Derby Pedigrees Examined

re: Derby Pedigrees Examined

howiethehorse — Mon, 04 Jun 2012 18:42:47 GMT

I loved your article fortunately I came across it by googling 2012 belmont entries that have Domino bloodlines. I read an article recently that tied the winners of the Belmont to the Domino bloodline. Is there truth to this and could you tell me which horses in this years Belmont have the pedigree.

re: Derby Pedigrees Examined

Cat Whisperer — Sat, 05 May 2012 04:19:20 GMT

It's funny how some people are tossing out contenders on the basis of a sprint-bred pedigree.

I can remember how in 1973, there was a pretty good horse that a lot of know-it-alls said might have stamina limitations. After all, his sire had never gotten a Derby winner in spite of being bred to some classically-bred mares with stamina in the pedigree, and was more known for siring runners with brilliance than staying power.

Now didn't all those people look silly when Secretariat became Bold Ruler's Derby winner? And even sillier when Secretariat cruised by 31 lengths to win the Derby?

And don't tell me sprinters can't win the Derby. Bold Forbes was nobody's idea of a classic horse, but he "stole" the Derby and the Belmont when he got an easy lead and could just cruise. If one of the sprint-bred speed horses in this year's Derby gets to set an uncontested lead, you just might see a sprinter winning at boxcars.

...Especially if the horses with more stamina are caught in traffic and can't get a clear run, have to go seven wide to find a path out of traffic, or are forced to check behind tiring horses that are backing up through the stretch. After all, between Cannonade and Little Current, who was the better horse in 1974?

In a big field, sometimes it isn't the best horse that wins. It's the horse with the best luck.

re: Derby Pedigrees Examined

Ian Tapp — Fri, 04 May 2012 14:55:22 GMT

dledford1,

Not crying out for it based on his pedigree, but partly for reasons you mentioned, he's my pick to win the race.

re: Derby Pedigrees Examined

aethervox — Fri, 04 May 2012 05:28:02 GMT

CW and Mookie's Hero:

Since 1950, the following mares have had more than one Derby runner (sorted by number of runners, then alphabetically):

Mares with 3 Derby runners:

Bali Babe (1980): Tossofthecoin, Ran in 1993; Place: 19; Charismatic, Ran in 1999; Place: 1, Millennium Wind, Ran in 2001; Place: 11

Mares with 2 Derby runners:

Anne Campbell (1973): Desert Wine, Ran in 1983; Place: 2; Menifee, Ran in 1999; Place: 2

Belle Jeep (1949): Jewel's Reward, Ran in 1958; Place: 4; Triple Crown, Ran in 1974; Place: 17

Bottle Top (1981): Strodes Creek, Ran in 1994; Place: 2; Corker, Ran in 1996; Place: 11

Brown Berry (1960): Unconscious, Ran in 1971; Place: 5; Avatar, Ran in 1975; Place: 2

Double Zero II (1964): Twice A Prince, Ran in 1973; Place: 12; Play The Red, Ran in 1976; Place: 8

Doublene (1957): Second Encounter, Ran in 1967; Place: 10; Navajo, Ran in 1973; Place: 7

Fall Aspen (1976): Timber Country, Ran in 1995; Place: 3; Prince Of Thieves, Ran in 1996; Place: 3

Golden Shore (1971): Golden Act, Ran in 1979; Place: 3; Majestic Shore, Ran in 1984; Place: 20

Her Honor (1954): Prego, Ran in 1962; Place: 15; Dr. Behrman, Ran in 1970; Place: 12

Kelli's Ransom (1999): Regal Ransom, Ran in 2009; Place: 8; Devil May Care, Ran in 2010; Place: 10

Koubis (1946): Determine, Ran in 1954; Place: 1; Invalidate, Ran in 1956; Place: 15

Lady In Red (1966): Bedouin, Ran in 1984; Place: 15; Ragtime Rebel, Ran in 1993; Place: 9

Lalun (1952): Never Bend, Ran in 1963; Place: 2; Bold Reason, Ran in 1971; Place: 3

Larklyric (1946): Black Metal, Ran in 1954; Place: 13; Ebony Pearl, Ran in 1958; Place: 10

