Lukas: Don't Forget About Dublin

re: Lukas: Don't Forget About Dublin

Alex'sBiggestFan — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 00:50:46 GMT

Well guys, the Southwest proves it, Dublin is a serious contender and has what Alex has. What Alex did in Preakness 2005 was noted in Sports Illustrated as him being one of the 25 most amazing animals ever. If you watch the race replay of Belmont Stakes 2005, the Southwest was very reminiscent whereby Dublin inhaled horses and came from behind about the same place as did Alex in the Belmont.

I don't like the blinkers and no son of Alex should need them! I wish they would get a steady jockey, and who better in this case than Jeremy Rose!!!!! That would be great but I don't know if he rides for Lucas. Dublin looks as though he has enough maturity, epiglottis surgery and all, to go the entire Triple Crown route. I love the name Dublin but I do wish his owners would have kept the traditional Afleet name going (Afleet/Northern Afleet/Afleet Alex). And Dublin made Steve Haskin's Derby Dozen list this week! It's way too early to make a Derby choice on any of them, but...............................

re: Lukas: Don't Forget About Dublin

Tom O. — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 16:13:01 GMT

After the Southwest I'm impressed. After a slow, stumbling start, and racing wide the whole trip; he was quickly catching up. More distance should also help. Mr. Lukas will have him ready,and settle on the right jockey. Love this horse.

re: Lukas: Don't Forget About Dublin

Mister Brew — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 02:28:29 GMT

Always liked Lukas as he is a class act. It's time for him to have a good horse again and Dublin might just be the one. Lukas likes Oaklawn....just hope Dublin does too and can overcome the 10 hole in the short mile. Lets beat the shippers!

re: Lukas: Don't Forget About Dublin

Coldfacts — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 17:49:57 GMT

Jason,

I know you are high on Dublin and rightfully so as he appears to be a nice colt. In my opinion he is not the likely 2010 derby winner. The Southwest will answer some interesting questions about his status after his surgery. Mr. Lukas estimates he was only getting 60% to 70% of his air supply prior to his surgery. Will he be 30% to 40% better? We will see.

I like a long shot in the Southwest. He is Cardiff Giant who has already made 10 starts. He was recently second in the San Rafael to the likely Southwest favorite Conveyance. I watch the San Rafael and was surprised to see Cardiff Giant equipped with a Visor, Shadow Roll and what appeared to be a figure eight. Who equip a young horse with so much equipment? In spite of the baggage he ran extremely well. I am hoping to see an equipment change for the Southwest. While I have no confidence in the Storm Cat sire line, Cardiff Giant’s dam line is on the derby chart big time. His dam was sired by Stop The Music who was dam sire of 2005 derby winner Giacomo. His second dam was sired by Jacinto who was dam sire of 1982 derby winner Gato Del Sol. His fourth dam was sired by Tom Fool sire of 1958 derby winner Tim Tam. If this dam line that loaded with classic success cannot help a son of Storm Cat then the sire line is hopeless.

NB: This may no significance but Cardiff Giant is a chestnut. Some of Storm Cat’s best sons are chestnuts i.e. Giant’s Causeway, Cat Thief, Tabasco Cat etc.

re: Lukas: Don't Forget About Dublin

Tim G — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 17:59:31 GMT

Yes he said the same things about a number of horses. The man is positive about all of his horses and no owner would want it any other way. GW was training well, performing pretty well and as we say they don't all pan out like we'd want.

However GW didn't win the way Dublin won the Hopeful.

Maybe it's resolved maybe it isn't right now he's working like a beast and what would people rather hear? 'Well I don't like his chances I'm prepping him for the Derby and wasting everyones time and money?'

Some owners are dumb, some aren't. Doubt anyone is going to try and pull the wool over the eyes of owners with a bunch of horses with them and a long term relationship.

Least of all someone as savvy as Wayne.

