10 Preakness Winners, 10 Champions

re: 10 Preakness Winners, 10 Champions

Slew — Sun, 22 May 2011 12:53:00 GMT

Shorter distance favors speed and front runners. Belmont will weed them out. And why are NA horses so lacking in stamina?

re: 10 Preakness Winners, 10 Champions

Terry M. — Sat, 21 May 2011 17:25:50 GMT

I think all five of your points play into why the Preakness creates champions, but distance is a main one. Americans breed for speed over stamina, and early development over horses that mature later. Certainly Belmont winners don't get nearly as much respect, probably because there are almost no opportunities for a true distance-running 3-year-old to prove his or her quality, especially against other 3-year-olds. It's easier for horses that like races under 10 furlongs, because there are lots of opportunities for them to show how good they are.

re: 10 Preakness Winners, 10 Champions

TJLuvsTizs — Sat, 21 May 2011 15:45:40 GMT

Jason,

I disagree with you... partially. Three horses here have the opportunity to springboard to the 3yo Championship Animal Kingdom, MMM, and Dialed In.

If Animal Kingdom takes the Preakness the 3YO championship is his to lose. If MMM takes the Preakness they may skip the Belmont and back off of him and save him for a strong campaign in the second half of the year. His consistency would put him in position to take the big Summer Stakes and lock up the 3YO Championship. Dialed In has the name recognition right now, and a win in the Preakness would solidify the many writers belief in this horse and it would be difficult to wrestle it away from him at that point.

Personally, I think AK will win today and create a large buzz around Horse Racing. He is not quite at Big Brown level hype, but can create some fun that the Belmont has missed the last two years.

re: 10 Preakness Winners, 10 Champions

GunBow — Sat, 21 May 2011 06:12:09 GMT

I think you isolated the key variables, with the first 3 being most important. The distance, a sixteenth of a mile shorter than the Derby, better showcases the more brilliant 3 year olds; the smaller field size does allow for a more genuine result; and finally there are fewer "No-Hopers" in the Preakness than in the Derby, in part because of the smaller field size but also because fewer owners are stricken with "Preakness Fever" than "Derby Fever", and those "No Hopers" that did run in the Derby have fallen by the wayside come Preakness time.

re: 10 Preakness Winners, 10 Champions

sceptre — Fri, 20 May 2011 21:28:34 GMT

Nice piece of research, Ian. Hadn't occurred to me. I guess race should have more credibility than it does.

re: 10 Preakness Winners, 10 Champions

TomL — Fri, 20 May 2011 21:02:39 GMT

I would say most if not all of these factors are relevant. ... Seems to me the Preakness can be a more fairly run race ... and if the winner (who didn't win the Derby) skips the Belmont Stakes and points to key summer and fall races, he has more time to develop and win a championship. ... All I know is this list tells a tale, just not sure why it happens this way.

re: 10 Preakness Winners, 10 Champions

Beachcomber — Fri, 20 May 2011 19:57:18 GMT

Other- good horses prefer Blackeyed Susans to roses!

But seriously, Animal Kingdom is only one in this field who can be 3yo champ. None of the others are good enough to win multiple G1s later in the year. Any 3yo champion should be required to win 2 G1s, preferably more.

re: 10 Preakness Winners, 10 Champions

Ian Tapp — Fri, 20 May 2011 19:41:21 GMT

You may be right, Jason. Consider the Baffert barn alone: Coil, Smash, Jaycito, The Factor, Awesome Patriot, Uncle Sam, plus Midnight Interlude. Surely at least one of those will have a big year.

re: 10 Preakness Winners, 10 Champions

Jason Shandler — Fri, 20 May 2011 19:18:24 GMT

This is not your normal year. We saw that in the Derby. Look for the 3Yo champion to make the most waves later in the year. He is not in this race.