Galileo/Danehill is "Nick of the Moment"

re: Galileo/Danehill is "Nick of the Moment"

awesome farms — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 14:10:45 GMT

GALILEO- STRAVINKY CROSS.

re: Galileo/Danehill is "Nick of the Moment"

awesome farms — Mon, 22 Apr 2013 14:09:41 GMT

galileo-STRAVINKY-CROSS.

re: Galileo/Danehill is "Nick of the Moment"

Lou — Sun, 24 Mar 2013 13:45:56 GMT

I think the racing conditions in Australia in the noughties (at least from 2000-2009) made a big impact on the lack of success of the Sadlers Wells (and Galileo) lines. We had severe drought conditions and the Sadlers Wells line horses don't seem to stretch out in these conditions. ( I remember seeing one of the first Sadlers Wells imports, the magnificent stallion Runyon with his feet wrapped in cotton wool after winning at WFA at Caulfied, I think the race was taken off him for having Lignocaine in his system). Also the 2 Montjeu stallions who won AJC derbies during this time did it on bog tracks (Nom de Jeu and Roman Emperor) which did sometimes happen in Sydneys unpredictable autumns. So I think there are sometimes extraordinary circumstances and we have to be a bit careful with the statistics although maybe taken over 25 years the true trends will show through. For instance we seem to have a bumper crop of three year olds this year (2013) with them either winning or close to beating the older WFA stars. I think this crop would have been weanlings and yearlings when the drought broke and maybe accessed superior nutrition than previous crops? Maybe someone remembers what the conditions were like in the preceding years before Octagonal, Saintly, Nothing Like a Dane and Filante appeared as a super crop?

The drought theory would correlate quite well with the emergence of High Chaparral, although his great crop (So you think, Shoot Out, Descarado, Monaco Consul) were born and raised in the early years in NZ but at least raced here when conditions started to soften up.

Maybe some of those dud shuttle stallions during the noughties will still get to leave their mark when their descendants through the broodmares, race on softer ground with more give.

On the inbreeding to Northern Dancer as the reason for the success of Galileo and Danehill nick, I really am more interested in the influence of his female family (Natalma, Almahmoud and even Mother Goose) with Machiavellian and Danehill also coming from this female family (Halo too). The statistics on the Danehill - Street Cry cross do look very exciting with the Cup winner Shocking being a prime example.

The interesting thing too about Street Cry is that he is throwing great horses in the USA, UK and Australia, all tracks, all conditions. Although there maybe a tendency for them to be a bit heavy and have leg problems.

re: Galileo/Danehill is "Nick of the Moment"

John T — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 01:15:11 GMT

It has been another remarkable year for Galileo,to-day Aug

30th at Epsom he had a 2 year old daughter,Albamara win a maiden at a distance just over a mile.She is out of Albanoua

who won 3 group 1 races in Germany,and Albanoua,s full-sister Alborada was a dual winner of the group 1 Champion Stakes at Newmarket so much will be expected from Albamara.

No doubt she was given this race at Epsom to-day with the

Epsom Oaks next June as a long term goal.

re: Galileo/Danehill is "Nick of the Moment"

Wilco — Mon, 20 Jun 2011 04:25:57 GMT

It may be that Danehill mares do well with other lines of Sadlers Wells family as well eg Nureyev line stallions.A casual observation suggests this maybe so, Also Zabeel whose dam is by Nureyev. Or perhaps Danehill's double of Natalma gives him and his daughters a greater affinity with other Northern Dancer lines.

Do statistics support these thoughts?

re: Galileo/Danehill is "Nick of the Moment"

John T — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 01:54:26 GMT

Frankel got the job done in the St.James,s Palace Stakes

and although it may not have looked as impressive as his win

in the Guineas it still was a good win as he confirmed the form with those he has run against before.His time was slightly better than Canford Cliffs when he won the same race last year,and he started to idle more than anything else when he got the lead.The trainer has said his next race will either be the 8 furlong Sussex Stakes or the 10 furlong Juddmonte International.

re: Galileo/Danehill is "Nick of the Moment"

MurrayK — Mon, 30 May 2011 11:00:28 GMT

I love this cross, both Galileo & Danehill were major group 1 winners & champion sires so its more than likely that the resultant progeny will be of high quality. I have also used a similar cross that first became apparent after Teofilo hit his straps. I used a group 1 winning son of Sadler's Wells over my Eagle Eyed (Danehill's brother) mare. Its gratifying to know that it works on that level, hopefully for me also, my colt is an unraced 3-y-o who is showing potential in his training.

