TrueNicks - All Comments

re: Oh, Brother! A Look at Full Brothers in Pedigrees

Alan Porter — Mon, 26 May 2014 01:12:29 GMT

I would guess a lot of reasons to do with the type of horse, the degree to which the inherited similar variants for performance and aptitude, and where and when they stood.

With Sadler's Wells and Fairy King, I would have had the impression that Fairy King would generally be inclined to get a less staying type.

Similarly, Diesis was certainly more precocious than Kris, and he would have tended to receive rather different mares standing in the U.S., where Kris stood in England.

With Devil's Bag, I would suspect that the Mr. Prospector mares he covered were 1) sired when Mr. Prospector was younger, and 2) where probably much nearer peak producing years when they visited Devil's Bag.

Graustark and His Majesty were somewhat different types, but did at least stand at the same place at the same time, and cover a lot of the same mares.

re: Oh, Brother! A Look at Full Brothers in Pedigrees

sceptre — Sun, 25 May 2014 22:28:58 GMT

There is no (scholarly) genetic rationale to suggest that the dam has more "influence" on physique or aptitude. Don't be fooled by anecdotes; one can easily offer them to the contrary. Yes, for example, Crimson Saint's aptitude probably did dominate in her offspring, as this is quite possible genetically- just as Crafty Prospector (the stallion) tended to dominate, aptitude-wise, in his offspring. One can get all variations on the theme. for Some stallions, and some dams tend to dominate re-outward appearance. This too is genetically possible. But, all examples such as these are the rarities; a basic blending is far more common as we're dealing with a large number of alleles- unlike when one parent is a BB (homozygous brown) for eye color. Here, all offspring (regardless of whether the other parent was blue or brown eyed) would possess brown eyes.

re: Oh, Brother! A Look at Full Brothers in Pedigrees

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 24 May 2014 11:22:34 GMT

"Is the reason why say Sadler's Wells is who he is because he got more than the average 50% of the variants/haplotypes found in Northern Dancer and Tate Gallery is who he is because he got less than 50% and more of Fairy Bridge?"

The dam having more influence on the type of physique and aptitude of the offspring is always a possibility. Nijinsky surely seemed have gotten more of his mum - taller and rangier than dad, and quite stoutly bred as well; she won the 10f Queen's Plate over colts.

Terlingua always seemed more like her mum, the closet Quarter Horse Crimson Saint, than like Secretariat. And to me, her son Storm Cat seems to throw to one or the other parent - to Storm Bird, who sired more than one classic-type horse, or to 7f specialist Terlingua. Storm Cat in the pedigree may not mean the same thing in every context.

re: Oh, Brother! A Look at Full Brothers in Pedigrees

sceptre — Fri, 23 May 2014 22:03:02 GMT

Byron,

Re-your last post: Of course that's true-in that it's very hard to make generalizations (so I assume your method here was Socratic?). The genetic variables are enormous, but a sophisticated attempt/study of probabilities might prove productive.

re: Oh, Brother! A Look at Full Brothers in Pedigrees

sceptre — Fri, 23 May 2014 21:27:29 GMT

Well, Byron, on to your last question-about Sadler's Wells and Tate Gallery, etc...Firstly let's clear something up for some of your readers. Both Sadler's Wells and Tate Gallery have 50% Northern Dancer genes and 50% Fairy Bridge genes-no need to say "on average" here. And, within your context when you say "variants/haplotypes" what I assume is meant here is + variants/haplotypes. So, that's a bit of "house cleaning" to help others better understand what you're trying to convey. Byron is not implying that, for example, one son received MORE Northern Dancer genes than the other. But he is speculating that Sadler's Wells may have received more of Northern Dancer's POSITVE allelic variants/and haplotypes than did Tate Gallery. He is also speculating that Sadler's Wells may have received more of Northern Dancer's + dominant genes whereas Tate Gallery may have received more of Fairy Bridge's dominant genes. Anyway Byron, if that's not what you meant then we are in immediate disagreement re-some basic genetics...Now when you say "SIRE sons of elite stallions..." this generally connotes that those sons were very capable racehorses, and seems to suggest that their racing ability was more likely due to having received a higher proportion of their sire's +variants (which, on average, would tend to be more abundant than would their dam's). This type of conjecture is very similar to my last post about your Galileo/Danehill/Buckpasser issue, and also my last post to Alan (in previous blog). I think it's open to debate worth pondering and probably can be resolved with a lot of mathematical analysis.