Lurline B. (1945): Lurullah, Ran in 1960; Place: 12; Roman Line, Ran in 1962; Place: 2

Lutza (1947): A Dragon Killer, Ran in 1958; Place: 7; The Chosen One, Ran in 1959; Place: 14

Marozia (1994): Andromeda's Hero, Ran in 2005; Place: 8; Stay Thirsty, Ran in 2011; Place: 12

Misty Morn (1952): Bold Lad, Ran in 1965; Place: 10; Successor, Ran in 1967; Place: 6

Never Knock (1979): Pleasant Tap, Ran in 1990; Place: 3; Go For Gin, Ran in 1994; Place: 1

Old Goldie (1970): Lot O' Gold, Ran in 1979; Place: 9; Golden Derby, Ran in 1981; Place: 21

Rowdy Angel (1979): Demons Begone, Ran in 1987; Place: 17; Pine Bluff, Ran in 1992; Place: 5

Royal Puzzler (1951): Royal Tower, Ran in 1963; Place: 9; Fleet Allied, Ran in 1969; Place: 7

Set Them Free (1990): Giacomo, Ran in 2005; Place: 1; Tiago, Ran in 2007; Place: 7

Space Angel (1980): Pendleton Ridge, Ran in 1990; Place: 13; Lost Mountain, Ran in 1991; Place: 12

Sweet Damsel (1995): Colonel John, Ran in 2008; Place: 6; Mr. Hot Stuff, Ran in 2009; Place: 15

Tularia (1955): Honest Pleasure, Ran in 1976; Place: 2; For The Moment, Ran in 1977; Place: 8

Winver (1972): At The Threshold, Ran in 1984; Place: 3; Zabaleta, Ran in 1986; Place: 12

re: Derby Pedigrees Examined

dledford1 — Fri, 04 May 2012 03:23:02 GMT

I disagree with Union Rags not "crying out' for 10 furlongs.

In his defeats in both the Florida Derby and the Breeders Cup he was coming on strong at the end and would have caught the lead horses if he had had just a bit more distance. The K-Derby distance may be just what he needs!

re: Derby Pedigrees Examined

willow — Fri, 04 May 2012 00:11:09 GMT

Which 2012 Kentucky Derby horses will be on lasix on Saturday? What about the Oaks? Where can I find this info??

thanks..

re: Derby Pedigrees Examined

Lammtarra's Arc — Thu, 03 May 2012 23:04:31 GMT

Give me Prospective all day long baby!.

re: Derby Pedigrees Examined

sceptre — Thu, 03 May 2012 21:02:08 GMT

Congratulations, Ian, I see this (your) topic received more than 100 responses. Can't recall another (TrueNicks) receiving more. Well, aside from commercial considerations, one wonders if it yielded a net gain re-informative value. Who knows, more may derive benefit if in the future these articles accepted no reponses or were limited to questions only-pure questions, and not statements/opinions guised as questions.

re: Derby Pedigrees Examined

patuxet — Thu, 03 May 2012 19:57:27 GMT

Steve Roman, in his detailed Derby Preview (chef-de-race.com/.../2012_derby_preview.htm) makes a novel point about Bodemeister: "... daughters of his broodmare sire, Storm Cat, have never produced a major winner on dirt beyond nine furlongs from about 2,500 foals over two decades." That was news to me and worth remembering.

re: Derby Pedigrees Examined

big john t — Thu, 03 May 2012 12:56:06 GMT

sceptre,

I was fortunate to grow up around race horses, trainers, jockeys, exercise riders, (I rode some myself when I was a teen)farriers and etc. I made my living as an industrial engineer and was vice president of engineering and research and development for manufacturing companies and learned a lot in both worlds. Unfortunately, some of what I learned was, completely, false. Most of the ones who talked "the biggest game" knew the least. It took expierence and a lot of research (thousands of hours) to learn the true facts (many have never been proved or disproved). I agree with you that there are few absolutes in breeding/horseracing. I know of one absolute and that is "TALK IS CHEAP".

re: Derby Pedigrees Examined

Cassandra.Says — Thu, 03 May 2012 01:37:02 GMT

The dam is critical, and much more important than the sire, in one sense: she supplies the prenatal environment.

