Weekend Recap a New Top 10, OK...Top 12

re: Weekend Recap a New Top 10, OK...Top 12

Householder — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 18:28:20 GMT

Like your #1 choice Jason after Papa Clem takes the Arkansas. POTN. How good is he? He seems to have beaten all the west and now those that have chosen to run from him as well (Chocolate Candy 2x, IWR 2x, Papa Clem 1x). What angle are handicappers left with? That he is too slow (using depressed Beyers) or that he does not like dirt? I guess a case can be made for FF or QR. A repeat on Derby Day makes him dangerous. I think my super fecta is now complete. POTN, Chocolate Candy, IWR, and Papa Clem.

re: Weekend Recap a New Top 10, OK...Top 12

VANDAL PA — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 05:06:57 GMT

'TIS Great To See THE Entheuseasium in our MARCH TO THE KY DERBY and all that it means to US--as HANDICAPPERS/DREAMERS/HORSELOVERS/EXTRAVERTS OF THE MILE!!<< and all around GOOD GUYS.The OWNERS 'think' they have a shot at the GLORY/TOP 5 MONEY CASHER AS THEY ENTER THEIR BEST IN THE DERBY QUALIFYING SPECTACULARS,Coast to Coast & D'bI too. If they are as objective and honest and gregarious as WE ARE, THE REWARDS "ALONG THE WAY" COULD BE SATISFACTION ENOUGH TO TRY TO JUDGE THE BEHAVIOR OF AN ANIMAL AT A GIVEN TIME ON A SPECIAL DAY.10 furlongs is tough to RUN when an ANIMAL IS GOING LESS IN THE RUN-UP & YET 'BRED' FOR MORE and to be just A FEW YARDS FASTER THAN ALL OF THE OTHERS!

If NOT it could be like trying to judge which jar of SMUCKERS is 'better--best' than 3 thousand other STRAWBERRY--24oz. jars. I think a mid-odds entry will be in the top 3 finishers. And that only 3 or 4 will be in contention at the 9th/10th pole That axtra furlong is a deal-breaker as is the guy who wants more than a final offer from the auto dealership will allow for his trade-in. So why WILLY around. GO WITH YOUR GUT and DON'T OVERLOAD the PURSE> I like IWR,D, FR, & CC TO BE IN the TOP 6.. JJ maybe With WILLY and #5 too & BRIGHT YELLOW>>...

Thats HANDICAPPING<<<>>>!! VAN

re: Weekend Recap a New Top 10, OK...Top 12

Slew.em.All — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 19:04:53 GMT

Rana: what happened to Holy Bull in the Derby?..plus SAB only won when he was loose on the lead.

This is getting stagnant,so let's move on after this: You take QR who has only 4 starts,one 2-turn race to his credit,has had perfect trips sitting behind cheap speed and inflated #'s @ GP...And I'll go with experienced Bulldogs who have proven themselves multiple times going 2-turns(1 1/4miles will not be a problem),can be placed anywhere during a race without compromising their chances,and have a stronger kick down the stretch...Bottom line: QR will see Real Racehorses in the Derby and not the sprinters speed he's used to.He will not have an easy trip like he's accustomed to.Notice he barely beat a tired,inexperienced Dunkirk who didn't change leads in the stretch.Trust me,when either IWR,POTN or FF come-up and eyeball him,they'll scoot right on by.These 3 have a solid foundation/bottom underneath them,they will not "hang" like Dunkirk did.All 3 are better than the "allowance winner",no disrespect to Dunkirk,but if QR barely beat him,on a speed-favoring track no-less,imagine what he's up against when facing these Monsters...you're blinded by your wishful thinking ways buddy.We'll shall see.

re: Weekend Recap a New Top 10, OK...Top 12

Matthew W — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 08:45:05 GMT

#'s #'s #'s!!! Quality Road has won one two turn race and the track was very much to his favor that day---anyone who says he has the #'s advantage based on that one two turn race is blowing smoke! He MAY be the best horse--but that is not yet obvious!

re: Weekend Recap a New Top 10, OK...Top 12

Householder — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 05:14:52 GMT

Lamarv 7/4 looks like you got the Cash Call Trifecta there with CC, POTN, and IWR. Little has changed since then.

