Wood, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby Analysis

re: Wood, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby Analysis

AllanG — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 17:46:28 GMT

The quality of the Derby is set for the road on Derby day.Some good old chocolate and candy is good off the road.

re: Wood, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby Analysis

Slew.em.All — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 20:04:28 GMT

Relva: man-up again! you and Draynay must be suffocating with all that Ostrich "Egg in your face"..lol I told you IWR is the Real Deal

re: Wood, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby Analysis

Mike Relva — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 18:54:34 GMT

TO: AUGUST

That's exactly the primary reason why Mullins isn't on "my hit parade". I've never cared for his methods and while he has a great horse,I don't like him,period!

re: Wood, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby Analysis

August Song — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 06:37:06 GMT

Are you kidding me? You can't make this stuff up. "I am shocked, shocked, that anyone like Mr. Mullins would try to give drugs to his horses in a detention barn."

"Our stewards are investigating an incident inside NYRA's derention barn on Saturday afternoon... NYRA security personnel advised the stewards that Mr. Mullins was observed attemting to administer an over-the-counter product called Air Power to [Gato Go Win] in the security barn. He had also apparently taken a syringe into the security barn."

Gato Go Win was scratched as a result. Why wasn't I Want Revenge scratched, too? They were in the exact, same detention barn. Who is not to say, that Mullins hadn't already administered some "Air Power" to I Want Revenge, before trying to give some to Gato Go Win? What if there was something additional in the Air Power? Did I Want Revenge get some of that "Air Power" for his Gotham? It makes one wonder why Mullins insisted on taking I Want Revenge back to California after his Gotham. Has Mr. Mullins a new drug that they haven't typed yet? How good is Michael Iavarone at picking Kentucky Derby horse trainers that use drugs on their horses? Does Mullins get suspended through the Derby? Can you trust any of I Want Revenge's performances now, and believe that they were legitimate? So, if Mullins gets canned or suspended, isn't in so reassuring that Dutrow is waiting in the wings to take over the training of I Want Revenge? And everybody knows that Dutrow would never stoop so low as to give his horses any drugs, right? You saw what happened to Big Brown in the Belmont, when he came off steroids. I can hardly wait to see how I Want Revenge runs the next time he races.

re: Wood, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby Analysis

Householder — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 01:33:00 GMT

Jason. I thought Chocolate Candy's race was pretty good given his lay off. I think his performance against POTN and IWR proves he belongs. Despite the crowd he was pretty relaxed in the paddock. The additional 1/8, and a little more speed, will only help him.

re: Wood, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby Analysis

GunBow — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 23:27:10 GMT

Curlin,

Good point about Talamo not going to the whip in the stretch of the Wood. IWR had all that trouble, yet still won easily, under a hand ride. Also, keep in mind the final eighth of the Wood was run in a strong 12 and 1. To close that quickly w/ such a trip, well...just awesome.

In my earlier post I may have overestimated how much ground IWR lost. But I would think 7 lengths and 13 Beyer points is a good starting point.

IWR's trip in the Wood reminds me somewhat of Touch Gold in the 97' Preakness. In the Preakness, Touch Gold stumbled at the start, spotting the field around 5 lengths. Touch Gold was full of run, though, and pulled McCarron up behind horses on the backstretch. However, Touch Gold dragged Mccarron right up on the heels of horses, forcing McCarron to check. The same thing happened at the top of the stretch when Touch Gold tried to sneak up inside of Free House on the rail. After all this, Touch Gold didn't stop running, and though only 4th, was beaten less than 2 lengths with a 116 Beyer. Touch Gold would come back in the Belmont, spoiling Silver Charm's Triple Crown bid with a half-length win. Touch Gold also won the Haskell very impressively before his tender feet got the best of him.

re: Wood, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby Analysis

Matthew W — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 22:20:14 GMT

Jason I agree Chocolate Candy looked impressive--What about Mr Hot Stuff, who waited/came up rail---2nd time in a row they came up fence...Really would like to see him slingshot wide and finish as he's bred to get that extra 1/8 by Tiznow/Turkoman(Alydar)...does he even have enough ducketts to play on first Sat??...Would love to see Corey get the roses/Mr Hot Stuff is flying way under the radar/may love dirt as his bro Col John won Travers....1 1/4 miles is a true test/with many questions....Mr Hot Stuff ansewrs one: He'll get the last 1/8....