re: Oh, Brother! A Look at Full Brothers in Pedigrees

Byron Rogers — Fri, 23 May 2014 21:00:37 GMT

Sceptre,

I tend to agree with Ann in that it is very hard (but not impossible) to make generalizations about who has inherited what in terms of variants/haplotypes (most of the reason why the X-Factor is complete bunk). It is of course muddied by the fact that there are a lot of different ways to be a good racehorse and you only have to beat who turns up on the day.

re: Oh, Brother! A Look at Full Brothers in Pedigrees

sceptre — Fri, 23 May 2014 20:30:42 GMT

Boy Byron, you have a knack for unwittingly (meant in a + sense) re-opening a topic of the very last TrueNicks blog (Alan's piece). This is at least the second recent time this has happened-and on both occasions it went without real resolution. I mention this in reference to your aside (stimulus for this piece) about the Galileo/Danehill/Buckpasser etc. query. Galileo's Buckpasser and Danehill's Buckpasser come through Hopespringseternal and Spring Adieu respectively. The former was unraced and the latter was a minor winner (I liked her, though, and once tried to purchase her privately (for myself) prior to the advent of Danehill)). But anyway, I wouldn't consider them to be top sources of Buckpasser. Anything's possible, but all else equal, I'd consider it less likely that the "Buckpasser connection" is that causative in the apparent success of that "nick".

re: Oh, Brother! A Look at Full Brothers in Pedigrees

sceptre — Fri, 23 May 2014 20:05:13 GMT

Keep in mind that while full siblings may "look" differently should not imply that their total genomes are less similar than full siblings that "look" more the same.

re: Oh, Brother! A Look at Full Brothers in Pedigrees

Byron Rogers — Fri, 23 May 2014 19:43:06 GMT

Ann/Sceptre,

You both came with the same answer which I expected. I wasn't so much asking for "heavy lifting" to be done, rather putting the questions out there for discussion. It was sparked by a conversation with another pedigree analyst who suggested that Buckpasser was the 'cause' of the success of Galileo with Danehill mares to which I responded, why hasn't he worked with Eagle Eyed mares, or Black Sam Bellamy with Danehill mares?

I've updated the post to your question Sceptre - interesting that you both used His Majesty/Graustark. That duo must have been more your generation :)

So then the question becomes, if a horse on average has 50% of its own sires genes and 50% of its dam's genes. Is the reason why say Sadler's Wells is who he is because he got more than the average 50% of the variants/haplotypes found in Northern Dancer and Tate Gallery is who he is because he got less than 50% and more of Fairy Bridge?

Do the sire sons of an elite stallion share more in common with their sire in terms of percentage inherited from them?

re: Oh, Brother! A Look at Full Brothers in Pedigrees

Pedigree Ann — Fri, 23 May 2014 19:04:15 GMT

"It would be interesting to hear some theories on why that occurs." -

Well, one could start from the fact that on average, full siblings have only 50% of their genetic material in common . And that's an average - it could be more or it could be less. A group of dominant or semi-dominant alleles that Sadler's Wells got from his dad, may not be expressed in Fairy King - he got the recessive lot. Or vice versa. They might not have received the same X-chromosome from mum - she has two on offer, after all.

Full siblings can be quite similar, or they can look like my brothers and I look in a group photo - are these 4 people really related? Graustark was big, striking chestnut, His Majesty was a smaller standard-issue bay. Working only from paper pedigrees doesn't tell you everything.

re: Oh, Brother! A Look at Full Brothers in Pedigrees

sceptre — Fri, 23 May 2014 16:21:42 GMT

Hi Byron

Dare I say, you're asking us to carry much of the load.

