Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby Analysis

re: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby Analysis

LDP — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 00:43:37 GMT

I too am wondering if the synthetic to dirt stuff is being over dramatized, at least when concerning the west coast tracks to east coast, i think the east synthetics play more like turf than the west. Also, CJ was not a disaster when he switched, he actually had a fantastic work on the Churchill Downs dirt, then made a big move in the Derby, but flattened out, then redeemed himself with a gutsy Travers win. This year the west has strutted it's stuff with Well Armed, Papa Clem, and IWR. What's to say POTN can't do the same. His pedigree has dirt, he has a nice big long stride, that can be much more effective on dirt, and he's already shown his versitility by being able to win from anywhere, and on two surfaces. This horse is an all rounder, so who's to say this horse can't handle dirt? I say he can, and if he takes to it you'd better watch out.

re: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby Analysis

Householder — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 22:56:02 GMT

I'm still not convinced that Col John was a synthetic to dirt disaster. He seemed to make a big move into the stretch but just flattend out like a lot of dirt horses do as well. I think the synthetic to dirt thing is over played. A lot of quality horses seem to transition well (IWR, Papa Clem, Zenyatta, Well Armed) I'm now questioning whether or not Col John was good enough to win a Kentucky Derby. But your right Greg J. It would be nice to see all of the horses have one run over the Churchill surface prior to betting time as a lot of "dirt" horses tank on the sand as well.

re: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby Analysis

LDP — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 19:44:35 GMT

Gun Bow,

I did the math, though it may be wrong, on the final furlong for the AK Derby and got 12.26, which normally ppl will count that as 12 1/5. You are right, it does seem Jones put more foundation into him this time, and it is a shame he got injured. I feel had he not he would've come back and won that race. I hope everything works out ok with him, he is too good a horse for it not to.

re: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby Analysis

Greg J. — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 19:17:20 GMT

Jason,

Thanks, You are correct, That was a Great Tri, BUT I should have kept Win Willy on for the super, Would have been $2000.00 for a $2 bet !, Oh, Well....We will take what we can get, lol...I can't wait for "Summer Bird" in the Belmont!

Householder,

I will agree that "Pioneer of the Nile" has beaten those three horse BUT,

"Pioneer of the Nile" has never run on dirt, Rumors that he doesn't like the dirt, Went to California apparently to take advantage of the synthetic surfaces there, Bill Mott, his previous trainer, had the feeling that Pioneer of the Nile was not at his best on dirt,raced him as a 2-year-old on turf at Saratoga, where Pioneer of the Nile won once, tried him on the synthetic surfaces, most notably at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita, where he encountered traffic problems but still finished only three lengths behind the winner. He reminds me of Colonel John, Who went to the Derby as the best of the West and was sent off as the second choice, but he spun his wheels in his dirt debut and finished sixth.

re: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby Analysis

Jason Shandler — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 18:16:16 GMT

Greg J: Nice hit! Summer Bird getting third made our tri a decent price. Glad you cashed.

re: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby Analysis

Householder — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 18:15:46 GMT

How good does POTN look now? He's beaten Papa Clem, IWR, and Chocolate Candy...not to mention racked up a million in earnings.

re: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby Analysis

MATT H. — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 15:04:26 GMT

as for the arkansas derby my though was this old fasion was going to set the pace he did a typical larry jones horse move that i have seen everytime he gets way out front to set the pace and cant hold it. it doesnt matter who the jockey is domiguez or thomas was quite suprised after the race when they developed and injury i knew after the race he couldnt run in the derby anyway and all he can do is run 1 1/8th of a mile and that doesnt get the job done as for win willy bigges one hit wonder i have ever seen when did that hosre get like 5th or soemthing? and for all you theregoesjojo fans in the blue grass calvin wasnt going to help the situation anyway i knew that horse was medyoker to begain with and i really got to laughing at mufaas for ha horse that was shiped from england he wasnt really a factor anyway a horse i was sighly impressed with was general quater i was look at his stats last night he has the same stat sheet as pioneer of thenile 4 or 5 vitories and one 5th place finish the diferance is would i be willing to take him in the kentucky derby i dont know if that horse can handel that short of a turn around i wil tell you what i mean by that youare asking a horse ro run a race 3 weeks from the derby want him to win it and have him run in the derby and want him to do it in techincally in 2 full weeks

re: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby Analysis

Greg J. — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 17:06:56 GMT

Old Fashioned sure showed courage to run like that with that type of injury, Hope he heals well, even though, I believe his racing career is over...

