Hurry Hurry, Get Your Future Bets In!

re: Hurry Hurry, Get Your Future Bets In!

Householder — Sat, 20 Feb 2010 00:36:23 GMT

Thanks GunBow! I think adjusting the Beyer "band" + or - 6 is keeping in line with what some trainers like Hollendorfer have said with the likes of Hysterical Lady moving from synthetic to dirt. She wasn't any better on dirt although her Beyer jumped 10. He assigned Blind Luck an A- for her performance in the Las Virgenes so it would appear that he continues to hold to this philosophy. The first 3 quarters were painful (slow) to watch and one knew she was kind of in trouble at that distance.

re: Hurry Hurry, Get Your Future Bets In!

Footlick — Fri, 19 Feb 2010 18:48:41 GMT

GunBow- I agree. Beyer is pretty accurate for dirt races.

re: Hurry Hurry, Get Your Future Bets In!

GunBow — Fri, 19 Feb 2010 06:49:21 GMT

Householder:

I grew up loving Beyer speed figures and have been taking notes of the Beyers of top horses going back 19 years when they first started appearing in public in the Racing Times(shortlived rival to the Form).

Over the years, I have realized that Beyers are far less effective for turf races than they are for dirt races. Since the dominant variable in creating a Beyer fig is the final time(with track variant placing the final time in perspecttive with how fast the track was playing on that day), Beyers are almost invariably going to be lower for races with slow early paces; a slow early pace usually results in, at best, a mediocre final time. On dirt, the problem of very slow early fractions are largely limited to races with small fields. On turf, however, slow paces are much more common, which helps to explain why Beyer pars per class level are lower for turf races(the highest dirt fig over the last 25 years is 128, while the highest turf Beyer is 119). Even in Europe with world class turf horses, the final times for gr.1 turf races can be incredibly slow.

For turf stakes, particularly gr.1 races, Team Beyer will sometimes give increased weight to the closing fractions when the early pace of a race was slow. The exact amount of weight is determined primarily by just how fast the closing fractions were, although there is a good deal of subjectivity involved as well. The basic premise of these adjustments is to reward horses that can close in :11 and change for a final eighth or :23 for the final quarter when the final time does not suggest a good Beyer. I agree with such attempts, but it does make turf Beyers far less "scientific", and far more "fuzzy".

The introduction of synthetic surfaces has meant that Beyers are not "fuzzy" for an even larger percentage of all races. Although there is significant variance among synthetic surfaces, races on the synthetic Pro-Ride at Santa Anita, for example, unfold much more like turf races than dirt races. If anything, the early pace on Pro-Ride is slower than typical turf races per class level. Thus, even if Blind Luck could have closed her last quarter of the Las Virgenes in :21 flat instead of "just" :22 and 2(an amazing final split), her Beyer would have just barely hit the 100 mark, given the extrememly slow first 3 quarters.

In general, when comparing a horse moving from dirt to synthetic or vice versa (as with turf to dirt) I give the synthetic horse at least + 6 Beyer points (or the dirt horse - 6 points) assuming a perfect transfer of form(which is a big assumption- whether a horse can transfer its form across surfaces is a big handicapping question).

While I have not abandoned Beyers, out here in Cali they simply do not have the value they would in other regions of the US. In many ways, Beyers have as much relevance in Cali as they would in Europe; there is a reason why Beyers have not caught on in Europe like in the US and why most European handicappers use the more subjective Timeform or Racing Post figures. For Timeform and Racing Post, the key is class, and the margin of victory and the ease with which the victory was achieved(with weight, final time, and track variant factors as well).

Beyers were made to reflect speed, particularly early speed given how pace so greatly affects final times. When horses in a particular race basically show no speed for the first half of the race, then the Beyers are simply going to be low.

Of the recent stakes races, the one which I have the biggest problem concerning the Beyer it was assigned is the Buena Vista(gr.2 one mile on turf), won by Tuscan Evening on President's day. Although Tuscan Evening won the Buena Vista by over 2, broke the stakes record(a stakes with 20+ runnings), and ran 6/5ths of a second faster than a horse that won an allowance race the day before(at the same distance) and received a 98 Beyer(weather did not affect the turf course from Sunday into Monday as there were sunny and dry conditions on both days and throughout the preceeding week), Tuscan Evening received only a 94 for the Buena Vista.

In general, I find the Beyers for stakes at Santa Anita to be lower than what is deserved. The Beyer par for just about every stakes race has dropped about 7-10 points, and litterally just two handful of horses have been able to break the 100 plateau(on Pro-Ride or turf). The highest fig run at Santa Anita so far is the 103 for Jeranimo's Strub while St.Trinians' Paseana victory is the only other over 101.

