TrueNicks : Sire Lines, Pedigrees and Breeding

From the Vault: TrueNicks Top 10 Nicking Myths Webinar

Byron Rogers — Tue, 17 Sep 2013 23:00:00 GMT

We've reached back into the time vault and unearthed a TrueNicks webinar that we filmed back in 2009. While it is over three years old, much of what we talked about back then is still relevant today. Enjoy!...(read more)

Departing Adds to Confidence on War Front/Pulpit Cross

Alan Porter — Fri, 16 Aug 2013 15:20:00 GMT

While there is no doubt that nicks tend to run in sire lines, we've also often found it profitable to consider the dam of a stallion when attempting to predict potential crosses....(read more)

Galileo/Danehill Revisited

Alan Porter — Thu, 18 Jul 2013 04:45:00 GMT

The Galileo/Danehill cross continues to perform at a high level, getting a 16% stakes winners to starters rate that is unchanged compared to 2011....(read more)

A Key Ancestor for Encosta de Lago

Byron Rogers — Mon, 10 Jun 2013 19:45:00 GMT

Encosta de Lago has established an impressive record with mares carrying strains of three-time Australian leading sire Bletchingly....(read more)

A.P. Indy and Stallion Ratings

Byron Rogers — Tue, 07 May 2013 13:50:00 GMT

The A.P. Indy sire line is the premier sire line source of classic speed in the North American Thoroughbred....(read more)

Filly 'Same Cross' is Bred on the Right Cross

Ian Tapp — Thu, 14 Feb 2013 19:25:00 GMT

Cleverly-named filly is bred on same cross as champion Proud Spell....(read more)

The Real Bend Or

Byron Rogers — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 20:00:00 GMT

New study used mitochondrial DNA to discover Derby winner Bend Or's true identity....(read more)

Pedigree Time Machine: Tom Fool

Alan Porter — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 20:30:00 GMT

We look back at the great Tom Fool, whose son Silly Season is doubled in Black Caviar's pedigree....(read more)

What's the Difference?

Alan Porter 1 — Sun, 10 Jan 2010 17:30:00 GMT

A TrueNicks user asks why there are sometimes differences between the ratings shown on the new TrueNicks Stallion Affinity Report and individual nicks....(read more)

Perfect Nicking: When a Sire and Broodmare Sire Go Perfect

Byron Rogers — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 07:00:00 GMT

Some sires find a perfect match in particular broodmare sires and have all their foals as stakes winners on the cross....(read more)

Not Your Father's Cross

Alan Porter 1 — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 22:10:00 GMT

Unlike their sires, sons of Kingmambo and Gone West are working well with Deputy Minister line mares....(read more)

The Ramsey's Joy

Alan Porter 1 — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 17:17:00 GMT

Ramsey Farm has struck again with Kitten's Joy, America's leading first crop sire of stakes winners...(read more)

The Aga Khan Stars Also Shine

Alan Porter 1 — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 18:31:00 GMT

Horses bred or owned the Aga Khan swept seven French group events, five of them group I last weekend and they came all across the distance scale, with all manner of pedigree patterns....(read more)

Reader Q&A: Inbreeding to Alydar

admin — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 18:03:00 GMT

Jeri from New York asked: I'm pleased to see Empire Stud signed up! Could you ask Alan Porter if there is any value to tying to inbreed to Alydar. I do not see his name come up in pedigrees anymore and I have mare by Western Expression whose bottom has Alydar mate of third dam. I may be going back to far, but I could not help but think of the great horse himself.I met Mr. Porter at McMahon's a few years ago with my young children in tow. We bred our first race horse on his say. He is yet to win but just turned 3 and the trainer and owner had him in 52000 open races at 2. I wish they stuck with the lower New York races!

Alan responds: Thank you very much for the question. I would not see any downside in inbreeding to Alydar. I have seen one stakes winner with this pattern.The reason that we don't see a lot of Alydar inbreeding, and a relatively small presence of Alydar in pedigrees overall, is that although was an outstanding sire, he turned out to be a disappointing sire of sires, with horses like Easy Goer (who died relatively young), Alysheba, Criminal Type, Turkoman, Saratoga Six, and Strike the Gold failing to come up to expectations. Relative to opportunity, his best stallion son has probably been California's Benchmark, who is sire of grade I winners Brother Derek, Idiot Proof, and Silent Sighs.Alydar was also a very good broodmare sire, but unfortunately - unlike some stallions who follow the "disappointing sire of sires, good broodmare sire of sires" pattern, such as Buckpasser and Secretariat - Alydar hasn't been an outstanding broodmare sire of sires, his best known studs in this role probably being California's General Meeting; Lure, who had fertility issues; Maryland's Lion Hearted and his brother, Easing Along, who made a good start in South America and now shuttles to Claiborne; Peintre Celebre, who has stood in Europe, South America, Australia, and Japan; Cat Thief; and Anees and Strolling Along (two more who died young).