I just read that "Win Willy" will not be in the Derby, The owners want to give him a break...

By that happening, Dunkirk has a spot in the derby...

"Summer Bird" is being pointed towards the Belmont, His connections have said...

I did well with the Arkansas Derby!

Jason,

I have you to thank for that, I had OF, WW, Summer bird....I read alot here on what was said about Papa Clem, so I took WW off tri ticket..

I Had $24 tri box with OF, PC, Summer Bird...

Hit for $1,100.00, so thanks again!

re: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby Analysis

da3hoss — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 12:13:20 GMT

I did have Summer Bird under PC (who I thought was due) and OF (who I think is (was) one of best), it was my second TF of the weekend.;-) There was no "savvy" about it...I just have a soft spot for Birdstone babies...plus he looked awesome...nice athletic colt who ran an easy race and was full of run down the stretch.

re: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby Analysis

2:24 — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 11:39:58 GMT

Nice call on the Arkansas Derby Jason.

re: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby Analysis

GunBow — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 07:40:36 GMT

LDP:

I forgot to put the final eighth fraction in my post. I believe it was 12 and 2. So, Old Fashioned put together a solid late kick.

Although the was the rider change on Old Fashioned, from Ramon Dominguez to Terry Thompson, Old Fashioned ran very similar races. In both races, the early pace was very fast, with a first quarter and half in 22 and 2 and 46 in the Rebel, and a 22 and 3 quarter and a half of 46 for the Arkansas Derby. In both the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby Old Fashioned was given a breather, travelling a second half in 50+. In the stretch runs of both races, Old Fashioned finished decently after being given that breather.

The irony is that, given the injury, Old Fashioned finished better in the Arkansas Derby than in the Rebel. Larry Jones was clearly able to put some foundation and endurance into Old Fashioned between the two races, especially if the injury is taken into account. It is possible that the injury occurred after he had crossed the finish line. However, if it is assumed he suffered the injury during the race, the fact he was able to finish faster in the Ark Derby than in the Rebel testifies to Larry Jones as a trainer, and the talent and courage of the horse. One would have to conclude that w/o the injury Old Fashioned was sitting on a big performance and would have been tough to run down, especially with an uncontested lead and that breather during the second half.

Although I think most do not want to see any of the Derby possibles injured, the connections of Quality Road as well as his fans and those with Future bets on him are probably resting easier in the aftermath of the Old Fashioned injury. I am not saying that the Quality Road camp feared Old Fashioned, but if Old Fashioned were in the Derby he would have represented, by far, the best frontrunner Quality Road has faced. Old Fashioned is not This Ones for Phil or Casey on Call; Old Fashioned was classy speed, and could carry that speed at least 9 furlongs. He might not have been with Quality Road at the wire, but he would have stuck with him for a long time. Things are alot easier for Quality Road with Old Fashioned on the sidelines.

