Reader Challenge: A Strong Nick

re: Reader Challenge: A Strong Nick

Slew — Tue, 20 Jul 2010 13:45:01 GMT

I should have joined in the fray...I figured it was El Prado and referenced his colt Paddy O'Prado, but that was as far as I went this weekend.

re: Reader Challenge: A Strong Nick

Pedigree Shelly — Mon, 19 Jul 2010 23:13:54 GMT

Ian , I guess what I am trying to say is that you really make us think ! Which is good ! By the way do you have any headache remedies ? :)I've been going to the track since I was ten and I lost alot of money just by betting on the horse with the best bloodlines! It really doesnt help when your handicapping $5000 claimers ! I dont know why but , pedigrees always seemed to facinate me ! (hence my screen name ) I finally obtained my first broodmare last year ( Wasted Words by Honour and Glory )She had alot of potential , female family of Chris Evert and Chiefs Crown .Unfortunately due to financial situations , I had to part with her ! Hopefully the future will be brighter ! Thanks for letting me ramble on :)

re: Reader Challenge: A Strong Nick

Ian Tapp — Mon, 19 Jul 2010 22:23:09 GMT

refrain,

I agree that there are many ways of evaluating a nick, both with statistics or otherwise. I'd advise seeking out all available info, certainly consulting TrueNicks as a research tool, and using all data to make your own educated decision on a mating.

A good argument can be made for including stakes-placed horses, but then how much weight do we give a stakes-placed horse in the calculation?

Using a racing index would be quite fascinating, but such a figure starts to become subjective, and there is no international standard.

TrueNicks aims to leave the "class" interpretation to the breeder-- for example, an "A" rated cross for the $20,000 stallion level is not the same class as an "A" rated cross at the $2,000 level. Accordingly, the definition of "stakes winner" can shift from the highest level (Grade 1) to regional markets (state-bred restricted). A racing index or class rating does not shift in definition in such a manner. Evaluating a cross should be relative to the context of the breeding and racing environment.

If TrueNicks sought to tell you how well a cross did at producing horses of at least "100 racing index" (a nominal example), then we'd be infusing some class judgment into the rating that using a "stakes winner" threshold does not do.

Perhaps adding a supplementary racing index variant (but not replacing the SW calculation) could be a useful future enhancement for TrueNicks.

Ian

re: Reader Challenge: A Strong Nick

refrain — Mon, 19 Jul 2010 20:53:57 GMT

Ian,

Trying not to beat this to death, but please allow the following:

There is validity in much of what you said...I, though, would define a "nick" as a statistically verifiable affinity between two ancestors in a pedigree. Aside from the stated limitations of your program relative to sire placement (within a pedigree), there can be reasonable debate about the meaning/parameters of affinity. This, too, can essentially be answered by proper statistical analysis, but "proper", perhaps, is yet another wild card. Should, for example, Stakes Winner or stakes-placed be the foremost criteria or, rather, perhaps, a racing index (? combined/median/average), etc.? I tend to be in the latter camp, hence (albeit eyeballed) the reason for my answer and later comments.

re: Reader Challenge: A Strong Nick

Pedigree Shelly — Mon, 19 Jul 2010 20:41:36 GMT

My final answer was going to be El Prado and Prized because Paddy O'Prado won the Virginia Derby and Ian had mentioned that a graded race from this weekend was a clue ! Then I thought , that would be too simplistic ! ( Paddy O' Prado) Which meant I went searching for the wrong answer : (

re: Reader Challenge: A Strong Nick

Ian Tapp — Mon, 19 Jul 2010 19:29:40 GMT

refrain,

Thanks for your comments.

TrueNicks -- being a sire line nicking system -- doesn't account for Cure the Blues as sire of the 2nd dams of Rachel Alexandra and Gabby's Golden Gal. While it is interesting and of course should be noted when planning matings, evaluating a sire crossed with mares carrying a single ancestor (regardless of placement) is challenging from the standpoint of statistical significance.

Indeed, of 4 starters with Medaglia d'Oro and Cure the Blues appearing 1x3, all 4 are winners, 3 are SW, and 2 are G1SW. However, El Prado and sons crossed with mares by Cure the Blues and sons, while still an A++ cross, has only one graded/group winner -- Golden Century.

