Alex's Early Offspring Looking Afleet

re: Alex's Early Offspring Looking Afleet

Cheryl (Alex'sBiggestFan) — Fri, 25 Jun 2010 22:59:58 GMT

Mr. Porter,

Great article about Afleet sires, and "my" Alex. I could have told you this years ago, Alex is unique in his own right and has a level to his athleticism that transcends the Afleet line. I saw it in him at age 2 so much so I had to sit down and write a letter to his owner, Mr. Zacney. I was there for Alex's Belmont and Afleet Alex Day Sept. 10, 2005 Delaware Park.

Alex will be as unique a sire as he was a racehorse, I knew it all along. And you stated it perfectly, he will become his own man as a sire. I had high hopes for Dublin, but Afleet Express seems to be more Alex. Northern Afleet made a phone call to Gainesway Farm after this year's Preakness. "Confound it Alex boy, where did my grandson think the Preakness is run, in the grandstand!!!" Steve Haskin, of Bloodhorse, told me that Northern Afleet was a more understanding grandpa than that! And we don't even know how great a racehorse Alex would have been, we were robbed of that by his injury and early retirement. Don't forget his mental capacity and awareness as well, Tim Ritchey trained Alex with unheard of "two-a-day" workouts. And Alex had a personality whereby he could stay in the detention barn for 10 hours, or "outside by the hotdog vendor in the heat for 5 hours" to quote Tim Ritchey and still win the Belmont!!! Yes sooner or later all roads lead to Mr. Prospecter, great title for a book, and Alex is just getting started. Alex, for all but one length, was a Triple Crown Winner. His Preakness acrobatics went down in history in SI as one of the most amazing animals. Cross Mr. Prospecter mares 100 times over, one day Alex is going to produce a champion. And Street Cry must be one hot sire, look at Zenyatta. That's Horse of The Year (Decade) no matter who wins the BC Classic.

re: Alex's Early Offspring Looking Afleet

Alan Porter — Fri, 25 Jun 2010 21:03:46 GMT

Hi Jose,

I don't have a hard and fast rule, but broadly close enough to be actually identified as the product of the same cross. I'd say something like within the third generation of the sire line, and third or fourth in the broodmare sire line.

With Afleet Alex, we're looking at Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer or Raise a Native/Nearctic, which is in the first and third or second and fourth generation of Northern Afleet.

Of course, Northern Dancer is a grandson of Nearco out of a mare by a Native Dancer, and Mr. Prospector is a grandson of Native Dancer, out of a mare by a grandson of Nearco, so they would fit the broad criteria.

re: Alex's Early Offspring Looking Afleet

Anthony Say — Fri, 25 Jun 2010 20:37:43 GMT

Afleet Alex, what a great horse and really does not get enough credit. No surprise he is passing along his talent.

re: Alex's Early Offspring Looking Afleet

jose y.quiros — Wed, 23 Jun 2010 02:34:16 GMT

hi alan. one quick question.with reference to parallel and reverse parallel inbreeding, how close and how far do these crosses have to be to possibly work ? best regards. jose

re: Alex's Early Offspring Looking Afleet

Robert — Tue, 22 Jun 2010 16:56:01 GMT

I always love it when a Belmont winner starts to show that he may just have the goods to be a top sire. Afleet ALex with his damsire being by Hawkster, an uncommon stallion, shows that he might just have enough outcrossed blood to mesh well with the broodmare population. Belmont winners have a special place with me as they usually have stamina and pass it along, but Alex's offspring also seem to have the speed to compete at the shorter races. Alex's offspring also seem to be eye catching individuals and looking the part is the first step to sales success along with racetrack success.

re: Alex's Early Offspring Looking Afleet

Alan Porter — Tue, 22 Jun 2010 15:31:30 GMT

Hi Chris,

It's actually quite logical, and a good reflection on the flexibility of the program that the rating can change in response to that win.

Northern Afleet, the sire of Afleet Alex, does not have a good record with Mr. Prospector line mares - only one stakes winner from nearly 50 starters - and that out of a Quiet American mare, from the untypical Fappiano branch. This would be in line with the fact that inbreeding through the sire line of the sire and dam is historically generally a low percentage cross (although there are patterns that militate against the negatives).

With that in mind, until there was evidence to the contrary, the cross of Afleet Alex over Mr. Prospector line mares was assessed on the basis of the Northern Afleet/Mr. Prospector cross.

The victory of Afleet Express means that Afleet Alex now has two stakes winners from 12 starters out of Mr. Prospector line mares (two from six out of mares by sonsof Mr. Prospector). With two stakes winners out of two distinct mares, he now satisfies the criteria to create rating based on the Afleet Alex/Mr. Prospector cross. Fresh evidence calls for a reassesment, and the TrueNicks program automatically made the reassement within in hours of the race.

This suggests that he may well work much better over Mr. Prospector line mares than did his sire. In fact on early evidence he seems to be suited by mares that reinforce the Mr. Prospector/Raise a Native/Northern Dancer/Nearctic strains in Northern Afleet.

re: Alex's Early Offspring Looking Afleet

Ian Tapp — Tue, 22 Jun 2010 15:15:12 GMT

Chris,

The rating for Afleet Express is different because the rating now reflects a more specific cross.

The reason is because TrueNicks doesn't rate a cross unless it has at least 2 stakes winners or 15 starters. Before the Pegasus, there was only 1 SW from Afleet Alex with Mr. P line mares, so TrueNicks rated Northern Afleet (and sons) with Mr. P line mares, which is a "D" rating.

Alan explains this phenomenon in the post above: "...in general, crossing a stallion back over a mare from his own immediate male line tends to give below opportunity results (although there are obviously exceptions). Afleet Alex’s sire Northern Afleet is a prime example, with only one stakes winner..."

As Alan indicates, Afleet Alex appears to be emerging as a good cross with the Mr. Prospector line (unlike his sire) as evidenced by Afleet Alex's now 2 stakes winners from fewer opportunities.

Therefore, the rating for Northern Afleet with Mr. Prospector line mares remains a "D", but since the Afleet Alex branch of this cross is behaving differently, TrueNicks now recognizes this as a specific cross.

As Alan says, "Afleet Alex...now has two stakes winners out of 12 starters from Mr. Prospector line mares, and two from six out of mares by sons of Mr. Prospector, suggesting that – on initial evidence at least – he can be considered for mares from this line."

I hope this answers your question.

Ian

re: Alex's Early Offspring Looking Afleet

chris — Tue, 22 Jun 2010 13:33:57 GMT

Alan, how can a Nick go from a D to an A++ with one stakes victory?? Afleet Express was a D rating when he went into the gate for the Pegasus....when he crossed the finish line he was an A++..that is "past-posting"...