The above horses apart, probably the most successful two stallions at stud in the U.S. with Alydar in their pedigree would be Arch (second dam by Alydar) and Point Given (TrueNicks, SRO) (dam by Turkoman).

So, as a result of the above, we see a lot less of Alydar in pedigrees than other comprable sires from the era, and what we do see is often through less high-quality sources. Both of these trends militate against his appearance as a target for inbreeding.

That said, there is no reason to avoid inbreeding to him, if the mating is otherwise a good one.

Good luck with your N.Y.-bred 3-year-old. Let's hope the owners place him where he has a better opportunity this year.

A First for Storm Cat, and Other Observations

admin — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 21:02:00 GMT

Here's a mating which we think represents a first. When Ingrid the Gambler (Johannesburg - Pretty Livia, by Forest Wildcat) took the Wishing Well II Handicap Feb. 10, she became what is almost certainly the first stakes winner (in fact, the first stakes horse) by a Storm Cat-line stallion out of a Storm Cat-line mare. As students of pedigree know, the cross of a sire over a mare from the same immediate sire line tends to have a disappointing strike rate. Ingrid the Gambler is rated a TrueNicks C horse, but has other factors that help "rescue" the pedigree. One of these is a double of Mr. Prospector combined with his genetic relative, Bold Native, and another is a cross of Nijinsky II, a genetic relative to Storm Cat's sire, Storm Bird.

Still on the subject of Storm Cat, we've always thought that Smoke Glacken had promise with Storm Cat mares, especially as he is half brother to the excellent sprint filly, Smokey Glacken, a daughter of Storm Cat's popular son Forestry (TrueNicks, SRO). The key is Smoke Glacken's broodmare sire, Magesterial, who is by Northern Dancer out of a mare by Bold Lad (who is bred on the successful Bold Ruler/Princequillo cross), while Storm Cat is by a son of Northern Dancer out of a mare by Secretariat (who is also produced from the Bold Ruler/Princequillo cross). The first stakes winner on the cross was the Monmouth Park NATC Futurity winner Cat On a Cloud, and the second is Throbbin' Heart, winner of the Marshua Stakes Feb. 9. What is particularly interesting about this A++ rated nick is that Smoke Glacken has two stakes winners from only three starters out of Storm Cat mares.

A few years ago, some pedigree pundits railed against inbreeding to Mr. Prospector, employing some rather flawed logic to do so. Fortunately, those considering sending mares to Dixie Union - whose second dam is by Mr. Prospector - did not heed the cries. When Grasshopper took the Mineshaft Handicap (gr. III) Feb. 9, he became the fourth stakes winner, and third graded winner, by Dixie Union out of a Mr. Prospector mare (so inbred 4 x 2 to Mr. Prospector). Not surprisingly, the mating is an A++ nick.

Back on the male line/male line cross.... The Turf Paradise Derby winner Nikki'sgoldensteed (a B on TrueNicks) is by Mr. Prospector great-grandson Formal Gold out of a mare by "Mr. P" son Tank's Prospector. This one has a very clever trade-off for the male line/male line inbreeding: Formal Gold's sire, Black Tie Affair (IRE), is out of a mare by Al Hattab (by The Axe II). The second dam of Nikki'sgoldensteed is by Grey Dawn II. Both The Axe II and the dam of Grey Dawn II are by Mahmoud out of daughters of Blue Larkspur mares, making them genetic relatives. "Just by coincidence," the other stakes winner by Formal Gold out of a Mr. Prospector-line mare has a dam by Two Punch, whose maternal grandsire is ... Grey Dawn II!

Honour Untarnished

admin — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 03:02:00 GMT

In a race that saw highly-rated ex-U.S. runners Etched and Numaany finish fourth and fifth, the Honour and Glory colt Honour Devil maintained an undefeated record with a half-length win in the Gulf News UAE Two Thousand Guineas (UAE-III). Foaled in Argentina, Honour Devil won his sole start in his native country in 2006, and in his only other career outing, he captured the trial for this race at Nad al Sheba racecourse.

Honour Devil is out of Diamond Fitz (ARG), a daughter of Fitzcarraldo (ARG). A tremendously successful sire in his own country, Fitzcarraldo - who traces in male line to the great English stayer, Alycidon (GB) - is probably best known in the U.S. as sire of the Brooklyn Handicap (gr. II) winner Seattle Fitz (ARG), who stands at Buck Pond Farm in Kentucky, and as broodmare sire of Overbrook Spinster Stakes (gr. I) heroine Miss Linda (ARG). Honour Devil's granddam, Diamond Tilly, is an Alydar half-sister to Louisiana Derby (gr. II) winner Balboa Native.

