Battle of the 30-Something Stallions

re: Battle of the 30-Something Stallions

Byron Rogers — Tue, 30 Nov 2010 23:23:11 GMT

Ranagulzion...."Stallions that have Secretariat as the broodmare sire of their sire or grand sire are likely to be successful producers."....really?

For every Storm Cat, AP Indy, Gone West and Summer Squall there is a Secreto, Dare and Go, Lion Cavern and Boone's Mill. Having Secretariat as your broodmare sire wasn't a magic passport to sire success.

re: Battle of the 30-Something Stallions

larry — Tue, 30 Nov 2010 04:48:37 GMT

Lookin at Lucky won both the two year old championship and the three year old championship but so did spectacular bid and he was a bust at stud standing at claiborne farm. Blame will not sire good two year old horses . quality road is my pick of the four . But it might be another horse altogether standing in florida for 5 thousand just like kris S , how many picked congrats? So many of the best horses are duds in the breeding shed there is every reason to question why any of them are being retired at all given the overall market conditions .(WE NEVER SEEM TO LEARN IN THIS GAME) Heres saying zennyata should be kept in training as well, as she along with rachel alexandra will both flop at breeding good horses.

re: Battle of the 30-Something Stallions

Ranagulzion — Tue, 30 Nov 2010 04:38:54 GMT

Stallions that have Secretariat as the broodmare sire of their sire or grand sire are likely to be successful producers. Quality Road, a grandson of Gone West and Eskendereya, a grandson of Storm Cat are lkely to be the most successful on both the track and in the sales ring. I can't tell if the breeders see it like I do, hence it is hard to predict which one will get the best book of mares. Looking At Lucky has the pedigree, conformatin and performance record to throw Classic type horses, with Mr Prospector and Northern Dancer fairly close up in his pedigree, therefore he should do well with some amount of inbreeding to mares with Mr Prospector and Northern Dancer in their pedigree. The only doubt lies in the fact that Smart Strike has not yet proven to be a sire of sires (as a late blooming sire it is still not too late for him to show this trait). Blame is the greatest risk of being a successful sire because the Hail to Reason line is harder to predict and quite inconsistent in throwing champions.

Eskendereya and Quality Road are more than worth their stud fees based upon their sublime talent and the fact that they are bred-in-the-purple individuals on the Dam side (plenty of top class stamina and surface versatiliity). Esky is a bargain, given that he was arguably the best 3YO colt of 2010 and could have been a triple crown winner if not for injury.

re: Battle of the 30-Something Stallions

Freetex — Tue, 30 Nov 2010 00:51:21 GMT

Lookin at Lucky with just one more year of racing would seal the deal about his brilliance as a sire. I know, its not happening.

What is happening are younger sires and therefore more and more unwanted horses. What a business.

There must be older champions. Stakes races with high purses for older horses may be the only way to turn the tide of early retirements.

Sad, very sad.

re: Battle of the 30-Something Stallions

Tony — Mon, 29 Nov 2010 05:54:39 GMT

who was voted champion 2 year old good enough to be just as good as a 3 year old (Looking At Lucky) should get a top book of mares.not taking anything away from blame or eskendarya or quality road, nonetheless he's my choice....

re: Battle of the 30-Something Stallions

tklawless — Mon, 29 Nov 2010 04:42:05 GMT

I think Claiborne may have to twist the arms of some of their old time clients, as a son of Arch, even with his record won't excite many.....Lookin at Lucky may have been the best of a bad crop or just really unlucky (probably a little of both).....Eskendreya was brilliant over a very short period of time......the winner by process of elimination is Quality Road.