re: Wood, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby Analysis

August Song — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 21:24:59 GMT

I was thoroughly unimpressed with I Want Revenge' s Wood race. It was an allowance race for nwx3, hyped as a meaningful Grade 1. Rest assured it was. I Want Revenge strolled out of the gate, lacklusterly, while the pace was moderately fast for the inconsequential types of horses he was meeting. Notice the half being run in 48, while the Excelsior run just before, they did 50. What better pace scenario for I Want Revenge to close into. Visually, the racing novices were impressed. Come May 2nd, I Want Revenge will not hit the board. Watch both races! In the 50 half race, nothing closed on the 2 frontrunners. In the 48, only the horse who was nowhere near the front, closed. I Want Revenge will cry, "What Happened? I Want My Money Back," as they start tearing up their tickets.

re: Wood, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby Analysis

Curlin — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 19:57:35 GMT

Jason, I missed the live blog. I was already sitting at the Spectrum in the Whirlaway room stuffing my face with the buffet. Anyway, I just had a chance to read back through and I have to ask, do you still think IWR is no Quality Road? That was as impressive of an effort as you're going to see and I like the fact that Talamo never went to the whip down the stretch. He still had plenty of horse & saved a lot for the Derby.

As for the SA Derby, I'm with you on Chocolate Candy. I believe he'll be the highest Derby finisher from the West Coast (excluding IWR of course). Now where exactly that places him in that field is anyone's guess.

Finally, I have to give a little love to Musket Man. I still don't think he has a shot in the Derby, but then again, for the most part a lot of people didn't think he would have a shot in his last 2. Looking forward to next week's blog.

re: Wood, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby Analysis

Jason Shandler — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 18:54:02 GMT

Householder: I really liked Chocolate candy's race. He was about six wide, lost a ton of ground and still lost by just a length. He will be a live longshot on Derby day. You?

I'll have a full recap of the weekend later.

re: Wood, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby Analysis

Householder — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 18:47:11 GMT

JASON. What did you think of Chocolate Candy's performance?

re: Wood, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby Analysis

GunBow — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 08:58:44 GMT

First, sorry to hear about The Pamplemousse. I've said it before, and I'll say it again, between now and May 2nd at least a couple of solid Derby contenders will be withdrawn due to injury or sickness. I hope Mousse can return quickly, and I know I am not alone in my disappointment in not getting to see him challenge Pioneer. As for the horses that actually ran:

Chalk city. The favorites win the 3 preps. But, wow, one performance REALLY stands out.

I Want Revenge is a MONSTER FREAK. I have never seen a horse (in my 20 years following the sport) win a grade 1 race like that. The other horses in the Wood were completely embarassed. Horses just aren't supposed to have that much trouble and win grade 1 races. Truly amazing. I would guess I Want Revenge was 10-15 lengths best in the race. I do recognize, however, that with Imperial Council bombing, I Want Revenge did not beat a great field. This should be reflected in what is likely to be a low/ordinary Beyer. However, the Beyer fig will not capture how many lengths IWR lost in the race. Whatever the figure, I would advise adding 15-25 points to it, and I am absolutely serious.

So, barring in any injuries or illness, it looks like we have 2 legit monsters for the Derby. Quality Road has put together back-to-back Derby preps rivalled only by Holy Bull and Silver Charm in recent history. His race times and speed figures make him one of the top Derby prospects in recent memory, and I think he is every bit as good as Big Brown and Barbaro were at the same stage of their careers. However, and this is a scary thought, I Want Revenge may be even better. IRW has already run a monster Beyer, and in the Wood displayed the heart, intelligence and raw ability to overcome substantial trouble/obstacles. This is a horse that has won on synthetics, dirt, and now mud, on the pace and from far back, on the East Coast and West Coast, and after much travel. For those that questioned IWR after the Gotham, claiming he had an easy trip and had everything his own way, the Wood is a testament to IWR's talent. IWR had almost nothing go right, yet he still won.

The other horses that ran in the Wood just do not appear to be in I Want Revenge's league. I was encouraged that West Side Bernie, a horse I had seen in person two weeks back in the Lane's End, run well for 2nd. Clearly, Bernie prefers dirt over Poly, and he proved himself again to be a solid graded stakes competitor on that surface. Unfortunately,he wasn't able to finish ahead of a horse that had an absolutely nightmare of a trip. Weird things can happen in the Derby, but for Bernie to win the Derby, horses like IWR and Quality Road would have to run well below their capabilities.