For starters, while the offspring of any given stallion, and that stallion's full-sibling should, ON AVERAGE, possess 50% of that stallion's genes, any (above) offspring will ALWAYS possess exactly 50% of those genes while any individual full sibling's genome possession can (theoretically) vary between 0-100%. There are, obviously, many other genetic and "commercial" variables involved in why some full siblings tend to mirror the other at stud, while others don't...If you would, supply us the stats for Graustark and His Majesty with, say the Tom Fool-line. It's my perception that it worked well for both-I'm relatively sure of this-, but I doubt your stats will confirm. Should they not, this may be another fertile topic for discussion.

re: Unbridled's Legacy: North American Second-Crop Sires

sceptre — Tue, 20 May 2014 21:02:57 GMT

Pioneerof the Nile looks to be the (U.S.) star of this group, but nice to see some success for the Unbridled's Song sons. Yes Two Step Salsa is one of the surprises and very happy for it. His sire, the underrated Petionville, is a lovely little guy, full of quality. He was given enough numbers, but not very many quality mates. One wonders what might have been the result had it been otherwise. I was the direct underbidder on him as a yearling, and about 6-7 yrs ago tried unsuccessfully to acquire him for overseas interests. Petionville's sire, Seeking The Gold, is to my mind the best living (albeit now retired) genetic influence on the breed. The fact that his sons have not excelled at stud (quite yet) is ,for me, a major disappointment. As was the case with his broodmare sire, Buckpasser, he failed to sire enough high profile male runners for them to be afforded sufficient opportunity at stud-at least that's my spin. As a broodmare sire, Seeking The Gold has no peer (in the present). Time will tell how well his male line carries on; Two Step Salsa and Dubawi might be a start, and I did manage to send two promising sons of Seeking The Gold abroad who will be offered some quality mates. (by the way I failed with my own Seeking The Gold son.

re: Miss Steele - a case for a clever inbreeding

sceptre — Tue, 20 May 2014 15:13:55 GMT

Alan,

Most certainly, close inbreeding TO quality individuals had been taken for granted. My point, however, wasn't that one should inbreed TO quality individuals (which obviously one should) but, rather, that it is far more productive if they also inbreed THROUGH quality individuals. Perhaps my choice of the word THROUGH was too vague. Anyway, it was my understanding that this was/is a fairly accepted dictum (not necessarily one I share). It would, though, tend to favor inbreeding/linebreeding through exclusively male lines. The reasoning behind this is fairly apparent, but whether or not it's correct (truly mirrors reality) is another matter. As example, consider a Bold Ruler linebreeding through Boldnesian-Bold Reasoning-Seattle Slew and say, Raja Baba-Is it True-Yes It's True. Now consider if the latter (instead of Yes It's True etc.) was a poor runner and producer, out of a poor runner/producer who was sired by Bold Ruler. The "idea" here is that the benefit one would derive from ONLY the Bold Ruler inbreeding/linebreeding would be greater in the first example-that ,here, it is more likely for one to "capture" more of the better Bold Ruler genes/better chance to achieve a + "grouping" (a grouping that may have in part been responsible for Bold Ruler's greatness).

re: Miss Steele - a case for a clever inbreeding

Hal Dane — Tue, 20 May 2014 14:52:40 GMT

Clever inbreeding.. The four great/grandsires of sunday's Polish 1000 Gns winner, GREEK SPHERE, were :- Northern Dancer - Shirley Heights - Northern Dancer - Darshaan (son of Shirley Heights)

Irish bred.. I believe she is unbeaten..

re: Miss Steele - a case for a clever inbreeding

Alan Porter — Tue, 20 May 2014 01:09:42 GMT

Sceptre/jmcnatt

To tackle the last of Sceptre's points first, there is definitely an economic aspect (or aspects) to my thinking on this. Certainly when I have clients with large broodmare bands, I will tend to be aggressive with their less expensive stock, as I feel close inbreeding (to quality individuals, which I should have stated, but I guess had taken for granted would be implied) is the best chance of upgrading a pedigree. Someone with 100 mares would almost certainly be better of trying to get one really good horse an a bunch of bad ones from their bottom 25 mares.