re: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby Analysis

El Kabong — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 06:41:22 GMT

Right now, I'd have to say we will see Regal Ransom, Quality Road, and Square Eddie(if he runs) on the lead. Only Quality Road will have the gas to hang but I don't see the strength in Pedigree or the strength in his schedule to get him 10F after maintaining his speed in the first 9F. That leaves the best shot for one, probably two, of the mid pack cruisers with the tactical speed to be in the first group behind the front runners, a great opportunity to prevail in the stretch. I see Friesan Fire, Desert Party, General Quarters, & Musket Man, with the best chance of winning. If Friesan Fire gets the ride, he wins, but Desert Party has Dettori, a master at the game of big fields. I like those two best of all. No Nile, No Candy. Two words explain why-Colonel John. I Want Revenge, if you look at the fields of the Gotham and Wood, didn't beat anybody. Bernie the Mush stayed with him. Take a look at who Bernie lost to in the past and tell me IWR will hold up to this bunch. Dunkirk may get up for 4th,deep closers usually do in this scenario,but I just don't see a horse with that little experience dealing well with the crowd, especially if Gomez rides the Nile. Papa Clem or Giant Oak has a better chance of scrapping a low hanging 4th. I'll Key Quality Road 2nd on one ticket and 3rd on the other. He makes the ticket reasonable if he hangs on for either position. I'll put down the crystal ball before Sauron sees me. Ok, shred away.

re: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby Analysis

Matthew W — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 04:25:32 GMT

This is one of those weird years when all the good horses have stayed away from each other and beaten up on lesser.....As good as we think these guys are, I simply cannot throw out the one/two finishers of The Bluegrass---Hold Me Back had an awesome prep! And General Quarters, he's for real as well! Keenland seems a bit tiring--good! Both of those guys should get the whole Derby Distance--The beauty of The Derby!--No one knows! I just know this--MOST horses in The Kentucky Derby cannot get 1 1/4 vs Gr 3 horses--let alone Gr 1--I think Hold Me Back and Kent will be way 'live" on first Sat

re: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby Analysis

Matthew W — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 04:08:57 GMT

Heard a SoCal radio tout say Gomez should go with Dunkirk if he can...Seems like the "waiting to commit" tactics favor that choice---To me, Bob Baffert deserves better, but when you're GoGo you get to make'em wait---I'd love to see Gomez jump ship--then POTN will go off at 10-1 and they'll be sayin' "Bob got me again!!!" NO WAY can I toss out POTN---nor will I toss out Gen Quarters---This looks like one of those years when you'll get your price on anyone! To me, I think the only guy that goes off under 6-1 is I Want Revenge....Freisan Fire, Quality Road, Dunkirk I think will all be lower odds than POTN...that's right, especially if GoGo defects--Pioneerof The Nile, the only multiple Gr 1 winner in field/longest winning streak (all graded stakes)---will be no more than fifth choice on First Sat! NO WAY will I pass on that!

re: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby Analysis

LDP — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 19:18:04 GMT

Gun Bow,

I agree with you, considering OF sustained the fracture during the race i admire the hearty he showed. I know that some say the second half was slow comapared to the first, but if you look a the last furlong, they came home in a strong 12 1/5 seconds. That is to me very impressive, considering OF did fast opening fractions. I have to wonder if he hadn't gotten hurt if he would've won.

re: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby Analysis

Jason Shandler — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 16:22:17 GMT

Thanks Gun Bow. I certainly was way off on the Blue Grass. The Ark. Derby did make up for it however. A full report on Monday.

re: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby Analysis

Matthew W — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 10:26:27 GMT

Thought The Bluegrass was top to bottom by far the strongest field of three year olds this year so far, which is kinda weird, as Freisan Fire/Quality Road/Pioneerof The Nile/I Want Revenge have so dominated in their locales...But General Quarters really impressed me today---I said after Fountain Of Youth I thought JoJo was not a two turn horse---General Quarters has now won two graded two turn races...as has I Want Revenge as has Pioneer as has Freisan Fire as HAS NOT Quality Road/Dunkirk--I'm gonna let those two beat me/I won't be putting them "on top" so to speak...but Gen Quarters will fight things out on Derby Day---and Kent has a live longshot as well....Good to see a Stute in The Derby again! Papa Clem's an improving colt/well bred/Raphael rode a great race at Oaklawn....Plenty of questions this year: Is Pioneerof The Nile fast enough? Can Quality Road do it again in Kentucky?...Is Freisan Fire as good as people have told me?...Can Dunkirk turn the tables on a more fair track?...enter General Quarters...He repeats his earlier smashing win at Tampa over Musket Man in tough Bluegrass...lots of questions/The Gen answered his today--he fits!!

