Sadler's Wells Line Dominant in Classic Trials

re: Sadler's Wells Line Dominant in Classic Trials

MurrayK — Fri, 20 May 2011 09:53:04 GMT

I own an unraced 3-y-o gelding bred on similar lines to Frankel being by a son of Sadler's Wells, Aristotle, from a mare by Danehill's brother Eagle Eyed, he is showing lots of promise in training, speed also. He is also related to Recital, the 2nd favourite for the Epsom Derby, as his dam is the same family as Recital's, who actually has another line through Tennyson 2nd dam sire of Montjeu. I have been following both horses with much interest here in Australia.

re: Sadler's Wells Line Dominant in Classic Trials

sniper1 — Tue, 17 May 2011 17:55:23 GMT

I know that happens--as a clocker at Woodbine for years (and back-up odds maker for the program there) I saw two superior horses they tried to make go 1 1/4 La Prevoyante and Afleet for excellent examples were superior to their competition but you just couldn't make them stretch out to win the Queens Plate @ 1 1/4. Both had leads in the stretch and folded. Afleet was much superior to his foes and actually had a good trip--his second generation removed won a classic at 1 1/2 miles and a number of others go long---which proves the oddities of the breed.

In recent history though I have seen a nice horse called Get Stormy win at distances a touch too far, as one he is game, and two they tend not to challenge the horse early and he puts them to sleep. I am of the camp that thinks a good 6F horse can win at longer distances if he is in with lesser horses on many occasions. On a personal level I owned one horse I claimed as a 6 yr old that had never been raced over 6 1/2 until that point--he had won the majority of his races @4 1/2f and 5f--2 races and easy wins at 1 1/16 and 1 1/8 after the claim he was claimed off me- both wire to wire--When he got too high in class after he folded going long although he remained useful in shorter distances at the higher price. The thought is ---at a level where he was much the best he could still win at a distance more than his best.

I just have not seen a horse that I thought could beat Frankel even at 1 1/2. He seems special. I would like to see him try but I don't own or train him--their decision not mine.

re: Sadler's Wells Line Dominant in Classic Trials

Alan Porter — Mon, 16 May 2011 20:45:09 GMT

Hi Sniper1,

Firstly, it wouldn't be the horses that Frankel beat in the 2,000 Guineas that are likely to the biggest hurdle he has to overcome, as most of them are milers, it is the fresh group of horses who will thoroughly stay the trip that he will have worry about.

Brilliance at a mile is no guarantee of equal brilliance at longer distances. Frankel is the widest margin 2,000 Guineas winner since Tudor Minstrel, one of the greatest milers of all time, and a similar free running type. Tudor Minstrel (whose sire won the Ascot Gold Cup and broodmare sire the Derby) absolutely failed to stay.

As regards his breeding, he is by Galileo, who absolutely did stay 1 1/2 miles, but out of a mare who although she broke her maiden at seven furlongs, then shortened up and was a stakes winner at five and six furlongs. With that kind of mating of extremes there is a tendency for a horse to take mostly after one parent or another. It's quite possible that that a Galileo/Kind mating could produce a ten or 12 furlong horse (as did the mating between Sadler's Wells and Kind), but Frankel is the result of a different roll of the genetic dice.

With regard to gameness, it might make the difference in a close finish, but it's not going to let a horse win a race against other group one performers at a distance way beyond it's best if it's physiology makes it incapable of running the trip at the required pace (they can all get 12 furlongs if they're given long enough). From his running style and pace, I'd think Frankel would have more chance of winning a July Cup than the Derby.

Finally, I suspect that Frankel's trainer, who by this stage is quite experienced - I think his first group/grade one level winner came in 1969 - would probably quite like to win another Derby, but has been emphatic in not wanting to run a Derby.

re: Sadler's Wells Line Dominant in Classic Trials

sniper1 — Mon, 16 May 2011 20:05:59 GMT

Frankel beat his contemporaries by open lengths easily-----IF--his connections choose to run him 1 1/2 miles---although you are hardly alone in the comment ---WHY would you think the others would improve that much to catch him @ 1 1/2 rather the his possible but not proven ineffectively so they could? Maybe he won’t rate---I doubt that—his breeding says he can go on---isn’t this that blog that studies breeding?

What about gameness in the equation. One race experts—If he runs—he wins and pays less than 1-2