willy ran an exciting race; I love to see them come from behind like that and he has a really nice pedigree. There is something to be said for most all these contenders. And, just for the record, every horse that runs in the Derby has a chance to win. Remember Giacamo...

re: Florida Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Mike Relva — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 22:50:00 GMT

TO:SLEW.em.ALL

Let's see how you will react this time when IP,(not IC) wins the Wood! I just wanna hear you once admit you're wrong about something,lol.

re: Florida Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Barbara — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 21:24:17 GMT

Well Pioneerof the Nile took note of the error of Todd's way and is bringing a bunny to his party. (I knew Zayat could dig one up...;)

re: Florida Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Slew.em.All — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 20:36:47 GMT

I had a feeling no one of significance was showing-up to challenge The Cali Reaper,that is I Want Revenge.Everyone else is running for 2nd money & Gr.I placing.

I've always respected Shug,but his assertion that "IWR was alone in the front,so his heart got real big",is misguided and incorrect.We all know The 'Reaper pressured Mr.F' in the early going,cruised-up along side of him on the far turn then turned on the after-burners while winning handily.

So,Mullins says IWR is better now than what he was going into the Gotham..Hello!Lights Out!...I Want Revenge in a Romp!..He's taking more Sad Souls with him like he did with Mr.F',Haynesfield & the rest of the Gotham also rans.IC has no shot in the Wood Memorial.They only way IWR gets beat is if all that coast-to-coast criss-crossing takes it's toll on him...No Worries!

re: Florida Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Ranagulzion — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 18:53:41 GMT

DRAYNAY: Let me come to Friesan Fire's defence. First, the horse is a stalker and with this kind of runner they often have much more in the tank than meets the eye because they simply track the fractions of the front runner(s). The way that this horse changes gear when roused suggests that he is running on a "turbo engine" so no one, including the trainer knows how good he really is. It is very likely that he can produce the same turn of foot if stalking a 1:10 six furlongs split front runner. We just don't know yet and I wouldn't be foolish enough to insist that he can't when in fact he has given no such indication. secondly, he is bred to stay forever therefore going a distance of ground beyond 1 1/16 mile is a non-issue. Larry Jones who certainly knows about getting his 3YOs to be "cherry ripe" on Derby Day has said that Friesan Fire is getting better and wants to be #1 in his barn (he probably is by now), therefore I would advise you to think again before "throwing out" this dude.

Our handicapping sensation/flash-in-the-pan SLEW.em.ALL has told us that this Friesan Fire dude can boogie, and you know what, I believe him. Mark you, he'll have to do more than "boogie" to win the Kentucky Derby but he's live and could redeem his sire AP Indy.

SLEW: Quality Road threatens to unmask you as a flash-in-the-pan handicapper but you have 5 weeks to escape your predicament and I doubt that I Want Revenge will help you.