TrueNicks : Other Breeding Theories

A.P. Indy and Stallion Ratings

Byron Rogers — Tue, 07 May 2013 13:50:00 GMT

The A.P. Indy sire line is the premier sire line source of classic speed in the North American Thoroughbred....(read more)

Is Silverbulletday Skipping a Generation?

Alan Porter — Wed, 27 Mar 2013 17:30:00 GMT

Hall of Fame filly's daughters are turning into sterling producers....(read more)

Frankel's First Mating: Lots of Inbreeding

Ian Tapp — Tue, 05 Mar 2013 00:00:00 GMT

Mating with Chrysanthemum carries a whopping 15.33% coefficient of relatedness....(read more)

Mating Peruvian Champion Almudena

Alan Porter — Tue, 26 Feb 2013 20:05:00 GMT

Mare's obscure pedigree makes finding the right Kentucky stallion a challenge....(read more)

Planets Aligned

Byron Rogers — Tue, 17 Jul 2012 15:45:00 GMT

The pedigree of Galileo's promising son Mars tells a considerable story in more ways than one....(read more)

Inbreeding Demystified

Byron Rogers — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 22:30:00 GMT

Few pedigree topics are more emotive than the subject of inbreeding....(read more)

Biomechanics, Performance Take Spotlight at Conference

Ian Tapp — Thu, 01 Sep 2011 15:45:00 GMT

Experts in racehorse biomechanics join internationally known speakers on pedigrees and genetics....(read more)

Conference Features Top Pedigree Pundits

Ian Tapp — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 20:00:00 GMT

Several top pedigree analysts headline upcoming conference in Lexington....(read more)

Genetics Will Be Hot Topic at Conference

Ian Tapp — Tue, 30 Aug 2011 19:15:00 GMT

Relationship between genes, muscle, and performance is a highly anticipated topic....(read more)

Nicking Theory Featured in NY Times

Ian Tapp — Wed, 16 Mar 2011 15:00:00 GMT

Article examines Rachel and Zenyatta's quest to produce top offspring....(read more)

The Genetics of Nicking

Byron Rogers — Tue, 30 Nov 2010 15:00:00 GMT

Byron Rogers discusses recent study of genetics and nicking....(read more)

Infusing Speed or Stamina?

Ian Tapp — Tue, 27 Jul 2010 19:30:00 GMT

Interesting thoughts on foundation broodmares....(read more)

The Sadler's Wells/Mill Reef Nick

Ian Tapp — Fri, 02 Jul 2010 15:30:00 GMT

What's going on with this nick?...(read more)

Q&A - What are the Differences Between TrueNicks & Other Nicking Systems? What's More Important, a 'Good' Dosage Profile or a Good Nick Rating?

Alan Porter 1 — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 20:26:00 GMT

Dawn asks : I am somewhat new to this and really need some help. have a mare named Buy You A Bear (Bayou Hebert x Sheckyrilla - Shecky Greene) that I am contemplating breeding to Borrego or Leroidesanimaux. These are my questions: 1) Based on TrueNicks, she nicks better with 'Leroi' than Borrego, but her Dosage is better with Borrego and she has more stakes winners with him as well. Is it because the...(read more)

Nureyev Up Close

Alan Porter 1 — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 20:46:00 GMT

Inbreeding to Northern Dancer is now common enough to be unexceptional. The newest trend to show promise is duplicating Nureyev in Thoroughbred pedigrees....(read more)

Quite Contrary Exceptions

Alan Porter 1 — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 19:42:00 GMT

Alan Porter identifies cases where a poor overall sire line affinity can be improved by other pedigree patterns -- a process aided by additional tools included on the TrueNicks report page....(read more)

Reader Question -- Why do the Dosage Index and TrueNicks Score Seem to Disagree Sometimes?

sgillies — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 14:08:00 GMT

TrueNicks reports include several data elements in addition to the nick rating and variant score. A broodmare owner inquires about using Dosage information as part of his pedigree evaluations....(read more)

READER Q&A - Should I Breed My Mare?