Heck why do you think he's so successful as a motivational speaker? Why do you think one of his golden rules of training is NO negativity? (well in a nutshell) He doesn't believe in doom and gloom and he can always find something to be positive about. Has worked out pretty well, so far.

re: Lukas: Don't Forget About Dublin

phil — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 03:06:28 GMT

Wayne has always been my favorite trainer, but he said the same things about Going Wild who was an embarressment in the Derby.

re: Lukas: Don't Forget About Dublin

Householder — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 00:50:01 GMT

The mans a legend. If the "Bald Eagle" can pull off a Derby win in his mid 70's perhaps Lukas can as well. He'll just have to find a rider who is in his mid 50's for a repeat. Loved the Shoe's ride on Ferdinand after he was pinched at the start. Dead last around the first turn, picks off horses on the backside, goes to the rail, instead of around at the 16th pole. You Tube that one!

re: Lukas: Don't Forget About Dublin

Tim G — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 19:21:24 GMT

Come on. What you are trying to say is that we don't know what secretaries will write. Those races are hard to get written and have been for years. That is why the breeding changed. Changed to what types of horses would be able to get into races.

I don't question your knowledge of the history of the game or the handicapping, following the horses.

I appreciate your posts and I've stated that. What I don't appreciate is people telling us what the reality of it is, when it isn't real at all and then talking down to us for expressing the reality as it hits us.

It's all opinion, but some is from a closer look. IF you don't talk down to me like I don't know what's going on? I'll return the respect.

We all know that the distances have changed and the order has changed over the generations, my point exactly.

Is it radical? Maybe, but maybe a necessary evil.

I just say that those who run horses know that it isn't just the breeders/owners who have altered the breed and the distances. It was foist upon us.

Mr. LuKas had a gripe about the distance, but his main issue is the timing of the races and 'holding the fields together'.

re: Lukas: Don't Forget About Dublin

Footlick — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 04:24:52 GMT

I remember when Mr Lucas first proposed changing the distances in the TC, and he stated that he thought the progression should be 9 furlongs, 9.5 furlongs and 10 furlongs. If it has changed, and now the Belmont is the only distance he wants to change, I apologize for my ignorance. I am not in the inner circle.

As far as the TC distances are concerned, the Kentucky Derby started as a 12 furlong race, and the Preakness as well as the Belmont have been different distances. They were even run in a different order at one time. But again, if I am wrong I apologize for my ignorance.

I'm sorry that I believe if we breed a horse that has more stamina influences, the breed might become a little less fragile than it is and be better equipped to deal with 10 furlongs and not have the TC knock so many horses out. But again, since I'm not an insider, I have to bow to superior knowledge.

I have never stated I know more than anybody, and am obviously not the thoroughbred insider you are.

From now on I'll remember to only post when I feel worthy. But how could I possibly feel worthy of all those in the know.

re: Lukas: Don't Forget About Dublin

Tim G — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 17:19:39 GMT

Well, guess you know more than the rest of us do about what the racing secretaries will write and why.

This started a LONG time ago.

Wayne has had several horses that excelled at the distance. But he's right, most of them who did are not studs in NA. The Belmont HAS been run at different distances and THAT is the only race that he is seriously speaking of re a distance change. More or less he and a lot of us want a timeline that will keep more of the original fields in the races, draw a fan base to have a favorite horse to follow. Isn't that really an answer to those grousing because we don't keep them in the game longer? It would allow the horses more recuperative time and insure better health and possibly less injuries.

Blasphemy! Then 'we' wouldn't be able to complain about trainers being hard on their horses, 'we'd' have to find something new to complain about.

re: Lukas: Don't Forget About Dublin

Footlick — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 06:03:42 GMT

Tim- They don't write them because trainers stopped running their horses in them because they weren't bred to run that far. Just like they stopped writing handicaps because trainers stopped running in them because they didn't want their horses to carry weight. I believe in distance races because breeding for stamina means breeding stoutness into the breed. We don't even breed horses to legitimately get 10 furlongs for the most part, let alone 12. So let's start by breeding 10 furlong horses then instead of 8/9 furlong horses that we breed now. And if you want to make 12 furlongs obsolete, then by all mean do so, but then change the TC to 8, 9 and 10 furlong race progression instead of 10, 9.5 and 12 furlong progression. I don't want to see it change, but Mr Lukas has known for quite awhile that we are running horses at these distances who really aren't bred to do so. Hence his wish to shorten the TC races. But again, it's only my opinion. I think breeding stamina is important, but if we don't need horses to run past 9 furlongs, then we don't. I think it's a loss, but again just my opinion. I know that there aren't many races written at 12 furlongs, but there is still one very important one, or at least I thought so.

re: Lukas: Don't Forget About Dublin

Coldfacts — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 05:04:22 GMT

Matthew W,

‘Coldfacts--Yes, there have been many who could not get that final leg---but where does it say 1 1/2 on the dirt is even relevant anymore?’ Why is the relevance of one leg of the Triple Crown an issue? The Triple Crown is comprised of three races therefore all legs are relevant.