The Strub used to consistently get well over 103 when it was run on dirt, with winning horses like Flying Continental(90'), Defensive Play(91), Best Pal(92), Siberian Summer(93), Dare and Go(95), Silver Charm(98), Event of the Year(99), General Challenge(00), Mizzen Mast(02), Medalgia d' Oro(03), Rock Hard Ten(05), and High Limit(06) all running Beyers of 110 or higher over the last 18 runnings on dirt(12 of 18 Strubs with a Beyer of 110+). The Strub has not earned a Beyer of 108 since Pro-Ride was installed 3 years ago.

re: Hurry Hurry, Get Your Future Bets In!

Mike Relva — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 22:07:28 GMT

HOUSEHOLDER

I agree with you. Andy Beyer lives in a "never never land" where he feels he's never in error. Wished I could seen his expression after Zenyatta dismantled the boys last Nov. Wonder how that worked out for him? lol

re: Hurry Hurry, Get Your Future Bets In!

gw_bushwacker — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 19:06:45 GMT

College hoops now? Refs and riots? If tea-partiers take a big interest in college hoops then the possibility of riots after bad calls goes way up. Otherwise the odds remain low.

re: Hurry Hurry, Get Your Future Bets In!

Householder — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 18:57:57 GMT

Where's Conveyance going? Is it this weekend? Baffert says he reminds him a lot of Holy Bull. Could he be our legitimate speed of the Derby of just the "set-up" for Lookin at Lucky?

re: Hurry Hurry, Get Your Future Bets In!

Zookeeper — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 18:43:39 GMT

What an incredible day of racing coming up Saturday! So many exciting events and not just KD preps. Thank goodness for this website where I will be seeing all the replays. I'll miss watching live because it's my best friend's birthday and I'll be doing other things with her. (She's not a horseracing fan.) It's her day and we'll do what she wants to do. So thank goodness for the BH website!

I wonder how much clearer the KD picture will be on Monday morning.

re: Hurry Hurry, Get Your Future Bets In!

Footlick — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 01:14:22 GMT

Householder- I'm not a Beyer fan, but Ragozin sheets also thought she was regressing, even though they said her figures were very hard to read because of the slow paces in her races last year. Thoro-graph echoed the same thoughts. But at least they realized that the pace was hampering their figures and tried to find an accurate way to adjust them. They both said that if she ran a top race, she would win. They just didn't know if she would or not. Beyer flat out said she had no chance, as many on here did-lol!

re: Hurry Hurry, Get Your Future Bets In!

Footlick — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 01:10:42 GMT

IMHO I would rather see him go through his conditions before running in races like the Florida Derby. There are many opportunities for him down the road and he needs the experience.

re: Hurry Hurry, Get Your Future Bets In!

Householder — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 00:23:49 GMT

Longwaytomay. I don't know what Andy Beyer and is crew are smoking either but with full page editorials on how Pioneer of the Nile would fall flat in the Derby, and how Zenyatta was too slow and regressing, I wouldn't touch the stuff.

re: Hurry Hurry, Get Your Future Bets In!

Jason Shandler — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 23:57:37 GMT

Greg: He's a nice horse; has good tactical speed and looks like he'll have no problem with distance. We'll see what Matz does next. I would guess he'll enter him in the Florida Derby of he comes out OK.

re: Hurry Hurry, Get Your Future Bets In!

Greg J. — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 22:57:05 GMT

Mr. Matz after the Race:

Matz said he was unsure what would be next for Lentenor although he didn't rule out the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 27 as a possible option.

"We'll see how he comes out of this one," said Matz. "All these other horses have more experience than he does. It's just hard to play catch up at this time of year."

Alright Jason, I will be sitting down when I next read your Blog, Question, What is your honest opinion on Lentenor and your thoughts on the Florida Derby? Thanks in Advance...

re: Hurry Hurry, Get Your Future Bets In!

Greg J. — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 22:36:58 GMT

An exciting race! Those last five strides of Doubles Partner were impressive! Nice ride by Chris DeCarlo, Impressive for his first race since November. While I would have been more excited with a victory, Still ran a gutsy race, He beat the colt he was looking at, Just didn't see the inside colt. I think it is a coin toss if Mr. Matz and the Jacksons point him to the Florida Derby. Mr. Matz said prior to the race that if Lentenor won "Nicely" and came out of the race fine, Then the Fla. Derby it would be. Tough call to make! Whatever happens, He is a damn good colt and will be a factor in the Triple Crown Races. Exciting Race(And, Got lucky with the Superfecta!, Which eased the pain a little)...

re: Hurry Hurry, Get Your Future Bets In!

longwaytomay — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 22:00:41 GMT

Greg J.

