'Lookin at' the Derby Winner? Baffert Cautiously Optimistic

re: 'Lookin at' the Derby Winner? Baffert Cautiously Optimistic

Householder — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 00:56:10 GMT

Congratulations to Lookin at Lucky on picking up the 2 Year Old Eclipse award. I would like to see a CONVEYANCE, Looking at Lucky, American Lion, matchup soon.

re: 'Lookin at' the Derby Winner? Baffert Cautiously Optimistic

Slew — Tue, 19 Jan 2010 19:25:59 GMT

Triple Crown trail includes 3 races, and when you talk about AP Indy, might want to mention Bernardini and Rags to Riches. As far as Seattle Slew goes, it's darn hard today to find a decent competitior who doesn't trace his/her line back to the Slew...like California Flag and She Be Wild. Don't forget when you want to talk about 3 year olds, there are some fantastic fillies in the wings, not just colts.

re: 'Lookin at' the Derby Winner? Baffert Cautiously Optimistic

Fire Slam — Mon, 18 Jan 2010 17:10:05 GMT

Think Quality Road is a level or two below what his current connections think. I may be wrong, but thats why they run the races.

Your right Todd mismanaged the colts preparation, and failed to realize he had a filly for the ages.

This is why Todd wont win the Kentucky Derby any time soon. His stable is ran like a business/company. Get he best bred horses, run them in the top races, run a lot of them, and hope you score. Where is the training? He maintains the horses, instead of training or as DAVID CARROLL SAYS "TEACHING."

If the big trainers of today would take the time to teach horses, instead of "maintain" them, folks like Todd P. might actually win a KY Derby.

With that said, now that I am running my mouth, Todd P. will run 1-4 in the Derby. If he has four horses in the race, I will box those for the Superfecta!!! I will try to trick the racing gods.

Oaklawn Park today. Cecil Borel has one in. By Pulpit. They like him. Had some problems last out at Fairgrounds, and needed a race.

Price wont be anything, but he may be something to keep an eye on for the future.

re: 'Lookin at' the Derby Winner? Baffert Cautiously Optimistic

Ranagulzion — Mon, 18 Jan 2010 07:32:38 GMT

Fire Slam,

I believe you are mistaken about Dunkirk being his best Derby shot so far. Dunkirk was supposed to be his silver bullet last year but turned out to be a blank shot because he needed a rabbit to help him out. Circular Quay and Rags To Riches in 2007 were his previous best shots. He had a double-barreled "Derby Gun" that year but under-estimated the filly and mismanaged the colt's preparation IMO. Anyway 2010 belongs to the Todd squad. Also watch for Quality Road to upstage all the RA and Z rage this year. He's off to a very good start and the Grade 1 Donn Handicap is next on the agenda. After he cops that everyone will want to duck him. Let's enjoy what promises to be a most exciting racing season.

re: 'Lookin at' the Derby Winner? Baffert Cautiously Optimistic

Fire Slam — Mon, 18 Jan 2010 03:40:41 GMT

Ranagulzion--

We will wait to see if Todd P. can finally win it. I disagree that he is stacked this year.

Dunkirk was his best chance so far. And that cost his clients almost 4.5 million---I think.

Now, if folks are smart, they will go bet Todd P. in the Derby. By me just saying he wont win, he will run first, second, and third. If he has four in that is your superfecta.

re: 'Lookin at' the Derby Winner? Baffert Cautiously Optimistic

Ranagulzion — Mon, 18 Jan 2010 03:00:39 GMT

Carlos in Cali,

Thanks for reminding me about Jose Adan ...Oh boy ...you wont let me forget him, will you? Here this Bro, you will need a lot more patience waiting on AP Indy to sire a Kentucky Derby winner than me seeing the re-emergence of the promising Godolphin-owned gelding Jose Adan. They are very patient horse conditioners over there in Dubai and it is very probable that "Jose" could rise like a Phoenix from the ashes in the Dubai World Cup on the new Tapeta surface in March this year.

You said that luck plays a big part in the overall scheme of things, so its good luck to you, AP Indy and Take Control. You are gonna need it Pal.

Fire Slam,

My comments about Todd Pletcher's abysmal Derby record are well documented on these Blogs. Nevertheless, unlike you, I can see where saddling a Derby winner would be such a huge boost for his already glittering career as a trainer that he must be aware of changes that he can make (having been mentored by the likes of Triple Crown master D.Wayne Lukas). This year he holds one of the strongest hands leading up to the classics, so much so that I fancy him to prevail. Anyway we'll see. Hold your fire in the meantime, don't slam him so hard (LOL). Wait 'til after the Derby.

re: 'Lookin at' the Derby Winner? Baffert Cautiously Optimistic

Carlos in Cali — Sun, 17 Jan 2010 23:36:20 GMT

Ranagulzion

Soon you will realize that 'Derby producing genetic make-up' is about as concrete as the 'Derby dosage index' scam that some folks believed was the Holy Grail in determining a Derby winner.That theory has been lost in the shuffle for the past 20+ years.Just because a certain Stud hasn't sired a Derby winner doesn't mean that they can't.BBaffert will give Take Control his best chance at achieving his full potential.The only negative aspect about him,IMO,is his rather late beginning to his career.But,luck plays a big part in the overall scheme of things.You should know that breeding the best-to-the-best doesn't guarantee diddly-pooh right?...But,in this case,we shall see..

