Lexington Stakes Analysis

re: Lexington Stakes Analysis

Shelly Pedigreejunkie — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 15:34:24 GMT

I think I WANT REVENGE has a great chance in the Derby.Any horse that can overcome a start like he did in the Wood has to be something special!

re: Lexington Stakes Analysis

Mike Relva — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 22:21:18 GMT

TO:THE PHANTOM

If you are of the mindset that Nicanor is a loser,you are wrong! Must be nice not to let knowledge get in the way!

re: Lexington Stakes Analysis

steve s — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 20:56:45 GMT

T sheik will not hit the board.vineyard haven was a bad buy but he dont care.

re: Lexington Stakes Analysis

August Song — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 08:15:21 GMT

Remember slew em if he could, I'll tell you after the Derby, what really happened to Road, aka: The Joker, during the Fountain of Youth race. His connections know it, and I know it. But, alas, you don't, and won't know until after the Derby. Bet your 3 horses, or the other 19 horses. I'll stick with just one, my original choice from a couple of months ago to beat everybody else in the 135th Kentucky Derby. Milkshake loving, and steroid using Mullins, and his horse don't have a chance. Take all the 19 other horses in the Derby, and you still won't win. I'll just take the little large-sized Mr. Quality Road, aka: the Joker, with Johnnie V. to win it all. Jimmy Jerkens, who spent 20 years as the assistant under his dad - the one and only Giant Killer, will give his dad a great 80th birthday present. These are true trainers in ever sense of the word, not druggists. Show me where Jimmy or his dad ever had a horse test with a drug positive. Hay, oats, and water, and superb training are the answers. slew em if he could, you have 19 other horses to my 1, and you still won't win.

re: Lexington Stakes Analysis

the_wiz — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 01:45:48 GMT

The only horse with a shot at Quality Road at his best is IWR. Between the two of them nobody has come close to running as fast as they have. If Quality Road is at his best and avoids trouble there is no contest. I really hope he goes off as third choice or higher. It'll be like taking candy from a baby.

re: Lexington Stakes Analysis

Slew.em.All — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 00:51:37 GMT

Rana & wrong song: QR is not even in my sight of vision,I'm not sweating him,I'll choose between IWR,POTN & FF the week of the Derby.

We'll see how QR reacts when he's facing speedy horses who aren't sprinters & won't back-up after 6f.--wrong song: since you believe thoro-graphs is the Gospel for racing,u might wanna' ask them which Adult Diapers work best for when you make a mess of yourself seeing your beloved shorten-stride down the lane.---Rana: u know better.U know my worth! LOL...Peace!

re: Lexington Stakes Analysis

Wanda — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 00:25:30 GMT

August Song no disrespect but I'll give you a little advice from an old racetracker. On paper things look pretty cut and dried but let me tell you when that gate opens with 20 head coming out of it plan A or B or even C can go out the window pretty quick.

re: Lexington Stakes Analysis

Ranagulzion — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 20:10:18 GMT

SLEW: I'll admit you hold a nice "hand" backing three horses to win while everybody else picks one but the "ace" (not the joker) Quality Road will beat you hands down buddy. I tell you, start preparing your excuses from now.

re: Lexington Stakes Analysis

August Song — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 17:22:45 GMT

LOL, Garrett and Ron Anderson chose Pioneer. He couldn't beat Road with Dunkirk, why not try somebody else?

There is no weakness in Road's running style. He will not be on the lead. He has plenty of speed but, go back to class, Racing 101 if you cannot figure it out. He will NOT be on the lead. He will be stalking Royal Ransom and Papa Clem and whoever else wants to fight it out up front. The Joker will stalk. The closers can get suck up trips but, they will be spinning their wheels to make up ground. Road, Johnnie V., and Jimmy into the winner's circle.

slew em if he could, last of the great handicrappers, will tell you otherwise. Listen to him, please. We want Road's odds to go up. I told you 2 months ago Road would win the Derby. slew em if he could, is still trying to guess who could possibly beat him. slew em if he could, might have a chance to pick the winner next year for the Derby, especially if only one horse is entered. Then, he just might get the winner.

re: Lexington Stakes Analysis

Slew.em.All — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 16:34:42 GMT

Thoro-graph Wrong song?..u mean the same people who had Haynesfield winning the Gotham?.The same Thoro-graphs who said IWR was going to 'bounce' in the Wood?.The same people who said IWR hasn't improved since he broke his maiden?.Really,those guys?...I rest my case.

