Kentucky Derby Thoughts - One Day After

re: Kentucky Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Mike Relva — Sat, 09 May 2009 16:52:05 GMT

MIKEM:

It's not "hero worship"regarding Larry Jones. You're way off!

re: Kentucky Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Mike Relva — Sat, 09 May 2009 16:50:33 GMT

Draynay

MTB isn't a "mutt". He won the Derby and no one,including you and myself had him!

re: Kentucky Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Mike Relva — Sat, 09 May 2009 16:48:57 GMT

TO: GW_BUSHWACKER

If you met me you wouldn't be called me "little Mikey". You have the safety to sit at your computer and wail away on everyone. As regards to EDWARD,Jason also told him regarding his stupid remark about Larry Jones.

re: Kentucky Derby Thoughts - One Day After

gw_bushwacker — Fri, 08 May 2009 16:17:02 GMT

I gotta agree with draynay's statement that Mine That Bird will do as much for racing as Da Tara did. First of all Da Tara exposed big brown for what he was. Better than his extremely weak generation one day but unable to beat even a mere maiden the next. Mine That Bird may have do just the same, only time will tell.

re: Kentucky Derby Thoughts - One Day After

MATT H. — Fri, 08 May 2009 15:03:05 GMT

I like everyone else didn't see Mind that bird winning the derby way back in Febuary but looking at how it happened he is agood little horse that likes the mud. And that was the worst track i have seen in along time. And alot of people have been comparing him to other derby winners. LIke Streetsence like i heard one guy compaire him to Scratarious i don't think he is that good. But i do think right now he is a cinderalla story when we get to the Preakness in a week i would like nothing more then to see this horse get bet. Because he is not Triple Crown matterial but that just goes to show you that is horse racing and we have had two 50 to 1 in big races when mind that bird in the kentucky derby. It will be interseting to see who Calvin Boral chooses to ride. Don't get me wrong i like calvin i have delt with him before. I would be willing to bet this thought i over looked Mind that Bird like alot of people i felt cheated loosing the Kentucky derby to a 50 to 1 shot in the final one hundered yards. I have always liked Churchhill downs thats why i find this losse difficult like most people.

re: Kentucky Derby Thoughts - One Day After

gw_bushwacker — Thu, 07 May 2009 18:30:09 GMT

Months ago many believed RA was the best 3 yr old in the country so nay nay you aren't alone there. Quit trying to pump up your own ego. Jason "stopped" you from talking about her? Since when has anybody stopped you from running off at the mouth here? Here's another chance for you to change your mind on who is going to "blow away" everybody else in the next leg of the Triple Crown. Some thing never change do they?

re: Kentucky Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Greg J. — Thu, 07 May 2009 18:17:26 GMT

FYI,

Friesan Fire will be in the Preakness if he is 100 percent, Said his trainer, Larry Jones. Jones said that Friesan Fire returned to the track Thursday morning at Delaware Park. Jones said he intends to ship Friesan Fire to Pimlico on Monday and work him over the track on Tuesday.

If he is in the gate on next Saturday, Then there is no doubt he will be 100 percent ready and fit. I just hope his psyche wasn't messed up from the Derby.

re: Kentucky Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Julie L. — Thu, 07 May 2009 16:50:38 GMT

For Ann in Lexington - I found some information for you on Casual Lies who I really liked and I actually had a roundabout connection to the horse as a good friend of mine Dr. Leonard Larson DVM was a close friend of his trainer and when she was going to purchase Casual Lies asked him to take a look at the horse and give his opinion, he told her "this colt could win the Kentucky Derby." Not too bad an opinion as he did finish second. He stands at stud at Windsor Park Stud in New Zealand and is a very useful sire having produced 12 stakewinners 3 of them Gr.1, he appears to make the leading sire lists frequently. They have a really nice rundown on his offspring and a beautiful picture of him. Hope this helps.

re: Kentucky Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Greg J. — Thu, 07 May 2009 16:10:47 GMT

Dray,

I agree 100 percent, Rachel Alexandra is better then any three year old, Male or Female!, She is a complete Freak(In a great way!). So, Dray, Would you say she will take Big Drama, You think they are one, two, in the preakness?

re: Kentucky Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Karen in Texas — Thu, 07 May 2009 16:06:54 GMT

mz----The point is that MTB had been living/training at Sunland Park--elevation 3789ft. Louisville's elevation is 466ft. That the horse once lived in Toronto (elevation 249ft.) has virtually nothing to do with the present time. Think of having lots of RBC's/hgb. as the opposite of being anemic. Anemia causes fatigue, weakness, etc. The opposite would be strong, alert, etc.

re: Kentucky Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Greg J. — Thu, 07 May 2009 16:06:25 GMT

HELP...