re: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby Analysis

GunBow — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 06:24:00 GMT

Old Fashioned suffered a fracture to his right knee during the running of the Arkansas Derby, and his career may be over. Given this, I marvel at how well Old Fashioned was able to fight in the stretch.

re: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby Analysis

GunBow — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 06:11:20 GMT

Jason:

I'm going to give you some props, but in case others feel I'm *ss-kissing I will say that until this Saturday you have certainly been taking your lumps. However, and this is the main point, congrats on that Arkansas Derby tri. I noticed on the preview you were going to use Papa Clem and Old Fashioned for the top two places in the tri and then maybe Flat Out or captain Cherokee underneath. However, this morning on the webchat, you said you were going to use ALL for the bottom of the tri. Did you, in fact, use ALL. If so, good call. And you were rewarded with Summer Bird in 3rd. However, I did notice the Oaklawn fans gave Summer Bird much more of a chance than the national handicappers, and, as a result, his odds at Oaklawn were not outrageously high.

As for your Blue Grass trifecta, if it was for all 3 finishing out of the money, you would have won :)

re: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby Analysis

MAT — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 05:14:03 GMT

Old Fashioned sustained a non-displaced slab fracture to his right knee during the race. He's off the Derby Trail. Certainly this injury affected the outcome of the race. I didn't understand those fast early fractions at all and I though the game plan was for him to track Pappa Clem. I'm still scratching my head. He ran with courage, despite the injury. I hope he heals well.

re: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby Analysis

GunBow — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 01:18:34 GMT

Add Papa Clem to the list of Cali synthetic horses that have gone on to win huge dirt stakes. In addition to I Want Revenge among the 3 year olds, there has been Albertus Maximus taking the Donn, Two Step Salsa and Gayego running 1-2 in the Godolphin Mile, and Well Armed running away with the Dubai World Cup.

I'm actually not sure what to make of the Arkansas Derby. Visually, it appeared to be the weakest of the major Derby preps. Old Fashioned ran the first quarter in 22 and 3 and then the half in 46 flat, but the final time was an ordinary 149. Watching the race, Papa Clem did not appear to be travelling particularly well on the backstretch, with Flying Private and Captain Cherokee moving up on his inside while still 4 lengths behind an uncontested Old Fashioned. Surprising to me, Papa Clem was not on the lead, nor was he in 2nd or 3rd early, as Bejarano, wisely as it turns out, took him back behind the quick pace. In another good move, Bejarano kept Papa Clem to the outside, and avoided the retreating Ziegfeld. Papa Clem was not sensational, nor did he flash a brilliant turn of foot; instead, he was methodical, moving up steadily on the turn, and had enough of a kick to run down Old Fashioned while holding off the late runs of Summer Bird and Win Willy.

There are alot of things to like about Papa Clem. He has good tactical speed, and has some class, with his 2nd in the Bob Lewis, just a half length behind Pioneer of the Nile and ahead of I Want Revenge, looking huge now. And similar to General Quarters, Papa Clem's connections, trainer Gary Stute amd owner Bo Hirsch, bring a sentimental element to the Derby, with both trying to follow in the footsteps of famous parents/uncles.

The final time of 149 does not appear overly impressive at first glance. What is particularly troubling is that after that :46 half, they went the next two quarters in :25 and :25 and 3, for a second half of :50 and 3. So, around the turn, these horses were not moving fast, which is why Papa Clem was able to remain in contention and then move towards the lead without making an Afleet Alex type of surge.

However, upon further review, the final time appears more flattering. Although Oaklawn was favoring speed/stalkers, the track was acually playing on the slow side. Optional calimers only went 8.5 furlongs in 1:46, and lower-level claimers went 8.5 furlongs in 1:46-1:47. Additionally, the $75,000 Northern Spur for 3 year olds went in 1:37 and 3 for a mile. In comparison, that 1:49 for 9 furlongs in quite strong.