There is also an economic aspect with a smaller breeder who is going to be limited with regard to the class of stallion they can use.

If we look at Miss Steele, her dam was a minor winner in three starts, and three-quarters sister to a graded winner from a family that had not achieved much lately. The main negative was her sire, Shagny, a failure as a runner, sire and broodmare sire, but a well-bred horse (by Blushing Groom out of a sister to Storm Bird).

I would say, then that breeding her to a Storm Bird line horse made sense (and oddly enough, and so that we are not accused by being wise after the event, we write the Stallion Synopsis for Eliza Park International, who stand Statue of Liberty, the sire of Miss Steele, and we had recommended trying him with Shagny mares).

Statue of Liberty, a very well-bred horse who was at least a useful runner, winning the Coventry Stakes (gr. III), had at least shown the ability to get a high-class runner from his limited initial opportunities, and for a "breeder on a budget" the mating would seem to have offered a better shot than something more "vanilla."

re: Miss Steele - a case for a clever inbreeding

sceptre — Mon, 19 May 2014 20:51:59 GMT

jmcnatt:

Your last sentence-"Inferior horses with no running ability ONLY..." There's your error (fallacy). Your previous sentence in which you state:"...MIGHT be pooling..." is more accurate.

re: Miss Steele - a case for a clever inbreeding

jmcnatt — Mon, 19 May 2014 09:04:47 GMT

One thought- When inbreeding it might be critical that the individuals through which the inbreeding is being pooled as well as the descending ancestry line show the ability to RUN otherwise you might be pooling NON-RUNNING genes forward through inferior individuals going back to that great runner. Inferior horses with no running ability only have that quality to pass on if used in breeding designs.

re: Miss Steele - a case for a clever inbreeding

sceptre — Sat, 17 May 2014 17:05:06 GMT

You tend to avoid very close inbreeding when dealing with high-level stock. You seem to favor close inbreeding in trying to upgrade less expensive stock. It's been my observation that your "rule" (above) is indeed a proper course. But...it somewhat flies in the face of another dictum, i.e. inbreed through only top quality sources; avoid inbreeding through weak sources (ex. Miss Steele). So, at least on the surface, we see some "contradiction", but 1) is the operant point here CLOSE inbreeding?, and 2) could this (your) suggestion relate more to the "economics" of breeding (in that in may be more fiscally sound to breed for the "homerun" and "swallow" the EXCESS wastage)?...As you say, so many variables to contend with-so difficult to construct a meaningful study re-the pros vs cons of inbreeding.

re: Not Enough Data? How the Key Ancestors Report Gives a Breeder an Answer

Byron Rogers — Sat, 10 May 2014 15:43:54 GMT

I can't give you the most related to her but I can give you the mares that are most related that have produced stakes horses...

Mondra (15.24%)

Folly Dollar (15.04%)

Isle of Grey (14.94%)

Just One Head (14.84%)

Peruca Cross (14.75%)

Traipse (14.75%)

Lady Oxmoor (14.75%)

Di Machine (14.55%)

Destiny Now (14.45%)

Brandon's Ride (13.97%)

re: Not Enough Data? How the Key Ancestors Report Gives a Breeder an Answer

sceptre — Sat, 10 May 2014 13:35:00 GMT

Alan,

Please supply the list of broodmares whose pedigrees are most similar to Camemron's Buddy.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Pedigrees Examined

Alan Porter — Fri, 09 May 2014 23:40:06 GMT

Sceptre,

I don't think I really disagree much with what you said.

I was just trying to point out that the fact that Night of Thunder's fourth dam was a high-class performer is pretty much irrelevant at this point. After all, I don't think anyone would make a big deal about Mr. Prospector being in the fourth generation of the male line, since he appears in that position in literally thousands of horses, of all shades of ability.

The direct female line does transmit the mtDNA, but there is no reason to believe that Forest Flower (and her descendents) were markedly different in that respect from thousands upon thousands of other members of what would commonly be know as Bruce Lowe family #2 (assuming that the stud book record is correct).