While the presence of Cure the Blues in Rachel Alexandra and Gabby's Golden Gal is encouraging, Medaglia d'Oro -- still a young sire -- has only one stakes winner from a Hail to Reason line mare (Cassidy's Pride), and none through Roberto. In time, I'd expect Medaglia d'Oro to have plenty of success with Hail to Reason and Roberto line mares given the success El Prado has had.

I termed this El Prado/Prized cross a subset of El Prado/Roberto, but it can also be thought of as Sadler's Wells/Kris S., or El Prado/Hail to Reason, etc. Note, however, that both G1SW on El Prado/Hail to Reason are through Roberto.

I probably used the word "already" because I think Paddy O'Prado will soon become the third G1SW from El Prado/Roberto. His tractability and continued improvement bodes well for the Secretariat S., Turf Classic, and BC Turf.

I'd be curious to get Alan Porter's take on El Prado/Roberto, and what may or may not be going on. My tentative conclusion would be to strongly consider Roberto line mares for sons of El Prado, as long as other factors (conformation, mare's produce history, racing performance, inbreeding, etc.) supported the mating.

Ian

re: Reader Challenge: A Strong Nick

refrain — Mon, 19 Jul 2010 17:01:51 GMT

Ian,

In order to eliminate (hopefully) some confusion from my last remarks- There is also some ambiguity in your use of the word "subset". Would, for example, an El Prado-Prized mare cross (you said-"this specific cross") be also considered a "subset" of the strong nick (Medaglia D'Oro-Cure The Blues or Hail To Reason-line mares) that produced Rachel Alexandra and Gabby's Golden Gal?

re: Reader Challenge: A Strong Nick

refrain — Mon, 19 Jul 2010 16:08:00 GMT

Ian, this proved to be a very enlightening puzzle. Your Socratic-like method serves us well. The accepted answer, El Prado-Roberto line nick seems to be rather potent and, must admit, one I hadn't noticed before. Just goes to show that you can always teach an old dog new tricks-and underscores the value of the TrueNicks system. Acknowledging all this, I'm still not certain which is the better answer to your Question,-the El Prado-Roberto line nick, or the Medaglia D'Oro- Cure The Blues line nick, or the Medaglia D'Oro-Hail To Reason line nick. (my records indicate that the latter two also produced two G-I SWs). The Medaglia D'Oro-Cure The Blues sample is relatively small, but has been exceptionally successful. Also note that El Prado (Medgalia D'Oro's sire) has done well with Cure The Blues. Medaglia D'Oro has also done quite well with non-Roberto Hail To Reason-line stallions. This all gets a bit complicated re-the best answer to your puzzle vs the best lesson learned from it. Which, in reality, is the better answer, and which is the better (truer) nick? Re- your question, you state "has Already produced two G-I winners". Well, the Medaglia 'Oro-Cure The Blues-line has caused G-I winners of more recency than the El Prado-Roberto line (again, what is best to infer from your word "already"?). On the other hand, using this Medaglia D'Oro-Cure The Blues line nick as further evidence (there is a lot more) one must ask-what is the more potent nick-the Medaglia D'Oro-Cure The Blues, or the Medaglia D'Oro-Hail To Reason, or the El Prado-Roberto, or the El Prado-Hail To Reason, etc.? Inherent in these nicks analyses is root causation. For example, it is possible that Roberto's female line is merely tagging along for the ride and may not offer, in reality, any substantial positive contribution to the perceived nick. Conclusions derived from such questions could have consequence in planning future matings.

re: Reader Challenge: A Strong Nick

brentlex — Mon, 19 Jul 2010 08:16:20 GMT

El Prado and Prized, a cross that produced Paddy O'Prado.