Imperial Council was a big disappointment in the Wood. After the Gotham, many argued that Imperial Council lost any chance to beat IWR when he was taken so far back by Maragh. Well, Prado had him alot closer to the pace in the Wood, but by having to use that extra effort and speed early, Imperial Council had nothing left for the drive. So, let's summarize what we know about Imperial Council. He does have a decent closing kick, but for it do be effective he needs to be taken so far back in the early going that he ends up at a huge tactical disadvantage. However, if he is ridden to show more speed and stay closer to the pace, that late run flattens out significantly. It just doesn't seem like he's fast enough for horses like Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

As for the Santa Anita Derby, all Piooner of the Nile does is win. That's 4 straight graded stakes wins, two of those being grade 1s. With the unfortunate scratch of Mousse', Pioneer was confronted, once again, with a pace-less race. Just like in the San Felipe, though, Pioneer demonstrated the ability to change tactics right on cue, and win while being outside of his comfort zone. Pioneer is such a classy colt, possesses a strong closing kick yet also has solid tactical speed. He's bred to get a distance, is trained by a 3-time Derby winner, and has already won more than one million dollars. Piooner is well proportioned, athletic and attentive, although he is not a particularly sturdy or rugged colt.

There are only 2 major questions left concerning Pioneer of the Nile. Is he as good on dirt as he is on synthetics? And even if he is, is he fast enough to beat IWR or Quality Road? In my opinion, if he answers the first question in the affirmative, then the answer to the second is "possibly".

I view synthetic Beyers like I do turf Beyers, and turf Beyers are not directly comparable to dirt Beyers. In general, turf Beyers run 5-10 points lower than dirt Beyers for any given graded stakes level. Thus, grade 1 turf horses typically earn Beyers in the 103-110 range, while grade 1 dirt horses earn Beyers in the 108-116 range. Pioneer's Beyers are well below those of other top Derby contenders, and I expect the Beyer for the Santa Anita Derby to be in the 94-100 range. Although not accepted practice, I add 4-9 points to synthetic Beyers when comparing synth and dirt Beyers(particularly in graded stakes races), and doing so would put Pioneer in the 99-104 range. Those types of Beyers would give him a shot vs. IWR and QR, but he would probably have to improve AND those two bounce if he was going to beat them. Still, only very good horses are able to win 4 consecutive grade 1 or 2 races. In fact, Pioneer has had one of the most impressive Derby prep campaigns in recent Santa Anita history. The fact Pioneer is not a clear Derby favorite testifies to the quality of this year's crop.

Chocolate Candy proved, without a doubt, he belongs with the best horses of his generation. Although at a definite pace disadvantage, Chocolate Candy did very well to make a strong move around the turn and into the stretch, made all the more impressive by the fact he was carried five wide. Chocolate Candy is a big but well balanced colt who takes very much after his father, Candy Ride. In his last 5 starts, Chocolate Candy has now won three stakes, one of them graded, while running 2nd and 3rd in two grade 1s. Chocolate Candy has a nice, long stride, distance breeding, and very good trainer in Jerry Hollendorfer. The pace for the Derby should flatter his running style, and he is bred to do well on the dirt. I am less concerned about CC on the dirt than I am Pioneer.

Mr. Hot Stuff ran another improved race in the Santa Anita Derby. This full brother to Colonel John obviously has some talent, but he still appears to be a race or two behind the other leading contenders in Cali.

Geronimo + predict:

Good calls on Musket Man. Geronimo, I know you were really impressed with Musket Man after the Tampa Bay Derby and thought, unlike some, that 9 furlongs would not be an issue. And it certainly wasn't. In my post before the race, I actually wrote that my top two choices were Perfect Song and Musket Man, so I was coming around to the horse. Even so, I was quite impressed with Musket Man's performance in the Illinois Derby. I'm not surprised he won, but the style and margin of victory was a little unexpected. This wasn't a particularly strong field, but Musket Man was very sharp, and I expect a solid Beyer (97-105 wild guess); a sub- 1:50 9 furlongs at Hawthorne this time of year is impressive. I won't be placing Musket Man near the top of my list, but he's definitely on it, and moving up. Giant Oak, the runner up, finally showed something, but it still wasnt the type of performance that his supporters had been promising. I think his trainer, Chris Block, would probably be prudent to keep to his plans and keep Giant Oak out of the Derby. There is alot of money to win elsewhere, although one could hardly blame him if he were to go to Churchill. The others in the Illinois Derby were well beatem by these top two, and horses than run such poor final preps simply do not win the Derby (28 of the last 34 Derby winners ran 1st or 2nd in their final prep race).

