Derby Threat: Uncle Mo

re: Derby Threat: Uncle Mo

Don — Sat, 07 May 2011 19:46:10 GMT

Seattle Slew is the King of race horses. He may rate second to Secretariat, but Slew was the King. He is said to be the most complete race horse ever. And if you look at what he did and how many great horses he sired, Seattle Slew is the King who has created his own royalty. A fairy tale like history, doubted by the snobs, but unconquerable as a race horse and proven as a Champion Stallion. Died 25 years to the day he won the Kentucky Derby, on May 7th! He is the King when you look at his history and great feats, his linage stands as the greatest sire of racehorses. Seattle Slew the King, was also called, The Dark Knight of racehorses.

re: Derby Threat: Uncle Mo

JCranston — Sun, 20 Feb 2011 04:21:24 GMT

Finally we have a race horse that can win the Triple Crown '

'UNCLE MO" Get readt and go for the GUSTO!!!!

re: Derby Threat: Uncle Mo

Mike from Ossineke Michigan — Sat, 12 Feb 2011 07:20:05 GMT

go ahead, laugh at me now, but my derby horse is Sequoia Warrior.

re: Derby Threat: Uncle Mo

zrtyk — Sat, 12 Feb 2011 06:00:47 GMT

Uncle Mo has too many middle distance influences to be taken seriously at 10 furlongs. Indian Charlie, Dixieland Band, Althea and Danzig. A sloppy track might help.

re: Derby Threat: Uncle Mo

Slew — Sat, 12 Feb 2011 00:14:44 GMT

Jason...Not over analyzing anything. I always watch a horse's stride on the track, and his attitude when he's eye to eye with a competitor. Uncle Mo is undoubtedly fast...no arguments. But for how long can he maintain his speed pounding the dirt as hard as he does. Will he stay sound? Machen was held back, and had to check several times, almost running over the horses in front of him. Only when he broke through did he take off quickly. Uncle Mo has never been in that position...behind horses. What if he is? Sorry...you are under-analyzing. 20 horses...anything can happen in the bumper car Derby. Wasn't your pick last year Odysseus?

re: Derby Threat: Uncle Mo

sceptre — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 22:23:38 GMT

jamie d, pedigree ann-

Believe me, I'm not ridiculing anyone for believing that Halo was a better sire (as of '83, or now) than Indian Charlie. I was aware of the facts you offered-before making my initial post. There are other relevant facts, however, perhaps those that you are not privy to. I tried to offer some and I believe (if you're interested) thorough research might just change your minds-but not all reality can be found solely through printed words and stats. It reminds me of what I've said before- there's simply no good substitute for following racing closely. All easy for me to say, and I'm aware that my words here neither prove, nor offer much evidence for my contention (re-Halo vs Indian Charlie). My guess is that many of those who were then/now students of the sport-had followed racing closely during all those years- would agree with me. While we're on this tangent, I'd like to point out something else. A while back I offered the opinion that Secretariat on whole was damaging to the breed. I came by this because I felt that Secretariat (at stud) "wasted" many years of the highest quality broodmares. I mention this again now, because I feel that similar, albeit to a lesser extent, can be said for Devil's Bag. This all said because some reading this blog may come away (through inference) with the notion that Devil's Bag is an influence to "cherish"-this, to me, would add insult to injury, given that I believe he had already "wasted" years of breeding quality of many of our better/best mares. You see, this blog causes one to focus on a Devil's Bag-to marvel at his exemplary pedigree, his overall race record (lost but once), his championship year, etc. There has also been reference to his sire's accomplishments at stud and, perhaps, some overenthusiasm about Halo's racing abilities. A bit more on Halo-He was certainly royally bred, in particular his dam was among the greats of her era (and considered as such well before her "nephew" Northern Dancer made his impact at stud). But Halo was one of Cosmah's lesser lights as a performer-despite what some stats might tell you. Tosmah was her true masterpiece-up til that time the most talented filly I'd ever witnessed-, and Father's Image was also more talented than Halo. Maribeau's career was abbreviated, but I considered him also superior to Halo. Tosmah, with her talent and pedigree (Tim Tam was a wonderful broodmare sire and royally bred) might well have become a cherished name in pedigrees today-a source of superb quality, perhaps not unlike a Mumtaz Mahal, but her broodmare career was essentially wasted due to misinformed (and or egotistic) owners. I respond to some of these blogs mostly in an attempt to prevent mistakes such as what befell Tosmah. It is directed not so much at the fans of this sport (and bloodlines), but to those who may be in a position to shape the breed's future-people like Ian who have the obvious talent, and because of this the later connections and audience to make a difference.