Nice!! I don't think Letanor disgraced himself in anyway by finishing second. I want to see him on dirt, if it's the Florida Derby that fine with me. Only problem is he would probably be going against my derby horse Eskendereya. Nice run by the Saint Liam horse, all three showed alot of guts in the last furlong.

re: Hurry Hurry, Get Your Future Bets In!

thirteen — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 20:34:52 GMT

Beau Choix is will romp in the derby.

re: Hurry Hurry, Get Your Future Bets In!

tcc — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 20:24:22 GMT

Jason:

It seems when Todd Pletcher has some derby prospect's, he wait's to long to get them some graded earnings, he then has to rush them at the last minute to try to get into starting field of the derby.

re: Hurry Hurry, Get Your Future Bets In!

Tim G — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 20:23:05 GMT

I don't even LIKE Miss State, just ribbing you for placing precedence on an OT Bball game with the #2 company over our astute and profound comments. You rise to the bait on schedule.

Just from reading on here, watching games and society in general seems like a lot of people act out as opposed to the good old days when we'd throw coins at the refs to try and give them more money than the opposing coach had.

LOL.

re: Hurry Hurry, Get Your Future Bets In!

Greg J. — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 19:38:00 GMT

Longwaytomay,

Very Tough field for an Allowance! I also like Double's Partner with Lentenor. Just watch, Lentenor wins going away, Florida Derby next up :)

re: Hurry Hurry, Get Your Future Bets In!

longwaytomay — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 19:19:20 GMT

Greg J.

Looked at the PP's for Letanor's race today. He has got his hands full. There are several nice horses in this race. If he wins today he will deserve a shot on the dirt to see if he is Derby material. I'm going to box Letanor with Doubles Partner for the exacta.

re: Hurry Hurry, Get Your Future Bets In!

Householder — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 19:16:59 GMT

Ah yes...Best Pal. Since it is Triple Crown season, I thought it fitting to note another Santa Anita Derby runner (not winner) who faired well in the Kentucky Derby (Second Place). Didn't he also take the Pacific Classic at 7 or 8 years of age? Another Cal-Bred gelding who got little respect in his place in history.

Thanks for sharing Gunbow.

re: Hurry Hurry, Get Your Future Bets In!

Zookeeper — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 18:18:23 GMT

Jason,

Good point. When the ref's call favors one's team, it's a good call, when it favors the other team the ref is a blind idiot. I do it all the time... in the privacy of my living room, where nobody can hear me. :) Don't you?

re: Hurry Hurry, Get Your Future Bets In!

Jason Shandler — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 17:48:11 GMT

Fans throwing items on the court has been going on for decades. We were just talking in the office how KY fans did it frequently in their old arena. Nova fans did it against G-Town all the time. That doesn't mean there are going to be "riots." This is America after all, not Europe or South America.

Anyway, my brother graduated from Nova and I covered them as a reporter when I lived in Philly. I wouldn't mind seeing them win it all. I have no alleginace with UK, but I live here so I root for them. My comment to you wasn't so much about the teams, just that I cant stand when people blame refs for a couple calls that could have gone either way. That happens every game, in every sport. The NFL and all the pass interference calls? Talk about calls that effect the outcome of many games.

re: Hurry Hurry, Get Your Future Bets In!

Tim G — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 17:31:54 GMT

Not the only one saying this.

Riots? On the court violence is what I mean. Violence against the refs and the players/coaches. Well, that's what the announcers and Cal were crying about. Bottles being thrown in this game, players flipping off the crowd. coins hitting coaches in the face in the WV/Pitt game?

Hmmm. figured you'd be a Nova fan being from Philly??

I'm a Louisville fan, but that's not the main team I focus on.

Just agreeing with myriad of coaches, players announcers and fans alike saying the refs are taking away from the game with their desire to be in the center of it all.

Like the games with 58-75 fouls that one particular ref calls all the time.

re: Hurry Hurry, Get Your Future Bets In!

Jason Shandler — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 15:50:20 GMT

Stop your whining Tim. There were a couple calls that could have went either way--the blocking foul on Patterson and the block by Wall that could have been goaltending. Other than that it was a well called game. Riots? What a ridiculous comment to make.

re: Hurry Hurry, Get Your Future Bets In!

Slew — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 14:23:37 GMT

I think the reason the SoCal horses are not yet considered Derby is not that they are SoCal. They simply need to show their style at dirt tracks around 2 turns at a minimum a 8.5 furlongs. Many have not yet done that. The horses that have already done that, are the horses presently most seriously considered contenders.

Rachel, I watched that Aqueduct race 9 again...it looks as though Thousand Excuses took a bad step, went down, and also tangled in the rail. Sadly, he was euthanized on the track.