So FF has no shot,because he was too slow as a 2yo,but Dunkirk has a shot and he didn't even race @ 2?..that makes no sense at all.You let other people handicap for you,and I'll do my own handicapping which has gotten' me a pretty good R.O.I on my 'capping skills.We'll see.

re: Lexington Stakes Analysis

Whisperoak — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 03:43:54 GMT

I Don't Think Quality Road Will Have Any Issues With The 1 1/4 Mile Distance In The Derby, I Think His Issue Will Be From Regal Ransom Or Any Of The Other Horses That Like To Run Up Front. If He Doesn't Rate (Although We Know He CAN, It's A Matter Of Him Doing It On Derby Day) Then He Could Have Some Issues.

re: Lexington Stakes Analysis

Slew.em.All — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 01:59:49 GMT

To Jason & all the bashers insisting that the horses from Cali are too slow this year.lol...you're right in that recently,Cali horses have disappointed but,even I knew better than to consider say,.a Buddy Gil or Castledale having a realistic chance of taking the KY Derby,seriously.But I will say this;IWR and POTN are are stone-cold Racehorses for sure.POTN has done what he had to do,never mind the #'s or splits,wait til' he hits the dirt and gets to run his race,a real professional type and Baffert doesn't go to the Derby unless he has a very realistic shot at winning...IWR is Beast! Just check-out his Gotham performance for confirmation.If it wasn't for all that trouble in the Wood,he would've ran the same race as before,pulling away at the end by 8+ lengths in 1:58 flat,hand ridden no less.Plus these 2 are swifter than what they've shown,they do what they have to do.Also Friesan Fire will be fine.He's plenty fit with all those 2-turn races under his belt and he's definitely improving at the right time.A good Horseman like Jones knows how to get a horse ready after a 7week relaxing period.This Boy can boogie..General Quarters is for real.He loves Churchill and is also peaking just right.I'll use him in my bets for sure.Papa Clem isn't in the same league as POTN or IWR,and look at what he did against a game OF...CCandy is tough.He should take to the dirt beautifully and be at his best...Mr.Hotstuff reminds me of Giacoma and we know what he did right.

re: Lexington Stakes Analysis

August Song — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 01:30:21 GMT

Jerry Brown, president of Thoro-Graph, the speed-figure service used by horseplayers, owners and trainers, was interviewed in a Ray Kerrison, a noted horseracing writer, column in today's New York Post. It is an interesting read.

I will summarize. "'Anyone of a bunch of horses could win.' "For all that, he has reached a firm conclusion on two of the hottest horses in the Derby --- I Want Revenge big winner of the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, and Pioneerof the Nile, the Santa Anita Derby hero. 'I'll probably be betting against both of them,' he said. Both horses come from California. I Want Revenge ran well on its synthetic tracks, but exploded when switched to dirt at Aqueduct. And that's the problem. 'He's had his explosion from synthetics to dirt,' said Brown. 'His Wood was not as good as his Gotham. I think he has had his explosion and is headed the wrong way.' Out he goes Pioneerof the Nile is a mystery. He never has raced on dirt. His first two were on grass and his next six on synthetic tracks. Brown says that Pioneer's winning effort over Hollywood's dirt-like Cushion track was slower than his wins at Santa Anita's grass-like Pro-Ride. 'So I think he is less likely to run well over Churchill's dirt than some other horses.' Out he goes. Quality Road, the possible Derby favorite, also has Brown guessing. 'I thought he had the ability to be another Smarty Jones,' he said. 'He was very fast as a 2-year-old, then ran enormous races as a 3-year-old in the Fountain of Youth and the Florida derby. If he runs to his best he can win. But now he has come down with a quarter crack and that throws everything up in the air. He's the joker in the pack. The way he trains from here to the Derby, and what his people say about him, is going to be extremely important.' Brown is also not sold on another popular betting horse, Friesan Fire, who won the Louisiana Derby over a sloppy racetrack. 'He will need to improve to win,' Brown said.'He's fast enough to hit the board. But his big race was in the slop, and even if he runs that fast again, it will just make him a contender. I don't think he's going to move forward. He was not that fast as a 2-year-old. I don't regard him as a serious threat.' The nation's top jockey Garret Gomez, has the choice of riding Pioneerof the Nile or another contender, Dunkirk. Brown is waiting to see which way Gomez jumps. 'If Dunkirk gets in and Gomez decides to ride him, he is one of the horses you have to seriously consider,' Brown concluded."