Here's my proposition: I'll bet you that AP Indy will sire a Derby winner before any of your Dubai-based horses you so insistently tout,(Jose Adan et al?). lol,stay thirsty my friend.

re: 'Lookin at' the Derby Winner? Baffert Cautiously Optimistic

Fire Slam — Sun, 17 Jan 2010 21:37:01 GMT

Rangulzion--

What makes you right?? Facts are clear. Yes or no answer--Does Todd P. get some of the best bred Thoroughbred? Yes. Does he routinely run more then one of the those expensive well bred Thoroughbred in the KY Derby and other Triple Crown events? Yes.

What is his win percentage? 1/40 something???

Wow, the facts are hard to see in black and white aren't they.

Come to think of it, maybe if AP Indy babies would go to other trainers besides Todd P. since they are some of the best bred ones, they might actually have more sucess in the KY Derby and other Triple Crown Races.

Feel sorry for you, cant admit it when your wrong. Actually dont feel sorry for you. Im loving proving how much smarter I am then you.

re: 'Lookin at' the Derby Winner? Baffert Cautiously Optimistic

Ranagulzion — Sun, 17 Jan 2010 18:07:32 GMT

FIRE SLAM,

You are dead wrong. Todd Pletcher can change aspects of his training methods and regimen but AP Indy's genetic make up is unalterable. Sorry Pal ...think before you draw spurious analogies.

re: 'Lookin at' the Derby Winner? Baffert Cautiously Optimistic

Fire Slam — Sun, 17 Jan 2010 04:29:11 GMT

It sounds like AP Indy is the same as Todd Pletcher. AP Indy gets the best mares. Todd Pletcher gets the best bred horses.

AP Indy has yet to produce a Derby winner, and Todd Pletcher has yet to win a Derby despite having what is suppose to be the best of the best.

Now, its only fair, if poor AP Indy is knocked for not wining Derby with so many chances, that Todd Pletcher be giving the same treatment.

re: 'Lookin at' the Derby Winner? Baffert Cautiously Optimistic

Ranagulzion — Sun, 17 Jan 2010 02:42:09 GMT

Carlos in Cali,

So you are not buying into the truth that AP Indy is not a Derby-winner-producing sire? Have you considered that 'Indy has been covering more mares than most other stallions every year for about 17 years now and only the good mares are bred to him. It is not impossible that he could breakthrough in his twilight years like Mr Prospector did with Fusaichi Pegasus in his last crop but what are the odds Mr odds maker? That's a pretty long shot (99:1?). How much would you wager on that?

Carlos as you are a diehard AP Indy fan let me ask you this regarding Take Control. If the king of Derby Trainers Bob Baffert is unsuccessful in unsaddling Take Control in the winners circle on the first Saturday in May 2010 shouldn't you give up on your AP Indy excuses once and for all?

FIRE SLAM,

Seattle Slew is a Derby-winner-producing sire and therefore is a definite plus when he shows up in the first three generations of Triple Crown aspirants. However in the case of AP Indy (combining with Secretariat's daughter Weekend Surprise) his influence in terms of precosity and early speed appears to be a recessive genetic factor especially in Indy's colt progenies with a few exceptions. Certain genetic combinations can produce strange outcomes sometimes, far different from the dominant traits of the individuals that are mated.

re: 'Lookin at' the Derby Winner? Baffert Cautiously Optimistic

Footlick — Sat, 16 Jan 2010 01:00:48 GMT

Carlos- I'm only going by what most of the trainers who have had AP Indy's have said. I'm not saying it will never happen, but most of them said the majority take time getting it together. If you think otherwise, that's fine. There will always be exceptions.

re: 'Lookin at' the Derby Winner? Baffert Cautiously Optimistic

Footlick — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 23:26:55 GMT

Greg J- I know Sheikh Rashid wants to do well in the US. I didn't know he bought Richard's Kid too. Interesting.

re: 'Lookin at' the Derby Winner? Baffert Cautiously Optimistic

Carlos in Cali — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 23:10:41 GMT

Footlick & Ranagulzion

I know the consensus of people is that AP Indy progeny are late bloomers,but I'm not totally buying it.I mean,he's had his share of precocious win-early types who've shown class.Not to mention his bloodlines are surrounded by early maturation too.I think his 'dismal' record regarding the Derby has more to do with their preparation,or lack-there-of,and to some degree soundness issues.How many times have you seen his 2yo's win impressively,then suddenly disappear for an extended period of time?...plenty.Remember also that 'Indy was hampered by foot problems throughout his brief career.Friesan Fire got banged-up pretty bad last year in the Derby,he was kicked/stepped-on by POTN and had a gash on one of his legs.Plus,LJones' training job leading up to the race was questionable to many observers.

re: 'Lookin at' the Derby Winner? Baffert Cautiously Optimistic

Greg J. — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 21:14:42 GMT

Footlick,

It seems like you heard right about Zabeel Racing wanting a higher profile here, Just read on Bloodhorse that they have also purchased Richard's Kid and Mr. Baffert will continue to train him...

re: 'Lookin at' the Derby Winner? Baffert Cautiously Optimistic

Fire Slam — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 20:02:15 GMT

Ranagulzion--

I dont have any pedigree charts in front of me. And not trying to rip anyone. Just throwing this out for thought.

