Five Longshots to Consider

re: Five Longshots to Consider

merrywriter — Sun, 03 May 2009 18:35:18 GMT

Where were the real Long Shots - Atomic Rain, Summer Bird, and WINNER!!! Mine that Bird?

re: Five Longshots to Consider

Householder — Sat, 02 May 2009 23:29:08 GMT

Well done Jason. I hope you save a few dollars to play these! Thanks for stearing me towards MM. MM, Papa Clem, Chocolate Candy, and Summer Bird (picked the wrong Birdstone) were all included in my exotics with POTN on TOP! The dreaded Santa Anita curse lives on!

re: Five Longshots to Consider

Householder — Fri, 01 May 2009 23:46:55 GMT

I had not looked at MM. I kind of like him...the Cherokee Run influences. He may be this years Recapturetheglory. He could run an "even" fourth and hit the superfecta.

re: Five Longshots to Consider

Horswld — Fri, 01 May 2009 19:16:37 GMT

Greg J.,

Thank you for all of your comments and thoughts. The more I look at CC the more I like him but I still don't know where I would put him. Of course I have to put our boy "Fire" on top. Blinkers, yea, I'm wearing them too. I would like to see the track come up muddy but I don't think it matters either way. Just can't see him losing. Anything is possible but I have to stick with my guns on this.

Much good luck to you, Greg J.!!!!

See you on the other side........

re: Five Longshots to Consider

Greg J. — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 15:02:51 GMT

Horswld,

I posted this on other blog For "For Big Red" regarding Fire's #6 Post:

Honestly, At this point in time, I have blinkers on, Nothing can sway me from Friesan Fire, The Six post isn't perfect for him, but he has won before with traffic to his left and right, Blinkers play a big part for his concentration, I think he will be at or near the front(3rd or fourth maybe) at the turn, BUT with the forecast for rain(YES!), I am now thinking he will be on the lead at turn, and go wire to wire....wishfull thinking, yes, but with so few horses in the field who have actually run on a off track, it is more and more possibe...

Only six of the 20 Derby starters have ever raced on a track listed as other than fast: Desert Party, Flying Private, Friesan Fire, Join in the Dance, Nowhere to Hide, and Papa Clem. And, In my opinion, of those, Fire and Desert Party are the only legit contenders...

Muddy or OFF Tracks info:

Desert Party won the six-furlong, Grade II Sanford over a muddy track last year.

Flying Private was fifth, beaten 11 1/2 in his sole off-track try.

Friesan Fire won the Grade II Louisiana Derby on the slop by 7 1/4 over Papa Clem.

Join in the Dance finished second in his debut on the slop, but in the six-furlong NATC Futurity last year on a sloppy track, he was fourth by 13.

Nowhere to Hide, in his third start, was second by a half going a mile on a muddy/sealed track at Belmont Park.

No other runners have off track experience.

Also, On Chocolate Candy:

A few of the Reasons why I think Chocolate Candy will be third or second to Fire:

1. His race in the Santa Anita Derby was huge. Former jockey great Gary Stevens, who did the TV commentary for NBC, said he would have upset Pioneerof The Nile if the pace hadn't been so slow.

2. There's a big chance it'll rain on Friday and Saturday, and, says assistant trainer Galen May, "He just loves the mud. I hope it does rain."

3. Hollendorfer, who is headquartered in Northern California, is always in the conversation, along with Bill Mott and Todd Pletcher, when the topic is "Best Trainer Who Has Never Won the Derby." He has never gotten to the starting gate with a horse as good as this one.

4. His pedigree indicates he'll like the Derby's mile and a quarter, which is an eighth of a mile farther than any of the contenders has won. His sire, Candy Ride, won the Pacific Classic and his dam, Crownette, is a daughter of 1977 Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew.

5. Instead of sticking with Russell Baze, who rode him in both his Golden Gate Fields victories, Hollendorfer has opted for Derby veteran Smith, who won the roses with the longshot Giacomo in 2005 and has finished second three times in his 15 Derby rides since 1984. In two Derby rides, Baze finished 13th and 14th.

Assuming that everybody who likes chocolate candy won't bet on Chocolate Candy in the Derby, he ought to be a big price - maybe 40 to 1 or better.

