TrueNicks : Validity

Ten Myths: You've Read the Report, Now Watch the Webinar!

sgillies — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 13:30:00 GMT

A few weeks back, we presented a fun paper called Top 10 Myths About Nicks in Thoroughbred Breeding. Today at 2 p.m., Alan Porter and Byron Rogers will host a half-hour video on the topic....(read more)

Before She Was a Stakes Winner She was a TrueNicks A++ Rated Horse!

brogers — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 19:55:00 GMT

While Medaglia d'Oro's sale to Darley may have temporarily averted the spotlight towards the son of El Prado, young Gainesway stallion Tapit continues to duke it out with him in the production of stakes winners. Malibu Beach became stakes winner number six for Tapit June 5 when she won the Alyssum Stakes at Belmont....(read more)

A Year On -- TrueNicks Scores From the 2008 March OBS Sale of 2-Year-Olds

brogers — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 14:30:00 GMT

We thought that it was worthwhile going back and taking a look at the 2008 OBS March sale of 2-year-olds to examine the horses that rated well with TrueNicks from that sale. ...(read more)

Quite Contrary Exceptions

aporter — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 19:42:00 GMT

Alan Porter identifies cases where a poor overall sire line affinity can be improved by other pedigree patterns -- a process aided by additional tools included on the TrueNicks report page....(read more)

Using TrueNicks to Predict Racetrack Success

brogers — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 15:42:00 GMT

Byron Rogers introduces a TrueNicks study that will track the 2-year-old crop of several top sires....(read more)

Reader Question -- Cross Produces Grade I Winners But Rates Poorly... Why?

aporter — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 14:58:00 GMT

Alan responds to a reader's question about high-rated nicks that haven't produced graded winners, and lower-rated crosses that boast one or more grade I winners. The key is looking at how much success each sire-line cross has had based on actual opportunity....(read more)

No Apologies: TrueNicks Reports the Bad with the Good

brogers — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 20:25:00 GMT

Byron Rogers discusses the high incidence of poor choices made in Thoroughbred matings today -- and how TrueNicks refuses to reward inopportune crosses with positive ratings....(read more)

Juvenile Errors

aporter — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 13:18:00 GMT

A couple of recent stakes winners illustrate the advantage TrueNicks boasts due to the up-to-the-minute data provided by The Jockey Club Information Services....(read more)

5 Things You Should Know About Thoroughbred Nicking

brogers — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 01:06:00 GMT

What should you really consider when investigating the nick rating of any potential purchase or mating? ...(read more)

Luck — Or Opportunity?

sgillies — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 16:20:00 GMT

We had yet another example of the imporatance of considering opportunity when creating nick ratings with the August 1 victory of Luck Money in the Majestic Light Stakes at Saratoga. Irish-bred Luck Money was scoring his first stakes victory, although he'd been third to superstar Henrythenavigator in the Coventry Stakes (gr. II) and captured the Goffs Million (endowed with a $2.3 million purse!) last...(read more)

Opportunity Knocks

sgillies — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 16:19:00 GMT

Some recent articles by propents of rival nicking systems have floated the idea that somehow programs that don't use a database of worldwide stakes winners, and don't consider true opportunity - in fact they admit they don't use opportunity at all - can be more accurate than the TrueNicks program that considers true opportunity, and utilizes the comprehensive database of The Jockey Club Information...(read more)

Reader Q&A: Cost vs. Quality

sgillies — Sat, 02 Aug 2008 16:16:00 GMT

Question : My question is whether there a much greater risk factor when considering between two stallions that differ in the fact that one has many proven mares and was a very good performer himself, while the other is a young stallion that is well-bred but has never raced because of an injury, and doesn't yet have a large number of offspring? The two stallions give a similar nick rating. I have a...(read more)

Readers Ask: Seeking the Gold/Halo

admin — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 15:06:00 GMT

Q: I was looking for nicks with a mare by Abaginone. Your reports show an A++ for a Seeking the Gold/Halo crossing but all the stakes winners listed are by one sire, Mutakddim, out of Southern Halo mares bred in Argentina. Is this a statistical quirk or a valid basis for generalizing about a Seeking the Gold/Halo nick?

