re: TrueNicks Reports Available for Kentucky Derby and Oaks Fields

Pat — Thu, 29 Apr 2010 23:50:33 GMT

I would like to now how a truenick can go from an A to D on the same breeding in just one year; on established stallions.

Ian's reply: Hi Pat, thanks for the inquiry. In general TrueNicks ratings are stable over time and require a series of significant events to move an "A" to a "D" or vice versa. The most likely scenario for what you describe is this: Take, for example, Oaks entrant Age of Humor (TrueNicks rated "A"). She is by Distorted Humor out of a Silver Deputy mare, but her TrueNicks rating is based on the Distorted Humor/Deputy Minister cross as there have not yet been either 15 starters or 2 stakes winners by Distorted Humor out of Silver Deputy mares. To make the rating more useful and statistically significant, TrueNicks rates how Distorted Humor has done with mares by Deputy Minister and his sons (including Silver Deputy). Eventually, however, once Distorted Humor has 15 starters or 2 stakes winners out of Silver Deputy mares, the TrueNicks algorithm will automatically look at this new, more specific cross. When a specific cross "branches off" from its parent cross, it often returns a similar rating, but it's certainly possible that it could behave differently. Theoretically, we could find that Distorted Humor does either better or worse with Silver Deputy mares relative to opportunity. In such a case, the new cross would rate higher or lower than the parent cross.