TrueNicks Reports for Top Derby Contenders

re: TrueNicks Reports for Top Derby Contenders

billfromwa — Tue, 03 May 2011 18:38:27 GMT

IF.....this horse takes to the surface, I think he has a great shot. Animal Kingdom's pedigree is one of the best in the group to get the distance, and, he is still learning the game. I expect a big jump in performance if he handles the dirt.

Bill

re: TrueNicks Reports for Top Derby Contenders

Ian Tapp — Tue, 03 May 2011 18:24:33 GMT

Hi jpd,

Thanks for your inquiry. Here's a brief explanation from our FAQ page:

"The TrueNicks rating is a score that reflects the degree of affinity between the sire and broodmare sire (or sire line and broodmare sire line) of the subject horse or hypothetical mating."

An "A++" rating represents a cross that has produced stakes winners at a much higher frequency compared to expected (variant = 1.00) of sire and broodmare sire. "C" ratings are approximately average, or in line with expected opportunity.

Visit our FAQ page for more.

re: TrueNicks Reports for Top Derby Contenders

jpd — Tue, 03 May 2011 16:24:12 GMT

just wanted to know what the ratings mean for instance whats the difference between a++ and c.

re: TrueNicks Reports for Top Derby Contenders

ron woodring — Sun, 01 May 2011 22:30:44 GMT

ian, thanks for the info, i think it can help some betters to fill out their trifectas, and superfectors, if they can't pick that extra horse for the last entry. we will see next saturday nite if the nicks are money makers.

re: TrueNicks Reports for Top Derby Contenders

Alan Porter — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 14:57:45 GMT

Dr. Samurai

Re the comments about the Kingmambo/Sadler's Wells cross. Although it has been one of the most productive in recent times in terms of the number of high-class runners, it's percentage of stakes winners is not particularly high when you consider the achievements of the sire and broodmare sire with other crosses. In fact the last time I checked, the Sadler's Wells mares bred to Kingmambo had improved Kingmambo's stakes winners percentages (so had helped Kingmambo), but Kingmambo had sired a slightly lower percentage of stakes winners from those specific Sadler's Wells mares than had all other stallions. Given the success rate of Kingmambo and of high-class Sadler's Wells mares, a slightly above average (here in the region of 25%) chance of improving on already excellent figures is not to be sniffed at, especially given the quality of the best runners on the cross, but particularly for Sadler's Wells mares, there are other sires that offer a better strike rate than Kingmambo.

This did raise a point worth noting: I believe what frequently happens when a cross works early on with a prominent stallion and a commonly available broodmare sire/broodmare sire line (as with Kingmambo siring El Condor Paas out of a Sadler's Wells mare) is that it starts becoming a default option, and is employed with much less regard to the individuals involved than when the initial crosses were made. Examples might include Unbridled's Song with Storm Cat mares (and no SW from mares by sons of Storm Cat, I believe), Tiznow/Storm Cat (although the cross with mares by sons of Storm Cat is better), and More Than Ready and Danzig/Danehill line mares. This is where it's important to interpret the statistics - which is particularly easy with the TrueNicks enhanced report - and if a specific sire (rather that a more generic deeper cross) has a number of high-class winners out of mares by a broodmare sire, or a specific broodmare sire line, then that mating is well worth bearing in mind, if careful consideration is given to the individuals involved.

re: TrueNicks Reports for Top Derby Contenders

Byron Rogers — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 21:25:29 GMT

Drsamurai,

For what it is worth the last two Kentucky Derby winners - Super Saver and Mine That Bird - were A+ rated before the Derby.

However, one of the more interesting aspects that Ian has alluded to is using the Enhanced report to make more informed decisions.

One of the biggest questions we have each year, if not the biggest, is "will the horse get the distance?" Very few horses are actually capable of getting the distance. With the TrueNicks Enhanced Report the average winning distance of the horses bred on the cross are stated which is a really useful piece of information.

Master of the Hounds actually has the highest average winning distance of colts bred on the cross - 10.76 furlongs - so from a distance perspective he should love every step of it. This statistic has to be tempered a little by the fact that the bulk of the horses bred on his rating race in Europe where races at 10f+ are more common than in North America, but from a handicapping viewpoint you would have to stick him in your exotics, despite his TrueNicks rating. The same applies to Animal Kingdom (10.40f), with the same caveat on European racing in his pedigree. The next three best on average winning distance of colts bred on the same cross are Brilliant Speed (9.45f), Midnight Interlude (9.13) and Jaycito (8.50f) - all of whom race as if the 10f distance will really suit them.

While I wouldn't discount a horse whose similarly bred relations could only manage an AWD of around 7f, I would be putting a line through Watch Me Go (6.17f) and J P's Gusto (6.25f). Last year there was a horse that was trained to perfection, got a beautiful ride and ran his eyeballs out but came to the quarter pole and could find no more - Noble's Promise - the average winning distance of colts bred on the same cross for him - 5.91f.

re: TrueNicks Reports for Top Derby Contenders

Ian Tapp — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 19:03:08 GMT

Absolutely correct, drsamurai. Data and stats are tools to aid in making decisions, not for blindly doing the job for you.

Master of Hounds is a prime example. The strike rate of stakes winners to starters is only slightly better than expected, but the best horses on the cross are exceptional. It pays to note what the stats are telling you. This is why the 2nd page of data points in TrueNicks Enhanced reports helps put the nick rating in proper context.

Ian

re: TrueNicks Reports for Top Derby Contenders

drsamurai — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 18:52:00 GMT

Master Of Hounds is a C+? The combination is a Goldmine 20/20 with multiple pages of over 20's. It is a Rasmussen to Special. I'll take that over any A++ you can find. If Henrythenavigator and El Condor Pasa are mearly better than average, I look forward to seeing Kingmambo's really good runners.

Before I get a lecture on the meaning and proper usage of Nick ratings, I realize their purpose and the fact that they are only one of many tools. My point is that as useful as a screwdriver is, it is not always the best tool for every job. Sometimes you just have to throw it back in the toolbox and look for a hammer.

re: TrueNicks Reports for Top Derby Contenders

Ian Tapp — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 17:36:08 GMT

LOL, Nancy. If only it were that mindless. Nick ratings aren't describing the quality of the racehorse, but rather the success rate of the cross that the horse is bred on. "D" matings can produce top racehorses, but the frequency of this happening is lower. Nicks help the breeder identify breeding trends when planning matings.

Take Shackleford's example, he's a nice horse, but the cross he is bred on--Storm Cat and sons/Unbridled--has only 2 stakes winners from 151 starters. This is why the cross is rated "D".

Master of Hounds is rated "C+", which is better than average (average = 1.00 = C) for Kingmambo/Sadler's Wells, meaning the combination actually improves the strike rates of Kingmambo as a sire and Sadler's Wells as a broodmare sire. Those are two pretty stellar stallions, so being better than their average is certainly saying something.

Ian

re: TrueNicks Reports for Top Derby Contenders

Nancy — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 17:18:56 GMT

Someone should notify Shackleford and Twinspired that they don't belong in this company, particularly after both of their brilliant performances last time out. And don't bother shipping Master of Hounds to the states; he is clearly out of contention. Just another example of the preposterous idea of placing too much weight on the nick for breeding.