science,

Conhrats on that Aqueduct Pick 3 w/ IWR + Kodiak Kowboy.

re: Wood, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby Analysis

Pat O'Donnell — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 02:47:50 GMT

Why is no one mentionong West Side Bernie? I am commited to this horse at better than 40 to 1 in the first derby pool. He is not even offered in the third pool, and after today's Wood, there is still no respect. All his races have been around two turns,and he is a closer. The extra eighth will bode him well, in my humble opinion.The owners have already said he will be at the Derby.

re: Wood, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby Analysis

Matthew W — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 00:18:37 GMT

I Want Revenge is now the most accomplished horse going into The Derby---more than Pioneer cuz he just got one heckuva serving of bad luck/kickback and won like a champ! Going straight to Kentucky? Hmmmm...the way they've been doing flying in from Hollywood Park....But I Want Revenge is certainly the "one to beat" and likely favorite...Pioneerof The Nile is a street fighter as well! He loafs but he makes lead/goes by with authority--I think he'll fetch a nice price in Derby as his #'s are below par--SO WERE I Want Revenge's #'s when HE raced in Cali...Freisan Fire, Quality Road, Dunkirk are all nice horses....The West is bringin' the street fighters to the party this year and may the best horse win!

re: Wood, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby Analysis

Slew.em.All — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 23:23:27 GMT

I keep telling ya'll....Cali horses are the real deal this year.The Derby winner is coming from 'The WestCoast! Let the reign begin. BBL

re: Wood, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby Analysis

Leahhorseracer — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 18:58:47 GMT

I Think Choclate Candy

Has the Stuff To Get In The Derby

Also I Want Revange Will Do Very Well, If Pioneerof the Nile

Wins I'll Change my Mind About Him

re: Wood, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby Analysis

Jason Shandler — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 17:25:34 GMT

The Pamplemousse has been scratched

re: Wood, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby Analysis

Barbara — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 17:19:23 GMT

Grapefruit done. Out.

re: Wood, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby Analysis

helsbelles — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 17:08:17 GMT

The Pamplemousse was just scratched from SA derby by state vets.

re: Wood, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby Analysis

Oscar — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 15:20:30 GMT

OSCAR’S 2009 ILLINOIS DERBY GREEN OSCAR'ILLINOIS DERBY GREEN SHEET

“AMERICAN BRIDLE”

Did you ever watch American Idol? How about the Illinois Derby? You know the Illinois Derby is really a lot like American Idol. (Well ok, it’s slightly less popular, their contestants are a little heavier than most of the American Idol performers and all of them have tattoos!) What they have in common, however, is that each is a contest between individuals with varying degrees of talent who are seeking fame and fortune. Most of the winners (and occasionally some of the losers) get their fifteen minutes of fame (in the case of the Illinois Derby it’s more like a minute and fifty seconds), and then retreat back into obscurity.

However, every so often, they produce a real genuine super star. Examples are Carrie Underwood, winner of the 2005 American Idol contest, and War Emblem, the 2002 Illinois Derby winner (who went on to victories in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness before hitting a sour note in the Belmont).

Other than those exceptional individuals, what you generally see are a few contestants who are useful, but are not close to being a mega star. Some names that you may remember are Lost Code, Clay Aiken, Pollard’s Vision, Bucky Covington, Sweetnorthernsaint, Kelly Clarkson, Ten Most Wanted, Kellie Pickler, and Vision and Verse.

This year someone will win on American Idol and someone will win the Illinois Derby. You’re on your own trying to pick the winner on American Idol, but I think I can help you with some live choices in the Illinois Derby:

Welcome to this year’s edition of American Bridle!

PERFECT SONG – Oscar’s Bud Longshot

Perfect Song is undefeated in his two starts on dirt and would be “perfect” if it were not for his rough trip head loss on the Turfway Park synthetic surface. Michael Trombetta said that the horse was not comfortable on that surface, which makes his head loss that much more impressive. (Remember Street Sense?)

