TrueNicks : Hypothetical Matings

Black Caviar's First Mating: Is Redoute's the Right Choice?

Alan Porter — Wed, 17 Apr 2013 21:05:00 GMT

Which stallion will have the privilege of serving Black Caviar in her first season at stud?...(read more)

TrueNicks Launches New Matings Features

Ian Tapp — Thu, 30 Aug 2012 15:30:00 GMT

New report add-ons include Email, Save, Print, Stallion Inquiry, and Alternate Matings features....(read more)

Gary Hadden Discusses Mating of Reckless Abandon

Ian Tapp — Thu, 23 Aug 2012 21:00:00 GMT

Bloodstock consultant explains his reasoning behind the mating that produced undefeated Prix Morny (Fr-I) winner....(read more)

Taking Charge of the Pedigree

Alan Porter — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 20:45:00 GMT

Florida Derby winner gives us an example of genetic affinities within the entire pedigree....(read more)

Zenyatta's Next Mating: Tapit

Ian Tapp — Fri, 23 Mar 2012 14:00:00 GMT

After foaling a Bernardini colt, Zenyatta will be bred back to Tapit....(read more)

Big Age Gaps Make for Interesting Matings

Ian Tapp — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 17:00:00 GMT

Different generations combine when first-season stallions breed older mares, and vice-versa....(read more)

New Social Media Options for TrueNicks

Ian Tapp — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 16:40:00 GMT

Now you can email, save, tweet, and Facebook recommend TrueNicks matings more easily....(read more)

A New Tool for Stallion Selection

Ian Tapp — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 16:40:00 GMT

The new Broodmare Select finds only the highest rated nicks for your mare...(read more)

Goldikova Going to Galileo

Ian Tapp — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 17:00:00 GMT

TrueNicks takes a look at possible future matings for Breeders' Cup runners....(read more)

TrueNicks Gets Enhanced!

Ian Tapp — Mon, 22 Nov 2010 17:00:00 GMT

We've launched a new, comprehensive nicking report....(read more)

What's the Difference?

Alan Porter 1 — Sun, 10 Jan 2010 17:30:00 GMT

A TrueNicks user asks why there are sometimes differences between the ratings shown on the new TrueNicks Stallion Affinity Report and individual nicks....(read more)

The Tribe has Spoken! - Curlin tops potential matings for Rachel Alexandra

Byron Rogers — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 13:42:00 GMT

The TrueNicks community voted on the best first mate for superfilly Rachel Alexandra. Here are the results, along with links to the full reports....(read more)

Your Turn: Time to Suggest a Mating for Rachel Closes FRIDAY!

Byron Rogers — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 13:06:00 GMT

Classic-winning filly Rachel Alexandra gave the boys a lesson this weekend in the Haskell. Because of her latest accomplishment we're going to extend our request for readers' choices for Rachel's best breeding match....(read more)

Your Turn: Analyze Rachel Alexandra's Breeding Opportunities

Byron Rogers — Mon, 11 May 2009 14:00:00 GMT

Rachel Alexandra has taken North American racing by storm. The runaway winner of the Kentucky Oaks has been sold since her Classic win, she's been involved in some Preakness controversy, and her new owners have indicated mating plans even before her retirement. Amidst all the hoopla, TrueNicks readers are asked to help select the perfect stallion to match an exceptional mare. Read on for the rules of the game.......(read more)

Quite Contrary Exceptions

Alan Porter 1 — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 19:42:00 GMT

Alan Porter identifies cases where a poor overall sire line affinity can be improved by other pedigree patterns -- a process aided by additional tools included on the TrueNicks report page....(read more)

READER Q&A - Should I Breed My Mare?

Byron Rogers — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 10:37:00 GMT

Byron takes a reader's question and dispenses his opinion about matching class and quality in Thoroughbred mating decisions....(read more)

Who Should Peppers Visit? -- Suggest a Mating for the Record-breaking Thoroughbred Mare.