re: Derby Threat: Uncle Mo

cuban chef de race — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 21:08:53 GMT

i do not remember how many AP Indy sons and grandsons have ran in the Kentucky derby but i think they have been quite a few,the closest to win was aptitude by AP Indy out of a northern dancer mare and second dam was alluvial by buckpasser what a breeding.now forget the Preakness if bernardini as nice colt as he was do face barbaro in that one derby he was going to see the derby was not the Preakness,and the other AP Indy blood last year ice box the pace was made for him had a belmont winner and a k.d winner tabasco cat and alysheba plus derby winner spend a buck's dam in third dam the only knock was the 6 weeks brake ,the last nasrullah line to win?a filly winning colors and she was as brilliant at 3 as uncle mo was at 2 they want ap indy to revive this line and did forget to breed good mares to less popular nasrullah line stallions.that is my opinion .i do feel tapit has a more balance pedigree to sire a derby winner then bernardini with pulpit-unbridled-nijinskyII,speed,class stamina.

re: Derby Threat: Uncle Mo

jamie d — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 19:59:27 GMT

sceptre i think you are off when you think indian charlie was a better stallion than halo in 83 compared to now. he just had a kentucky derby winner and one of the favorites in devils bag.he eventually had another derby winner in sunday silence and some derby runner ups. i think even if mo wins he will never be as regarded as high as halo. granted indian charlie had to work for his mares. but halo has produced winners on both sides of the pond.his legacy can still be seen from thru japan and south america to this day.

re: Derby Threat: Uncle Mo

Mr.G — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 19:44:37 GMT

I love all the great analizings of Uncle Mo. Nice horse, but I always analyse the Kentucky D three weeks before the race.

All you very smart guys know that the more info you have to process the better your chances of coming up victorious.

re: Derby Threat: Uncle Mo

sceptre — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 18:39:31 GMT

Pedigree Ann-

I just read your follow-up post (posted before my reply (to you)). I grant that Halo was a good, perhaps very good, stallion. I don't agree that, back in EARLY 1983 he was regarded as well as Indian Charlie is today. One need not look further than a review of their stud fees 1983/2011 relative to their peers--this all said, because you seem to be using the-how well they were "regarded" card-in making your argument. When I stated (in my first post) that one could argue that Indian Charlie is a somewhat better sire than was Halo (then)-it was said because I believe it, and believe a good argument could be made in support. As far as what others may believe, I think that relative stud fees (1983) and auction records (1982/2010-relative to prices of their day) might shed some light. Just from memory, haven't done any research, but I think it'll bear me out. Yes, Halo as a racehorse had a better staying resume than did Indian Charlie, but Indian Charlie had demonstrated that he was more than just a miler and, perhaps more importantly, was the more talented racehorse. I do not grant that Halo as a sire was appreciably better (for his day) at siring staying stock than is Indian Charlie (for today). Perhaps more importantly, Halo received a better quality book of mares for his crops leading to the birth of Devil's Bag than did Indian Charlie leading up to Uncle Mo's birth...Now lastly (for now), I'll offer an opinion that which likely no one will agree-I'd say odds are that Indian Charlie was more talented than Uncle Mo, and is a better stallion than will be Uncle Mo (of the latter, many will agree).

re: Derby Threat: Uncle Mo

sceptre — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 17:37:59 GMT

Pedigree Ann-

Firstly, I suppose one should assume that your comments about Bold Ruler is way of analogy to Uncle Mo's sire, Indian Charlie. Fact is back then the inability of the Bold Rulers to win at 1 1/4M against top company (a different "breed" of top company as compared to now) was far more apparent than is the case with the Indian Charlies (against today's "breed" of top company). I also doubt that the "*Nasrullah temperament", in Bold Ruler's case, had much to do with it. For example, (and there were many), Derby favorite and 2 yr. old Champion Bold Lad was not, as I recall, a headstrong type (nor was his full-brother Successor). The Derby's 10 furlongs was just simply beyond his scope-relative to the more distance loving types of that day. This relative lack of capacity has as its cause(s) many more factors than mere temperament. I am aware of the stories about *Nasrullah's temperament, and how it compromised his racing career/and ability to go longer. "Temperament's" manifestation, though, unlike those of many other genetic phenotypes is fairly apparent. I don't recall noticing/reading/hearing back then that it was the temperament of the Bold Rulers (they two generations removed from *Nasrullah himself) which played a significant role in their relative inability over longer distances. All too often (particularly as it relates to thoroughbred breeding) a single piece of data is "enlarged" to explain outcomes where more often their causes are multiple...Lastly, re-your point about Halo vs Indian Charlie. I do feel that Halo was a good sire, but truth is I consider Indian Charlie the better-comparing total careers to total careers (and opportunity). I'm sure that many/most would disagree, but that's how I see it. Incidentally (and as an aside), the fact that Halo served smaller books than an Indian Charlie is not relevant to your position-book size as it relates to these two stallions is relative to their day. It is just as difficult, if not moreso, for a stallion to sire a Champion, or major SW, today as it was back then.

