Poll: The Bluest of Bluebloods

re: Poll: The Bluest of Bluebloods

secretariat — Wed, 13 Oct 2010 22:30:24 GMT

smart strike/storm flag flying filly have

the potential to have superior size and

speed are great potential for the x factor

are great the best sires ever are in

this pedigree

re: Poll: The Bluest of Bluebloods

sceptre — Wed, 18 Aug 2010 02:43:45 GMT

Dave,

Your inability to fully comprehend some portions of my post is likely not due to any failure on your part. My writing skills are somewhat lacking, and I felt the need to cram too much into a small space. It was written unedited, off the top of my head, and a later post-posting re-read proved unsatisfying. I should have explained it a bit better with more elaboration.

Hope your colt heals well, and is given ample time for a full recovery (preventing his need to compensate).

re: Poll: The Bluest of Bluebloods

dave york — Tue, 17 Aug 2010 23:51:11 GMT

Sceptre

I am not endowed with the genectic material to totally comprehend exactly what your last was intended to communicate. Most of your last was enlightening and helped me reconsider how I should approach my input. I believe that most all breeding theories are the results of statistics, examples and theories that can be manipulated to serve the theory of the author. History of our country or even the world since the existence of mankind is often manipulated. I find it remarkable when different offspring of the same mare appear on opposite sides of the pedigree of successful thoroughbreds. It could be coincidence or there could be a real statistical advantage [albeit a very small statistical advantage] to designing a mating that results in an RF. I can't prove it and no one can but I believe there is a better chance when you mate to get and RF than not. Being a small time breeder [typically two foals a year] I get to enjoy the discussion and I am hopeful others do as well. This is a grand sport with so many variables. My best two year old in ten years just crashed into the rail during a work. Luckily the laceration did not penetrate the abdomen wall and we believe he will fully recover after 20 metal staples and a few internal stitches. SO MANY ups and downs in this game. I want to breed one good one before I run out of cash. Stay tuned because if I ever get a good one I will readily admit is was 90% luck with a lot of help from above and the result of great care from those horsemen who put their heart and soul into the care and training of the thoroughbred.

re: Poll: The Bluest of Bluebloods

sceptre — Tue, 17 Aug 2010 04:53:14 GMT

I see where Ian has directed Ms. Stich back to this blog re-her added comments on the RF (I suspect she was hoping that Alan would agree with her position "...more often than not..."). Dave and Lauren seem essentially to be in the same camp, whereas Byron and myself are somewhat less enthusiastic about the RF Factor's value.

Let me say that time and space here can't give adequate justice to this debate-there are just too many related topics to consider. Also, anecdotes tend to prove nothing, although Racing, in general, seems to survive by this technique (a little bit of positive data can inspire those with less perspective)...Mr. Rasmussen was a student of the breed-he had perspective. His columns were my favorite reads on the Morning Telegraph/DRF. He OBSERVED what he later labeled, RF, and I early on observed it as well. But time, study, and reflection have left me with much skepticism as to its value. I doubt there is, or will be, any statistical study that would change my mind. Again, anecdotes are certainly meaningless...A horse possessing the RF would be inbred to superior females through different sources. Let's refine it a bit to read: inbred to superior producers through different proven positive sources. I say this, because should the source, or sources not be positive, all else equal, there's a better chance than not that the eventual offspring wouldn't possess a reasonable amount (whatever that is?) of the genes which made this RF female so desirable. Another issue (of the too numerous to discuss here): Ex.- all else equal, why is it preferable to have a, let's say, double Lalun (i.e. inbred to Lalun), over a similar pedigree wherein one of those two Laluns is substituted for a Mumtaz Mahal (in same position), etc.? This question touches upon the supposed virtues of inbreeding. Another point: Let's assume that both sources for the RF female are positive. They, however, may be positive for "reasons" totally other than the influence of the RF female (here in single form). This is meant to suggest that the decendants of the RF female may owe their "positivity" to the genes acquired from other sources in their pedigrees-that it could well be that their (genetic) "brand" of the RF female is largely devoid of the genetic material that initially caused its greatness. I realize this can be postulated for any mating, be it an RF one, or not, but it speaks somewhat to the complexity of this issue, and warns against taking such an optimistic stance re-RF matings. Consider also why there isn't such fervor over inbreeding to any particular stallion-ever. I'm one who readily admits that the absolute finest genetic material is likely contained within the female population (it's simple mathematics, as a far greater proportion of the female population is retained within the breeding population). Identification of those "ultra-elite" females is, however, another matter. It's entirely possible that none were/are identified as RF Factor females. What I'm suggesting is that even a *La Troienne may not, in reality, be among those that are genetically superior to all males...As I said, this is a large topic. I've merely touched upon a few morsels for thought.

