Derby Earnings - Who's In and Who's Out?

re: Derby Earnings - Who's In and Who's Out?

Slew.em.All — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 15:36:12 GMT

lol..u might wanna' hit that 'spell-check' button though...No worries,the Real Cali Reaper,aka IWR has no fear of a biased blessed 1-time 2-turning pony who barely beat a tired & exhausted Dunkirk.If Mediocre..err..Quality Road had trouble with that 'allowance' winner,imagine what he's up against when facing Da' Bulldogs?

QR=OF=Congaree=Bellamy Road...watch & weep!

re: Derby Earnings - Who's In and Who's Out?

Matthew W — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 03:13:06 GMT

The Robert Lewis is the big prep and POTN won like a champ!...He'll be there in last 1/16 and he has the best kick/is the best horse of this crop....if POTN wins Derby he'll get it all.....BUT that is a big if....

re: Derby Earnings - Who's In and Who's Out?

i want revenge — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 23:31:24 GMT

dear mr. slew em.all i herd that you picked me to win that race in kentucky. i think people and you are making a big mistake. i herd about that other horse. he is way beter than me. mr. slew em i will lose. all the other horses running know it. people who bet on me are going to luse alot of money. i am tring to warn you. that other horse is to fast. maybe i can finish forth. i cant wait until this is over. i will be very enbarased. i herd people like yoursel will make me the favrite. big misteak.

yur pal i want revenge

re: Derby Earnings - Who's In and Who's Out?

steve s — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 19:29:12 GMT

Quality road is an easy winner unless Gomez rides pioneer of the nile or big drama decides too run.

re: Derby Earnings - Who's In and Who's Out?

Tim — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 18:23:36 GMT

If Summer Bird gets in with his earnings from the 3rd in the Ark. Derby he will run in the Ky. Derby... This is an improving horse who will absolutely love the mile and a quarter... If he doesnt make the Derby watch him in the Belmont and hopefully there will be a horse going for the Triple Crown so he can knock them off just like his daddy did...

re: Derby Earnings - Who's In and Who's Out?

MATT H. — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 15:24:49 GMT

dunkirk and pioneerof the nile are my 2 biggest questions going into the derby week gomez has his choice on who he wants to run and he said he will tell us on sunday and here is a hint for him i would take pioneerof the nile over dunkirk because he has more experiance and won more races and hase been proven i knoe nobody knows how well he will do on dirt and that is the major question he has to ask him self is what one he thinks will give him a shot to win the kentucky derby becasue in the past we know the jockey who have had 2 horse in the make or break your month if you make the wrong choice

re: Derby Earnings - Who's In and Who's Out?

Slew.em.All — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 20:36:15 GMT

Notice how most of the so-called experts across the US don't have QR on top of their Derby lists?..why?...Maybe because they're not easily swayed and awed by the #'s he's put-up @ GP with his perfect trips.We've seen plenty of these before,and had them absolutely tank in the Ky Derby.This year's crop is pretty damn good,especially the top-tier.It won't be a cakewalk for QR like some may think.His inexperience and lack of over-coming adversity will be his downfall @ Churchill's Stampede For The Roses.

re: Derby Earnings - Who's In and Who's Out?

Greg J. — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 19:27:39 GMT

GW,

In my opinion, JL is a better jockey then EC, and if anything, that will help GQ, not hinder him, A jockey can hurt a horse more then help him, and I just think this GC is a better horse then MM, not saying he will win, I already know "Friesan Fire" will do that, General Quarters will be on the board though.....

I don't think Quality Road will even make the race, Quarter Cracks are very unpredictable....

re: Derby Earnings - Who's In and Who's Out?

gw_bushwacker — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 18:54:30 GMT

Greg J,

if your handicapping is based on who rides the horse you are in big trouble. It's the horse who does the running and GQ is not in the same league as QR. The best jock wins races less often the the favorites do and that's not a large percent of the time. 8 out of ten times you are going to be wrong picking by the rider. Peppy Lepeoux may be a good jock but he can't carry GQ over the line ahead of QR and others.

re: Derby Earnings - Who's In and Who's Out?

Greg J. — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 16:25:11 GMT

General Quarters just moved to number two on my Derby picks....Just named Four-time Churchill Downs’ riding champion Julien Leparoux as his jockey

Enough Said...

Eibar Coa is going to feel like a IDIOT when Musket Man is nowhere to be found on Derby Day...

re: Derby Earnings - Who's In and Who's Out?

Greg J. — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 14:29:31 GMT

Jason,

I disagree, I could be wrong, But won't Edgar Prado be on Square Eddie in Derby? Because I thought his regular rider Rafael Bejarano apparently committed to Papa Clem as his Kentucky Derby horse ?

My picks...

Parade Clown (Hottest jockey, Julien Leparoux)

Pitched Perfectly(Alan Garcia)

Square Eddie(E. Prado)

My dark horse is Omniscient(Robby Albarado)

Superfecta boxed...Trifecta Boxed

re: Derby Earnings - Who's In and Who's Out?

Jason Shandler — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 14:19:07 GMT

Prado may also be on Square Eddie if he goes. Either way, he will have a mount in the Derby.

re: Derby Earnings - Who's In and Who's Out?

phoenixky1 — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 13:55:00 GMT

Thanks Jason, unfortunately that doesn't leave a lot of the top jockey for Take the Points if he gets in.

re: Derby Earnings - Who's In and Who's Out?

Greg J. — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 13:53:19 GMT

FYI,

Change subject a little, IEAH Stables has tabbed Garrett Gomez as the new rider for STARDOM BOUND. Too bad for M. Smith, but when they meat up head to head down the road, he will be on Zenyatta....

re: Derby Earnings - Who's In and Who's Out?