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Pedigrees Examined

John T — Fri, 09 May 2014 03:13:45 GMT

Sometimes it happens that the direct female line has not

produced a good horse even to the fifth dam and then comes

along a classic winner like Night Of Thunder.If we take a closer look at that famous racehorse from many years ago,Pretty Polly she was not a good mother as a broodmare

and was very nervous with the result her offspring were inclined to be delicate when young.Her first two years at

the stud she was barren and in her third year she slipped

twins to the Derby winner Spearmint.It was a major disappointment that she bred only four winners herself but

her stud reputation has been ensured by the many glittering

successes won by later descendants.Those included Donatello

who was unbeaten in Italy and went on to sire the Gold Cup

winner Alycidon and the Epsom Derby winner Crepello,a top

class 2 year old,The Cobbler who went on to become a very successful sire in New Zealand and many others of distinction.So although we do not get the result we would

like to see from a broodmare like Pretty Polly and other

broodmares even back to the fifth dam the end result can be

very surprising indeed.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Pedigrees Examined

sceptre — Thu, 08 May 2014 23:48:39 GMT

Alan,

This is probably too involved to debate on this blog, but your last post gave me the sense (I could be mistaken) that we may disagree on some basics-re the genetic variability of the broodmare population, and its consequence. So, let me simply ask: Did you disagree with my assertions re-this issue?

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Pedigrees Examined

Alan Porter — Thu, 08 May 2014 18:10:36 GMT

Ann,

I'd say that there is a disconnect between the presentation of that data in a catalog (the logic behind which I would agree with you), and its likely genetic impact.

Since in genetic terms we are dealing with less than two handfuls of distinct female families, where (with potentially a few more modern mutations aside) the mtDNA is virtually unchanged for 30+ generations.

So, what the rise or decline of a female line generally really reflects is 1) the class of sire to which the mares from the family has been recently mated; the genetic affinity between the sires to which the family has been bred; the affinity of the nuclear DNA in the sires to the which the family has been bred; the potential inheritance of epistatic variants that hinder or facilitate the transmission of positive racing variants.

So if we take Night of Thunder, whose direct female line had not produced a good horse since the fifth dam, who produced Night of Thunder's own fourth dam, Champion Forest Flower, we might conclude: since Forest Flower was bred top-class runners (not all of whom succeeded as stallions), she was 1) just terribly unlucky (which given the number of her foals is probably not so); 2) was bred stallions that were a poor match for her nuclear/mtDNA; 3) or possessed epistatic variants that prevented her passing on positive variants for athleticism (or any combination of the three).

I'd suggest that the return to form of the family is primarily down to mating a high-quality sire (Dubawi) to a mare by a high-quality sire (Galileo) in a mating that was likely to be highly genetically compatible (the dam of Night of Thunder is by a son of Sadler's Wells out of a mare by a son of Green Desert, two highly positive "Key Ancestors" for Dubawi).

Chances are the 75% percent of the DNA inherited from Dubawi and Galileo (two of the top 5 or 6 sires in Europe) is way more important than anything to be found on the catalog page.

re: Kentucky Derby 140 Pedigrees Examined

sceptre — Thu, 08 May 2014 16:21:15 GMT

Pedigree Ann:

Yes, the tail-female portion of the pedigree tends to be least familiar and deserves relatively more "space" on a catalogue, etc. page. As I said earlier, it also can be the greatest "game changing" component of the pedigree. But, let's not kid ourselves, the space afforded it does distort its true significance, and very likely falsely influences the perspective of MOST individuals in the horse industry. This practice has been so embedded in their psyches-likely including your own- that its overreaching importance has become nearly a given. Consider the case of a lesser known dam sire-he's given virtually no "space"-, and his potentially negative influence is, psychologically, often ignored due to the page's layout..This tradition has fundamentally influenced our ability to rationally evaluate a pedigree. It's become so ingrained that we resist the thought of questioning it The true degree of distortion is somewhat mitigated by the fact that there is far greater variation in the broodmare-line than the male.