Byron Rogers — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 10:37:00 GMT

Byron takes a reader's question and dispenses his opinion about matching class and quality in Thoroughbred mating decisions....(read more)

Cherokee Run and Rahy -- A Blushing Groom Nick

Alan Porter 1 — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 20:12:00 GMT

While the cross of Blushing Groom (FR) stallions over daughters from the same line is debatable, there's no question that his son Rahy is emerging as a true damsire of sires....(read more)

Parallel Series

sgillies — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 16:21:00 GMT

We've frequently mentioned, in this and other columns, varieties of what we call "Parallel Patterns." There are variations, but a general description would be where a sire and a mare or broodmare sire are bred on a similar cross (we also have inversion of this, which we've christened "Reverse Parallel Patterns"). A couple of recent 2-year-old races threw up a pair of interesting "Parallel Pattern"...(read more)

A Perfect Show

admin — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 18:07:00 GMT

With the Australian racing season winding to a close, the final stakes race of the winter was run at Eagle Farm last Saturday with the Glenlogan Park-owned mare Perfect Feeling claiming the listed Tattersalls Mile.

Perfect Feeling is a daughter of the Coolmore stallion Spinning World, who in this author's opinion is one of the best value stallions to stand in Australia this coming breeding season, and is out of the unraced Lady Cairns, a daughter of Breeders' Cup Mile winner Last Tycoon. Lady Cairns in turn is out of the New Zealand winning Crested Wave mare Blue Water Lady, a sister to the Caulfield Stakes (Aus-I) winner Drought, and a half-sister to Salcantay (by Palace Music), winner of five races including two listed events.

Spinning World has had a brilliant season in Australia with the highlight being his 3-year-old daughter Heavenly Glow winning the AJC Oaks and STC Arrowfield Stud Stakes (both Aus-I).

What should be interesting to those that know her pedigree is that Heavenly Glow is out of a mare by Celestial Bounty, a son of Last Tycoon's sire, Try My Best. A brother to the high-class El Gran Senor, Try My Best is out of Sex Appeal, a daughter of Best in Show who of course also features as the fourth dam of Spinning World. Thus both Heavenly Glow and Perfect Feeling, who rate A++ with TrueNicks, are inbred to Best in Show 5 x 5. One of the most significant tap-root mares of the last 50 years, the grand producer Best in Show is ancestress of more than 70 stakes winners, the best known including El Gran Senor, Try My Best, Aldebaran, Aviance, Chimes of Freedom, Spinning World, Malinowski, Xaar, Yagli, Strong Hope, Rags to Riches, Jazil, Domedriver, Umatilla, Hurricane Sky, and Redoute's Choice.

In the case of Spinning World at least, inbreeding to this superior mare has proven a very profitable nick.

One Horse Wonders

admin — Wed, 14 May 2008 12:05:00 GMT

Looking through some recent results, we noticed that another nicking program had rated Elite Squadron - who took the May 3 Churchill Downs Stakes (gr. II) - as an A++ nick. A cross check with TrueNicks revealed that Elite Squadron is rated D. Naturally, we wondered what could have caused such a discrepancy.

A little research revealed that Elite Squadron is the only starter for the cross on which "the other program" rates him - Officer/High Brite. Putting in a different son of Bertrando (sire of Officer) with Elite Squadron's dam, Sweet Mama, also gives an A++ rating on the Bertrando/High Brite cross. This is still based on just one stakes winner - Elite Squadron again - even though Bertrando has never had a starter out of a mare by High Brite (he does, however, have eight starters and no stakes winners out of mares descending from Best Turn, the sire of High Brite, and 17 starters and no stakes winners out of mares descending from Turn-to, sire of Best Turn). Of course, "the other program" doesn't know how many times a cross has been tried, so, presumably the Officer/Bertrando or Officer/High Brite cross - which went from no stakes winners to one stakes winner the day that Elite Squadron won his first stakes - jumped from bad to good.

From the standpoint of the TrueNicks program, Elite Squadron (who is out of a stakes-winning and graded stakes-placed mare), is not sufficient to turn what has been proven an underperforming cross into a highly-rated one. It does, however, give an opportunity to warn about taking seriously other programs' fairly frequent A++ nicks that are based on only a single successful horse.

Incidentally, talking of Elite Squadron reminds us that we should note that his sire, Officer (TrueNicks, SRO), certainly is no "one horse wonder." Having retired to stud at a fee of $12,500, he has sired 14 stakes winners in his first two crops, with Elite Squadron joining Officer Rocket (GB) and Officer Cherrie as graded stakes winners.