El Prado with Roberto line stallions produced Kitten's Joy G1(Lear Fan) and Asi Siempre G1(Silver Hawk).

re: Reader Challenge: A Strong Nick

Irish Eyes — Mon, 19 Jul 2010 06:30:35 GMT

El Prado and Prized are the two pictured from the Sadlers Wells and Roberto cross...Asi Siempre and Kittens Joy are the two Gr 1 Winners.

re: Reader Challenge: A Strong Nick

Flynne — Mon, 19 Jul 2010 02:19:32 GMT

My guess would be El Prado/Kris S.

re: Reader Challenge: A Strong Nick

Pedigree Shelly — Sun, 18 Jul 2010 23:54:54 GMT

I have a few I came up with ,but I'll say that Stallion #1 is El Prado and the 2nd is Bailjumper ? That cross produced Medaglia D 'Oro . Northern Dancer x Damascus cross maybe???

re: Reader Challenge: A Strong Nick

Karen — Sun, 18 Jul 2010 22:28:28 GMT

1st stallion: El Prado

2nd stallion: Prized

cross of them: Paddy O'Prado

two grade 1 winners: Singspiel, Sligo Bay

Nick: Sadler's Wells/Hail to Reason

I got El Prado, but I needed the hint to get Prized.

re: Reader Challenge: A Strong Nick

yaboydem — Sun, 18 Jul 2010 16:09:15 GMT

El Prado & Silver Hawk

Runner = Asi Siempre

re: Reader Challenge: A Strong Nick

russf — Sun, 18 Jul 2010 02:17:47 GMT

Your clue suggests that the mystery horse is Paddy O’Prado. Then it’s Prized who’s pictured here along with El Prado, and the broader cross would be Sadlers Wells over Kris S, or Sadlers Wells over Roberto. As best I can determine, neither qualifies. The first has produced just one G1 winner, 2008 Australian Derby winner Nom Du Jeu, while the second has produced many more than two.

El Prado over Kris S and Sadlers Wells over Kris S are excellent crosses, both earning a True Nicks score of A++. But no G1 winners are reported on the True Nicks reports for either cross.

re: Reader Challenge: A Strong Nick

refrain — Sun, 18 Jul 2010 00:07:31 GMT

Change 2nd stallion to Prized, and change only runner bred = Paddy O'Prado. Nick now should be Medaglia D'Oro with Hail To Reason-line mares ( or, closer up-Cure The Blues-line mares). Medaglia D'Oro appears to be doing exceptionally well with Hail To Reason-line mares. The two Grade-I SWs are the same.

re: Reader Challenge: A Strong Nick

Ian Tapp — Sat, 17 Jul 2010 23:04:53 GMT

Many have identified the gray stallion, but the dark bay is proving more difficult. Who saw today's graded stakes racing?

re: Reader Challenge: A Strong Nick

RT — Sat, 17 Jul 2010 23:01:43 GMT

Top - El Prado

Bottom - Lear Fan

Nick - Sadlers Wells/Roberto

re: Reader Challenge: A Strong Nick

russf — Sat, 17 Jul 2010 12:52:53 GMT

The stallion in the photo below El Prado may be Top Ville. I say “may be” because I have been unable to locate a photo of him to confirm. But El Prado and Top Ville satisfy the criteria, so I’ll go with them.

El Prado is by Sadlers Wells, and Top Ville – winner of the 1979 French Derby - is a son of High Top. What a cross! Of the 73 G1 winners sired by Sadlers Wells, six of them are from mares by High Top or his son, Top Ville. The Sadlers Wells/Top Ville cross (True Nicks A++) is responsible for four G1 winners, including Yeats and Montjeu. The Sadlers Wells/High Top cross (True Nicks B) produced the multiple G1 winners Kayf Tara and Opera House.

Despite the success of this cross, only one runner has paired El Prado with Top Ville. Little Miss Pamela is by El Prado, and her dam is by a daughter of Top Ville. Foaled in 2000, she won three times from eight starts, including wins in a couple of minor stakes races.

re: Reader Challenge: A Strong Nick

refrain — Sat, 17 Jul 2010 03:40:40 GMT

Here goes, Ian, but I think you may have me this time.

1. The two stallions: El Prado (it appears to look like him), American Chance (really not sure).

2. Golden Century (but incorrect unless American Chance is correct)

3. Rachel Alexandra and Gabby's Golden Gal (but only if above is correct)

4. Nick= Medaglia D'Oro with Cure The Blues

Would feel more certain about this if 2nd photo is indeed American Chance.

re: Reader Challenge: A Strong Nick

Kathy — Fri, 16 Jul 2010 20:06:32 GMT

Holy Bull and Stop the Music--Giacomo.

re: Reader Challenge: A Strong Nick

Anne — Fri, 16 Jul 2010 19:22:04 GMT

I think the 2 stallions are El Prado and Big Spruce.