Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections

Pedigree Shelly — Thu, 07 May 2009 21:28:23 GMT

I think the derby would have had a different outcome if IWR QR and Old Fashioned plus Square Eddie would have ran in the Derby!!

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections

Daisy — Tue, 05 May 2009 23:37:24 GMT

I think jockeys get so paranoid of getting boxed in on the rail in a 19-horse field that they automatically look to the outside for running room. And Borel is smart enough to capitalize on their paranoia, over and over again. What I can't believe is that none of the inside horses chose to follow MTB when he flew up the rail past them.

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections

Greg J. — Tue, 05 May 2009 15:18:45 GMT

Draynay,

I actually agree with you on the Track Bias(Rail), and Bo-Rail...You would have thought that the other Jockey's might have realized the speed on the rail in Friday's and Saturday's races and tried to take advantage of it...

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections

david — Sun, 03 May 2009 14:53:20 GMT

How about Mine That Bird having Raise a Native on top of sire line and the dam's sire line? That's a first. I think only Barbaro had RAN on top of dam's sire line.

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections

draynay — Sun, 03 May 2009 14:34:56 GMT

I am told time doesn't matter... but of all the horses in the race the winner had the fastest 6f time at 1 1/8th. The freak race combined many things to bring about such a result. Pioneer of the Nile showed us once and for all how important foundation really is when 3 year old horses run in the Derby. But Borel combined his racing style with the track bias for the day and got a break being pinched back and saving the speed horse from running with the cheap speed. Check out the fractions Mine that Bird ran in his last race and you will see what I mean. POTN and MM got there like I thought they would but who would have thought Borel would be allowed AGAIN to run free on the rail .... unreal.

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections

GunBow — Sun, 03 May 2009 10:52:53 GMT

Hard not to think that Quality Road would have been just infront of Pioneer on the backstretch, moved a little sooner than that one, opened up a lead and then been near Mine That Bird at the wire, if not infront of him. Who knows about I Want Revenge. I think he could have won by 3, or, conversely, been bumped around like almost every other horse in the race, spun his wheels in the slop, and then spit the bit.

Even if Quality Road and IWR don't make the Preakness, there will be alot of questions to be answered. Almost every starter faced some trouble, and all have the slop to blame (although we cannot know for certain which horses were negatively affected by it, and which horses just simply ran poorly).

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections

GunBow — Sun, 03 May 2009 10:44:56 GMT

Big props to Einstein. Grade 1 win # 5. He's won grade 1 races on turf and synthetic, won a grade 2 on dirt, and ran 2nd and 3rd in grade 1 dirt races.

Cowboy Cal was also game, but he was up against Einstein.

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections

GunBow — Sun, 03 May 2009 10:42:37 GMT

Looking at Cannonero's pps again, maybe you can say he was as improbable as Mine That Bird. Cannonero went from a 3rd in a $3,500 Venezuelan allowance (although against older horses) to winning the Kentucky Derby. He was part of the mutual field so we will never know what his true odds were.

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections

GunBow — Sun, 03 May 2009 08:47:32 GMT

Let's see, here are Mine That Bird's credentials going in-

Class: Ran 2nd and 4th in non-graded New Mexico stakes this year. No horse had ever won the Derby via Sunland or any other track in New Mexico(I believe). The horses that beat him in N.M. were allowance horses in SoCal, led by Kelly Leak (a horse I saw at Santa Anita's opening week) and Scorewithcarter. MTB was 12th and last in his 2 year old finale, the Breeders Cup Juvenile, his only grade 1 race prior to the Derby.

Speed: He had the lowest Beyer figures in the field. His career best was a 81. I wonder if Andy Beyer is going to review and revise his Sunland figs? Since Beyers have been published in 1991, only two horses had won the Derby without having run a figure of 100 or higher, but at least Sea Hero had a 99 and Giacomo a 98. We're talking 81 here. That put Mine That Bird about 10 lengths behind Giacomo!

Breeding: Birdstone is turning into a nice sire and all, but Mine That Bird had the Highest Dosage Index in the field at 5.40. The lowest Beyers and the highest Dosage!

Surface History: Mine That Bird had not won a race on dirt. His only victories had come on Woodbine's synthetic surface.

Trainer: Mine That Bird's trainer Bennie Woolley is a virtual unknown nationally, and was a Derby rookie. Woolley had only had MTB since the beginning of this year.

Auction History: He was purchased for a paltry $9,500 as a yearling.

Sex: Mine That Bird is a gelding. Previously, only 8 geldings had won the Derby, but Funny Cide in 2003 had been the first to do it in almost 75 years, since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.

Layoff: Mine That Bird entered the Derby off a 5 week layoff. Recently, Big Brown and Barbaro had won the Derby off just such a layoff, so it probably doesn't hold that much significance anymore. Still, prior to Barbaro, one had to go all the way back to Needles in 55' to find a horse that won the Derby off a 5 week layoff.