To Region or Not to Region

admin — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 18:04:00 GMT

We were recently forwarded an e-mail containing an advertisement from another pedigree consultancy that mentioned "... other pedigree information services that attempt to dazzle you with vast database resources without discriminating the information that matters from the information that doesn't ...." It also asserts that it chooses not to include the results of restricted stakes - even though that can include such valuable and prestigious races as the Canadian Queen's Plate or the Japanese Derby.

Without conjecturing whether or not this refers to TrueNicks, it is certainly the case that TrueNicks has "vast database resources." However, TrueNicks - developed by industry professionals with extensive international experience in all aspects of racing and breeding - certainly knows how to sort and provide the information that matters.

In any case, the comments do raise some interesting points. One is that the fundamental difference between the TrueNicks database - that of The Jockey Club Information Services - and others is not so much that it is vast, but that it is thorough. It is this comprehensive database that allows TrueNicks to take into account all starters and foals bred on a cross, thus reflecting true - as opposed to hypothetical - opportunity. (As a bonus, it also means that TrueNicks ratings are always calculated using the most current data possible.)

Other nicking services work from a selective database that includes some stakes winners, from some countries, over some time period - and have devised convoluted arguments to explain away shortcomings in their data.

In fact, they strain to make a virtue out of a vice, and suggest that examining hypothetical opportunity among a select class of runners is going to yield more accurate results than comparing real achievement with real opportunity across all known foals and starters. Of course, this is patently false. The email cited earlier also alleges that

"... patterns of successful breeding are evident only in runners of genuine quality"
"... certain methods of inbreeding, sire-line crosses, or combinations of ancestors that never yield a listed stakes winner may often show up among the winners of restricted stakes"

The first assertion is patently wrong: patterns of successful breeding turn up in good and bad runners alike (as do less successful ones), and it is only when looking at all foals that we can determine how successful a cross or pattern is relative to opportunity. TrueNicks factors in both frequency of attempts and quality of material involved.

The second contention needs to be looked at in two parts. Firstly, let's consider the assumption that the unrestricted races included in our competitors' compilations of stakes winners are always going to be superior to restricted stakes winners. Upon even a surface examination, their criteria produce some strange anomalies.

For example, a horse would not qualify for their calculations by winning the Japanese Derby (a restricted race) - but a Japanese gr. III winner, who was soundly defeated in the same race, would qualify. It is also strains credulity to believe that all stakes winners in countries such as New Zealand, Italy (including Sicily), and Germany, or all gr. III winners in Chile or Peru, would be superior to the winners of, say, the Canadian classics. Even looking at Australia, where racing is of a generally higher standard, the winner of a race such as the Tasmanian Derby at Hobart (a group event), would in most cases struggle to get anywhere near the winner of the Canadian restricted turf classic, the Breeders' Stakes.

Similar anomalies apply when we consider racing in the U.S. There are restricted stakes at major tracks where the winning performances are clearly superior to open company stakes events at some smaller tracks. With these inconsistencies in mind, it should be clear why TrueNicks chooses to follow the industry standard and considers all winners of black type events as determined by the International Cataloguing Standards.

It's true that restricted and regional stakes winners are drawn from a wider gene pool, and as result sometimes have inbreeding via ancestors different from those found in more commercial pedigrees. However, in our experience of studying Thoroughbred pedigrees - which now extends back more than 35 years - nicks, crosses, or pedigree patterns that consistently work at the highest level tend to be beneficial further down the tree. For example, Giant's Causeway has done very well with Mr. Prospector-line mares, so we might expect that his brothers Freud and Roar of the Tiger (TrueNicks, SRO) (who stand in New York and Florida, respectively), would benefit from being bred to Mr. Prospector-line mares in those regions. The reverse can also be true: a nick that establishes itself in a regional program, and with modest stock, may well be worth recreating with higher-quality individuals.

Moreover, the sheer quality of individuals found at the higher levels can often compensate for lower degrees of pedigree affinity, a fact that highlights a major flaw in selectively-compiled databases.

For those who argue that it's problematic to compare highly-commercial sons of a particular stallion with less-renowned sons of the same sire, and to help breeders determine the level at which a nick has success, the TrueNicks page has a unique feature - a list of the top five horses bred on the given nick.

Last but not least, omitting restricted stakes winners severely limits competing products' suitability to be relevant to regional breeders. Unlike TrueNicks, they are not able to accurately identify and report specific regionally-successful nicks .

TrueNicks, with its comprehensive database, is the new industry standard in nick ratings.