Byron Rogers — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 20:20:00 GMT

With the imminent retirement of record-breaking mare Peppers Pride, Byron Rogers offers his suggestion as to a suitable mating for 2009, and turns it over to you to make yours....(read more)

What If? Nick Ratings for Your Dream Mating

sgillies — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 15:30:00 GMT

I had some fun coming up with potential mates for the great mare Hasili (IRE). Now it's your turn, readers: pick your favorite mare (from your own herd or from the racing headlines) and run a FREE hypothetical mating against any of the 300+ subscribed stallions on TrueNicks. What's the best rating you can produce?...(read more)

Reader Q&A: Cost vs. Quality

sgillies — Sat, 02 Aug 2008 16:16:00 GMT

Question : My question is whether there a much greater risk factor when considering between two stallions that differ in the fact that one has many proven mares and was a very good performer himself, while the other is a young stallion that is well-bred but has never raced because of an injury, and doesn't yet have a large number of offspring? The two stallions give a similar nick rating. I have a...(read more)

Research is a Mare Owner's Best Investment

admin — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 20:03:00 GMT

Amy from Lexington asks Alan: I work for a small farm in Lexington and have been helping to plan matings. I really enjoy pedigree research and learning all the theories behind different nicks / crosses inbreeding / outcrossing, etc. The main problem I have run into had been finding a way to figure out what lines broodmare sires cross with. I was hoping you could shed some light on finding a good approach to look at a mare's sire and gather information on what that horse has accomplished as a broodmare sire, and with what lines he has made those accomplishments. I would appreciate any advice you can give me.

I also wanted to tell you that I love your website. It is very informative, and makes for an easy read. Thank you for your time.

Alan responds: Hi Amy, thank you for your question.

The Jockey Club's equineline.com has several products that will help you analyze a mare and find out the stallions that have worked best with her broodmare sire.

Product 61 (view sample) gives all the foals out of mares by a broodmare sire, along with the sire of those foals, and their race records (including whether or not they are black type performers). Product 62 gives the best performers out of a mare by a chosen broodmare sire, along with their sire.

Another report, product 91 (view sample) allows you to enter a mare and obtain a list of all sires out of mares by her sire, and number of foals, starters, winners, black type winners, total earnings and AEI, all with percentages.

Using these products will enable you to tell the sires that have worked with the broodmare sire. From there it is possible to consider one of the stallions that have worked, or another horse from the same sire line (The Blood-Horse Stallion Register lists stallions by sire, and has charts of stallions arranged by sire lines).

Of course, when the possible horses have been selected, the potential matings can be run on TrueNicks hypo-mating (with many leading commercial stallions subscribing to give breeders complimentary access to nick ratings, and others available for a $20 report fee - a wise purchase when considering that most stud fees are five figures).

In the coming months TrueNicks will be releasing products that enable a broodmare owner to enter a mare and obtain a list of stallions in a chosen price range and location, sorted by TrueNicks rating.

Giant's Riches

admin — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 17:03:00 GMT

Yesterday brought the news that champion 3-year-old filly Rags to Riches was to be retired and bred to Giant's Causeway.

The match of the history-making Belmont Stakes (gr. I) heroine with Storm Cat's leading son is one that should create a tough runner, and a horse that will have no problems with classic distances.

Of course, we couldn't resist running it through the TrueNicks program. This came up with the mating as a C based on the Storm Cat / A. P. Indy cross. That cross has produced only three stakes winners, albeit a couple of notable names, headed by the Haskell (gr. I) winner and Kentucky Derby (gr. I) runner-up Bluegrass Cat (TrueNicks, SRO), and graded stakes winner Untouched Talent. Storm Cat himself sired Bluegrass Cat and Untouched Talent from seven starters out of A.P. Indy mares, but so far there are 42 starters by sons of Storm Cat out of A.P. Indy mares, and only one stakes winner.

There are, however, some other factors - beyond the outstanding class of the sire and dam, a very important point - that might help this mating. From a pedigree pattern standpoint, we can note that both Giant's Causeway and Better Than Honour, the dam of Rags to Riches, are Northern Dancer / Blushing Groom crosses. We can also note that Giant's Causeway is sire of the exciting sophomore stakes winner Giant Moon, who is out of a mare by Capote who, like A.P. Indy, is a son of Seattle Slew.

