What's in Your Mare's Stocking?

re: What's in Your Mare's Stocking?

Todd Lieber — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 22:03:39 GMT

I have a question about interpreting some of the different sets of statistics available in the enhanced true nicks. As an exampale, I nicked Scat Daddy with two of my mares. The first mare is an A nick (3.06 variant) based on 7% stakes winners for the rated cross as opposed to 2% and 5% stakes winners for the sire line with other broodmare sire lines and the broodmare sire line with other sire lines respectively. The percentage of starters from foal is 69% compared to 55%/63% and the percentage of winners from foals is 66% compared to 34%/46%. All encouraging numbers. The nick with the second mare was, on the surface, even better -- an A++, with a whopping 34.29 variant, based on 12% stakes winner compared to 3%/4%. However, the other numbers suggest a less than average chance of success for this cross, with only 46% starters compared to 61%/73% and 31% winners, compared to 37% and 49%. For a breeder with rather modest means and modest stock, raising a durable racehorse with a better than average chance of earning his keep might be a more realistic goal than raising a stakes winner. For such a breeder, would it not be wiser to pay more attention to the comparative figures of starters and winners than to the figures for stakes winners on which the cross is rated? Any thoughts about interpreting the interaction of these different sets of statistics?

re: What's in Your Mare's Stocking?

Ian Tapp — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 01:08:45 GMT

Filippo,

Good question. The TrueNicks rating/variant score does not have a set stakes % assigned to it; the rating is relevant in the context of the sire and broodmare sire in each mating.

If you knew, for example, that Sire X gets 5% stakes winners, and BroodmareSire Y also gets 5% stakes winners (as a broodmare sire), then you would expect 5% to be par for their combination. If the TrueNicks variant is 1.00 (C rating), which is average, then you could infer that 5% stakes winners is how the cross has performed.

However, if the TrueNicks variant is 2.00 (B rating), which is 2x average, then you could infer that 10% stakes winners is how the cross has performed.

You can see how the strength of the sire or broodmare sire can alter what the expectation of the cross might be. With the same mare, you would expect a lot more from a "C" rated A.P. Indy than you would from an "A" rated cross of a low quality stallion. The "C" is average for A.P. Indy, but certainly above average for the breed.

Hopefully this answers the question. Post again if you have more thoughts.

Thanks,

Ian

re: What's in Your Mare's Stocking?

Filippo Santoro — Thu, 16 Dec 2010 23:56:46 GMT

I have a question rather than a comment. Is there a numerical percentage associated with each letter rating in terms of percent of stakes horses that can be expected from a prospective mating? For example if a mare mated with stallion X gets a rating of A and the same mare mated with stallion Y gets a rating of A++ and if, hypothetically, the A rating is associated with 10% stakes horses is the A++ rating associated with 15 or 20% stakes horses? If such a numerical association with each letter rating exists would be good to know. Thanks.