The time also compares well with past runnings of the Arkansas Derby. Last year, the fractions for the Ark Derby was 46 and 3, 1:11, 1:36 and 4, and 1:49 and 3. In 2004, Smarty Jones ran fractions of 46 and 4, 1:11 and 3, 1:36 and 4, and 1:49 and 2. Smarty earned a 109 Beyer for those times, while Gayego was given a 103 last year. Given the slower times earlier in the card and the Beyers for past runnings, I expect Papa Clem's Beyer to be near 103 (98-105).

For those discussing the imprtance of early fractions, Papa Clem has now demonstrated that he can lay close to a quick early pace, yet have enough late to win a $1 million race. With his tactical speed, Papa Clem should be able to stay with a horse like Quality Road early in the Derby. Whether Papa Clem can finish strong enough, particularly with his breeding (by Smart Strike out of a Belong to Me mare), is the big question in my mind. Even so, I think one would have to make Papa Clem a legitimate challenger, although I would place him below the big Beyer horses Quality Road and I Want Revenge, as well as Friesan Fire and Pioneer of the Nile, the horses that finished ahead of Papa Clem in his previous two starts. Papa Clem is further evidence that if Pioneer of the Nile takes to dirt, he is good enough to throw a huge scare into Quality Road and IWR. On synthetic surfaces, like turf, class seems to be more important than Beyers. By having defeated I Want Revenge, Papa Clem, and Chocolate Candy, Pioneer' has proven himself to be of the very highest class; it's all about the dirt now.

I have mixed feelings about Old fashioned's performance. For the second straight race, OF was passed by a horse in the stretch. However, for a second straight race he carved out very fast early fractions, running a first quarter in 22 and 3 and the half in 46 flat. Given that the track was not fast, OF was really flying early. I suppose he does deserve some credit for hanging on as well as he did, fighting to the very end. However, OF was able to set that lead without being pressured, and Terry Thompson was able to give him a significant breather, running the second half in 50 and 3. Given this, I really think if Old Fashioned was as good as so many thought earlier in the year, he should have won this race.

It's hard to feel confident about OF going 10 furlongs at Churchill, although the pace for the Derby is not shaping up to be very quick. One thing is certain, if Larry Jones does enter him in the Derby, OF will have a HUGE impact on the shape of the race. For here is a horse that can go out and run quarters in 22 and halves in 45.

Win Wally ran moderately. The early pace should have helped, but the middle fractions were soft, and Oaklawn has been playing to speed the last few weeks. Still, Win Willy was passed by the inexperienced Summer Bird around the turn, something which does not suggest a Derby win for Win Willy. I thought that, at the very least, he would be finishing fastest of all.

Flying Private lost any chance when he was forced to check when Ziegfeld started "moonwalking" rapidly around the turn. I am not going to claim Flying Private was going to win the race, but he was moving up on the inside of Papa Clem when Ziegfeld ran back into him. Valid excuse or not, it is hard to like Flying Private in the Derby, even with Lukas. In the past 34 years, no horse has won the Derby after running worse than 4th in their final prep, and Flying Private ran 5th in the Arkansas Derby.

Summer Bird is unlikely to have the graded earnings to get into the Derby, but he is certainly one to watch out for later.

re: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby Analysis

RickS — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 00:36:37 GMT

ALISHA... You were right to like Summer Bird, good call!

re: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby Analysis

jerry — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 00:10:01 GMT

Can sombody please explain to me why the Bluegrass is still a grade 1 event???? other than Street Sense using it for a tune-up race before the derby its no longer a major prep unless your a bottom feeder looking to get graded earnings late in the game....