Reader Q&A: Inbreeding to Alydar

admin — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 18:03:00 GMT

Jeri from New York asked: I'm pleased to see Empire Stud signed up! Could you ask Alan Porter if there is any value to tying to inbreed to Alydar. I do not see his name come up in pedigrees anymore and I have mare by Western Expression whose bottom has Alydar mate of third dam. I may be going back to far, but I could not help but think of the great horse himself.I met Mr. Porter at McMahon's a few years ago with my young children in tow. We bred our first race horse on his say. He is yet to win but just turned 3 and the trainer and owner had him in 52000 open races at 2. I wish they stuck with the lower New York races!

Alan responds: Thank you very much for the question. I would not see any downside in inbreeding to Alydar. I have seen one stakes winner with this pattern.The reason that we don't see a lot of Alydar inbreeding, and a relatively small presence of Alydar in pedigrees overall, is that although was an outstanding sire, he turned out to be a disappointing sire of sires, with horses like Easy Goer (who died relatively young), Alysheba, Criminal Type, Turkoman, Saratoga Six, and Strike the Gold failing to come up to expectations. Relative to opportunity, his best stallion son has probably been California's Benchmark, who is sire of grade I winners Brother Derek, Idiot Proof, and Silent Sighs.Alydar was also a very good broodmare sire, but unfortunately - unlike some stallions who follow the "disappointing sire of sires, good broodmare sire of sires" pattern, such as Buckpasser and Secretariat - Alydar hasn't been an outstanding broodmare sire of sires, his best known studs in this role probably being California's General Meeting; Lure, who had fertility issues; Maryland's Lion Hearted and his brother, Easing Along, who made a good start in South America and now shuttles to Claiborne; Peintre Celebre, who has stood in Europe, South America, Australia, and Japan; Cat Thief; and Anees and Strolling Along (two more who died young).

The above horses apart, probably the most successful two stallions at stud in the U.S. with Alydar in their pedigree would be Arch (second dam by Alydar) and Point Given (TrueNicks, SRO) (dam by Turkoman).

So, as a result of the above, we see a lot less of Alydar in pedigrees than other comprable sires from the era, and what we do see is often through less high-quality sources. Both of these trends militate against his appearance as a target for inbreeding.

That said, there is no reason to avoid inbreeding to him, if the mating is otherwise a good one.

Good luck with your N.Y.-bred 3-year-old. Let's hope the owners place him where he has a better opportunity this year.

Research is a Mare Owner's Best Investment

admin — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 20:03:00 GMT

Amy from Lexington asks Alan: I work for a small farm in Lexington and have been helping to plan matings. I really enjoy pedigree research and learning all the theories behind different nicks / crosses inbreeding / outcrossing, etc. The main problem I have run into had been finding a way to figure out what lines broodmare sires cross with. I was hoping you could shed some light on finding a good approach to look at a mare's sire and gather information on what that horse has accomplished as a broodmare sire, and with what lines he has made those accomplishments. I would appreciate any advice you can give me.

I also wanted to tell you that I love your website. It is very informative, and makes for an easy read. Thank you for your time.

Alan responds: Hi Amy, thank you for your question.

The Jockey Club's equineline.com has several products that will help you analyze a mare and find out the stallions that have worked best with her broodmare sire.

Product 61 (view sample) gives all the foals out of mares by a broodmare sire, along with the sire of those foals, and their race records (including whether or not they are black type performers). Product 62 gives the best performers out of a mare by a chosen broodmare sire, along with their sire.

Another report, product 91 (view sample) allows you to enter a mare and obtain a list of all sires out of mares by her sire, and number of foals, starters, winners, black type winners, total earnings and AEI, all with percentages.

Using these products will enable you to tell the sires that have worked with the broodmare sire. From there it is possible to consider one of the stallions that have worked, or another horse from the same sire line (The Blood-Horse Stallion Register lists stallions by sire, and has charts of stallions arranged by sire lines).

Of course, when the possible horses have been selected, the potential matings can be run on TrueNicks hypo-mating (with many leading commercial stallions subscribing to give breeders complimentary access to nick ratings, and others available for a $20 report fee - a wise purchase when considering that most stud fees are five figures).

In the coming months TrueNicks will be releasing products that enable a broodmare owner to enter a mare and obtain a list of stallions in a chosen price range and location, sorted by TrueNicks rating.