His brilliance was unquestionable, up to 1 1/8, and he was arguably even better at a mile (+/-), he ran against the best in the best races overall and also people tend to believe miler's make the best sires. If not for his 2 BC Classic fiasco's, he'd be touted as one of the best of the last decade or so, at the very least.

re: Battle of the 30-Something Stallions

hts001 — Sun, 28 Nov 2010 23:36:47 GMT

As a breeder I believe the answer is a mute point. All 4 will be supported with some quality mares. The real unknown is how well they will translate the opportunities they do receive to racetrack success with their respective off springs. I would question why anyone would go to any of the four when there are good proven stallions that sell well at the same or cheaper prices. Tale of the Cat and Harlans Holiday come to mind

re: Battle of the 30-Something Stallions

katethegreat — Sun, 28 Nov 2010 18:39:32 GMT

Blame has the pedigree and connections.

re: Battle of the 30-Something Stallions

Rowner — Sun, 28 Nov 2010 16:54:20 GMT

Except for Eskendereya, I wish the rest were racing next year especially LAL I don't think we really got to see what he was capable of yet. I think Blame will get the best book of mares to start off with the others will have more to prove. I agree with the person above about stud fee's only Blame seems worth the price.

re: Battle of the 30-Something Stallions

JerseyTom — Sat, 27 Nov 2010 22:25:44 GMT

I like the way you quantified "best"--that may not be known for several years. ... Still love Quality Road's potential despite BC performance; strong cruising speed at a distance. ... Blame's consistency at a variety of distances up to 1 1/4 miles impressed me a great deal.

re: Battle of the 30-Something Stallions

Barb — Sat, 27 Nov 2010 19:41:48 GMT

I think it will be close between Blame and Quality Road. Quality Road because of his brilliant speed. Blame because he won graded stakes from 8.5f to 10f, never finished off the board in 13 starts, remained sound throughout his career, and beat the best of the best. But I don't think either will be especially popular among those looking to breed a precocious 2-year-old.

I find Lookin at Lucky and Eskendereya highly questionable and wonder if other breeder's will feel the same.

Lucky was the best of a very mediocre crop. He had neither brilliant speed nor proven ability to get 10f. I suspect those looking to breed to an unproven son of Smart Strike will consider Curlin to be a better gamble.

Eskendereya looked great in two 9f races against questionable competition, then retired unsound. Nice pedigree but there's better choices for breeder's looking for nice pedigree.

re: Battle of the 30-Something Stallions

AnneM — Sat, 27 Nov 2010 04:22:31 GMT

I guess the question I would like to ask is why are these horses retiring so young? I understand that Eskendereya was injured but the others seem to be healthy and have not really raced all that much. It would be nice for the fans and the betters to have these stars continue racing. It is not like the gene pool needs them right away....

re: Battle of the 30-Something Stallions

sixtyplus — Fri, 26 Nov 2010 14:20:26 GMT

Murray, I think your comments are right on. A shame Looking at Lucky will not race at 4. The breeders are slowly but surly killing the sport by rushing the promising horses to the breeding shed. All of the pundits who bemoan the demise of racing have only to look at Zenyatta and Goldicova to see that the sport can still generate excitement and a fan base if it gives its stars a chance to build a following.

re: Battle of the 30-Something Stallions

Carol — Fri, 26 Nov 2010 13:10:39 GMT

Many different opinions which is excellent. You never really know where a good horse will come from and having versatility with breeders using different stallions is, I believe, the best way to go.

Having said this, I think Blame will get the best book of mares, not because he is better than any of the others, we can't possibly know that yet but the phrase 'traditional horsemanship' associated with Claiborne is very important to me.

re: Battle of the 30-Something Stallions

secretariat — Fri, 26 Nov 2010 04:26:21 GMT

Eskendereya&lookin at lucky have

diversity in their five generation

pedigrees when it comes to sires

so their is more potential for them to

sire a dominant horse the best chance for

that to happen in order 1 eskendereya

2 lookin at lucky 3 blame 4 quality road

re: Battle of the 30-Something Stallions

sceptre — Fri, 26 Nov 2010 04:12:48 GMT

Candy Ride, Kris S., Raise A Native, Danzig, Nureyev, *Turn-To, Alibhai, Graustark, Hoist The Flag, Forli, Lord Gaylord, *Nasrullah, Teddy, The Tetrarch , St. Simon (all just from memory), and the list goes on...So, quess what all have in common--they raced 10 times or less (many, much less). Didn't seem to hurt their ability to become influential sires.