re: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby Analysis

GunBow — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 23:49:12 GMT

Congrats to those like Travis, Slew em All, and EMD who didnt give up on General Quarters. For those fearing that the Blue Grass would be inconsequential and take Derby space from more legit contenders, don't worry now. GQ is already a graded stakes winner on dirt, and his Blue Grass was impressive. Distance doesn't seem to be a problem for GQ given how he finished in the Blue Grass, and he seems versatile enough to adapt to any pace. With the slow pace today, he was asked by Coa to sneak up and then responded strongly down the lane. While the early pace was a typically slow synthetic pace, the field ran the 4th quarter in 24 flat and General Quarters ran the final eighth in a strong 12 seconds flat. I think the Beyer should be strong for a synthetic race (synthetic Beyers are like turf Beyers and lower, per class level, than dirt Beyers); I'm thinking the Beyer will be high 90s/low 100s. And remember, GQ ran a 102 Beyer when he won the Sam Davis over Musket Man. This certainly validates the Tampa horses, which frankly I was not particularly impressed with at the time, and I think GQ would have to be rated alongside Musket Man. Add another solid contender to the fray. The Derby will have an "underdog" "sentimental" story w/ GQ and his connections.

Having seen Hold Me Back in person at Turfway, I was really high on him and was confident he would run well in the Blue Grass. He was my choice, and although he lost I thought he ran very well in the Blue Grass. There was absolutely no pace, which seriously compromised his late run. The big question is dirt. If he takes to it, this is a horse with serious talent and he should get a much better pace in the Derby. Also, while the Santa Anita Pro-Ride advantages stretch runners, the Polytrack at Keeneland, like the Polytrack at Turfway, favors stalkers/mid-pack runners, like General Quarters. Combine that with the slow pace, HMB did quite well to get 2nd. I'm quite optimistic about this horse's future. Worst case scenario, he hates dirt and becomes a strictly synthetic/turf runner. However, that's not a particularly bad thing, given the Breeder's Cup will be run on a synthetic surface (although one that appears quite different from Polytrack).

An intersting note: Unbridled's Song mares produced the top two finishers, GQ and HMB.

In trying to handicap the Blue Grass, I threw out Loch Dubh, Cliffy's Future,Mafaaz, Caritable Man (not because of talent, the layoff), and Massone. Well, I was wrong about Massone. He showed surprising early speed and then did well to hang in there down the stretch. This certainly validates the credentials of Chocolate Candy, because on paper this horse appeared outclassed. However, the El Camino was a weirdly run race, with a pace scenario that favored neither Chocolate Candy nor Massone. The California horses continue to impress outside that state.

Terrain ran well, nothing spectacular. He came with a nice late run and it appears he can run a classic distance, although his pedigree suggests he would be best at middle distances (Sky Mesa, Forty Niner mare). I'm not sure he has the natural talent/speed to win the Derby as he had only a career high Beyer of 91 coming into the Blue Grass. He has solid two year old back-class and has the earnings to get into the Derby. His best performances have been on synthetics, but he did run well on the dirt at Mountaineer last year. I see him more as a fringe contender.

Join in the Dance performed only moderately and doesn't seem suited for classic distances or the talent level that will be in the Derby. He still has a nice future, but a drop in class and distance to 8-8.5 furlongs would do him well.

I thought Charitable Man ran decently given this was his first start in about 7 months and first beyond 7 furlongs and at two turns. Charitable Man is going to be on the earnings bubble, but I really hope McLaughlin doesn't point him to Churchill. This is a talented colt and I think patience would do him best; I don't want to see him rushed into something that may be too stressful.

Hopefully, the classy John Gosden will keep Mafaaz out of the Derby. Going into the Blue Grass, I had "narrowed" my picks to Hold Me Back and then Jojo', General Quarters, Terrain and Patena for 2nd-5th. Well, at least I was in the ballpark for 3 of them. Jojo' and Patena are done, at least as it concerns the Derby. So much for Kent D. being the source of Jojo's ruin. Once again, I hope McPeek and Dutrow do the right thing and keep them out of the Derby. Remember, all of the last 34 Derby winners ran at least 4th in their final prep, with 28 of them running 1st or 2nd in that last prep. Fortunately, Jojo' and Patena are short on graded earnings and probably won't get in anyways.

re: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby Analysis

Ann in Lexington — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 22:29:29 GMT

Congrats Travis L. you nailed the exacta. Hope you cashed big-time.