Worth a shot....

Good Luck, Horswld....

re: Five Longshots to Consider

Draynay — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 13:16:43 GMT

Curlin ... your right I missed those two but the point remains the same Dunkirk ran a full second faster than those two and almost 2 seconds faster than the rest of the field.

Phileboy... I am fully aware of what I said about Dunkirk. However, the Florida Derby changed my mind and when Quality Road went down I HAD to admit who the best horse left standing was....Dunkirk.

Say what you want the fact is Dunkirk is going to win this race and I have to be honest and call it like I see it. Things change but the funny thing is months ago I thought the most talented 3 year old was a horse named Rachael Alexandra... I was told I was crazy back then and told to pick a real horse..... what do I know right... come back here after the Derby and let me know how Dunkirk finished......I promise you BUSHWACK won't have the winner.

re: Five Longshots to Consider

anti draynay — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 12:50:32 GMT

Come on Dray give it up Dunkirk is not QR and has no shot. I heard Dunkirk is not that big of a horse and QR was a beast! Team QR is on the shelf. Dont start hyping Dunkirk he is not that baller. Go with your gut buddy and get on CC bandwagon he has a live chance to win and you know it!

re: Five Longshots to Consider

Horswld — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 11:43:31 GMT

FOR BIG RED,

Thank you so much for your wisdom. I agree with your thoughts and wish you nothing but the best. God bless you and God bless all who will be watching and partaking in the greatest race in the world.

GO "FRIESAN FIRE"!

re: Five Longshots to Consider

EddieSr — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 07:19:45 GMT

This is for you ROAMIN;

Summer Bird, by Birdstone, won Belmont S., by Grindstone, won Kentucky Derby, by Unbridled, won Kentucky erby, Preakness S.

The damsire Summer Squall won Preakness S., 2nd in Kentucky Derby,

2nd damsire, Alysheba, won Kentucky

Derby, Pewakness S., 4th Belmont S.

3rd damsire Nijinsky, English Triple crown winner.

Summer Bird is part of my exotics but will set aside a small amount for win. Hope he runs at Belmont.

re: Five Longshots to Consider

Phileboy — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 06:50:45 GMT

Draynay, you're a funny guy, although unfortunately for you, it's doubtlessly unintentionial on your part. Gw_bushwacker really took you to woodshed by pointing out how you had insisted, time and time again, in comments you posted here, how Dunkirk was essentially a no-talent stumblebum -- and look, now you've become a convert, not unlike someone who succumbed to demon rum only to prostelytze against about the virtues of abstinence! In between your rants denigrating others' opinions, ask yourself, "Am I really so lacking in self-awareness not to realize how my postings seem so silly to so many so often." And as for your doctrinaire insistence that Dunkirk's interior splits somehow make him ready to have his picture taken in the winner's circle even before the Derby is run, well, I want to remind you of just two words: Bellamy Road!

re: Five Longshots to Consider

Curlin — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 04:42:53 GMT

"Only one horse has run a mile under 137 going 1 1/8th and since that is the average Derby pace only 1 horse has proven he can run that average Derby pace. I think we all agree the real running starts after a mile.

Dunkirk is the only horse to run a mile split running in the Derby UNDER 1:36... fact is no other horse did in under 1:37 ! So Dunkirk has been more than a FULL SECOND faster..."

Wrong again Dray. Go back at look at the splits for the AR Derby and the SA Derby and you'll see that both Papa Clem and POTN, respectively, were on the lead at the mile point and those splits were under 1:37. Both were at 1:36 and change. You could even say that Mine That Bird was just under 1:37 judging by the fractions for the Sunland Park Derby and his position at the mile point. By the way, looking at Mine That Bird's past performances and those fractions, I'd be willing to bet he's right up there with JITD & Regal Ransom on the front end. He won't last, but he'll be there for the 1st 6f.

re: Five Longshots to Consider

The Bid — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 03:49:27 GMT

Forecast is DEFINITELY going to play a major role in handicapping this race!!!! 70% chance of rain on OAKS Fri. and Scattered showers approximately 50% chance...HMM,HMM makes one think who will TAKE to an off-track...BIG RED(GREAT Horse though, still have issues w/ a bobby-pin and Spec.Bid would be w/ HIM) if weather is going to play a definitive role Sat. Friesan Fire not only has proven himself in the slop, but as WE all know on an off-track at Churchill, the inside track seems to be ALOT faster and FF is in PRIME position at #6.