re: Weekend Recap a New Top 10, OK...Top 12

Ranagulzion — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 01:51:03 GMT

SLEW: One last point. It is Okay to be one dimensional if nobody can out run you. Holy Bull looked one dimensional but could not be outrun down the lane, Spend A Buck seemed one dimensional and could not be caught most of the time so too was the great Dr. Fager. QR isn't really one dimensional according to his trainer. He just has a very high cruising speed and when roused he sprints pretty darn fast. IWR, FF and POTN would need to get a jump on him to outrun him. Isn't the lesson of Dunkirk very clear? The extra furlong of the Derby will be no problem based upon both his performances todate and pedigree (especially on his Dam's side). Think on these things Bro.

re: Weekend Recap a New Top 10, OK...Top 12

Ranagulzion — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 01:04:31 GMT

SLEW.em.ALL:

Nice try. I'll be first to admit that I touted "Jose" to my shame but how many of your selections have been lame? I wouldn't do tit for tat with you since I was pretty bold on "Jose" and right now that horse has given you one-up on me. I'll take my knock ...we all do, but I'll get even and my name aint stephen. I dont want revenge just lots of Drama and Quality performances from Rachel Alexandra.

Wow, I'm no poet but you wouldn't even know it.

We all know that part of the fun of handicapping is that it is not an exact science and that any number of factors including some mysterious ones can affect the outcome of a race. However my point is that a reasonable/ logical and honest assessment of the statistics of past performances of each horse lead to certain reasonable and logical conclusions. If a handicapper is throwing into his calculations a great deal of sentiments and speculations that's a matter to be honest about. No one should take issue with anybody's sentimental choice but don't deny the facts or try to do a "spin doctor's" number on them. The known facts of past performances suggest that Quality Road is "el numero uno" going into the Derby. True, I Want Revenge, Friesan Fire and Pioneer Of The Nile could possibly be as good or even better but their performances on terra firma in our time-space world has yet to tell us that. Those who say otherwise are loading up a lot of good wishes, sentiments and complex psychological factors into their choice. That's alright but acknowledge it folkes.

re: Weekend Recap a New Top 10, OK...Top 12

Slew.em.All — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 21:37:37 GMT

Ranagulzion: IWR,FF & POTN are very tractable and swifter than what they've shown.It's just that they didn't have to go any faster in their preps.No problem.They're not one dimensional like QR is.And with a fast pace to run at,these 3 along with others running this weekend,will have a heckuva' shot at the softened-up QR once the real racing begins.

And QR didn't really "change gears" against Dunkirk.It was more Dunkirk tiring and not switching to his correct lead in the stretch.

Plus,your "handicapping objectivity & assessments" have been down the drain for awhile,Mr.Jose Adan....speak easy!

re: Weekend Recap a New Top 10, OK...Top 12

Lamarv 7/4 — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 21:02:25 GMT

I'm old school. Rassmusen likes the breeding of POTN, IWR, but loves the breeding of CC. These are the only three horses in the derby that are weighted within 10 lbs of the highweight in the expermintal highweight for two year olds. These three are my exata and trifecta box.

re: Weekend Recap a New Top 10, OK...Top 12

Ranagulzion — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 20:12:47 GMT

SLEW.em.ALL: Closers that lack pace against horses of the calibre of QR have to do too much to get on terms and if they do, horses like QR changes gear on them a la Dunkirk (Florida Derby) and the race is over. It is funny how many of the same people who ranked Dunkirk above Quality Road before the Florida Derby haven't learned their lesson and insist on putting IWR, FF and POTN above QR. LOL.

Such handicapping make Ranagulzion look like a genius when all that's called for is just some objectivity and old fashioned honest assesment. If your pick is a sentimental one, no problem, but don't pretend that its based on assessment of the facts.

re: Weekend Recap a New Top 10, OK...Top 12

Slew.em.All — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 18:29:50 GMT

Gotta' love when certain people post 4f-6f splits of "said" horses races and think if others can't run those same splits,then they're doomed and the race is over at that point,but needless to say,the race is 10f not 6f.And we know this much: IWR,FF,POTN(to name a few) have a much better stretch kick/acceleration down the lane than QR.If he runs those type of fractions in the Derby,he's toast because they won't be accomplished as easily as he did @ GP where he sat and took-over when the cheap speed retreated.In the Derby he's going to have to giddy-up from the get-go and not have the luxury of a "perfect trip" which he's accustomed to cuz' of the "quality speed" he'll face.Trust me,he won't run them off their feet without compromising his own chance in the race.And how will QR react to the jostling going into the 1st turn,or if he's not in his "usual" position down the back-side with all that kick-back dirt striking him?..No thanks,his inexperience to adversity won't bode well in the Stampede for the Roses.I'll stick with the hardened,experienced multiple 2-turning horses like IWR,POTN or FF..QR is not BB,and this isn't a sorry bunch of 3yo's like last year.