Well, it looks like all of slew em if he could's choices, are all toss outs. Is anyone really surprised? Better luck next year. Slew is a wonderful handicrapper for the Derby. Your eliminating all the real contenders at the start is straight out of "Let It Ride." The joker is going to beat you. You have my vote for the Handicrapper of the Year Award. Keep up your good work.

re: Lexington Stakes Analysis

LDP — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 00:30:13 GMT

Hey Mike,

I was kinda sad about OF, he was such a talented colt. In the AK Derby, i wonder how much he would've won by if he hadn't been injured. On the bright side this is one competitive crop this year. SE ran a fantastic race today, but i'd wait till the preakness or Belmont for him. I'm torn between a couple of horses right now, i love POTN, but Dunkirk reminds me so much of Curlin and i think he's really talented. Then I also like FF, mainly because i like Larry jones, and feel he deserves it. O my gosh i think i'm starting to sound like Dray. I'm just joking. I'll make my pick for sure when post positions are drawn. So who do you like?

re: Lexington Stakes Analysis

Greg J. — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 21:52:10 GMT

Some "Advice", Be "Conservative" with "Square Eddie", The Owners and Trainer should pass on the Kentucky Derby...

re: Lexington Stakes Analysis

LDP — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 21:24:47 GMT

Dray,

For one thing i don't bet, never have never will, at least not money. The track FF ran on was absolute slop, so it's no surprise that the fractions were slow, your horse on the other hand got to run on pavement, and beat a horse that you said was a plodder before your so called wonder horse beat him by less than two lengths. Must be nice to be a hypocrite, you can just switch from one horse to another. Believe me, being a hypocrite like you are and flip flopping around so much sounds a lot dumber that what you just twisted my words to mean. Just to let you know I never said FF would ever win, in fact i still like POTN and Dunkirk, both of which are more battle tested than your horse who gets perfect stalking trips behind cheap speed each time out. When your horse faces real speed up front and wins, not the cheap sprinters he's been facing, let me know.

re: Lexington Stakes Analysis

Mike Relva — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 20:51:16 GMT

HELLO LDP:

How are you? Sorry to hear about OF,I felt bad for you cause know you are a fan of his. I've been in Calif. visiting my gf,whom models part time,just returned this week. You have a good instinct on racing,I admire it!

re: Lexington Stakes Analysis

Mike Relva — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 20:47:03 GMT

HELLO DRAYNAY:

While I agree with much you say,also about QR. But,to totally discount FF I don't agree.

re: Lexington Stakes Analysis

Greg J. — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 20:11:09 GMT

Jason,

Off topic, who are your top three for the Ben Ali Stakes tomorrow?, Just Curious...

re: Lexington Stakes Analysis

Greg J. — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 20:00:23 GMT

Mike Relva,

Hey there, How have you been?, Haven't seen you in a while, Hope everything is well...

Slew.em.all,

I agree, QR will not hit the board!

The Phantom,

Yes, Up in lights did lose, At least I had the nerve to put up the $200.00 I won on "Mission Impazible", At 17-1, It would have been nice, But, I forgot, You must Hit every wager because you know everything...

Oh wait,

Aren't you the same person that said M.Matz never trained another stakes winner besides Barbaro?(Mr. Matz has trained 13 other stakes winners)

Aren't you the same person that said M.Matz never won a breeder's Cup?(Mr.Matz trained Round Pond to win the Breeders’ Cup Distaff,now Ladies' Classic)...

Aren't you the same person that said Mr.Matz was a one hit wonder? If what I stated up above is a one hit wonder trainer, WOW, then you must be so right(Not to mention that Barbaro was the most dominate winner of the Kentucky Derby in the last 60 years!)