That loud sigh of relief you heard a few days ago coming out of Illinois was trainer Trombetta after he found out Pletcher was scratching Lord Justice to run him in the Wood. That “harecut” should leave Perfect Song as the lone speed, and that gives him a big advantage over his main rivals Musket Man and Giant Oak. Actually maybe it’s more like it levels the playing field because Perfect Song is at a big disadvantage on class vs. those two. Trombetta saddled Sweetnorthernsaint to win in 2006, so he knows how to prepare a

horse to win this race. In fact Sweetnorthernsaint was so impressive in winning the Illinois Derby that he went off a slight favorite (over Barbaro) in the Kentucky Derby where he finished a troubled seventh. He rebounded to finish 2nd in the Preakness.

No problem in the breeding department for this guy as he is by BC Classic and Dubai World Cup winner Pleasantly Perfect. His dam, Prospector’s Song, is by the speedy Prospector’s Music. That must be what enabled him to run 6f in 1:09, including a final furlong in less than 12 seconds in his debut in January. However, Stage Door Johnny and Tom Fool appear a little further back in his pedigree and may only be waiting to be called upon when asked. Although it will be his first trip around two turns, he should get the 1 1/8 miles with no problem.

The concern of course is the rise in class, but he has the running style you prefer when class is a question – he will go to front and make them catch him. He may be overlooked in the betting and stands a big chance for an upset if he can handle the class jump. What did you say? Yes I know he raced at Philadelphia Park and that is hardly Saratoga or Del Mar. Folks, I hate to be a Smarty Jones about this, but didn’t the 2004 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner race at Philadelphia Park?

MUSKET MAN

He is the only graded stakes winner in the field, and following his impressive win in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby, Musket Man will be a deserving favorite for this race. Even though he won that 1 1/16 mile race, this son of Yonaguska out of a Fortunate Prospect mare has the breeding, look and feel of a horse who may be vulnerable at a mile and an eighth. I’m not saying that he will be off the board, (he is 5 for 5 in that category with 4 wins), however, he will be an Underwood (excuse me, I mean underlay) for the win. Ryan who is a fairly low percentage trainer has him working well for this race, but then again this horse always works fast. As a stalker / closer facing a probable loose on the lead Perfect Song, he will most likely be closer to the pace than he prefers, and as a result his late kick could be compromised.

GIANT OAK

Giant Oak returns to his native state and is hoping that he can reverse what appears to be a downward spiral. After a promising beginning to his career at Arlington Park where he won his first two starts, he has struggled when facing stakes company, with one exception. That was a neck loss to Beethoven in the Kentucky Jockey Club last November. However, that is beginning to look like a negative key race, as both Beethoven and Capt. Candyman Can have been disappointments in 2009.

He lost twice to Friesan Fire in Louisiana where he closed some ground, but was never a threat when finishing 5th in the Risen Star (where he was favored) and 4th in the Louisiana Derby. While he could pass some tired and outclassed horses, I think the only way this Illinois bred could win would be to bribe Rob Blagoejvich to declare him the winner! If he loses here he could always run for Barack Obama’s Senate seat, but I don’t think he’d win that either – as an Oak he would be too inflexible to get the liberal votes. Of course he could always run as a Republican…

AL KHALI

Todd Pletcher sends out two horses, both of which look like live longshots. Al Khali, by Medaglia d’Oro – Maya, by Capote looks like the better of the two. Bought for $15,000 he has already earned back his purchase price plus $10,000 more in his four lifetime starts, three of which were in Peru. In his first and only U.S. start, he defeated Stately Character and Atomic Rain in an allowance at Gulfstream. That race was at today’s distance. The time was not fast, but as they say, “time only counts when you’re in prison or with a hooker”, and the bunch he faces today are not the fastest 3 year-olds in training today. This is an interesting horse, who appears to be improving, and obviously there is no question about his ability to get this distance.

IL POSTINO

Pletcher’s other horse is Il Postino is a $300k purchase who just won a $20k maiden claimer after running abysmally in two maiden special weights. Sounds like he was probably sold by Bernie Madoff doesn’t it? But wait, he is by Distorted Humor and out of a Black Tie Affair mare, and he did win that maiden race by almost 12 lengths, defeating eleven other horses. His time of 1:37.3 for the mile is about as good as most of the others he will face and with his pedigree he should be even better at a mile and an eighth.