re: Five Longshots to Consider

the_wiz — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 02:08:51 GMT

Jason,

If Desert Party can break alertly and avoid getting parked out wide he has a good shot. I do like the way he's coming into the race and since I have him on top and underneath in exactas from pools two and three I won't have to worry about laying anything more on him come saturday. I can afford to keep him off any new tickets I buy. If his odds climb that may be another story. As for his post position he's in much better shape then being stuck down inside. There is usually more room to manuever on the outside and maybe that will make the difference. He's not a total toss but i'll be more conservative with him now.

re: Five Longshots to Consider

Jason Shandler — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 01:32:51 GMT

Thanks for everyones comments, it's interesting seeing all the opinions. Special thanks to Big Red for all the data.

Have to disagree with Wiz a bit about Desert Party. I think he does have enough speed to put himself in position, especially against a fairly slow field. I ask you, is there a big difference between #19 and #16 (POTN)? I think post positions are overrated.

Anyway, back with a full analysis on Thursday afternoon. Thanks again!

re: Five Longshots to Consider

For Big Red — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 01:09:25 GMT

TO KAREN IN TEXAS: Re your 29 Apr 2009 7:52 PM post, no need to apologize. As we discussed before, the slowness of this particular board format makes it difficult to carry on a more natural written conversation. You are just trying to share your opinions and info, like the rest of us, and I appreciate all of your posts, whether or not you agree with me on any given point. :)

re: Five Longshots to Consider

Melissa — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 01:04:20 GMT

I've been quiet all season, mainly because I just wanted to wait and see how the horses all developed.

I've decided to go with Friesan Fire! I just love the way he's progressed so far this year, and with the good reports about him right now, he's just the one I had to choose. Plus, he is just one gorgeous animal.

Best of luck to all of us, and all of the horses and their connections. Here's to a safe and happy Derby Day!

re: Five Longshots to Consider

the_wiz — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 00:14:05 GMT

Boy bushwacker that was funny. I have to add that draynay is right about Dunkirk's interior fractions though. They appear to stand out above the others. I do agree with you though that draynay was insistant that no horse sired by unbridleds song could ever win a Derby. He does change his mind after making some outrageous claims when it seems to suit him. That's why I don't put much stock in anything he says.

Back to Dunkirk. I give him a shot here but he's not alone. He's run faster perhaps because he had to. Without a 2nd place or better in the Fla. Derby all hopes were gone for a Derby start. He was primed for a big race that day and up against not only Quality Road but Theregoesjojo who had put up a nice 100+ Beyer fig in his previous. It appeared to his connections that he needed a very fast race to get at least second so he was forced to run those fractions to keep up. In other words he had to. Remember how tired he was when the race was over? If he tires like that after a little over a mile again forget it. Different track, different situation, all things are not equal here. A horse like Friesan Fire for instance was brought up to this race in a very orchestrated manner by one of the best in the game. I don't think we have seen his best yet. He's capable of going faster. I give him a big shot to win. If I Want Revenge hasn't peaked too early he'll be more than a handful. Desert Party has been compromised by his post draw. This is not 2008 where it was an inherant advantage to draw post 20. Unlike last year there are more runners even with the defections this week. Desert Party doesn't have the turn of foot to clear the others. He'll be stuck wide or have to lay back and fall too far behind in order to save ground. I liked him until the draw. Baffert is high on Pioneer Of The Nile but I look at his works and they don't seem to fit Baffert's normal pattern. He always seems to work them fast and you are likely to see a bullet before a big race like this. Pioneer Of The Niles works have been good but not up to the standards I'm used to seeing from a Baffert horse. Makes me qusetion him. I'm going to say Hold Me Back and Chocolate Candy are my top choices to crack the exotics.