re: Weekend Recap a New Top 10, OK...Top 12

anti draynay and thong song! — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 14:59:34 GMT

I watch the SA derby and i wasnt impressed with any of those horses. POTN looks average to me at best the only horses that have that killer instinct are IWR, QR and killer willy if you look at those three horses with 250 yards to go or less they are absolutely flying! FF,Musket man, POTN and the rest of the field have zero chance come derby day!

re: Weekend Recap a New Top 10, OK...Top 12

Wanda — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 14:40:09 GMT

To funny Draynay. If you got to wear that pink dress, I want to see photo's posted on this website deal?

re: Weekend Recap a New Top 10, OK...Top 12

slyder — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 13:00:42 GMT

I'll give you this nay nay, you make some outrageous promises. I'm willing to bet that your last one's involving the pink dress etc. will have some of these bloggers screaming for IWR come Derby Day. It won't be because of the horse but because of your condescending attitude towards anyone who dare question your choice whoever it happens to be on a given day. I suspect though that if IWR wins the Derby you will go back on your word anyway. Kinda like when you promised to never handicap another race in your life if your pick at another time lost his prep which he did. I can't even remember which pick that was since you have changed your mind so many times. On the other hand I may be wrong. It could be that you already have your dress picked out for the Belmont and intend to wear it no matter who wins the Derby.

re: Weekend Recap a New Top 10, OK...Top 12

SmartyGuy — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 12:24:44 GMT

Lots of good info here people, and it sure is entertaining. Even though Dray could lighten up a little, I have to agree with him on QR. I just think he fits the mold of a Derby winner. Big, strong colt that can run sustain a fast pace. After watching the Florida Derby I don't see any problem with him getting the extra eighth. I think he is the best horse, and he's Smarty 1/2 brother, gotta love that!!!!!

Another thing, is in my opinion closers can have such a tough time in a 20 horse field. Way to easy to get bottled up and never get a chance to even make their big run. I was at the SA Derby last weekend and POTN was visually impressive. This is on fluid, effortlessly running horse. I hope he does well, b/c he deserves to do well.

I think when it is all said and done QR on top, with POTN, & IWR right there chasing him down the home stretch. CAN'T wait to see it.

I really like the heart of Musket Man. He just gets it done, a working mans horse.

GO QR!!!!

re: Weekend Recap a New Top 10, OK...Top 12

August Sing — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 08:34:55 GMT

curlin, I suggest you take your medication that the doctor prescribed. The delusional and grandiose thinking that you exhibit could get worse, requiring hospitalization.

I Want Revenge ran the last 5 furlongs of the Wood because he wasn't used for the first 4, and was nowhere close to the fast pace being set in front of him. He didn't beat much. Visually, the race may have appeared impressive to some but, the real story was the pace of the race and the weather/track condition they ran in, in my opinion. Sometimes, there are stories within stories, and what may appear obvious to many, may belie the real truth.

Let me digress for one moment. I could give you racing stories to support what I'm espousing but, you probably would not agree, even though I was directly part of it and saw it, up close and personal style, as they say. And, if you weren't there to see the races, the conditions, or know, beforehand, you would be oblivious to it, and never know, unless someone told you, as I have tried to. I wish you luck with your selection for the Derby. He has some talent. He has won some races but, he has not impressed me. I like Quality Road, as you know. But, with the quarter crack his performance and even entry for the Derby may be up in the air. Jimmy will not run him, if he is not fit and ready. Jimmy saw the quarter crack as soon as Quality Road was brought into the paddock for the winner's circle presentation. Jimmy, like his dad, doesn't miss much when it comes to horses. Far be it from me, to ask you to factor in Quality Road injuring himself during the running of the Florida Derby, and the type of race that he ran but, that would be too obvious. Aside from Quality Road not running, I would still rate several horses above, and expect that they will perform better than I Want Revenge. They would include in no particular order: Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom, and Desert Party.

re: Weekend Recap a New Top 10, OK...Top 12

The Rock — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 03:29:35 GMT

Dray,

So another proposition eh? lol. Weren't you suppose to stop picking horses or quit horse racing by now based on your MANY failed props? I'm telling ya, you touting QR is only going to make his chances worse for the Derby. You already gave him a quarter crack.

re: Weekend Recap a New Top 10, OK...Top 12

Ranagulzion — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 02:41:00 GMT

IWR is indeed an impressive colt and so too are Friesan Fire and Pioneer Of The Nile. However the hard statistical evidence of their respective performances in the Derby preps, in terms of the quality of competitors, split and final times, speed figures and Derby-pedigree-profile, so far show that they are not in the same stratosphere as Quality Road. Those horses currently rank alongside Dunkirk but against QR the difference is clear. You can spin the facts anyway you like but there is no evidence based upon performances that suggest that any other 3YO should rank above Quality Road. Whereas Jason has been pretty lousy with his recent handicapping, he can be sympathized with for his rankings.