A.P. Indy is by Seattle Slew, who was an undefeated Triple Crown Winner. Its kind of strange that AP Indy babies take a while to mature, since his daddy won early.

Seems like having Seattle Slew close up in the pedigree, would suggest a win early type.

F--Fire had a terrible trip in the Derby. I cold understand if he had a good trip, and then just faded. But he got beat up pretty bad.

Hopefully, the human factors dont get in the way of Take Control.

re: 'Lookin at' the Derby Winner? Baffert Cautiously Optimistic

Jason Shandler — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 16:05:05 GMT

mg: All I know is that Vale of York is in Dubai and will probably be there until April. Don't waste your time considering him a factor for the Derby.

re: 'Lookin at' the Derby Winner? Baffert Cautiously Optimistic

mg — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 16:03:15 GMT

Jason, How about an update on Vale of York. It was indicated by his connections that he would be campaigned in the U.S. prior to a run at the Derby - any news on that front ?

re: 'Lookin at' the Derby Winner? Baffert Cautiously Optimistic

Ranagulzion — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 14:15:14 GMT

Carlos in Cali,

My conclusion about the AP Indy has nothing to do with his race record, just the historical cold facts (LOL) about the performances of his progenies in the Derby. I have observed them for years and there is always a big hype about them because AP Indy is a stamina source but they never mature in time to be a winning factor. You mentioned Aptitude but he was charging late way behind a cruising Fusaichi Pegasus in Derby 2000 and in fact looked much better later in the year. When you consider that AP Indy has been bred to the creme de la creme of the North American Broodmare band his Derby record is appalling/pitiful. A wise observer such as yourself should just face the logical conclusion. He is a great sire of classy stakes horses but a "dud" when it comes to the Kentucky Derby. We thought that Friesan Fire (one of the "bulldogs" of my ol' blogger friend Slew em All last year) might have been the breakthrough progeny in 2009 only to show himself a mere puff/poodle. This year the hype is building around Take Control. When will you AP Indy fans be convinced?

I haven't formed such a strict view of the sons of AP Indy. In all fairness they need to be given more time especially with the presence of Seattle Slew close up in the Pedigree. In fact I quite fancy Stephen Got Even and am looking forward to the offsprings of Don't Get Mad. Time will tell and doesn't lie.

re: 'Lookin at' the Derby Winner? Baffert Cautiously Optimistic

da3hoss — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 12:11:08 GMT

Take Control's going to freak back to his granddaddy's 2-year-old form...

He'll stretch out to his pedigree...

He'll have the heart of his Mom when she blew out a tendon at age 5 and still ran second and returned 6 months later at age 6 to win 3 Gr 1's, was second 2 more Gr 1's and gave us everything she had every time she ran...

re: 'Lookin at' the Derby Winner? Baffert Cautiously Optimistic

Footlick — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 20:59:01 GMT

Carlos- AP Indy's are rather notorious for maturing later on the average. There will be horses who don't fit they type like with every sire, but the majority tend to need time. That's why I want to wait on Take Control. I would rather see them take their time with him and let him mature. It's early days to be talking Derby, but the horse did show talent.

re: 'Lookin at' the Derby Winner? Baffert Cautiously Optimistic

Tim — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 20:19:11 GMT

Don't forget that Baffert didn't think Take Control would win first time out which makes his race even more impressive.

re: 'Lookin at' the Derby Winner? Baffert Cautiously Optimistic

It Aint Easy being good — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 20:02:39 GMT

Haha I love when people talk about dunkirk what a joke that horse was all hype. I am with Dray abouting training and running on the real stuff! Also POTN bumped papa in the derby! Going back to Drays point though the reason I think Calvin Borel has done so well the 3 years is he is always on horses that run on dirt and two he know the track better than anyone else. So can talk horses all you want just wait till calvin borel decides on a horse and house that thing!

re: 'Lookin at' the Derby Winner? Baffert Cautiously Optimistic

Householder — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 19:49:20 GMT

135 Kentucky Derby (Dunkirk)

1/4= 9th

1/2= 10th

Str.=12th

Fin.=11th

re: 'Lookin at' the Derby Winner? Baffert Cautiously Optimistic

Householder — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 19:37:57 GMT

Greg J. Probably got a decent price on Conveyance prior to routing. After the San Rafael win I'm sure the price goes up.

"He's a really fast horse; he reminds me of Holy Bull."

Bob Baffert