My post indicated that 27 horses won 2 legs of the TC in the last 50 years. It does not mean that they all won the first two legs. For example; Thunder Gulch & Swale won the Derby and the Belmont. Tabasco Cat, Hansel & Point Given won the Preakness & the Belmont. Spectacular Bid won the Derby and Preakness.

‘Coldfacts - Which of the Triple Crown winners would you pick over Spectacular Bid at 1 1/4?’

I find the question odd as Spectacular Bid failed where every TC winner succeeded. Why should he be compared with TC winners? It would be more appropriate to compare him the other 26 horses that won two legs in the last 50 years. That’s the category in which he belongs.

Well, would pick all as they achieved something the Bid failed to do. If I had to pick one it would be Seattle Slew was he is the only TC winner that completed the series of races undefeated. He also sires a Derby and a Belmont winner. The Bid failed to win the Triple Crown and failed to sire the winner of a Triple Crown race. This does not detract from his brilliance on the track.

re: Lukas: Don't Forget About Dublin

Tim G — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 03:10:27 GMT

Wayne has spoken at length and publically about any number of horses under his tutelage. He has said he misjudged Capote in his 3 year old season. Hey we all have some misses. Some really expensive horses that should have, for all intents and purposes been great but weren't. It's a crapshoot for sure and took nerves of steel back in the day, especially.

I say that Wayne really hit his stride as far as the TC in the 90's after Jeff's accident and some of the other misfortune the first couple years of that decade. Actually if you know him, he'll talk to you about most anything, in a very forthright manner.

Footlick I know what Steve Stan is saying. You can't get a race written in this country at a Belmont distance, on a regular basis. Why breed for races they won't write?

re: Lukas: Don't Forget About Dublin

Alex'sBiggestFan — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 01:32:29 GMT

I agree with Lukas on this one, if Dublin possesses that special agility and athleticism that "papa"

displayed in Preakness 2005, then look out. And apparently Dublin has signs of it in balance and ability. Alex was only one length, not many realize, from a Triple Crown; caught in traffic in the Derby and lost by a length in third. I saw his Belmont in person and Alex did not even turn his head one inch in the post parade; I mean I stood right there and he did not flinch a muscle, straight and focused. So glad Dublin had corrective surgery and is back. Whatever the "it" factor is Dublin apparently has it and that is good enough for me. My wish is that he is "the one" I am watching this year at the Belmont in New York!!!!!!!!!! Good luck Mr. Lukas and Dublin!!!!!!!

re: Lukas: Don't Forget About Dublin

Householder — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 01:19:46 GMT

The man was for racing in the 80's as was Willie Shoemaker was a decade or two earlier. You may have never been to the track but you knew the "Shoe." I really don't think racing has changed that much. Rich owners of football and baseball teams have been traded in for record owners and wine barrons. They all want their horses to win the big one despite pedigree or confirmation limitations. I also understand that the trainers sometimes get caught in a bind between talking to the public and trying to keep the cash from the owners flowing. It would be nice to hear now, what Lukas thinks about bombs like Houston. Was he really dehydrated in the Santa Anita Derby or just beaten by a better/cheaper horse? He seemed to end his career sprinting ala Pyro.

re: Lukas: Don't Forget About Dublin

Footlick — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 17:52:30 GMT

SteveStan- yes, I am interested in Euro racing- French is my first preference actually, but I also follow British and when I can German. I would have to say though that the US thoroughbred is really not even being bred for 10 furlongs, which is our Classic distance. I think most of our horses are being bred to be superior at 8-9 furlongs, as speed seems to be the most important quality. Mr Lukas is certainly well aware of that and I'm sure it is one of the criteria he looks at when he talks about shortening up our Classic races. If we consider 12 furlongs obsolete in our dirt racing, then change the Belmont Stakes. Europeans have never lost sight that you have to keep stamina in the breed, even in their sprinters. They want a horse who can win the 2000, the Derby and the Arc. Zarkava and Sea the Stars could run 7-12 furlongs. We breed for speed. People who say that it is not necessary to run 10 furlongs are probably right. It is going to be the next distance that is considered obsolete? Then we will have a group of 8-9 furlong races as our championship series. If that's where racing wants to go, then so be it.