As to Slew's comments- Why even mention that you "doubt" any of the four "30-something stallions" would be mates for Zenyatta (this year)?.. And, as far as "pronounced limitations", how's for starters having Arch as its sire?

re: Battle of the 30-Something Stallions

Murray — Thu, 25 Nov 2010 19:47:36 GMT

I wonder if perhaps a very pertinent question at this juncture is which of these horses can justify a $30,000 stud fee? Without doubt each colt has shown form at various times which suggested exceptional racing ability, but there are so many things to factor in for consideration when attempting to justify such fees. In my opinion, and I realize others might totally disagree, only Blame has warranted standing for such a fee. We have to remember the lessons we should have been learning from sales these past years. The offspring of these colts will be offered as yearlings in Sept of 2013. Almost 3 years hence how will each be perceived by prospective buyers? Which offspring will be assessed as potential classic horses? Which as sprinters or at best milers? Which offspring might be viewed with a jaundiced eye when potential buyers think beyond brilliance and consider soundness and durability. From the breeder's perspective, whose offspring will achieve a median sale price of $60,000 plus, in so doing give the seller, at that price, the possibility of breaking even when considering cost of upkeep, sales prep, vet., etc, etc. Most certainly a few will sell exceptionally well, but which of these horses will sell well enough to offer a majority of breeder's a chance to make a profit at the sales or, and this is how we should all be thinking as breeders, withstand the rigors of training and racing well enough to give a reasonable hope of racing success? Brilliance with a five race career really accomplishes nothing other than promote the exchange of funds while perpetuating breeding for unsoundness and continued breed deterioration. ie you buy my unsound, 5 race wonder, send him to the shed, I breed to him, etc, etc. It has to stop, for the good of the American Thoroughbred as a breed, for the welfare of breeders who are struggling to stay afloat, and for the good of racing which is struggling to survive.

Eskendereya, brilliant five race wonder, winner of one G2 and one G1, defeats Jackson Bend twice, Aikenite, and Awesome Act, nice horses but hardly top class. $35,000? No, but at around $10,000 he might be worth the money.

Quality Road, unquestionably brilliant, but did not show up when it counted. Defeated by Blame at Saratoga in a race he had all his own way (24.41, 48.06) yet could not withstand Blame's finish, then absolutely trounced in the Classic when challenged to run realistic fractions, being done after 3/4 mile. Twice failed to stay the American classic distance. $35,000? No. How about $10,000 - 12,500. At that price he's worth accepting his limitations and try to build on his brilliance.

Lookin At Lucky, a really nice horse, and one who definitely should stay in training if we are to know what he is really all about. this colt looks like he might really have the package, but in his only two atempts at 1 1/4 ,iles came up short. Throw out the Derby where he had no chance, but in the Classic he hooked up with Blame with 3/16ths to run, went with him for a few strides, then really was blown away by Blame (which again speaks very highly of Blame), fianlly to be passed also by Z and another 3 year old, Fly Down. I really thinnk he has the package. he's durable, courageous, runs on all tracks, and just met up with a very, very good older horse in Blame, gave his all then gave way. Next year i see him getting the distance...but he's retired so who can know? $35,000? No, but worth more than the others above, maybe $15,000 -20,000.

Blame. The total package for my money. Sound. Durable (not a lot of races but never missed a beat in training for 1 1/2 years). Classic pedigree from a stallion producing female line, bred to run all day and likely would have loved the turf if given the opportunity. Proved, without a doubt, that he stays the classic American distance, and likely longer. Demonstrated tremendous courage in several hard fought finishes. $35,000? You bet. Worth every penny of it if you have the right mare.

Just my thoughts. Happy Thanksgiving to all.

re: Battle of the 30-Something Stallions

Lmaris — Thu, 25 Nov 2010 17:28:31 GMT

Depends on how you define "best". If best = biggest, then it will be Lookin' at Lucky since Ashford tends to over-breed their stallions with far less eye to quality of mare or whether the mare is a good fit for the stallion. Much more of a scatter-shot approach than targeted. May prove to be better offspring in the long run but will have to weed through far more dogs to find the runners.