Can Anyone find a Comment From "The Phantom" that shows any insight or knowledge on Horse Racing(Or the "Triple Crown", Which I believe is what Jason's Blog is all about), PLEASE !!!, I have been looking and looking, and it just seems that he is obsessed with me, lol.....

I might agree or disagree with some people here and vice-versa, BUT at least myself and other people form an opinion!, and offer there perspective and knowledge, Which I think a Blog is all about, It is a shame, "Phantom", Could you please enlighten me with what your opinion is on anything related to the Triple Crown?, Anything?, Like maybe who you might think will win the upcoming Preakness(Of the announced field so far)?, Maybe some opinion on Pedigree's?, Maybe some opinion on the Derby?, Maybe some opinion on the sale of R.A.?, Maybe some opinion on the state of Horse Racing in America?, Please , Something?, Anything?....

I am on pins and needles waiting for your expert opinion...

re: Kentucky Derby Thoughts - One Day After

draynay — Thu, 07 May 2009 15:24:51 GMT

Months ago I said Rachel Alexandra was the best 3 year old in the country and I was stopped from talking about her by JASON because she was not going to the Derby........WELL !!! SHE IS GOING TO THE PREAKNESS and we will now see who the REAL champion is. We had a horse that could have won the Triple Crown but now she will have to deal with winning the Preakness and Belmont. GO RACHEL !!!!!!!!

re: Kentucky Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Greg J. — Thu, 07 May 2009 15:22:24 GMT

RA to Preakness:

An official with the Maryland Jockey Club confirmed Wednesday that a representative from Jess Jackson's Stonestreet Stables contacted the Maryland Jockey Club regarding the possibility of running Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness.

Of course She will run in the Preakness, Why else would they have rushed the sale of her so quickly, The clock was ticking....

Still don't know what to feel about RA being sold, I feel terrible for Hal Wiggins, though, I guess Borel will probably ride her, and Mike Smith will be on Mine that Bird...

I will say this, a RA/CURLIN Offspring, Talk about a SUPER HORSE !!!

I Guess it is all about the Mighty Dollar...

re: Kentucky Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Greg J. — Thu, 07 May 2009 14:55:48 GMT

FYI,

Edgar Prado will be on Take the Points in Preakness. Prado rode Dunkirk in the Kentucky Derby, but Dunkirk is being pointed to the June 6 Belmont Stakes. Take the Points was ridden by Alex Solis in his last start, the Santa Anita Derby. Jockey Eibar Coa chose to ride Derby third-place finisher Musket Man over Big Drama for the Preakness, so John Velazquez will climb aboard Big Drama. That left Take the Points open for Prado. Take the Points has two wins in six career starts, both with Prado in the irons: a maiden victory last fall at Belmont Park, and an entry-level allowance at Gulfstream Park on January 31 which earned the colt a career-high 99 Beyer speed figure.

re: Kentucky Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Barrel Racer — Thu, 07 May 2009 14:53:53 GMT

I'm late getting this posted, but I love to see all of this dialogue about horse racing. I work at a high school and we have all talked about the race this week and I am the only one with a horse background! My point is that all of America may be talking about horse racing and they are excited about it - quite a change from last year after Eight Belles! Isn't that just as important? The American Dream being realized in a sad, difficult time in our country! In defense of Mine that Bird, he didn't just get up to win by a little - he blew them away. Hopefully, it is a great breakout race for a superstar and not just a one-time feat. Only time will tell. He was a sound, healthy, happy and energetic horse after the derby - that should symbolize what we want racing to be represent!

re: Kentucky Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Karen2 — Thu, 07 May 2009 14:49:51 GMT

Thanks Wanda. I was feeling my "oats" yesterday....don't really like to scrap with folks on the blogs but I got irritated. MTB and Calvin deserve all the accolades they are receiving.

RuRoh...... Rachel Alexendra.. Sold..probably going to be in the hands of Steve A..... hmmmmm... could she be pointed to the preakness to spoil the TC bid???

re: Kentucky Derby Thoughts - One Day After

mz — Thu, 07 May 2009 14:45:34 GMT

Sorry guys, just caught up with this blog.