Best of luck to all you with the courage to put your money where your mouth is. I'll spread mine out and see what happens. After all I'm a gambler and a gambler never puts all his eggs in one basket. Last year I played Big Brown on top only, nowhere else and just in case he faltered I was covered. Sure it cost me a couple of dollars but when I hit the Super once and the Tri multiple times it mattered none. Sometimes it's harder to handicap the second thru fourth place finishers than it is to handicap the winner. Last year turned out to be one of them. There was no huge challenge to pick the winner in a field so weak, it was picking those to finish on the board behind him that stumped most people.

re: Five Longshots to Consider

Draynay — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 00:00:59 GMT

MonicaV you are 100% right. I am sharing with you my angles and what is leading me to my top choice. I am putting the Beyer, splits, and final times together with the visuals to come to a conclusion. His 6f split and mile split in the Florida Derby were MUCH faster than any other horse in the Derby at the distance. His Maiden race was a large field and he got stuck behind a wall of horses while waiting he finally found some room and swung out wide and blew by the field. His next race made headlines because of his very wide first turn and his Florida Derby speaks for itself and with his final time and Beyer. The thing to understand is this MonicaV... any move forward by this horse puts him out of reach. If you want to believe his 4th race will only be AS GOOD as his 3rd he is still out of reach unless a few others improve greatly. I like my odds. Good luck.

re: Five Longshots to Consider

Ranagulzion — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 23:59:47 GMT

SITTING BULL: Mine that bird you've been having for supper...turns visions into nightmares. Here's a prediction for you, Friesan Fire is going to blow your psychic fuse on Saturday. After that no more bull. Okay?

re: Five Longshots to Consider

Karen in Texas — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 23:52:57 GMT

Big Red---Actually I can't speak for G and G. I'm sorry. Perhaps you could go back and reread their posts at 2:14 P.M. and 3:02 A.M. today. Again, I'm sorry.

That a couple of the owners have opened their medication logs for inspection is a step in the right direction. Thanks for calling that to our attention.

re: Five Longshots to Consider

Wanda — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 23:51:24 GMT

For Big Red interesting article but for one comment.They talk about how the "lower levels" have less chances to start. Quite the reverse as bottom claiming races are written on average every day in the condition book. NW/Y,NW/2 etc. You could run them every week except for running or entry dates depending on the track.

re: Five Longshots to Consider

Curlin — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 23:28:06 GMT

Dray, here we go again with you just wanting to look at raw times without taking anything else into consideration. It's an absolute joke. Someone has previously mentioned it, but if you really want to see how raw times transfer, simply look at the Withers last weekend. Based on raw times and speed figures, This Ones For Phil should have easily beaten Mr. Fantasy by 8-10 lengths. Well, obviously that didn't happen so just going off raw times is a huge mistake. Go ahead and pick Dunkirk to win. If he does win, nobody will give you credit, it's that simple. You can boast that you had the winner and told everybody, but you're only allowed so many mulligans. If Dunkirk finishes up the track would you be willing to concede that maybe the FL Derby was a negative key race and not what you thought it was? Throw enough darts at the board and eventually one can hit a bullseye.

re: Five Longshots to Consider

Monica V — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 22:28:37 GMT

Draynay,

I still think you are putting too much into the times. Those times you keep quoting were done at different tracks. That doesn't mean the horse will run that same time at CD or even come close. I think it comes down to the ability of the horse to handle a rough trip, handling the huge crowd and having to split horses to get position unless they get a dream trip and some do. the KD isn't like any other race because of the size of the field. It's hard to guess the outcome when a horse has never run with that many and never will again. So many factors and so many variables. This looks to be a hell of race and I'm excited to see who does it.

re: Five Longshots to Consider

Karen in Texas — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 22:15:06 GMT

Big Red---All I'm saying is that 1:49.91 minus 1:12.30 is not 38.01 as you stated in your 12:24 P.M. post. It is 37.61. Both Gunbow and Geronimo took it a step further, saying that MM's individual time could be adjusted to 37.01.

re: Five Longshots to Consider

For Big Red — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 22:05:15 GMT

ALL: Only the owners of Win Willy (now withdrawn), Friesan Fire and Papa Clem opened their horses' full medication histories for this New York Times article: www.nytimes.com/.../30racing.html

The records show that Friesan Fire has "received nothing but vitamins and electrolytes since arriving in Kentucky from Louisiana, though he has been treated by a chiropractor."

If there was any justice in this world, Friesan Fire and Papa Clem would finish 1-2 in the Derby.