No Apologies: TrueNicks Reports the Bad with the Good

re: No Apologies: TrueNicks Reports the Bad with the Good

J.D. Osgood — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 18:40:22 GMT

Comparing TrueNicks to eNicks is like trying to compare a true horseman to a used car salesman.

re: No Apologies: TrueNicks Reports the Bad with the Good

cam h. — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 17:04:36 GMT

I think "True Nicks" is a wonderful tool. I think it increases your odds greatly but of course you have to consider all of the other factors such as conformation and etc. Would you please explain the variant numbers. One of my mares had an A++ rating with a 44.90 variant with a son of Carson City.

Cam H.

re: No Apologies: TrueNicks Reports the Bad with the Good

todd f. — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 06:16:08 GMT

Nicks are only a small part of selecting a mating. The racing ability of the stud is number one for me. Then comes the size. A 16.1 mare should goto a 16.1, 16.2 stud. Make sure they size up together properly. Then do the pedigree work, nicks included. I'll have over 100 hours of work into each mating by the time I sine the breeding agreement... Buyers look to the conformation of the offering more than pedigree.

re: No Apologies: TrueNicks Reports the Bad with the Good

dave york — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 10:57:07 GMT

I have been fortunate to get a couple of great looking foals and well behaved foals recently. One of them broke her maiden first out. A Bernstein filly named Saxxy Rose Lee. How does your system predict the success of a new stallion. I love the pedigree of Purim but is there any statistical method to predict how he will do as a stallion?

Alan's response: Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} Congratulations on the success of Saxxy Rose Lee. As a product of the very successful Storm Cat/Relaunch cross, she is rated A by TrueNicks.

With regard to the question about Purim: as far as TrueNicks is concerned, until he has sufficient starters bred on a cross, the TrueNicks rating for Purim will be calculated on the basis of how well Dynaformer and his other stallion sons have done over mares by the broodmare sire (or from the broodmare sire line) relative to opportunity. Of course each stallion is an individual in his own right, so we can also consider other factors in Purim's pedigree that might be important, such as his inbreeding to Ribot (which would indicate introducing Princequillo) and the fact that his third dam is a half-sister to Dr. Fager (a strain that has done very well with Dynaformer).

re: No Apologies: TrueNicks Reports the Bad with the Good

brogers — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 10:46:42 GMT

As a post script to this story. On the Saturday following this story being posted, Dr Doute's a son of Redoute's Choice out of a mare by Dr Grace (a son of Sir Tristram) won the Carbine Club Stakes (gr. III), his first stakes win. He became the 11th stakes winner by Redoute's Choice out of a Sir Tristram line mare.

re: No Apologies: TrueNicks Reports the Bad with the Good

Debbie S. — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 15:48:16 GMT

All nicking accuracy is often less accurate than one would like due to the fact that the nicks are removed one or more generations from the cross one is actually making -- therefore you may get a nick rating for Holy Bull crossed with Danzig when you are actually breeding Macho Uno with Pine Bluff. You will find over time that the sons don't always breed like their sires. I am often offered nicks based on crosses more removed even then that. Sometimes you just have to try new things -- this does not make these breeding attempts "bad".

re: No Apologies: TrueNicks Reports the Bad with the Good

Scott M. — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 12:54:53 GMT

Excellent article. It's about time people recognize the importance of breeding or not breeding to a paticular sire just because he's the next big thing. Sometimes mares just shouldn't be bred. Following a plan that includes nicks that are accurate, conformation, and overall ability to add to the breed, should be the breeders main objective. I will use continue to use Truenicks as a part of my plan.