About the elevation stuff: Woodbine is in Toronto. Toronto is about the same elevation as Chicago. Is there an elevation bias for a horse from Chicago running in Louisville?

(did that sound snarky? I'm sort of feeling snarky about all of the people in the various blogs complaining to the BloodHorse about not having advised them that MTB was champion 2YO in Canada last year. Fergawdssakes: there are good horses all over the world. The BloodHorse does keep up with them. Read about horses running in other countries than yours!)

re: Kentucky Derby Thoughts - One Day After

For Big Red — Thu, 07 May 2009 14:39:17 GMT

TO RACINGFAN: In your 06 May 2009 9:04 PM response to LONGWAYTOMAY you wrote, "The whole point was that it is sad to me that the horse can't get his due if people have to speculate that somebody cheated...Also, if a brand new fan watched the derby then read those types of comments they could be lost forever and that is NOT good for racing!"

With all due respect, I think you have it precisely backwards. The racing industry is responsible for its own tarnished reputation, not fans who are understandably distrustful of it. Whether or not the percentage of unethical owners and trainers is small or large, once the public's trust is lost, it's excruciatingly difficult to win it back.

Fans have justifiable reasons for their skepticism and distrust of this industry. Rather than trying to shut people like LONGWAYTOMAY up, the industry needs to pay close attention. Once upon a time, people with LONGWAYTOMAY's viewpoint were racing's lonesome "canaries in the coal mine." But the canaries are long since dead and what killed them is now eating away the heart, soul and sinew of the industry.

re: Kentucky Derby Thoughts - One Day After

The Phantom — Thu, 07 May 2009 12:49:28 GMT

Now its Rachel claims Mr Meow [Greg j], man you know everything and your capping is what people log onto this blog for I suppose. Why don't you quit your day job and become a pro handicapper?Everyone make sure you bet Rachel if she runs , we have been given the word, but a word of caution this is the guy who was 0-4 in the Derby-I wonder if he owns a Mac?

re: Kentucky Derby Thoughts - One Day After

draynot — Thu, 07 May 2009 12:06:10 GMT

Jess Jackson purchases Rachael Alexandra with the intention of breeding her to the great Curlin after her racing days are over. The Big Brown/Stardom Bound mating pales by light years to this anticipated coupling!!!!!!!

re: Kentucky Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Longshot Lou — Thu, 07 May 2009 07:12:38 GMT

If you didn't happen to see Andy Beyer's post-Derby article about the "Perfect Storm," it is a very, very interesting read. Here it is:

"After Mine That Bird won the Kentucky Derby, all reports of the race noted the 50-to-1 payoff was the second highest in the race's history. Even so, most casual fans probably did not appreciate the magnitude of this incomprehensible upset.

Because many people blindly bet on long shots in the Derby, even hopeless horses rarely go off at odds as high as 50-1. Mine That Bird deserved to be 200-1. (Indeed, customers of Betfair, the international gambling Web site, could have fetched odds of 220 to 1 in midweek. When wagering closed, the gelding was 139 to 1.) This was one of the biggest upsets in the history of American racing. In my four decades of covering the sport, it ranks as one of the two most mystifying results in a major stakes race, along with Canonero II's victory in the 1971 Derby.

For devotees of speed figures -- which usually have been a reliable gauge of Derby horses -- this result was especially hard to explain. Since the publication of the Beyer Speed Figures, the weakest horse to win the Derby was Giacomo, who had never earned a figure higher than 98 before he scored his 50-to-1 upset in 2005. Yet Giacomo looked like a superhorse compared to Mine That Bird, whose lifetime figure was the 81 he recorded while losing an obscure stakes race in New Mexico. His figure of 105 in the Derby represented a 17-length improvement. How did it happen? I put that question yesterday to a few of the people whose opinions I respect the most: professional handicappers Maury Wolff and Paul Cornman, New York Racing Association TV analyst Andy Serling, and ESPN commentator Randy Moss. With their help, I have tried to fashion an explanation for Saturday's events.

It's not a simple explanation, but as Moss said, "What happened was a perfect storm of situations that added up to give you a wacky result."

These were the elements of the perfect storm:

--The Derby field was weak and the best horses delivered poor performances on the sloppy track.

