Belmont Thoughts - One Day After

re: Belmont Thoughts - One Day After

Eliza — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 19:43:27 GMT

I picked Da'Tara to win. :D Call me crazy, but I just liked him, ever since that 4th on Preakness Day. I picked him to win then, too.

re: Belmont Thoughts - One Day After

toxicologist — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 15:31:34 GMT

Now Asmussen has been slapped with ANOTHER positive! Just another example of how trainers will CONTINUE to use drugs no matter how many positives they come up with. What are we waiting for, another equine disaster on national TV before we clean it up? It is totally out of hand and destroying the perception of the industry. WISE UP!

re: Belmont Thoughts - One Day After

toxicologist — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 19:42:24 GMT

Why should ANY drugs be allowed to give an athlete or horse a "competitive" edge or help? This is a betting sport and any drug used to give a horse a "competitive edge" should be equal to fixing the outcome of a race; which is a felony and a trainer deliberately giving "competitve edge" drugs should be held accountable and prosecuted as such. Dutrow just got slapped with another positive AGAIN today! He is just another example of how trainers will use and do anything to get the money at the expense of the horse! Has any trainer ever learned anything from their suspensions? No, they just get more creative with their mixtures and do it again hoping to beat the system!!! All the while, the horse is the victim! If we had a 3 strikes you're out rule you might get their attention because the current rulings are just slaps on the wrist. These horses are not asking for drugs, it is the trainer's decision to give the drugs. It has got to stop! It is time to ban ALL drugs if you want to clean up the sport as some drugs (like Lasix) can mask the use of other drugs; giving you another "competitive edge". The way the system is now, it encourages ALL trainers to use "something" to "help" their horse because EVERYBODY else is using something. To make it a level playing field: NO DRUGS, NO EXCEPTIONS. It takes any and all of the guess work out of trying to determine what should be "racing levels" and what can/can't be used at this track and that track. Make all the tracks adhere to the same policy. It is a CLEAN and SIMPLE solution and most of all it is in the BEST interest of the HORSE which afterall is what this industry is supposed to be about.

re: Belmont Thoughts - One Day After

Householder — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 05:53:23 GMT

The Breeder's Cup Classic in October should be interesting for Big Brown. If Dutrow was smart he would ship him to the Oak Tree meet and get a few graded stakes at Santa Anita into him before the big dance.

re: Belmont Thoughts - One Day After

draynot — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 20:05:23 GMT

Karen,

A 19.08 final 3/16ths is nothing special. In fact Curlin, Bernadini, Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones, Point Given, Red Bullet, Real Quiet, Louis Quatorze, Timber Country, and Pine Bluff to name most of the recent Preakness winners all ran faster than that in their final 3/16ths. Certainly Bernadini, Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones,Red Bullet, and Louis Quatorze who won by large margins were throttled down just like the Big Ole Browneye was in the stretch.

To make a point: I have not said that Brownie has not accomplished anything in his short little life. What I do maintain is that he didn't accomplish his victories against quality competition. It's easy to beat up on nothings. Some of those nothings have won big races but in each case one of them had to win. The competition so far has been very limited. His weak rivals have aided in his ability to stretch his pedigree.

I have however enjoyed watching his races, even though I would have enjoyed them if he wasn't running. Makes no difference to me. Someone else would have had to win and then we would be anylizing how weak their competition was.

re: Belmont Thoughts - One Day After

Karen — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 03:26:57 GMT

Draynot: I misspoke. I meant BB's final three sixteenth was run in 19:08 which I believe was stated by Steve Haskin that ranks amoung the fastest closing fractions in Preakness history. In a strong head wind and under a hand ride and being eased at the wire. Sorry, it wasn't Draynay who made that up. Plus you keep conviently over looking BB's Derby run. Not sure why you are so sure BB didn't accomplish anything in his short little life, but the proof is in the numbers. I never said BB is one of the greats, but he isn't a turtle either. He has been exciting to watch and he is a very talented race horse. His mistakes have come by the way of his people.

FYI: I don't bet. I certainly am not making 70K by betting on horses, thank the good lord. Can you imagine what happens on the days you don't make that much?? The wiz may brag about a good bet placed here and there but lets face the facts..... someone making that kindof money is spending huge amounts of money and frankly, in my humble opinion, is losing quite a lot. Perhaps a slight gambling problem but that is just a speculation. My kids need to eat.

re: Belmont Thoughts - One Day After

draynot — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 12:21:20 GMT

Karen, Karen, Karen,

You must have borrowed Draynay's calculator. BB's Preakness Last Quarter in 19:08? You been reading too much of his drivel and he has you brainwashed.

The Big Ole Browneye's splits were 1:10.6 (3/4's), 1:35.6 (mile), and 1:54.8 (1 3/16 mile).

Let's see here, 1:54.8 minus 1:35.6 = 19.2 and that's for the last 3/16ths!! Last time I checked 3/16ths wasn't a quarter mile. 19.2 divided by 3 = 6.4. Then 6.4 times 4 = 25.6 final quarter. That's mediocre. He wasn't under wraps for the entire last quarter, maybe the last 1/16th and you don't throttle down a powerfull animal too quickly anyway. That's the way to injure them in a hurry.

His 1/4 split between the 3/4 and mile when he was running was 25.0

1:35.6 minus 1:10.6 = 25.0. Not exactally spectacular either. His non-competition made his race look much better than it really was.