So with all you knowledge Mr. Phantom, I apoligize for not winning with "Up in Lights"...

I only strive to be perfect like you, lol.......

Also, Your cat remark, So if I rescued two cats that were going to be killed the day I took them home from a shelter, That also must mean my Father who saved three horses from a kill shelter the day they were going to be killed don't meet you high standards....

I am sorry we don't meet up to your high standards, lol...

re: Lexington Stakes Analysis

Slew.em.All — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 17:16:08 GMT

Mike Relva: there you are! no need to go that far..I'm sure everyone is welcomed on this blog.But I've never declared IWR the out-right winner.I'm sticking with IWR,POTN & FF for the Derby and will Box them,plus add a couple of others for my Exotics...One thing is for sure though: I'm betting QR will NOT hit the board.

re: Lexington Stakes Analysis

psbjr — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 15:51:53 GMT

One horse, SPEND A BUCK. Yes he was lone speed after eternal Prince was sppoked by the infield and didn't get a good start but SAB destroyed the field in I believe the fourth fastest Derby.

re: Lexington Stakes Analysis

nmclean — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 15:26:38 GMT

For the Lexington Stakes I am going with the son of Holy Bull, Hull. I'll do an exacta box with Square Eddie being my other choice.

re: Lexington Stakes Analysis

Coldfacts — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 13:13:45 GMT

Draynay,

Both Quality Road and Regal Ransom sires belongs to the most lethal group of Derby winning sires ever i.e., grandsons of Mr. Prospector. They have sired three of the last six and five of the last 13 derby winners. In term of speed they are both fast horses. Quality won his 61/2 furlongs debut recording splits of 23, 46, 1:09 4/5, 1:16. Regal Ransom who is not a sprinter won his 7 furlongs debut recording splits of 22.74, 45.44, 1:09.37, 1:22.42 at the tender age of 2yrs 3mnth. Regal Ransom splits were the faster of the two debutant. If you are into dosage RR is a 2 and QR is a 2.83. Regal Ransom has the speed to match Quality Road and he is from a more potent dam line. His dam line features a combination of two of the most influential grandsires in the last 13 years and possible derby history i.e., Hail To Reason and Northern Dancer. This dam line has featured in three of the last four and five of the last nine Derby winners. This combination appears in the dam line of Big Brown, Monarchos and Fusaichi Pegasus.

Regal Ransom’s pedigree is a lot like his grand dam sire, Roberto. He is in bred five times between his 3rd and 5th generations, while Roberto is inbred six times between his 4th & 5th. His victory in the UAE Derby mirrors that of Roberto’s victory in the Benson & Hedges Gold Cup. Regal Ransom was never expected to defeat Desert Party who easily defeated him on two previous occasions. Roberto was never expected to defeat Brigadier Gerard who was undefeated in fifteen career starts. One could argue that Regal Ransom led from gate to wire shocking his doubters. It was reported that “Roberto was out of the gates like a bat out of hell” Shocked racing fans watched as the colt never looked back, handing Brigadier Gerard his only defeat”

Regal Ransom’s dam was sired by Red Ransom, a son of the above mentioned Roberto. The 2006 Derby winner Barbaro was sired by Dynaformer a son of Roberto. The second dam of the 2008 Derby winner Big Brown was sires by Lear Fan a son of Roberto. The second dam of great Australian race mare Makybe Diva was sire by Roberto. Regal Ransom’s sire Distorted Humor has been flirting with another Derby winner since his 2003 success with Funny Cide. One of the few 3YOs to defeat Curlin was Any Given Saturday. He destroyed both Hard Spun & Curlin in the 2007 Haskell. It took the photo camera to separate AGS and Street Sense in the Tampa Bay Derby. Who was his sire? Distorted Humor! A year earlier Barbaro was pushed to his maximum capacity by Sharp Humor to win the Florida Derby. Who was his sire? Distorted Humor! This guy sires quality horses.

Dismiss Regal Ransom at your peril

re: Lexington Stakes Analysis

ron in fla — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 11:56:47 GMT

I like Consevative hes good on the Turf so the Poly should be fine. He's peaking at the right time and if he gets into Derby his running style could have him in the Super.