re: Derby Threat: Uncle Mo

Ian Tapp — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 17:24:06 GMT

Uncle Mo is from his 9th crop, but yes, your points are well made.

re: Derby Threat: Uncle Mo

Pedigree Ann — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 17:18:39 GMT

Halo was leading North American sire in 1983 and that wasn't all Devil's Bag and Glorious Song. His first crop arrived in 1976 and Devil's Bag was in his 6th crop. Indian Charlie's first crop arrived in 2000 and Uncle Mo is in his 10th crop. Indian Charlie has never ranked higher than 16th on the general sire list, even with BC race winners. I still contend that Halo was more highly regarded as a sire, and particularly as a sire of staying stock (he did win the UN Hcp and the Lawrence Realization, after all) in 1984, than Indian Charlie is today.

re: Derby Threat: Uncle Mo

jamie d — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 15:40:50 GMT

a derby winner can come from anywhere. i dont doubt that mo is a great horse and is very freakish. but with twenty horses in the field alot can go wrong. the best horse loses probably 9o percent of the time. go back and check the average field size in the 70s and you will be surprised that that number is no where near twenty.i think the derby is a jockeys race. that race is won by alot of human judgement and there lost by it to.if mo loses a prep race that will be the end of the derby dream.i think pletcher will win it just with a little less known horse.just my opinion ,yall keep arguing your point.

re: Derby Threat: Uncle Mo

Ian Tapp — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 15:30:15 GMT

Pedigree Ann,

The pedigree/sire comparisons are relative to when these horses were entering their 3YO seasons. Sunday Silence, Goodbye Halo, Jolie's Halo, etc. hadn't been born yet, so you couldn't have used them as a gauge for Devil's Bag in 1984.

I agree with Sceptre; you could make the case that Indian Charlie in 2011 is a better sire than Halo was in 1984.

Ian

re: Derby Threat: Uncle Mo

Pedigree Ann — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 15:02:49 GMT

People who doubted a Bold Ruler could win the Derby had history on their side; for a decade and more, champion and SW sons of that stallions had regularly disappointed in May. They may have won at 10f or more later in their careers, but they weren't ready to do it at Derby time. Temperament, mostly. Secretariat had no 'Nasrullah temperament' to betray him, but many fans, like me on the West Coast, who hadn't seen him live, wouldn't know that.

Sceptre, if you think Indian Charlie is a better sire than Halo was, you better go back to class. Aside from Canadian HotY and US champion Glorious Song, Halo got HotY Sunday Silence, Kentucky Derby winner Sunny's Halo, CCAO & KyO winner Goodbye Halo (the filly who was lapped on Winning Colors and Personal Ensign in the BC Distaff), Jolie's Halo (GP and Donn Hcps), etc. How many times has Indian Charlie been leading North American sire? Halo did it twice. And he was doing it with the 40-mare books which was the norm back then; Indian Charlie's crops average over 70.

re: Derby Threat: Uncle Mo

English Handicapper — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 09:45:05 GMT

What a great debate---Having been a UK based pro gambler for 35 years and seen every B Cup(attended 5) plus many of the very Best USA horses, this discussion has a number of points that maybe an outsider can make best. With several mares in Kentucky and Ireland the breeding comments do not pass me by though to these eyes getting the extra distance at Louisville seems more likely than not based on his last win.

The Derby is a rough race that takes no prisoners and is run at a frenetic pace which sorts out the men from the boys. Depending on what requirements each individual horse needs with running style etc etc there is no doubt that NO participant has ever ran in a race like it until the big day itself no matter how many trial he has had. Luck in running and stall position as we know can be vital while off this frenetic pace we have seen some horses come from last to first with a brave mans ride.