MurrayK

re: Galileo/Danehill is "Nick of the Moment"

John T — Mon, 30 May 2011 01:56:54 GMT

I think everyone who loves the sport of thoughbred racing like to see a great racemare produce a winner. So how good it felt when the first foal of Ouija Board, a son of Kingmambo, Voodoo Prince won at the second time of asking at Haydock Park. Ouija Board has a yearling filly by Galileo and I am looking forward to seeing what she can do as a 2 year old next year.

re: Galileo/Danehill is "Nick of the Moment"

Ian Tapp — Thu, 26 May 2011 21:38:52 GMT

Hi sceptre,

Excellent set of questions. Byron has addressed them in a new blog -- click here

re: Galileo/Danehill is "Nick of the Moment"

sceptre — Wed, 25 May 2011 03:56:14 GMT

Nice piece of research, but I remain unconvinced. Let me narrow down my issue to a few related questions:

1. Consider two stallions, one has but 90+ named foals of which 16% are SWs. The second stallion has sired 14+ times as many foals as the other and 8% are SWs. All else equal (including age not a factor), how certain are you that you would prefer to breed to the first referenced stallion rather than the second? (speaks to the broader question of statistical significance).

2. How often, if at all, have you done retrospective analysis of situations such as that offered in your Galileo/Danehill vs Galileo/all others? I realize that by being "publicized"/"accepted" a nick may later somewhat "dilute" (potential overload of lesser quality mates by broodmare sire, etc.), but careful analysis can eliminate this variable.

I would also like to see your "numbers" for only those who competed in Ireland, England, and France.

re: Galileo/Danehill is "Nick of the Moment"

Byron Rogers — Mon, 23 May 2011 20:46:48 GMT

Robert,

"Galileo looks like Sadlers Wells who looks like N.D. Danehill looks a little like Danzig who looks a little like N.D. I believe the affinity you mention is more physical than genetic"

I can't agree with this as far as the 'looks like' goes. I never saw Northern Dancer, outside of photos, but Galileo is a good hand taller (not smaller as you suggest) and much more lengthy and substantial a horse than his own sire Sadler's Wells. Equally Danehill was a much bigger and lengthier horse than his own sire Danzig. If anything there may be a biomechanical affinity taking place between the two as while Danehill was slightly more substantial and had a better hindquarter and hindleg, the two of them shared a lot of the same qualities in the neck, shoulder, girth and they were both certainly among the most beautiful movers at the walk I have ever seen.

I will agree with you though that the cross seems to be imparting a lot of speed and some distance limitations, but it won't surprise me (and I suspect you) if one bred on the cross, or in reverse, comes out and wins a big race at a mile and a half.

re: Galileo/Danehill is "Nick of the Moment"

Robert — Mon, 23 May 2011 19:11:12 GMT

Galileo looks like Sadlers Wells who looks like N.D. Danehill looks a little like Danzig who looks a little like N.D. I believe the affinity you mention is more physical than genetic. The phenotype of Galileo and Danehill matches up well. Galileo is smaller than Sadlers Wells and has Miswaki in there as his dam sire. Danehill is 3x3 to Natalma, a daughter of Native Dancer, the paternal great grandsire of Miswaki. I believe that is the nick coming out in these horses. I would like to see Galileo bred to a Sadlers Wells line mare and see if he has the same strike rate. There are plenty of granddaughters of Montjeu out there for them to use. Galileo's offspring are also not running as far as Sadlers Wells did....up to 2 1/2 miles. That is the Miswaki coming out in him along with Mr. Prospector. Another great article Alan...A+++

re: Galileo/Danehill is "Nick of the Moment"

Alan Porter — Mon, 23 May 2011 14:46:05 GMT

Hi Thomas,

Thanks for the note. A few years ago I actually conducted a study on Northern Dancer inbreeding where Northern Dancer was in the male line of the sire and the broodmare sire, as here.