Jason: I'm sure you don't mind me calling a spade a spade, instead of an agricultural impliment, with reference to your recent handicapping record.

At this stage of the 3YO season there are only two other horses that could conceivably keep company with Quality Road doing splits of 45 and change for the first half mile and 1:10 and change for 6 furlongs and still be around to look him in the eye down the lane. Big Drama and Rachel Alexander being absent from the Derby line up, the list should read: i) QR ..4)IWR 5)"killer" Willy 6)Friesan Fire 7)Dunkirk 8)Pioneer Of The Nile 9)Chocholate Candy 10)Musket Man.

re: Weekend Recap a New Top 10, OK...Top 12

Matthew W — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 02:27:14 GMT

Dray as much as I wouldn't like to see Jeff Mullins in the winners circle, You in a pink dress on Belmont Day does intice! Of corse, the green cash I'll be getting with my POTN/Freisan Fire ex box will trump all on Derby Day!

re: Weekend Recap a New Top 10, OK...Top 12

Matthew W — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 02:22:09 GMT

Cavoneer should have won the Derby---he had a big steady at head of stretch and lost by a nose--Bob Baffert usually makes a splash when he has a horse---and he has a horse this year! If he dirts......look out! It's starting to look like a trend with the success of the West Coasters...Albertus Maximus...Well Armed...I Want Revenge...if he dirts, Pioneerof The Nile is the horse to beat in Kentucky---he's beaten some tough guys--and like I said, you can pick your Derby trainer...I'll take Bob Baffert.....

re: Weekend Recap a New Top 10, OK...Top 12

LDP — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 02:11:08 GMT

August Song,

To tell you the truth, in track, i don't care where you come from, front back or middle, if your against the wind, it's hard as h///. If your running into it on the first turn, front people may get it a bit worse, but, in sprints, which can go up to a quarter mile or one lap, your staggered, so that doesn't make a difference. In a longer race however, everyone is so spread out most of the time everyone gets the wind at some time or another. Now if your on the final turn or straight, trying to make up ground, then it makes a difference, but to closers, because as i said the runners are pretty spread out and if your trying to make up ground in a headwind, god be with you. I should know, i'm one of those who like to sit back then run at the end.

re: Weekend Recap a New Top 10, OK...Top 12

Slew.em.All — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 01:53:08 GMT

Dray is singing that lame same song all over again.Too bad he's not a man of his word.You kept saying IWR & FF had no shot @ winning their respective preps,then when they kick-ass you don't uphold your end of the bargain....anyways,keep on dismissing their chances as we all know you haven't a clue what you're talking about..

re: Weekend Recap a New Top 10, OK...Top 12

Draynay — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 22:25:54 GMT

Curlin you are aware that IWR ran the first half mile in OVER 50 seconds ? If he does that in the Derby the race will be over when he hits the top of the stretch. Fact is he has never seen splits at 6 furlongs like 1:10 he has only seen pace that is 10 lengths slower. Good luck with him in the Derby. He is 0 for 2 against Pioneer of the Nile and has a 19 year old jockey ... no thanks!!!

re: Weekend Recap a New Top 10, OK...Top 12

Wanda — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 22:08:37 GMT

Hey Curlin don't blame the Canadian clipper but I totally agree with you. When a horse walks out of the gate and can close like he did is amazing. I don't care who he beat or what the time was, it was a great feat for any horse to do. You can analyze it any way you want but that shows me that he's a pretty nice hide.

re: Weekend Recap a New Top 10, OK...Top 12

TerriV — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 21:59:05 GMT

Thank you, Greg J for the link. I thought this race looked just like her last one. She may have been held back a little too long but I think there must be another issue. Can't really say what, maybe she's tired or it's growing pains or she hasn't adjusted to the changes since last year. Horses (especially thoroughbreds) are so sensitive. Mike Smith has been so close to her, has he made any comments?