Works: Mine That Bird only worked once at Churchill, Monday April 27th. He worked 5 furlongs in 1:02, which ranked 19th of 26. So, no bullet work.

2 year old foundation: Here we have some positives, finally! He started 6 times as a juvenile, and won 4.

2 year old back-class: Mine That Bird had won a graded stakes prior to the Derby. It was only a grade 3, and in Canada. However, the race, the Grey Stakes, is traditionally Canada's top open (not just Canadian breds) juvenile race, and had already produced one Kentucky Derby winner before, Sunny's Halo (won the Grey in 82', Derby in 83'). Yet, as mentioned, Mine That Bird had run last in his only US start, the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita.

Jockey: Probably the best thing Mine That Bird had going for him was his jockey, Calvin Borel. Borel had already won a Derby just 2 years ago with the late-running Street Sense, and is known for his mastery of Churchill, particularly the rail. He also has had a history of winning big Churchill stakes at huge odds, such as the 06' Stephen Foster on Seek Gold, yet another late runner. Combine Borel's knowledge of Churchill, his ability to navigate the rail, and his past success in winning big stakes at the track with late-runners, and you have the perfect jockey for Mine That Bird.

I suppose it all balances out.......not! Or, at least it shouldn't have had if all this stuff we have been discussing the past 3 months means anything. I'm only half kidding, but this is just one crazy head-scratcher.

What makes it all the more absurd is that Mine That Bird won by 7. The race wasn't even close. However, the final time of 202 and 3 was fairly solid for what had been a slow, tiring track. The race did fall apart, given the fact no other horse was within 7 lengths of MTB at the finish, but horses like Pioneer of the Nile, Musket Man, and Papa Clem did not run terribly. I fully expect Mine That Bird's Beyer to be in the 103-108 range.

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections

GunBow — Sun, 03 May 2009 07:53:17 GMT

Giacomo was close to unimaginable, but this...this was into the realm of fiction. Compared to Mine That Bird, Giacomo came into the 05' Derby with a much more realistic shot, even though both went off at 50-1. In Giacomo's last Derby prep he ran in a grade 1 in California and was only beaten 2 lengths, and had pushed Lion Heart when beaten a length in a grade 1 juvenile race. Additionally, while Giacomo didnt have a Beyer of 100, he had run figs of 97,95,94. I think alot of people focused on how Giacomo was 4th, rather than the fact he only lost by 2 lengths in the SA Derby, and dismissed the Cali contingent that year, with even the SA Derby winner, Buzzard's Bay, a relative longshot. Frankly, the Derby bettors just underestimated the Cali horses, because those that came out of the Santa Anita Derby ran 1-4-5 in Kentucky (Giacomo, Dont Get Mad, Buzzrds Bay..note that Dont Get Mad won the Derby Trial between the SA + Kent Derbys).

Unlike Giacomo, Mine that Bird deserved to be 50-1; actually, I thought he should have been higher. Perhaps one of the reasons he wasnt higher is because the memory of Giacomo is still somewhat recent? In my opinion, the two upsets shouldnt be compared, yet that's all the general public is talking about "it's like Giacomo, both 50-1..". No, this was unlike any other Derby upset, save maybe Donerail, and I wasnt around for that. This was an upset of true historic significance. Donerail in 1913 is the record Derby longshot at 91-1, Mine That Bird and Giacomo are next, and then Gallahadion in 1940 at 35-1. Yet, I truly believe Mine That Bird should be seen as the undisputed #2, and the greatest in the Derby's modern history. I know this field fell apart, with what I believe to be the two best males of this crop not in the race (IWR,QR), but I still think few saw this coming. On top of everything, he won by the largest margin since Assault in 46'. Crazy, crazy, stuff.

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections

Daisy — Sun, 03 May 2009 02:54:37 GMT

It's Saturday night and the Derby is in the history books. I just reviewed all the posts on this blog, and not one person picked Mine That Bird to even hit the board. It just goes to show you that nothing is certain, longshots really do come in, and even the best handicappers can be wrong. I hope all the small breeders and owners take heart at Mine That Bird's victory. Score one for the little guy!

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections

Monica V — Sun, 03 May 2009 02:22:45 GMT

What happened today is exactly what I predicted. A huge upset and the best horse didn't win but he was the best horse today.

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections

For Big Red — Sun, 03 May 2009 00:45:14 GMT

ALL: Friesan Fire lost all chance at the start when Papa Clem came over sharply and body slammed him sideways into the horses on the inside. The Daily Racing Form is reporting that Friesan Fire was stepped on, which tore his left front quarter.

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections

Mike Relva — Sun, 03 May 2009 00:10:17 GMT

TO:JACASS

Great point,couldn't agree more! Just goes to show people that comes off as rude and thinking they know everything usually get it back in spades! lol

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections

Katsan — Sat, 02 May 2009 23:51:38 GMT

Well, I've not been on here in a long time, but I just had to come on and congratulate my neighbor Leonard and also Chip we had a few $ on the colt. Doesn't do well to make fun of anyone.

