Classic Longshots Boost Young Sires

re: Classic Longshots Boost Young Sires

-Keelerman — Thu, 16 Jun 2011 03:16:16 GMT

Alan;

Thank you for your reply! Excellent point regarding Birdrun, he slipped my mind. I've always been fond of Birdstone and will be looking foward to seeing his progeny hit the racetrack in 2014.

In regards to your question as to when was the last time that the Derby and Preakness winners met in the Belmont and both failed to hit the board, this outcome occurred last in 1993. Kentucky Derby winner Sea Hero and Preakness winner Prairie Bayou squared off in the Belmont, with Sea Hero finishing seventh and Prairie Bayou breaking down.

-Keelerman

re: Classic Longshots Boost Young Sires

Alan Porter — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 16:30:59 GMT

Keelerman,

Birdstone just had another graded winner, Birdrun, who took the Brooklyn Handicap (gr. II), from his first crop. He's now actually had five graded winners from that crop, including Summer Bird and Mine Than Bird.

This is just typical of a the profile of a modern stallion who didn't start at the leading edge of commerciality - a bright start, but not enough strength in the next crops to maintain momentum. Birdstone will have had a good book of mares in 2010 (the year following Summer Bird/Mine That Bird's classics), so look out for him to rebound in 2014.

re: Classic Longshots Boost Young Sires

Alan Porter — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 16:17:57 GMT

When was the last time the winners of the Derby and Preakness ran in the Belmont and neither hit the board? In fact none of the first six in the Derby could make the first three in the Belmont.

re: Classic Longshots Boost Young Sires

-Keelerman — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 03:27:36 GMT

What a fascinating chart! I believe that Forestry's stud fee will pop back up next year, especially if Shackleford were to win the Eclipse award as champion three-year-old.

Looking at how Birdstone's stud fee increased upon the classic victories of Mine That Bird and Summer Bird, it got me to thinking about how Birdstone's progeny have performed since then. No real stars have emerged from his subsequent crops. Do you think that we have seen the best of Birdstone's foals, and that future crops will yield fewer good horses, or will he rebound with some new stars in the near future?

Once again, great post!

-Keelerman

re: Classic Longshots Boost Young Sires

Dennis — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 01:00:34 GMT

Ian,

Thanks for adding that column.

It's interesting to see what the conception fee was given all the current talk of fee adjustments due to the current economic climate. Interesting to note that Shackleford was a 275k RNA, imagine if he had sold, given vet fees, stud fees and sales prep they would have turned little to no profit.

re: Classic Longshots Boost Young Sires

Ian Tapp — Tue, 14 Jun 2011 19:55:14 GMT

Dennis,

Good idea, thanks. The chart's getting a bit crammed, but now I've added the fees these horses were bred on (time of conception).

re: Classic Longshots Boost Young Sires

Terry M. — Tue, 14 Jun 2011 18:21:14 GMT

Interesting story. I think Birdstone, Leroidesanimaux and Forestry will be recognized as excellent sires down the road. Time will tell!

However, North American breeders have to start embracing foreign-born stallions, and soon, because of the inbreeding issue and the number of top American sires producing conformation flaws, unsoundness and bleeders. Stallions like Leroidesanimaux, Candy Ride, Street Cry, and others with European or South American bloodlines are needed.

re: Classic Longshots Boost Young Sires

Dennis — Tue, 14 Jun 2011 16:57:07 GMT

I would be interested to see what the stud fee at time of conception was for these stallions. Interesting to see that in 2007 Forestry was at $125k, up 25k from 2006.