Ashado Booked to Street Cry

admin — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 10:02:00 GMT

Darley announced this week that two-time champion Ashado, whose $9-million price at Keeneland's November sale in 2005 was then a record for a broodmare or broodmare prospect sold at public auction, will be bred this year to Street Cry (IRE) (TrueNicks, SRO) (a stallion who is subscribed to TrueNicks complimentary hypothetical mating reports). This will be one of the more interesting matings of the year with the result being an inbreeding to the good sire Halo and containing a number of duplications of the outstanding broodmare Almahmoud.

The Street Cry/Ashado mating is an A+ TrueNicks mating and it is worth taking a look at. Why? It is a good example of looking at the pedigree in its totality. While the sire line/broodmare sire line is an A-level rating, and thus worth considering on that basis alone, there are also some other elements in the pedigree that look quite desirous especially when one looks at the pedigree of Street Cry's grade I winning filly Cry and Catch Me (see attachments).

Gold Edition: Report from Australia, Part II

admin — Tue, 05 Feb 2008 07:02:00 GMT

Continuing on yesterday's search for the best potential matches for recently-retired Australian sprint star Gold Edition (AUS)...

Broadening our scope to look to other parts of the world raises a number of intriguing prospects.

Starting in the U.S., we have Street Cry (IRE) (TrueNicks, SRO), the Machiavellian son who has made such a sensational start to his stud career. Combining Machiavellian with Danehill - sire of Gold Edition - gives a rather unique mating, with three crosses of Northern Dancer's dam, Natalma (through three different sources), and a fourth cross of her dam, Almahmoud, via Halo. The Street Cry - Gold Edition match returns a nice A+ TrueNicks rating.

Smart Strike is a half brother to brilliant Danzig daughter Dance Smartly. Not surprisingly, he's done extremely well with Danzig-line mares, the cross yielding five stakes winners, four of them group/graded, and two grade I, for an A+ TrueNicks rating. With the ability to sire outstanding turf horses, and to get quality runners over a wide range of distances, he looks a very nice fit here if Gold Edition's owners were to consider stallions outside the shores of Australia.

If one had to nominate the best living son of Mr. Prospector, it would be the veteran Kingmambo, whose cross with Gold Edition scores a TrueNicks A and who has five stakes winners out of Danzig-line mares, including graded winner Tarfah out of a mare by Danehill.

Two Mr. Prospector-line horses that stood briefly as shuttle horses in Australia before their merits were really known are Mr. Greeley and Distorted Humor (TrueNicks, SRO). Mr. Greeley left behind Oakleigh Plate (Aus-I) winner Miss Kournikova from only a handful of Australian-sired foals. He's proved to be a particularly good sire of turf horses, with three European group I winners. He rates an A+ with Danzig-line mares, the cross providing four stakes winners including graded scorer Greeley's Galaxy.

Distorted Humor sired two Australian crops, getting nine stakes winners from 95 starters. The rating here is an A based on the Forty Niner/Danehill cross that produced two stakes winners for Forty Niner's son End Sweep.

Coolmore sire Giant's Causeway never produced the results in Australia that he did in Europe and the U.S., but for the record, two of his four Australian-sired stakes winners, graded scorer Murjana and Juste Momente, were out of mares by Danehill. With only nine starters on the cross, this warrants an A++.

Making the transatlantic journey from the U.S. to Europe, we look again to Coolmore, finding a promising match who is proven with Danehill in both hemispheres: Sadler's Wells' son Galileo (IRE). While considered a shade disappointing in Australia, he has European champion 2-year-old Teofilo (IRE) and Australian stakes winner Banc De Fortune (AUS) out of Danehill mares, giving the Galileo-Gold Edition mating a TrueNicks A++.

The most likely European alternative might be the Cheveley Park Stud stallion Pivotal (GB). One of Europe's best sires, the grandson of Nureyev earns a B+ when matched with Gold Edition, but a look at TrueNicks' unique list of the best horses bred on the cross shows that he has sired classic winner Saoire (GB) out of a mare by Danehill.

In all there are some very interesting choices to be made for the owners of Gold Edition. If they choose to remain in Australia, stallions like More Than Ready (TrueNicks, SRO) and Hussonet look the best choices, while overseas stallions like Smart Strike, Kingmambo, and Pivotal - all world class sires - look likely options.