As the attached pedigree shows, Honour Devil was an A+ rated horse by TrueNicks even before he captured his first stakes. He's actually the second Dubai classic winner this year to have a rating in the "A's" - following the Meydan UAE One Thousand Guineas winner, Cocoa Beach (CHI) - and both are by U.S. sires out of South American mares, which demonstrates how well the system works with international bloodstock.

In this case, the promise of potential for the Honour and Glory/Fitzcarraldo cross was the success that Slew Gin Fizz (like Honour and Glory, a son of Relaunch) had enjoyed with mares by Fitzcarraldo and his sire, Cipayo (ARG). He's had four stakes winners, three of them graded with two grade I, out of mares by Cipayo, and two more graded stakes winners out of Fitzcarraldo mares. There is also a previous graded stakes winner by Honour and Glory out of a Fitzcarraldo mare.

For those interested in how outcross pedigrees can result in consistent nicking patterns, we can usually note that in the deeper background, both parents have ancestors with concentrations (the concentration being more important than the sheer number) of similarly bred individuals. With a Relaunch-line horse over Cipayo and Fitzcarraldo, we might be looking at the fact that Relaunch's sire, In Reality, is inbred to War Relic, a horse with an intense concentration of Rock Sand. His granddam, St. Marguerite (GB), is a three-quarters genetic relative to a horse called Tristan, and Tristan's daughter, Lord Derby's great mare Canterbury Pilgrim (GB), appears very strongly in Cipayo and Fitzcarraldo.

More Silence

admin — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 03:01:00 GMT

Diane, a broodmare owner in California, wrote in to suggest an addition to my earlier comments about Sunday Silence and his stallion sons. In addition to Silent Name (TrueNicks, SRO) and Hat Trick (TrueNicks, SRO) (JPN)-Sunday Silence sons who willl be commence their stud careers in Kentucky in 2008-she drew my attention to Austinpower (JPN) (Sunday Silence -Eishin Austin, by Seattle Slew), who was most recently advertised as standing at Lou-Roe Farm in Morriston, Fla. Austinpower is out of a half sister to champions Devil's Bag and Glorious Song and major sire Saint Ballado, all of whom were sired by Sunday Silence's own sire, Halo. Austinpower, who ran third in each of his only two starts, has sired nine winners from the 14 runners and 22 foals to emerge from his first two crops, including stakes winner Rosemaui and graded stakes placed Encrespada.

Of Math and Men (and Horses), part II

admin — Tue, 25 Dec 2007 03:12:00 GMT

Click here to read part I

Things get really tricky for a system when lack of opportunity forces a default to deeper generations for analysis (which happens less frequently with TrueNicks than with hypothetical systems that depend on a much smaller-and problematically incomplete-sample size).

It's one thing, for instance, to rate Storm Cat when mated to mares by Mr. Prospector, but quite another to rate an untried son of Storm Cat with a mare by a modest grandson of Mr. Prospector. This is because of a couple of factors.

First, the more successful a stallion or broodmare sire is, the more representation he will have in the population, and those representatives will vary greatly in quality and class.

Second, the more successful a cross becomes, the more it will be copied, and by the nature of things, it is going to tend to be copied more frequently using inferior rather than superior stock.

As a result, the strike rate of our example cross will be dragged down by the number of times that it has been tried using uncommercial sons of Storm Cat with mares by modest grandsons of Mr. Prospector.

There is a way around this, however. If we consider a group of mares bred to a stallion, we find that they have generally been bred to other stallions of similar quality. Expensive sons of Storm Cat will generally have been bred to high-quality mares, with less expensive sons of that horse bred to mares of lower quality.

The mares bred to the expensive sons will generally have been bred to other leading stallions, and the mares bred to the less expensive sons, to other stallions at their own level.

Therefore, the group consisting of "mares bred to Storm Cat and his sons" is going to have been bred proportionally to a range of other stallions at a similar level. The reverse of that equation would apply to the group "mares by Mr. Prospector and his sons and grandsons which have been bred to Storm Cat and his sons" with regard to their other mates.

So, when we assess how well Storm Cat and his sons have done with all mares by Mr. Prospector and his sons and grandsons, compared to how well those mares have done with all other stallions, some valid statistics emerge.

The development of TrueNicks provided plenty of opportunity to test the validity of the premise. With the input of The Jockey Club, we were able to evaluate and calibrate the rating on a test group of over 100,000 horses, representing two entire recent U.S. foal crops.

This produced some very significant results. For example, more than a third of all stakes winners earned a rating of A++, and two-thirds of stakes winners are rated A or better. Against this, less than one third of the whole population is rated at that level. At the other end of the scale, horses rated D or F make up more than a third of the population (actually 36%) , but supply only 8% of the stakes winners.

What is even more interesting is that the system performs well when studying horses bred in numerous different geographic locations, or even from different eras going back as far as the immediate post-World War II period. (Watch out for a coming article: The Test of History - Grading the Greats.)