This is a good example of how handicappers like "the wiz" make a killing. The common folks either do their calculations wrong or rely on others opinions or mistakes to make their decision.

re: Belmont Thoughts - One Day After

Karen — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 03:37:49 GMT

Wow, the wiz: you must have a crystal ball. I bet you don't have a day job.

Draynot: I believe BB finished his last quarter in the Preakness in 19:08 under a hand ride and with gas left in the tank. Please keep in mind according to Ragozin and Thoro-graph, he posted the fastest time ever. Why must I keep defending BB? Because people seem to be blind to his accomplishements.

re: Belmont Thoughts - One Day After

the wiz — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 12:29:36 GMT

Belmont Thoughts (Big Brown's Flop):

Big Brown has proven more than a useful tool for me. Between the Derby and Preakness his victory's helped net me over 70K. By betting against him in the Belmont I added another 50K from the superfectas by keying Anak Nakal and Ready's Echo in the 2-4 slots. Big Brown became another Giacomo for me as I made a small fortune betting against him over time after his Derby win was hand delivered by way of a sizzling pace duel.

That's what I love about horseracing, if you know what you are doing (and with a little luck sometimes) you can out wit the minions and make some great "chump change".

To me it's a business. Kinda like the stock market, let everyone else worry about how they run their part and cash in on the results. If you don't get emotionally attached you don't make dumb mistakes and don't set yourself up for a big letdown. Never always right but the good far outweighs the bad.

Change the rules, change the game, good handicappers will adjust. Afterall, they are the ones that keep this sport alive. Without them and the money they pour into tracks across the world horseracing as we know it would die. Money talks.

re: Belmont Thoughts - One Day After

wyomingwind — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 03:31:08 GMT

Think it is great about the J.Club Safety committee to have put out recommendations. Hope they will be followed. Also added to the list of recommendations should be a couple for breeders: look for horses which race for at least 4 years, and retire sound. Should also be a rule about full disclosure regarding all breeding stallions and mares as to any corrective surgery done on legs as weanling/yearling (non INJURY ).

Leave it up to the breeders/owners to pay attention to such, and breed accordingly. Though some foal deformities may be just from such long legs being wrapped in a ball for so long, so may some be inherited, and/or may affect future soundness and performance. Certainly many leg defects run in certain bloodlines..... Seems like we are seeing some very light boned horses nowadays.

re: Belmont Thoughts - One Day After

Monica V — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 21:16:04 GMT

Just saw what the Jockey Club safety committee is recommending for horse racing and I think it's about time. Good for them! The only problem is how to police it and how do you stop cheaters? It certainly is a move in the right direction for the horses safety and health.

re: Belmont Thoughts - One Day After

draynot — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 18:59:29 GMT

Draynay, upon further review:

Barcola who Curlin whipped in the Foster ran his last quarter in 24.7 and Einstein who you refer to as only a turf horse ran his final quarter in 24.0. In comparison the Big Ole Browneye has NEVER finished the last quarter in a race at 1 1/8 or longer in less than 25.2!! Keep lying to yourself if it makes you feel better. The fact is Big Browneye hasn't proven he can finish anywhere near that fast.

I repeat once again, in races written for 3 yr olds only SOMEONE has to win. Just because it is a graded stakes doesn't automatically mean the cometition is of good graded quality. Up to this point this is a horribly weak group of 3 yr olds. Maybe with age some of them will improve and actually be competitive against some of the lesser graded older horses. As it stands today none of them including the Big Ole Browneye has proven they are capable of winning against quality older horses.

Duck Duck Dutrow as I saw him so eloquently referred to previously will continue to avoid Curlin like the plague unless or until Brownie does some serious improving.

re: Belmont Thoughts - One Day After

Karen — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 17:02:11 GMT

You said a mouth full Ranagulzion! Great post.

re: Belmont Thoughts - One Day After

Marc W — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 15:47:56 GMT

WHILE LOOKING AT THE BELMONT RACE DAY FORM-it was there in black and white------------

ONE LAST POST

All of you that jumped on the Haskin, Billy Turner articles/posts about training for the Belmont.

Zito trained DaTara one slow 49 3/5 4F work between the Barbaro-Preakness Day Undercard (1 1/16 mile race-he also started in the Derby Trial) and the Belmont- AND HE WON!!!!!!!!

Big difference between stated brilliant after race theories and facts.

I guess Zito-according to those "who know" "was wrong as well" HA! HA! and his horse should have trained more and harder for the Belmont?????

WITH THE FACTS IN FRONT OF THEM---Surprising how arm chair trainers know so much without ever even hot-walked a horse, let alone trained, to tell a 30% winning trainer how to do it.

PS -Although I respect what Billy Turner did-he is about a 7% trainer in the modern era and really hasn't had a stakes quality horse since Czaravich---a long long time ago. It is 2008!

Write to Nick Zito and tell him how to train a classic horse as well as Dutrow. They were of like-mind for conditioning to the Belmont! One was right and one was wrong according to armchair experts???

JUST THE FACTS-TO QUOTE JOE FRIDAY

re: Belmont Thoughts - One Day After

Monica V — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 15:12:30 GMT

Had BB finished at least 3rd in the Belmont he would have been retired immediatately. Now I think they will have to race him to redeem himself. Looks like there will only be two more races if that's the case.