re: Poll: The Bluest of Bluebloods

dave york — Mon, 16 Aug 2010 22:14:58 GMT

Brogers/Sceptre

There is no magic single source of breeding success. The RF factor produces more than a statistical share of stakes winners than the average. There are plenty of successful RF matings. How much success has been generated in crossing Halo, Northern Dancer and Raise the Standard? How has Quiet American performed as a stallion? QA is a stellar broodmare stallion. Why is this? How about Unbridled as a stallion and a runner? How about Danehill? The list goes on and on. The success of sons and daughters of RF mares and RF Stallions is also an interesting study. I agree that this is not a magic sure fire breeding theory. I simply believe that too much credit is given to stallions and not nearly enough credit is given to the mares and you should go 6 or 7 generations deep to get a real feel for matings that produce the top class runners.

re: Poll: The Bluest of Bluebloods

Byron Rogers — Mon, 16 Aug 2010 19:56:11 GMT

Dave,

I think that you are confusing "superior" with "any" and even in the case of the loosely defined "superior", as I have discussed with Eight Carat above, this doesn't mean that inbreeding to her alone (and it is a long bow to stretch to say her alone contributed to the success of the horse) equates to success.

Let's look at Concord Point. Given that both Relaunch and Moon Glitter were pretty good racehorses and Foggy Note was a good producer we should, at least by your definition, see a lot of stakes winners inbred to Foggy Note.

What is more reason to see this is that Relaunch sired his own (admittedly dwindling) sireline, Moon Glitter established a foil with significant sire descendants Glitterman, Rubiano and Tapit and even the other half sister Belle O'Reason gave us the modest sire Chimes Band. With enough branches established, you would think that inbreeding to Foggy Note would be found everywhere in various recombinations of Relaunch/Glitterman/Rubiano/Chimes Band/Tapit. Alas you are going to be disappointed.

By my count there are only 4 stakes winners inbred to Foggy Note - Concord Point, Bow Tie Pasta, Good Response and Redreamit. Two of these stakes winners are by Tapit. It may interest you that Tapit has 10 foals of racing age by mares carrying Relaunch in their pedigrees; of these, five have started (all winners) and two are stakes winners: Concord Point and Redreamit, winner of the 2009 Twin Lights Stakes at Monmouth.

But this all gets back to my first point. Saying that Concord Point is successful because of his RF is a long bow to draw and even if it was, in the case of Foggy Note it is only under particular circumstances (i.e with Tapit when combined with Relaunch) which makes widespread commercial application of RF theory across all horses with Foggy Note in their pedigree difficult to achieve and from a genetic inheritance standpoint tenuous at best.

re: Poll: The Bluest of Bluebloods

sceptre — Mon, 16 Aug 2010 19:50:24 GMT

Dave York-

Byron doesn't need to do more studying about the RF (stats) rather, you do. Take a closer look at their "evidence"-note that they are not comparing "whole populations" to "whole populations". Even if this were the case, it wouldn't necessarily "prove" the validity of your RF "assumption"-there are other variables to consider.

re: Poll: The Bluest of Bluebloods

dave york — Mon, 16 Aug 2010 18:27:38 GMT

brogers,

You ought to do some studying. Just recently, Concord Point and Position Limit are RF. The statistics are from archives of rasmussen studies.

re: Poll: The Bluest of Bluebloods

monkfish1 — Mon, 16 Aug 2010 16:50:29 GMT

ITapp,

I think you're right, the Zenyatta/Rags to Riches Factor is the most compelling reason that that pedigree is getting the most votes. But I also think that is a very legitimate factor. I am nowhere near a student of pedigree as most folks on this blog are, but I do know that both mares were/are amazing runners and could become great producers in their own right. I guess I'm looking more at recent runners. That and I am biased toward Zenyatta. And I loved Street Cry as a racehorse. I'd put the Smart Strike - Storm Flag Flying second.

Monk

re: Poll: The Bluest of Bluebloods

brogers — Sun, 15 Aug 2010 20:15:53 GMT

Dave,

Where are you getting these figures from? Our experience with RF is that it is far from absolute and relies heavily on particular mares in particular positions with particular sires for success above the norm.

Eight Carat is about as good a mare as you can get as far as a producer and there are 186 foals inbred to her within 4 generations and only one stakes winner (Obsequious).

Byron

re: Poll: The Bluest of Bluebloods

dave york — Sun, 15 Aug 2010 02:23:43 GMT

If you are breeding by using statistics, everybody would be breeding to get a Rasmussen Factor. The RF foal has a 2.3 times better chance of getting a stakes winner than a non RF foal. Females often add more to a foal than does the Stallion. And if you have a double dose of goodness from a mare, you get far superior results on average than if you count on the stallion to pass on superior talent and class. Into Mischief might bear watching as a stallion because of the many dynamic mare influences in his pedigree.

re: Poll: The Bluest of Bluebloods

sceptre — Sat, 14 Aug 2010 01:53:55 GMT

Hi Ian,

I'd guess about 5 out of 7 become winners. Since we're guessing, I'd say the Empire Maker-Hasili would be the least likely winner (it's a filly, Juddmonte's not commercial, and they'll be careful with this one)-but, at least, it's already lived to 2...All this (previous comment) from one who loves to buy older mares...Take a look at the stats for Keeneland sale toppers through the years-relative to graded stakes winners. Why should these seven have any better chances?

re: Poll: The Bluest of Bluebloods

Ian Tapp — Sat, 14 Aug 2010 01:23:12 GMT

sceptre,

Yes -- Why is actually a filly -- it was her third start. Didn't mean for the maiden win to insinuate greatness, justing adding it as an FYI.