Was it the drop in class that did it last time, or was it the blinkers? Most likely it was both. It could also be that he is beginning to mature. His pedigree does not scream precociousness. He’d have no chance in the Wood or Santa Anita Derby, but he could make a little “Illinoise” here.

Hey, don’t laugh. Tell me that you heard of Carrie Underwood before American Idol! Here’s the Funny Cide of this; Carrie’s sire never produced a big winner before her! Now take a look at Distorted Humor’s progeny and tell me this guy has no chance!

There are two others worth mentioning, and I only mention them because this field is so weak. Nick Zito’s Nowhere to Hide has a pair of 4th’s in his most recent races. The first was to Friesan Fire in the Risen Star and the second was to Musket Man in the Tampa Bay Derby, where he trailed the field early before making up some ground. He has also finished second to Take the Points in a MSW, so he has faced some descent horses. He always seems to go wide and that will not be an advantage on Saturday.

The other horse is Ken McPeek’s Free Country, a horse who began his career impressively with victories in his first two starts, a MSW and an allowance. The allowance was at a mile and an eighth and he defeated Stately Character and Atomic Rain, both of whom have gone on to stakes competition, albeit without a great

deal of success. He looked more like a struggling Third World Country when he moved up into stakes competition, where he finished 4th to General Quarters in the Sam Davis, and 9th and last behind Friesan Fire in the Louisiana Derby. The switch from Desormeaux to Razo is hardly an encouraging move, and I am not happy with the removal of the blinkers that he wore for the first time in the Louisiana Derby. Although he finished last, I think it was due to the track and the competition. He needs to be closer to the pace to have a chance here. I would have left the hood on for one more try.

SUMMARY

You’re probably wondering why I chose this race for my Green Sheet rather than one of the other big races, the Santa Anita Derby and the Wood Memorial. The reason is that I think this is a race where you can make some real money. The other races should have the top 3 finishing in the money with another $12 trifecta like you saw last week in the Florida Derby.

This race has a recent history of at least one longshot hitting the exacta:

· In 2006, Sweetnorthernsaint won at 6-5 after stalking the pace set by Mister Triester, who finished second at 27-1.

· In 2007, Cowtown Cat (7-2) wired the field but 24-1 Reporting for Duty rallied for second.

· Last year, 15-1 Recapture the Glory won on the lead, with 5-1 Golden Spikes second.

Sometimes American Idol contestants forget the lyrics to their song (David Archuleta) and sometimes American Bridle horses stumble out of the starting gate (War Emblem in the 2002 Belmont), but usually that doesn’t happen. Usually the expected happens, not the unanticipated. So unless Perfect Song forgets his lyrics and stumbles out of the gate, he should quickly get the lead heading into the first turn. Al Khali has shown some speed and will probably be his closest challenger. Maybe Nowhere to Hide will be sent from the rail, along with Knight Shot from the far out side, but Perfect Song is just faster than all of these.

The real key to the race will be what Coa decides to do with Musket Man who has tactile speed if he elects to use it, but his judgment is crucial because if he is too close too early to Perfect Song he won’t have much left in the final sixteenth, and if he is too far back he will not be able to run him down. How much Perfect Song has left will depend upon how fast he goes and perhaps more importantly, on how much pressure he will be under from the start and how long it continues.

HOW TO BET

You have to use MUSKET MAN in your trifetas; he is tested for class and is consistently in the money. I have to take a gamble that PERFECT SONG is for real on the class question and I will use him also.

I would key them with AL KHALI and IL POSTINO. Then it is a choice between NOWHERE TO HIDE, GRAND OAK, and FREE COUNTRY. I really don’t like any of them, but Nowhere to Hide has the best pedigree, is trained by Nick Zito and has been training well. I’m not sure why Zito is using Pascacio Lopez. He will be the seventh different rider this horse has had. Only Alan Garcia has ridden him more than once (4th both times). His only win came with Jeremy Rose aboard and he will be on Perfect Song.

Speaking of Perfect Song he is so sure that he is going to win that he has arranged to have a special song performed in the Winner’s Circle following this race.

It will be his tribute to both American Idol and American Bridle and it’s called:

JESUS TAKE THE REINS!