re: No Apologies: TrueNicks Reports the Bad with the Good

Bill B — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 12:47:31 GMT

Genetic intereaction is the backbone of the complete race horse and has always been throughout the history of our sport. Your index gives us a chance to be part of that history if only one portion of the equation. I commend True Nicks in your effort in helping the prospective owner on the uphill course of producing quality,

re: No Apologies: TrueNicks Reports the Bad with the Good

Alex — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 11:07:32 GMT

Excellent article. I still remain very skeptical of the entire approach of nicking, given the relatively small sample sizes of virtually all crosses, and the fact that you don't share enough of the data for us to do our own analysis of your approach and results. That said, everything you said in this article is true, and it appears that you are at least attempting to take a reasonable approach to determining your ratings, and not entirely catering to your highest paying customers.

re: No Apologies: TrueNicks Reports the Bad with the Good

Kent D. Hersman — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 03:42:25 GMT

Glad to see this blog.

Contrary to ratings of True Nicks, I bred my Relaunch mare to Hard Spun for an '09 filly. I liked the cross; additionally, I liked what I had seen that came from the cross - Ad Valorem.

It seemed to me that the data used by True Nicks should have been more in line with “No Rating”, instead of the F that was published at the time. Anyway, Forever Together, an F, has settled any questions that doubters may have as to what type of turf champion can be produced from the Danzig - Relaunch cross.

Ever since last year I have determined that I will not use any of the Nicking programs in making my final decisions about a horse. In my opinion, when contemplating a cross, if we want to evaluate the A-B-C-D's, we should focus on a lot more than just Ancestor's.

I wonder where Big-heartedness, Confirmation, and Disposition get figured in when the statisticians do the True Nicks.

It is not surprising to me that a few of the champions on day one of Breeder's Cup had less than an A Nick rating.

If my breeding decision is an A++, very well; If it is not, very well, anyway, because it is based on the details and not some quick computation derived from data that can sway the masses or overlook major factors.

Kent D. Hersman

Byron's Reply: Kent, thanks for the comment. Ad Valorem and Forever Together are the only two stakes winners bred on the cross of sons of Danzig over Relaunch mares. Forever Together is however an "A" with TrueNicks as her sire Belong to Me has done particualrly well with In Reality line mares and the calculation for this mare is based on her sire, not her grandsire. I will say that your last comment is something that we have been talking about for some time on this blog. Paper doesn't run very fast and Nicks are just one aspect of the overall pedigree and physical considerations that need to me made when mating your mares. All the best with your Hard Spun foal.

re: No Apologies: TrueNicks Reports the Bad with the Good

Danette Nanez — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 02:03:26 GMT

Without naming names, I bred two horses with A++ ratings...one broke her maiden (bottom claiming) at C.T., the other never broke his maiden. I was lucky to find both good homes as riding horses!

re: No Apologies: TrueNicks Reports the Bad with the Good

Janet — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 01:24:04 GMT

The philosophy of convincing as many breeders as possible to book to a particular stallion, regardless of the actual potential to produce useful offspring (ultimately causing a decline in the stud fee of the stallion), reminds me of the fallout from the present Wall Street debacle. Toss out as many sub-prime loans as possible to those with poor or no credit history, under the guise of getting all those clamouring for houses to become "proud homeowners," usually destined to lose those homes for lack of ability to pay the mortgage. It is self-serving at best to want short-term profit by convincing wholesale breeding to a particular stallion, regardless of whether there will be a good outcome. All those repossessed properties. All those devalued stallions. All those disposable foals.

re: No Apologies: TrueNicks Reports the Bad with the Good

R. Lees — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 00:54:53 GMT

Purchasers have enough problems with the on going high-jinks that are commonplace at the sales ie; (sales companies catering to the large consignors and breeding farms in their catalog placement while moving smaller consignors to the back of the bus even though thier stock on many occasions is superior!).

A legitamate nicking system is a must in this day and age of excessive books it helps seperate reality from hype. Further more the breeders have shot themselves in the foot by breeding any mare whose owner will pony up the stud fee! Not unlike Wall St. greed has reigned supreme - now it's time to pay the piper. Your article is excellent as is "True Nicks" format.