What do you think the over/under is for the seven horses in the poll becoming winners? 3.5? 4.5?

re: Poll: The Bluest of Bluebloods

sceptre — Sat, 14 Aug 2010 00:06:25 GMT

Ian,

The Galileo-Rumplestiltskin colt did, in fact, break his maiden yesterday, but that was his 3rd start.

re: Poll: The Bluest of Bluebloods

Ian Tapp — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 23:15:23 GMT

Arlen,

You're right, we'll have to follow these horses through their racing and breeding careers and see how they turn out, ...and we'll see if sceptre is right and none of them win a graded stakes.

FYI, the Galileo-Rumplestiltskin colt has a 2yo full sister called Why who won her maiden yesterday at Leopardstown.

re: Poll: The Bluest of Bluebloods

Pedigree Shelly — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 23:07:08 GMT

The Urban Sea colt is the one I chose ! Urban Sea is one of the best broodmares of recent times ! Her progeny includes excellent sire Galileo by Sadlers Wells and the European Horse of the Year Sea The Stars by Cape Cross, plus My Typhoon by Giant's Causeway and others ! Better Than Honour is another broodmare that will be hard to duplicate ! Two classic winners in a row ! Urban Sea just never seems to throw a bad horse !

re: Poll: The Bluest of Bluebloods

ITapp — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 19:53:31 GMT

monkfish,

I feel like your choice is getting votes mainly due to the Zenyatta/Rags to Riches factor. Is that enough to make it the most impressive pedigree of this group?

I would say both Hasili and Urban Sea are better producers than Better Than Honour.

re: Poll: The Bluest of Bluebloods

Arlen — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 19:53:14 GMT

Hasili. That is it.

So, you will keep this in the hopper and we will get a report 12 months, 24 months..on the results of this "contest"..breeding takes years..decades..you are on the line now. Don't tease us. It is not like we can get the results of the crossword puzzel in next weeks' addition. YOU started this!

re: Poll: The Bluest of Bluebloods

monkfish1 — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 15:12:44 GMT

Street Cry - Better Than Honour

Do we really need to explain.....?

re: Poll: The Bluest of Bluebloods

Ann in Lexington — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 14:37:03 GMT

Last first: This one is a 3/4-sister to G1 winner Manhattan Rain. The dam beat colts in the San Domenico S (only G3, but a spring classic trial of some note) and ran second in the G2 Light Fingers, a fillies' classic trial. The second dam not only foaled Manhattan Rain but the top runner and ubersire Redoute's Choice; she is a 3/4-sister to multiple G1 winner He's No Pie Easter. The female line is one of the strongest on the planet, that of Best in Show. Sire is a proven top class getter of SWs. This must be the first foal out of the dam, but one could reasonably expect she would be a runner, barring accidents. The downside is it seems to be oriented towards precocity and shorter distances; Manhattan Rain did not progress following his 3yo spring, and Redoute's Choice was best at a mile or less.

That said, Hasili is the sort of mare whom one could "breed to the teaser and get a SW." At least if the teaser had Danzig close up. Empire Maker's Northern Dancer is of a very different sort; the classic distance type El Gran Senor. Would it work out as well as the Danzig type?

Getting too long, more later.

re: Poll: The Bluest of Bluebloods

ckroger — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 13:27:39 GMT

Street Cry x BTH is going to be a plodder? SC sires every type of runner on every surface. Also, the Mineshaft x BTH won a G2 at 9 furlongs and G1-placed at a mile.

The amount of graded/group horses under the entire female family going back decades for Hasili makes her the winner hands down.

re: Poll: The Bluest of Bluebloods

Slew — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 12:51:31 GMT

PS-of the listed pairs-Urban Sea's foal!

re: Poll: The Bluest of Bluebloods

Slew — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 12:49:23 GMT

So sorry...I'm not as enthused about any as I am about Take Control...by AP Indy out of Azeri. Now, that's a blueblood! Hope he gets back to the track soon; I understand he's finally back in training after an injury. His debut was amazing!

re: Poll: The Bluest of Bluebloods

Zen's Auntie — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 05:45:24 GMT

I like the Storm flag Flying Filly I'll take a filly as close to PE as I can get thanks very much. SFF is a nice Phenotype and I really Like some of Smart Strikes kids in looks - LAL looks really good lately. Even if she isnt herself a star with a filly like this you could build from.

With that Said its the Street Cry Better then H filly next - BTH is a strong up hill mare and I do Love Zen's Daddy - a filly like this will need time to develop

re: Poll: The Bluest of Bluebloods

The Deacon — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 05:29:14 GMT

Anything by Street Cry and Better Then Honour gets my vote. Rags to Riches, Zenyatta...nuff said. Oh, throw in Street Sense as well.