This took all known foals bred on any version of the Northern Dancer/Northern Dancer cross, going back four generations. At the time the cross had produced 2.57% stakes winners, as opposed to 3.6% stakes winners for all Northern Dancer line stallions, and 4.09% stakes winners for all Northern Dancer line mares. So, in general, inbreeding to Northern Dancer in this fashion was under-achieving.

So, while inbreeding to Northern Dancer may have been "working worldwide" and is in a tremendous number of black-type stakes winners - 4,536 with Northern Dancer 4 x 4 or closer, to be precise - it's taken 116,394 starters to achieve that (2.5% stakes winners to starters).

Now, when we come to Galileo with Danehill mares, if you read the article carefully, you will note that the cross has produced about 16% stakes winners to starters, so is doing twice as well as Galileo with all other mares, and three times as well as the Danehill mares bred to Galileo have done with all other stallions.

Far from being meaningless, this nick is an example of a true genetic affinity that exists between Galileo, and a high proportion of the Danehill mares bred to him (note that most versions of Galileo and Sadler's Wells with Danehill and Danzig have underachieved).

You are certainly free to try and refute the evidence for the Galileo/Danehill cross, but you'll need to produce some hard facts to do so.

re: Galileo/Danehill is "Nick of the Moment"

Ian Tapp — Mon, 23 May 2011 14:11:59 GMT

Big statement, Thomas. You believe that 3x4 inbreeding to Northern Dancer is responsible for the success of Galileo/Danehill? Not only are the principles of Mendelian genetics against you, but a quick look at the Equineline Pedigree Analysis Program easily debunks your claim.

These are figures for Northern Dancer inbreeding between 3 and 4 generations:

176,792 foals of racing age

113,619 (64.3%) starters

68,650 (38.8%) winners

4,355 (2.5%) stakes winners

re: Galileo/Danehill is "Nick of the Moment"

Thomas Clark — Mon, 23 May 2011 11:00:59 GMT

The "nick" is meaningless - It is inbreeding to Northern Dancer that is working worldwide.

re: Galileo/Danehill is "Nick of the Moment"

John T — Mon, 23 May 2011 01:24:53 GMT

The Galileo/Danehill nick should be very prominent for years to come but let us have a closer look at the current wonder horse of that nick, Frankel. Last year in the Group 1Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket Roderic O'Connor finished second to Frankel and showed just how useful that form was by going on to win a Group 1 in France. After finishing down the field in the English 2000 Guineas to the wonder horse Roderic O'Connor has come back well to win the Irish 2000 Guineas to once again pay a great compliment to Frankel. But not only that, Excelbration who had finished a good second to Frankel in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury in April won the German 2000 Guineas with the greatest of ease on Sunday May 22nd. The next race for Frankel will be the one mile St. James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, but what happens after that? For breeding purpose it is very important to have Frankel win a Group 1 at least at 10 furlongs and for that reason the 10 furlong Juddmonte International at York in August is being considered.

re: Galileo/Danehill is "Nick of the Moment"

Byron Rogers — Sun, 22 May 2011 22:49:22 GMT

Actually, there is already a precedent, the current three-year-old Alexander Pope. He won the Gallinule Stakes (Gr III), a lead up to the Irish Derby for the Coolmore team. He is by Danehill Dancer out of a Galileo mare. Again, we doubt it is going to work all the time, and not with every son of Danehill, nor every daughter of Galileo, but there is clear genetic affinity we are talking about here.

re: Galileo/Danehill is "Nick of the Moment"

Jason — Sun, 22 May 2011 22:37:48 GMT

What are your thoughts then on the prospects for progeny of sons of Danehill, who have been mated with daughters of Galileo?