Written and performed by

Songandaprayer

1998, b, 16.3 hands

Unbridled's Song-Alizea, by Premiership

re: Wood, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby Analysis

nickie — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 13:35:00 GMT

giddyup...gotta ask why if poly to dirt ng, why you say ok for Mullins[like he is a swami] to turn that trick...I "wood" say to you 7/2,4/1.I'm interested...4/5...not so much....I will say with the possibility of precip in the NY Metro area, this could change the tactics of some..I do know that if JR's agent was riding his colt, Just a Coincidence, Mr. Talamo would get a few lessons on race riding.

re: Wood, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby Analysis

Science — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 12:13:12 GMT

I'm taking the train and 2 subways to get to the Big A.Betting $3 pick 3 IWR,Imperial Council /Kodiak Kowboy/All

Best Bet Illinois Derby- Nowhere To Hide $30WP

Go Baby Go

re: Wood, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby Analysis

Aluminaut — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 04:54:32 GMT

Well, Colonel John owes me money,

so maybe Mr. Hot Stuff can pay. Last time that happened was Opening Verse in the '91 Breeder's Cup, so I'm not holding my breath.

Whatever happens, I have to go to work tomorrow, so the rest of you enjoy. Loved the "cardboard box"

comment. Say hi to Pamp tomorrow.

A little trivia for you...As you know, Pamplemousse means grapefruit in French. In Tahiti (French Polynesia), the grapefruit which they call Pamplemousse is huge, sweet and green, even when it's ripe. Keep shakin' y'all.

re: Wood, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby Analysis

GunBow — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 02:56:17 GMT

Will not be betting any of the races on Saturday, as I will be at the Final 4 here in the D.

For the Wood, give me chalk. I Want Revenge is too good right now. The extra speed shouldn't be a big problem, given he came from well off the pace to just miss in the grade 1 Hollywood (Cash Call) Futurity. He has class, speed, and can win even with a bounce. Imperial Council for 2nd. I like his upward progression, and he should continue to improve here. Would be surprised if someone else sneaks into the exacta. After that, none of the others appear to be Kentucky Derby material, unless West Side Bernie can come back in 2 weeks and run a much improved race. I would be inclined to take an improving horse like Lord Justice or Just a Coincidence for 3rd.

Santa Anita Derby:

Have thought The Pamplemousse would hold too many advantages, and the presence of Z Day doesnt change my opinion. The Mousse showed he can rate when breaking his maiden with a good figure at Hollywood Park. The key point is, he is going to be well ahead of his principle rivals turning for home, and we know he can get 9 furlongs. At Churchill going 10 furlongs, I like others in here more, but Saturday should be The Mousse's day. Pioneer of the Nile is going to be very tough; he is very talented an exudes class. I just see his late run coming up short. However, if Gogo hustles him out of the gate, like in the San Felipe, I think he does have the ability to stay within striking distance of The Mousse and then wear him down late. However, I see Gomez riding Pioneer with an eye on Kentucky, and will let him settle early. I look at synthetic Beyers like turf Beyers, in which the most important things are the closing fractions and the class of the race. Chocolate Candy holds a significant class edge over the other runners that I have yet to mention, and would be disappointed if he is not running well late for 3rd. Take the Points is better on dirt, Mr Hot Stuff has to improve, and the others are outclassed. Chalk City.

Illinois Derby: None of the horses in the field are, as of yet, serious Kentucky Derby contenders. The favorites in the Illinois Derby, Musket Man and Giant Oak, are very flawed horses. I wouldn't be surprised if any of the following 6 horses won the race: Perfect Song, Nowhere to Hide, Musket Man, Giant Oak, Al Khali, and Free Country. I suppose I like Perfect Song and Musket Man the most, but wouldn't take lower than 5-1 on any of them. Couldn't blame anyone for shooting at the stars in this race.

re: Wood, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby Analysis

Nick — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 02:32:25 GMT

Quality Road is no doubt an awesome horse. I'm not ready to crown him the derby champ at this point. There's a lot of racing left in the next 15 days, that'll help. Horses that win the derby usually peak to do so. Has he peaked or does he have something left?

I use Beyers more for comparison and trends. I love the one where a horse in a claiming race runs the exact same time as a horse in an allowance race, but the horse in the allowance race gets a higher number. That's subjectivity and presents problems at times.

By the way, I think Take the Points will scratch. His goal is to make sure no horse sneaks into the top 20 and with the three top contenders in the race that's a near certainty. Pletcher has 3 in the Illinois just for that reason. He's trying to keep a couple of horse from slipping into the top 20 for Dunkirk's sake.

Pamplemousse uber alles