That said Uncle Mo is unaware of all this and there is little doubt his 2010 achievments are top drawer with the times similar to S Slew and Devils Bag as has been illustrated here. Although I do not like to compare times of a differing day the fact that Mo did a 3 second faster time that the fillies race the day before tells me something as does the trainers comments. On the day itself in the GB market place Victor Chandlers firm were 13-8 (sorry for archaic British fractions) about Uncle Mo while the other firms (a lot of them) went between 9-4 and 5-2 a massive difference. The Chandler firm were spot on and since Michael Tabor owns around 95% of this Gibralter based offshore operation, one might percieve that he himself (Todd Pletchers biggest client?) was involved in that at the time under odds decision. Mo deserves his position in the Derby market that is undeniable whether or not punters take the 4/1 on the futures is up to the individual same as buying a pair of shoes or liking blondes or brunettes. Me ----I am a big fan of the best young horse America has seen for decades and I hope he trains on and thrills the racing public----we need it.

re: Derby Threat: Uncle Mo

cuban chef de race — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 05:03:56 GMT

well,dialed in will run all day but after the owner put him on a horse trailer,with that running style he will see the Berlin wall in front of him,too late to smell the roses.

re: Derby Threat: Uncle Mo

cuban chef de race — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 23:16:21 GMT

tapizar is from family 8-d that has never in 136 years produced a Kentucky derby winner but the great bold ruler sire of the best secretariat,i want to see to honor and serve in a fast pace race to measure him better.

re: Derby Threat: Uncle Mo

dave york — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 23:05:36 GMT

If someone could come up with the average number of starts that Indian Charlie gets from all of his male and all of his female runners, I believe this could be an important fact when predicting how Uncle Mo will fare in the brutal triple crown trail. Class, breeding, raw talent, racing luck and the quality of the ride are all important but durability is not mentioned as often as it should be.

re: Derby Threat: Uncle Mo

TKLawless — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 21:58:32 GMT

Devil's Bag was the best 2 yo I ever saw (didn't see Seattle Slew in person)....when he won the Champagne under a hold everyone thought the time had to be wrong....new stakes record under NO urging at all, even Slew got a couple of licks around the eight pole....Plus, Woody was a lot bigger talker than Billy Turner, so DB may have been a bit more 'hyped' than Slew early in his career....No question Uncle Mo is a very nice horse, too, ('great' is way over-used) and it will be interesting to see how his road to the Derby progresses.

I have a sneaking suspicion Uncle Mo may be 'found lacking' through either his sire or the fact they are only planning 2 prep races before the Derby (yes, I know that's been the preferred training pattern recently, but those weren't Indian Charlie's)....he would maybe be able to overcome one or the other, but probably not both.

re: Derby Threat: Uncle Mo

Jodie — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 21:44:03 GMT

What worries me the most about Uncle Mo, is that he is trained by Todd Pletcher. He does not have a good track record in keeping a horse healthy to run for the triple crown.

re: Derby Threat: Uncle Mo

cuban chef de race — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 21:43:27 GMT

well experts in my opinion if uncle mo do not win the derby having a stronger pedigree then his own sire who did finish a close third ,who is going to win? dialed in? to honor and serve?,tapizar? soldat? okay masters i will show you what is no to have a breeding hole in the first three dams,i see you in my winning circle.

re: Derby Threat: Uncle Mo

Ian Tapp — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 21:14:50 GMT

Cuban,

Thanks. The reason I didn't mention Saint Ballado is because he wasn't born when Devil's Bag was a 3YO. The references to Seattle Slew's and Devil's Bag's pedigrees were as they appeared when those horses were beginning their 3YO seasons. Notice I didn't mention Lomond and Seattle Dancer for My Charmer either.

As Sceptre noted in his comment above, this blog is about "the similarities between Uncle Mo, Seattle Slew and Devil's Bag at end of their 2 yr. old year."

Ian

re: Derby Threat: Uncle Mo

cuban chef de race — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 21:04:58 GMT

ITapp you show every report in a very professional way and i do admire that because it can help me to remember a forgotten though.now when i see the example table i just remember three things i am not sure the distant was the real problem for devil's bag,you did mention glorious song his full sister but not his also full brother saint ballado who had no seasoning to run in Lil a tee's derby but ran a beyer of 117 at AP in a gradeII race at 9 fur. as a three year old and did sire capt.bodgit who won the wood memorial then ran 2d in the KD to silver charm and the h.t.reason line particularly the devil's bag family had history of physical problems i do not think it was distance the problem he had, i do see the same year devil's bag was out of the derby a colt by Seattle slew name swell his stable mate won the derby for him with same trainer mr woody so Claiborn farm went to the derby winner's circle anyway .