--Racing on or near the rail was an advantage at Churchill Downs on Saturday, and jockey Calvin Borel took advantage of the conditions by keeping Mine That Bird on the rail.

--Mine That Bird obviously relished the sloppy track, and he evidently possessed more talent than his past performances indicated.

The two outstanding members of the 3-year-old crop, I Want Revenge and Quality Road, had been knocked out of the Derby by injuries; I Want Revenge was scratched the morning of the race. In their absence, nobody possessed rock-solid credentials.

Even in a normal year, few horses deliver peak performances in the Derby -- it's an extraordinarily difficult and stressful race. Over a sloppy track, even fewer horses fire their best shots. On Saturday, Friesan Fire, the favorite, barely picked up his feet and lost by more than 40 lengths. Dunkirk, the second choice, lost by more than 20. Almost nobody besides the winner ran well. If Mine That Bird hadn't been in the field, the winning speed figure for the Derby would have been 95 -- by far the lowest ever for a Triple Crown event.

Besides having trouble with the sloppy track, many of the horses in the Derby were compromised by the bias of the Churchill racing strip. Most of the winners Saturday spent all or part of their journeys near the rail, and nobody won circling the field. This was no secret: ESPN's commentators were talking about the bias all afternoon and asking the jockeys about it. But few of the riders in the Derby tried to take advantage of the rail, except for Borel, whose propensities have earned the nickname 'Bo-Rail.' His performance was almost a duplicate of his rail-skipping ride aboard Street Sense in the 2007 Derby. Wolff observed, "With any other rider, Mine That Bird doesn't get that trip."

The bias wasn't so strong that it was propelling bad horses to victory. There hadn't been any absurd results on the Churchill card before the Derby. In the Derby, jockey Kent Desormeaux also stayed on the rail with his mount, Hold Me Back, and he made a strong move on the turn before his mount faltered badly. So the winner needed some talent to take advantage of his ground-saving trip.

Presumably Mine That Bird improved because he relished the sloppy track -- something no handicapper could have anticipated before the race.. But the gelding may have been a better horse than he looked on paper. After the Derby, I reviewed the films of his previous races. In both of his starts this spring at New Mexico's Sunland Park, his jockey made ill-judged, premature moves to vie for the lead. In both races he fought tenaciously before fading in the stretch. I would imagine some handicappers in New Mexico were eagerly waiting to bet him the next time he ran. However, no rational handicapper could have considered these trips a harbinger for a victory in the Kentucky Derby.

Mine That Bird's win will be popularly regarded as the result of a once-in-a-lifetime perfect storm. Probably this opinion is correct; probably the gelding will never win another major race. However, I can remember that the other utterly implausible Derby winner, Canonero II, was regarded the same way. Two weeks later he won the Preakness and forced all of the doubters to revise their opinion that the Derby was a fluke."

re: Kentucky Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Paula Higgins — Thu, 07 May 2009 01:10:26 GMT

MTB won convincingly. Whatever he does from now on is gravy. No one can ever take this win away from him. Whether high altitude training ramped up his HGB or not wasn't the decisive factor in this race, even if it was a help. This horse was moving on that day and he beat at least one very good horse, POTN. If all "Mutts' run like, this we need more "Mutts" in horse racing.

re: Kentucky Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Racingfan — Thu, 07 May 2009 01:04:10 GMT

Longwaytomay: WOW! That was a defensive answer! How is it that you come by your definitive information? I did not say there is no cheating in racing. I'm sure there is-just as there are lawbreakers and there will always be. I also agree it needs to be dealt with strongly! I however choose to believe that it is not the majority and I don't believe anyone would be dumb enough to try it in the derby. The whole point was that it is sad to me that the horse can't get his due if people have to speculate that somebody cheated. If you were the connections, how would you feel about that? Also, if a brand new fan watched the derby then read those types of comments they could be lost forever and that is NOT good for racing!

re: Kentucky Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Householder — Wed, 06 May 2009 23:53:54 GMT

How about the other little horse that could. Musket Man...Yonaguska stands for $4,000. I kind of like the Cherokee Run influence for the Preakness as I think that speedy one finished second to Pra- Bayou?. If your willing to toss MTB, you could go POTN, MM, Papa Clem, right back.

re: Kentucky Derby Thoughts - One Day After

Wanda — Wed, 06 May 2009 23:37:22 GMT

Karen2: Just read your post 06-05-5:15PM. To funny you go girl you made my day!