As for training methods and such, I have never thought a European trainer any more talented because they can't use meds. Our trainers are just as talented. Our jockeys just as talented. Our horses just as talented. Wesley Ward did a great job, and England toasted him. But he did say that he went when he did because any two-year old pointing for the major Fall races and the 3 yr old classics probably wouldn't be there, and he had fast two year olds ready to run. He was very realistic about it. Nonetheless, he did a great job and England applauded him for it. Contrary to maybe a popular belief, Europe loves it when American horses come over and run. When Tom Rolfe ran in the Arc, they wrote glowing reviews of his race even though he didn't finish in the top four. They correctly assessed that his optimum distance was 10 furlongs, and he was running against top 12 furlong horses. But he was right there at the lead at 10 furlongs, and they applauded his effort. They would love to see more American horses there.

Wesley should only be applauded. I have never criticized American trainers. They use meds because they can. There was a time when they could not. And they did just fine.

re: Lukas: Don't Forget About Dublin

Steve Stan — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 16:44:47 GMT

Wayne is too savvy to do a Q&A on here. Sad for Jason and everyone else who isn't negative without having any facts.

re: Lukas: Don't Forget About Dublin

Steve Stan — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 16:38:35 GMT

Breeders are breeding for the conditions. Find a race at that distance in the U.S. on a regular basis.

I know you're interested in Euro racing Footlick, particularly England?

However those conditions aren't the same as ours and those kinds of races really aren't written. The Classic distance in the US is what we focus on.

As to superior training, non-race day meds, training methodology?

I'd say Wes went in there and tore that theory up. My guess is if more really set their sites on that arena they'd do just fine. Whoever is a good horseman will be able to train just as well as anyone else. That doesn't mean that the superior horseman will always win, but on a level playing field they'll hold their own.

re: Lukas: Don't Forget About Dublin

Footlick — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 14:47:56 GMT

Matthew W- the fact that 12 furlongs have become irrelevant is more to do with the way we breed horses here in the US. It should be relevant, it used to be relevant and it still is relevant in Europe, Japan and Australia/New Zealand, the three other major racing areas in the world.

re: Lukas: Don't Forget About Dublin

Footlick — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 14:43:49 GMT

Matthew W- If I had to choose, I'd take Citation, Count Fleet, Affirmed, maybe War Admiral off the top of my head. But you are right that it would be a battle.

re: Lukas: Don't Forget About Dublin

Footlick — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 00:48:34 GMT

I read an interesting article about Santa Anita. All their troubles stem from how the first synthetic was put in. Not sure if the track was not dug up correctly before the cushion track was put in, but there was too much sand and that didn't drain properly. Then when they removed the cushion track and put pro-ride in, they did not get all the sand up, so that is in there with the pro-ride, hence the draining problems again. The article also said that Santa Anita has never said they were definitely going back to dirt, but whatever thjey put in, the surface will be completely stripped this time. It should have been done properly the first time.

re: Lukas: Don't Forget About Dublin

Mike Relva — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 22:33:59 GMT

GREG J

I haven't a doubt you're on point on this one. Thanks as always for your opinion.

re: Lukas: Don't Forget About Dublin

Householder — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 20:18:07 GMT

Now onto the Lewis (American Lion) and Las Virgenes (Blind Luck) this weekend. Any thoughts?

re: Lukas: Don't Forget About Dublin

It Aint Easy being good — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 20:12:17 GMT

You heard it hear first ron the geek is not going to be a factor in his next race he got lucky!

re: Lukas: Don't Forget About Dublin

Matthew W — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 20:08:53 GMT

Coldfacts--Yes, there have been many who could not get that final leg---but where does it say 1 1/2 on the dirt is even relevant anymore? Which of the Triple Crown winners would you pick over Spectacular Bid at 1 1/4? One, or two--maybe...and you'd still probably lose your $$!!