Gold Edition: Report from Australia, Part I

admin — Tue, 05 Feb 2008 03:02:00 GMT

The retirement of the brilliant sprint filly Gold Edition (AUS) engendered some speculation in Australia as to what might be her ideal mate, especially as she is by a son of Danehill, which naturally rules out some of Australia's most illustrious sires.

With the help of the mating tool TrueNicks, we were able to indulge in some speculation about how the brilliant speedster might best be mated if choosing from amongst the world's leading sires. One advantage of the TrueNicks platform is that, with the comprehensive database of The Jockey Club, which gathers known foals and race results from around the world, it is able to consider true opportunity based on actual matings from all corners of the globe.

One Australian stud that looks out of court for Gold Edition, even though he has been a standout stallion, is the leading sire Encosta de Lago (AUS). Generally a solid commercial play, that son of Fairy King has so far had 17 runners out of mares by Danehill and his sons, with only one stakes winner from this cross.

Looking at local residents and shuttlers, we do come up with a few possibilities for Gold Edition. One shuttle sire who has been tried extensively with mares by Danehill and his sons, and has stood up well to the test, is the Vinery stallion More Than Ready (TrueNicks, SRO). A versatile sire, More Than Ready looks the sort to get a real speedster out of this type of mare. More Than Ready, who scores a solid A+ with Gold Edition, is a grandson of Halo, with whom Danehill has combined extremely well.

Hussonet is starting to emerge as a very useful sire under Australian conditions. The son of Mr. Prospector has done very well in South America with mares by Danzig son Royal Danzig, getting three group/graded winners, two of them at group I level. Hussonet of course has the exciting 2-year-old Reaan (AUS) out of a daughter of Danehill; the potential Hussonet/Gold Edition mating results in a TrueNicks score of A+.

Across the Tasman Sea, veteran Zabeel (NZ) has been tried extensively with Danehill-line mares, and has proved very solid, getting a B+ nick rating and tallying four group winners including the group I winning duo of Dizelle (AUS) and Vengeance Of Rain (NZ).

Tomorrow, we'll look at exciting possibilities for Gold Edition with sires in the U.S. and Europe.

In the Beginning

admin — Tue, 18 Dec 2007 21:12:00 GMT

by Alan Porter

The launch of TrueNicks represents the completion of a full circle regarding my involvement in the Thoroughbred industry.

By age 19 I had completed three years of “hands on” experience working at an English stud farm. Around that time, the English magazine Stud & Stable published an article with a grid showing sire line crosses and the percentage of stakes winners each cross had produced that year. As a student of statistics, it struck me that the calculations of these figures made no allowances for opportunity. In those days it would have been nearly impossible to track down all the foals that made up the population, so I did what seemed to be the next best thing. I dug out a copy of The Register of Thoroughbred Stallions – at that stage it would have included just about every sire of consequence in England and Ireland – and counted up how many stallions were recorded and from there calculated the likely percentage of the population represented by each sire line, taking into account hypothetical opportunity.

Young and brazen, I mailed off my conclusions to the magazine along with a "corrected" version of their grid. Fortunately for me, the criticism was generously received and the letter led to a nine-year job and an association with the company that has continued on to the present day.

Male line crosses or “nicks” have since become a big business, but it has always been in my mind that they have never really been done as they should. Nicks that are based on hypothetical opportunity never accurately reflect what has taken place in reality. Unfortunately, to create nicks that truly reflect opportunity requires knowing all the horses bred on the cross, and for that a comprehensive--and very large--database is required.

In association with Byron Rogers, and partnering with The Blood-Horse magazine, my life's project started to get off the ground. Making use of the historical records of The Jockey Club, the TrueNicks system was born during three years of intensive testing and development. Having waited 30 years, it is immensely satisfying to have been involved in the creation of what I feel is destined to become the new industry standard for measuring nicks and sire line crosses. And of course, with The Jockey Club and The Blood-Horse--the official publication of the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association--involved, TrueNicks is very much the industry’s nicking system.

While the TrueNicks rating completes a personal journey, it will also become the departure point for new expeditions, as the next months and years see the introduction of a complete suite of exciting new products.