re: Interpreting a Nick Rating

Byron Rogers — Sun, 16 Jan 2011 23:38:43 GMT

Todd,

I can't quite come to agreement with Avalyn's summation that the nick has been "inconsistent". In the case of AP Indy with Quiet American mares, the issue that Alan and I raised above is at play. Of the 15 horses bred on the cross, 5 of these are 2009 foals who have just turned two so we can hardly expect them to show us anything just yet as two year old racing has yet to commence. A further 6 of these are current three year olds and include two stakes winners already in Astrology and Dance Quietly and with their classic year to come this year. So 11 of the 15 horses bred on the cross are yet to pass their classic year, let alone mature as older horses. I would be surprised if there was not at least another two or three stakes winners to come in that group of 11 foals.

The cross of course remains a very, very good one and it is clearly going to be tried a lot more as AP Indy closes out his career so we are going to see a lot more representatives in years to come. Will the cross maintain the current 27% clip of SW to foals? Probably not. But for Quiet American mares there will be few better options than AP Indy and as AP Indy proved quite potent with Fappiano mares, we suspect that a son of AP Indy will emerge that will suit Quiet American mares and sustain this nick into another generation.

Byron

re: Interpreting a Nick Rating

Todd Lieber — Sun, 16 Jan 2011 17:04:22 GMT

Byron and Alan: Thanks so much for your lengthy and very helpful responses. If I may, I'd like to pursue a further question about the use of these newly available statistics and comparisons. In addition to possibly indicating soundness, might one also use them to indicate the consistency of a given genetic combination? We all know of certain crosses that have the potential to produce a few top horses, but also many "duds." Avalyn Hunter's comment on the AP Indy/Quiet American cross in last week's Bloodhorse "pedigree profile" is an example. She writes: "The A.P.Indy/Quiet American cross that produced Dance Quietly and Bernardini has been inconsistent but very successful when it has clicked; of the five winners from 15 foals so bred, four have been stakes winners and the fifth (Dance Quietly’s full brother American Dance) is grade II-placed." This nick describes exactly the situation I was asking about in my previous blog, since here the percentage of stakes winners far exceeds the comparative figures, but the starters and winners to foals ratios seem to be below average.