A: Thank you for the question. The calculation for a mare by a son of Seeking the Gold out of mares from the Halo line is valid. This takes into consideration all foals and starters by Seeking the Gold-line stallions out of Halo mares. The cross has been a successful one over a number of generations and in different parts of the world. Seeking the Gold himself with Halo mares is an A++ nick, and has produced four stakes winners, including graded scorer Catch the Ring. In Australia, Seeking the Gold’s son Secret Savings has sired graded stakes winner Salameh and grade I winner Shamekha out of mares by Halo’s son Don’t Say Halo (who is tail female to La Troienne). Then, of course we have the phenomenal success in Argentina of Mutakddim crossed over mares by Southern Halo. Now obviously, the Mutakddim/Southern Halo cross has had a lot of opportunity, but for it to make a positive contribution to the TrueNicks score for the Seeking the Gold/Halo cross, it would generally have to have a higher percentage of stakes winners than both Mutakddim when bred to all other mares, and that achieved by the Southern Halo mares bred to Mutakkdim, when they were crossed with allother stallions. The reason the “Best Horses bred on the cross” shows only Mutakddim/Southern Halo crosses is that they have produced most of the best horses on the nick. Incidentally, the cross probably works well because Halo has a strong affinity for Seeking the Gold’s maternal grandsire, Buckpasser. Abaginone is linebred to the La Troienne family (from which Buckpasser stems), and so should be very suited by Seeking the Gold.

Golden Daffodil

admin — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 18:06:00 GMT

That under-appreciated Nijinsky II line stallion, Hernando (by Niniski), is having an excellent run with his current crop of three-year-olds, which include the English Oaks (gr. 1) victress Look Here (A+ TrueNick Rating); Casual Conquest (A+), winner of Derrinstown Derby Trial (gr. II) and third in the English Derby (gr. 1); and most recently, on June 24, Indian Daffodil, who took the Prix Daphnis (gr. III), having been second to French Derby (gr. I) winner, Vision d'Etat, on his previous outing.
Looking through the international racing results, we were surprised to see that another pedigree consultancy had doomed Indian Daffodil with an F rating on their own scale. A look at TrueNicks found Indian Daffodil rated A on our scale. A reasonable man (or woman) may ask - why such a discrepancy?

The difference in the ratings comes down to the way that TrueNicks calculates its ratings. With access to the vast set of foals, runners, winners and stakes winners that are born and race every day throughout the world found in the TJCIS database, TrueNicks is able to produce a rating based on all possible opportunity, rather than basing a rating on a restrictive subset of stakes winners and a hypothetical opportunity as the other company does. The result is that the ratings that TrueNicks generates more readily reflect the population as a whole, or in other words the reality of what is actually occuring in the thoroughbred, than the ratings generated by the other company whose efforts are hypothetical at best and misrepresent reality when sire lines met more or less frequently than they should in theory.

While he stands in Europe, Hernando had never previously had a stakes winner out of a mare by Danehill (the broodmare sire of Indian Daffodil) or his sire Danzig with opportunities for the cross limited to Indian Daffodil appearing to be his only starter out of a Danehill mare, and there being only five starters for him out of mares by other sons of Danzig. However his record with Northern Dancer line mares in general had been very good, yielding eight stakes winners prior to Indian Daffodil, including the French Derby (gr. 1) winner, Holding Court, and three other group winners. A quick look at the "Best Horses bred on this cross", a unique feature found with TrueNicks also revealed that these stakes winners came from a wide variety of branches of the Northern Dancer line, so it's not particularly surprising to see him work over Danzig.

Before leaving Indian Daffodil, we have to note that his second dam is by Nijinsky II's son, Green Dancer, also sire of the third dam of Hernando's classic winner, Look Here. Hernando actually has four stakes winners with Nijinsky II inbreeding, and it's possible that this works well for him as he is out of a mare by Miswaki whose broodmare sire Buckpasser is a son of Tom Fool, a stallion bred on a reverse cross to the dam of Nijinsky II.

A Generation Removed

admin — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 19:06:00 GMT

We are often asked the question on nick ratings - "do they work across multiple generations?" The answer ironically depends on the genuine strength of the affinity between the sire lines in question. Examples of nicks that seem to span generations and withstand the scrutiny of time include Fappiano over In Reality-line mares and Seattle Slew over Mr. Prospector-line mares with these two in particular providing superior runners via sons and grandsons being bred on the same cross and the production of stakes winners outstripping opportunity with other sire lines.

The Australasian bloodstock market is at the moment saturated with Danzig/Danehill-line mares and one sire line that seems to be emerging as an interesting option for owners of those mares, and one that is certainly going across generations, is that of the Australia-based stallion Zeditave. A brilliant sprinter from the Nearco sire line via European champion Showdown, Zeditave himself has sired the stakes winner KaKaKaKatie out of a mare by Danehill.

A generation further on and Zeditave's sons Magic Albert, sire of Al Be Nimble, and Strategic, sire of the champion 2-year-old Meurice and stakes winner La Famelia, have both had success with mares by Danehill. On the weekend we saw this affinity stretch a little further with Strategic Image, a son of Strategic, siring his first stakes winner when Altered Image (A TrueNicks rated before his stakes win) won the NZ$55,000 Listed Castletown Stakes for juveniles at Foxton. Danasinga is of course a son of Danehill so we are looking at a grandson of Zeditave siring a stakes winner out of a mare by a son of Danehill... strength indeed.