I'm a Sucker for the Future (Wager)

re: I'm a Sucker for the Future (Wager)

CountFleet 43 — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 19:26:34 GMT

I'm watching the "Mystery Horse" from Peru named TOMCITO.We may not know a lot about racing in Peru, but as a 2 year old, he did win against 3 & 4 year olds at 1 1/4 & 1 1/2 mile in the 2nd & 3rd leg of the Peruian Triple Crown. Not bad for a 2 yr old and he showed a great late kick. What impresses me is that his works here at the training center & his 5 f work at Gulfstream were impressive. He should work 4 Furlongs or so, tomorrow. If he comes up short in the 1 1/16 Florida Derby, he think he will run BIG in the Kentucky Derby & for sure in the 1 1/2 mile Belmont Stakes....

re: I'm a Sucker for the Future (Wager)

draynay — Mon, 17 Mar 2008 15:03:49 GMT

Smittytoo... its not who he beat its how he beat them. He rated behind a very strong 45.3 half mile and then opened up IN HAND to run a very easy 1:35 mile first time ever on dirt and first race as a 3 year old. Name another horse that EVER did that...I can't! That time is faster than War Pass's time in the Champagne !

re: I'm a Sucker for the Future (Wager)

Smittytoo — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 21:30:17 GMT

I thought War Pass would win yesterday, but didn`t have him in my top ten for derby day. Supposedly, he had a fever earlier in the week. If so, Zito should have scratched him. He looks like he didn`t like the dirt in his face and wants to be on the front end. As for Big Brown, he beat absolutely nothing in his last off the turf romp. He must have some health problems judging by his race patterns. I`m leaning towards the Peruvian horse (via Kentucky) who beat older horses as a 2yo going a mile and a half. Not sure what he beat down there and he`ll be up against the Gulfstream speed bias in the Fla. Derby.

re: I'm a Sucker for the Future (Wager)

draynay — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 15:51:21 GMT

War Pass money is down the toilet.

When headed this horse appears to be a coward. Yes he was pinched back but so was Tale of Ekati in his first race as a 3 year old but he still finished strong. Did anyone ask what was wrong with him ? Or mention how he was squeezed at the start ? Quit making excuses, the horse folds when headed ... look for Tale to bounce back strong and be ready for the Derby. PS.... Big Brown wins by 6 in FD.

re: I'm a Sucker for the Future (Wager)

Matthew Wohlken — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 12:19:47 GMT

The derby is rarely won on the lead, so War Pass just isn't a great bet....a horse like, say Georgie Boy, gr I winner at two---can be brought around slowly---he had extra time to fill out because he won Dmr Futurity in early Sept....now, fresh, (yesterday a bit rank) he has that look of quality.....from a little (but not much) off the pace....not sure of his breeding for 1 1/4, but the value was there......

re: I'm a Sucker for the Future (Wager)

Pat O'D — Thu, 13 Mar 2008 01:10:47 GMT

I took two horses in pool 2, Denis of Cork at 12 -1, and the one I took late was Cool Coal Man, which was surprising to me that he finished at over 26 - 1 when his opening line was 10 - 1. He is most definitely bred to go the distance. And the horse that finished behind him in the FOY, I will save for the longer Belmont.

re: I'm a Sucker for the Future (Wager)

Jack — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 12:52:10 GMT

I guess I'm lucky because I live near TJ where I bet the Derby Future Book each year. I usually don't play the single bets but play the fields because you get 60 horses or more for the price of one.

There's never a sure thing but it makes the 10 weeks leading up to the Derby fun.

I'm excited about field 2 at 50-1 which included Big Brown, Denis of Cork, Elysium Fields, plus 57 others.

Another nice TJ wager that pays huge odds is the Place Triple Crown where your horse has to finish first or second in all three races. I was fortunate to hit with Smarty Jones and Victory Gallop and very close with Funny Cide and War Emblem before losing the Belmont.

BTW: The Place Triple Crown odds on Field B were 150-1.

I think the thing I like best about playing the future bet is that I don't lose my money immediately!!!

re: I'm a Sucker for the Future (Wager)

sirbarton — Mon, 10 Mar 2008 17:23:50 GMT

Big odds on Monba after pool two. This is more what I was looking for. He is definitely worth a risk at 35-1. Having said that, I must confess that I'm becoming a little concerned as to whether there will be any early speed to test War Pass early in the Derby. I don't really see any at this point, and I'm wondering if we're about to see another War Emblem gate-to-wire number on the first Saturday in May. Granted, he still has to prove that he can carry that speed for 9F, let alone 10, but if he can--uh-oh.

re: I'm a Sucker for the Future (Wager)

wilson — Sat, 08 Mar 2008 15:05:35 GMT

I had Giacomo at 25-1 in pool 2 in 2005 as my first ever future wager bet, and if I hadn't locked onto him then I might not have doubled down after Buzzard's Bay beat him in the SA Derby or on Kentucky Derby day either...Then I bet Half Ours at 33-1 the next year and he never ran another step that year...last year I bet Stormello at 47-1 or something like that and he was all used up in the preps. So, all in all, it is worthwhile and this year I have Z Fortune covered in a significant way, with a little already lost on Crown of Thorns and even less riding on Cowboy Cal.

re: I'm a Sucker for the Future (Wager)

Smittytoo — Mon, 03 Mar 2008 17:34:09 GMT

I got tired of my future bets not even running on Derby day that I quit playing it. With a large field every year there`s more than enough opportunities to make a big payoff with a dollar tri or super.

re: I'm a Sucker for the Future (Wager)

Pauly Horses — Thu, 28 Feb 2008 22:25:31 GMT

Tale of Ekati at 33-1. Tagg has done it before.

re: I'm a Sucker for the Future (Wager)

jshandler — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 23:03:46 GMT

Hate to burst your bubble Khaw, but Crown of Thorns is off the Derby trail.

re: I'm a Sucker for the Future (Wager)

khaw — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 22:48:55 GMT

CROWN OF THORNS IS THE HORSE TO BEAT EVERYONE MUST REPENT ON DERBY DAY IF THEY DON'T BET ON THIS GODLIKE ROCK OF A HORSE. GOD BLESS CROWN OF THORNS!!!!

re: I'm a Sucker for the Future (Wager)

Brs? — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 14:32:27 GMT

Gambling is gambling - there is no way around it. Even if you categorize the Future Wager as a sucker bet, the risk versus the reward makes it all worthwhile. Playing the lottery with a "Quick Pick" is more of a sucker bet than this. At least you have something tangible to work with. I would agree that the Round One of the Future wager is a sucker bet, but the Round Two and Three give you a better angle at choosing from a more established group. But as you stated, the odds you get don't usually compare to what you see on Derby Day. A conundrum indeed...

re: I'm a Sucker for the Future (Wager)

derbydave — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 08:27:34 GMT

I love the future wager too, although it is kind of a dumb bet. I did have Funny Cide, tho, so that alone will keep me coming back for years. This year took Colonel John, El Gato Malo, and Majestic Warrior, with a small bet on Georgie Boy too. Seems wide open to me with many slow times and War Pass with distance probs.