Jason Shandler — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 13:43:34 GMT

Prado may ride Dunkirk or POTN. It depends on who Gomez chooses.

re: Derby Earnings - Who's In and Who's Out?

phoenixky1 — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 13:18:52 GMT

Does anyone know if Edgar Prado has a mount for the Derby with Imperial Council not making it? I am hoping that he is back on Take the Points, he knows how to ride the colt the right way. I wasy really upset with the ride he got in the Santa Anita Derby, when POTN passed him on the backstretch he wanted to go and Solis held him back, by the time he was asked to run he was caught in traffic, he should have been right there. I think being back on the dirt will be huge if he gets into the Derby.

re: Derby Earnings - Who's In and Who's Out?

Greg J. — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 13:03:50 GMT

Curlin,

Sounds like maybe your dog had a Quarter Crack?, Sometimes, You think it is healed, Then it just shows up......

re: Derby Earnings - Who's In and Who's Out?

Greg J. — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 12:58:10 GMT

Dray,

You know what they say,:

"A dog usually takes after their owner".....

Just kidding, Actually thought what you said was too funny...Good one!

re: Derby Earnings - Who's In and Who's Out?

draynot — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 12:11:55 GMT

Quality Road, that's all you need to know.

JR won't be looking over his shoulder or waiting to pull the trigger until someone comes to him like he did in the Fla. Derby. When you see a horse burst to the front turning for home and open daylight it will be Quality Road. Winning moves in the Derby are made right there. This time it's for all the marbles and Quality Road won't be waiting around for anyone trying to save something for tomorrow.

re: Derby Earnings - Who's In and Who's Out?

Curlin — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 06:40:22 GMT

Dray, so does this mean you're switching your Derby selection yet again to Daisy? What's her pedigree? She might just be a good breeding selection for Quality Road.

Since we're into allegorical stories, I have one for you. My wife & I had a dog once. The dog had some medical problems that required attention from the vet. After a week or 2 of treatment, the vet said the dog was fine and should experience no further issues. My wife and I were ecstatic because we thought the world of this dog. We told everyone what a great dog she was and they should get one just like her. She could outrun any dog on our street. She was a beauty. She was as fast as lightning. Needless to say, the vet was wrong. The dog never quite seemed the same after the medical issue. When we took her for walks in the park and she was playing with other dogs from other neighborhoods, she didn't seem to measure up like she did with the dogs on our street. We still love her, but she's just not what we once thought she was. It broke our hearts. I'm still in denial even after I saw it with my own eyes. I saw her run in our neighborhood and she just looked so fast. It has to be the effects of that dang medical issue. It can't be the fact that she's just not good enough, right?

re: Derby Earnings - Who's In and Who's Out?

Householder — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 06:15:26 GMT

Wow! POTN worked well today. I've seen him up close. He is the fittest horse I have seen since Alysheba. CC, POTN, Square Eddie, IWR, The Pamplemousse, Papa Clem...it's been a good ride this year out west.

re: Derby Earnings - Who's In and Who's Out?

jamesb — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 02:49:26 GMT

Crafty and Polamalu43, I couldn't be more on board with you about General Quarters. I'll take the 20 or 30 to 1 you'll get him at and not think twice. Watch the Sam Davis, the Bluegrass, and then look at his pedigree. Sky Mesa was leading 2nd crop sire last year, is #1 or #2 on the general sire list at this point, and had the 1,4,5 finishers in the Bluegrass. GQ has the same damsire as Hold Me Back (Unbridled's Song). He has won stakes on dirt and synthetic, has the right running style, seems to be fast enough, and should stay the distance.

Leave him out of the exotics at your peril.

How he only sold for $20k is beyond me. Probably because Sky Mesa had almost been written off.

I don't know if he can beat QR, IWR or POTN, but i would favor him over Dunkirk.

And before some wise-a$$ says a former claimer can't win the Derby....I offer Charismatic. Also, the race he was claimed from was a debut maiden at.....Churchill Downs. He has also now raced 11 times, so should be plenty fit.

Thanks to Andrew Caulfield and Bill Oppenheim from TDN for some of the research, but to my credit I hit the Bluegrass exacta cold so I liked him before they sold me even further. If only Join In The Dance (who is a beast...took two handlers to school him Friday before the Bluegrass and he was dragging them! No wonder he was rank) could have held third...

GQ, QR, IWR, Hold Me Back, POTN super box will be my only bet Derby day.

I have to toss Dunkirk based on the no 2yo starts, Papa Clem got crushed by FF, barely beat a horse who broke his knee and was getting caught late by a maiden winner, and Chocolate Candy is not at the elite level of this class. As far as Larry Jones and FF, I know he did it with 8Bs last year (1 1/16 being the longest race) but this isn't last years Derby field.

re: Derby Earnings - Who's In and Who's Out?

capper — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 02:06:11 GMT

If Reagel Ransom goes to the lead they might not catch him. Then throw in the 5 best closers and there your tri and super.

re: Derby Earnings - Who's In and Who's Out?

Matthew W — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 02:02:26 GMT

I don't think Freisan Fire will let anybody steal away with the race--when you have the kind of confidence Jones has it's "beat us to win" ala Hard Spun--go out with them ...a horse like Pioneerof The Nile, the way he goes past them so fast--then the way he waits on horses after he goes by--that to me is a sign of intelligence! He KNOWS what to do, then he eases back--maybe like Ferdinand, you haveta time it right but methinks when push comes to shove POTN has the fastest kick....

re: Derby Earnings - Who's In and Who's Out?

Matthew W — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 01:40:11 GMT

Dray save those losing tickets on QR--'ya can pick up the little puppie presents on the lawn with 'em! Ha--good luck, mate!