Blame's offspring won't likely be as precocious which is a good thing, IMHO. His book will be smaller and have more Claiborne mares, but again, these are lines for soundness and longevity. Since his book will be more limited in regards to outside mares, for 1st year maybe ranks lower on the "best" list.

Quality Road's babies will likely be more precocious than Blame's and while he is a 2-turn horse was still suspect at classic distances. The mares sent to him will be chosen accordingly. I suspect he will receive the best mares based on the race quality of the foals they've already produced and the race records.

Eskendereya's mares are more of a question, in my opinion. Since his connections are more focused on the yearling sales ring and the absurd maturity demanded by buyers of these horses (they look like 3-4 year olds now instead of the very immature babies they are) precocious-producing mares will be favored. Some consider those mares the "best" because they return their investment quicker.

re: Battle of the 30-Something Stallions

Slew — Thu, 25 Nov 2010 14:33:00 GMT

I was thinking that the true class lies with Lookin At Lucky. In the long run, I think he will have the best book.

I doubt any of these, however, will book Zenyatta, and who ever books her will be top dog. ( I think it will stay with AP Indy) If it were me, Bernardini would come in way ahead of all these rookies. As far as these new sires, only Blame would impart stamina for the distance run. The rest seem to have pronounced limitations. (QR, while gorgeous, won't get distance; Esky broke down; LAL simply had too many unexplained fevers.)

re: Battle of the 30-Something Stallions

don — Thu, 25 Nov 2010 14:08:44 GMT

Of the above Stallions I think Quality Road will be the most successful. He was brilliantly fast and carried his speed around two turns. He's the type of horse that has the potential to outsire is own ability. I think many are thinking too much about his last race in the Classic where he performed so poorly but that race should not be the measure of his siring ability. Blame was all out at Saratoga to get passed him the last 80 yards and Quality Road was really not sharp at all that day.

re: Battle of the 30-Something Stallions

Rachel — Thu, 25 Nov 2010 12:37:06 GMT

Eskendereya, of course (not my pick, though).

He has early brilliance and that's all that's wanted...plus he was injured early enough in his career so you can always use the ole' "if"....

I always think you should breed to the horses who retired early due to injury...it's so much better for the gene pool.

re: Battle of the 30-Something Stallions

Chris — Thu, 25 Nov 2010 04:57:19 GMT

I would imagine that Blame will get the better book of mares judging by the fact that quite a few Breeders cup winners have done very well for themselves at stud.I am simply taking this route because the others have nothing to stand on. QR by Elusive Quality hasn't proven that his offspring can do anything at stud,likewise L at Lucky. We are all waiting to see what Curlin can do and Eskendera by G Causeway has same to prove.

re: Battle of the 30-Something Stallions

skyfire — Thu, 25 Nov 2010 00:20:24 GMT

I believe that Looking at Lucky wlll be the most successful stallion of the group. He is the only one who was a top two year old, raced on successfully in the classics at three (and in my opinion would have been a champion next year), and retired sound.

He will generate alot of income, should be commercially successful with his first foals, and should have two year olds that can ensure success immediately. Coolmore made Giant's Causeway, and LAL should be another winner for them.

re: Battle of the 30-Something Stallions

Pedigree Shelly — Thu, 25 Nov 2010 00:01:01 GMT

I chose Quality Road because of the brilliance he showed on the racetrack and his popularity . Blame will get an excellent book of mares as well ! I love the fact that Claiborne limits the books of their stallions . I think it benefits the stallion and the quality of the foals ! Lane's End is a state of the art facility ,and I know they will do right by Quality Road ! By the way , May everybody have a safe and Happy Thanksgiving !! Horses too :)

re: Battle of the 30-Something Stallions

Flora — Wed, 24 Nov 2010 21:07:02 GMT

I think it will be close between Blame and Eskenderaya, with E's pedigree being a big factor. Plus, he has it all the others in the looks department.