Leonard had a stallion that we bred to a couple times. He had some of the greatest QH sires in the world Go Man Go etc.

Like I've said on here a bunch of times, some pretty amazing horsemen (jockeys, owners and trainers) have made their way from New Mexico or through here.

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections

Householder — Sat, 02 May 2009 23:24:20 GMT

SITTING BULL WAS RIGHT AGAIN! HUGE DOUBLE DIGIT UPSET. "The Derby Winner will have first prepared on synthetics" (Householder). "Do not bet anything that has not first prepared on synthetics." (Householder).

Mine that Bird-Synthetics

Pioneer-Synthetics

Musket Man-Dirt

Papa Clem-Synthetics

Chocolate Candy-Synthetics

Summer Bird-Dirt.

I believe that POTN, Papa Clem, and CC are also from Cali.

I am glad that Andrew Beyer singled these horses out "I will bet agaist all of the synthetic specialists in Saturday's race."

"...none of the synthetic track specialists will finish close to him" [I Want Revenge].

With Mine that Bird's wopping 81 Beyer can we all say collectively that BEYERS were/are completely useless!!!

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections

Curlin — Sat, 02 May 2009 21:18:58 GMT

Alright, I've just looked over the Derby pps for the final time. I had some luck yesterday in the Oaks so I've got a little money to play with. I had a $50 straight exacta 6-3. I got back a little over $1000 so not too bad for a 1-5 favorite on top. We were sitting at the 1/8 pole and when I saw the Stone Legacy making a move for 2nd, I was yelling like a fool. Everyone around me was just looking like 'don't you see the 6 horse way up there?'. The race was over by the 1/4 pole so all I was hoping was to see the Stone Legacy get 2nd. I got my wish.

Anyway, in regards to the Derby, I think there will be a bit more speed than most of us think. I think they will go in 46 and change, not in the 47 range (most Derbys are run in the 46 range). With that, I've landed on Hold Me Back. He's 3rd off the layoff, which is an angle I like. He ran huge to win the Lane's End off the bench and regressed just a little in the Bluegrass, which is to be expected. He will improve 2nd time over dirt and he's seemed to really strive over the Churchill oval this week. It doesn't hurt that Desourmeaux is very confident, but then again, when isn't he. He won his maiden debut going 2 turns, which tells me the horse has natural stamina. He's seemed to make pretty good middle moves in his previous races, which the winner will need to do. I'll play HMB over FF, CC, Dunkirk, POTN & DP and run those horses again for 3rd. I'll run that combo with HMB in all 3 spots. A $75 bet and a ticket I obviously think has a real good chance at hitting. Good luck everyone.

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections

Debra B — Sat, 02 May 2009 20:17:45 GMT

Isn't Saratoga still a dirt track? All the experts keep saying that this horse has never run on dirt. My PP's say that he has run on it twice, and broke his maiden on it.........

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections

Mike Relva — Sat, 02 May 2009 18:34:04 GMT

TO GREG J

Good luck today! I like FF,if not then Gen. Q.

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections

Slew.em.All — Sat, 02 May 2009 18:00:30 GMT

lol jacass...well,if the name fits,so be it!!! I'm still alive!!!

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections

Householder — Sat, 02 May 2009 17:52:16 GMT

Move CC up on a wet track. POTN daddy liked off goings and his mother won at Churchill by 10. With the track coming up like it is, it is FF's to loose (which he will). No horse has ever won off a 7 week layoff...and he has never ran beyong 1 1 /16.

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections

Karen in Texas — Sat, 02 May 2009 17:11:39 GMT

GunBow---What's the matter with this breed? The equine geneticists and veterinarians are working on it with a boost from the completed equine genome map. Right now, I hope we're seeing the connections of these horses attempting to err on the side of caution, finally.

Know you're having a great day at Churchill!

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections

Manoa Tommy — Sat, 02 May 2009 16:38:40 GMT

Yo J,

You're a "Smart Guy" in the Philadelphia Inquirer today?

Like your picks - especially since you didn't have I Want Revenge before he got scratched. I like the 10.

Good luck to all.

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections

Mary — Sat, 02 May 2009 16:03:38 GMT

Friesan Fire, General Quartes, and Pioneerof The Nile. There is no doubt in my mind that FF will win. And Sandy, you are right, he has Seattle Slew and Secretariat running through his veins. FF's pedigree is beautiful; he may have Princequillo's large heart.

General Quarters will be right up there and POTN also has a good pedigree; but it doesn't compare with FF. I like all three of these horses.

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis and Selections

GunBow — Sat, 02 May 2009 15:13:32 GMT

I was actually wrong about Miss Isella having run a 100+ Beyer before. Her top was only a 88. I didnt have the drf in front of me when I wrote last night, and was thinking of the fig I saw in the program. Still think she ran 103-107.