If you look at production records of stakes-producing mares a few decades back, they almost always look like this: first five foals, 2 SWs, 1 Spl; last five foals, 2 unraced, 2 unplaced, 1 4Mcl winner.

Great strides have been made with pregnant mare husbandry very recently. I don't know what they're doing, but I'm wondering if it has anything to do with the flood of ridglings we seem to be experiencing.

re: Derby Pedigrees Examined

Tombino — Wed, 02 May 2012 20:52:56 GMT

First time reader. Whew! Thanks, Ian & all

re: Derby Pedigrees Examined

Obmar — Wed, 02 May 2012 13:07:46 GMT

sceptre said "one could say that the dam contributes SLIGHTLY more than the sire-but it is relatively very slight."

Obmar said "The female half of a pedigree contributes more genetic material."

sceptre than said "For that matter, some of the misinformation posted here (most recently Obmar, Mary, etc.) derived from their authors' receipt of misinformation, or their inability to properly integrate pieces of data.

LOL

"A woman ceases to be a beginner in any given science and becomes a master in that science when he has learned that

he is going to be a beginner all his life."

~ Robin G. Collingwood ~

re: Derby Pedigrees Examined

sceptre — Tue, 01 May 2012 22:23:14 GMT

big john t:

Not sure if you were asking a question-no question marks-or simply making a statement, but since it was directed to me I'll try to respond...Your question could apply to almost any discipline. Finding what are the accepted "truths" requires time and careful research. I should add that blogger posts should be taken with a large grain of salt. It's my opinion-but, I too am but a blogger-that much, if not all offered by Ian, Alan, Byron and Scot, is quite accurate and very informative. Also, various relevant topics will be introduced and you can then explore them more deeply should you desire. Eventually, if you work at it, you'll generally find consensus. Lastly, I'd be wary of any absolute statements when the topic is horseracing/breeding.

re: Derby Pedigrees Examined

Byron Rogers — Tue, 01 May 2012 22:22:13 GMT

Karen in Texas,

I have read the book you mention, authored by Tony Morris and Dr. Matthew Binns. It does a good job of covering most of the topics that one at least try to understand in breeding racehorses. It certainly is a good point to start to understand the genetic basis for some theories in thoroughbred breeding and I am sure that in years to come we will start to build on this type of knowledge. As you point out, Matthew also rather delicately puts the "X-Factor/Large Heart" Theory in its place, nothing more than a well crafted myth.

Big John t,

I thought the onus was on Marianna Haun to prove her theory in the first place! As far as I know, none of her theories made it into peer reviewed scientific papers, yet she passed of what she had 'discovered' as science. It was nothing of the sort. Equally, while technology has now allowed her to test her theory more fully, nothing is forthcoming. In fact, as Alan posted a little earlier, most of the people involved in heart measurements, as it relates to performance have either their own evidence to suggest that it is more likely to be something that the sire passes on (that is a consistent heart morphology that results in elite performance), and those that have both cardio and genomic data have also found that heart size/performance does not appear to be related to a gene(s) on the X-Chromosome. That is not to say that there are not genes on the X-Chromosome that have variants within them that may be an influence on performance, there are, they are just not related to heart size/performance. It was a great story, weaved back in time to a maternal figure, but it wasn't an accurate portrayal of how the X-Chromosome or Cardiac morphology relate to athletic performance.

re: Derby Pedigrees Examined

Ranagulzion — Tue, 01 May 2012 22:04:00 GMT

Sceptre,

I quote you:

"When I used the term "better pedigree" this phrase was shorthand for "better genotype", but, all else equal, while what we regard to be a better pedigree more often signifies a better genotype, it can also be otherwise ...

By the way, don't delude yourelf that all this was written for you, rather I was attempting to bathe away the potential harm/misinformation your post may have conveyed to others."

sceptre 29 Apr 2012 5:46 PM

It is okay to esteem yourself as a smart dude, no problem ...but your arrogance betrays your ignorance when you assume that others whom you know next to nothing about are stupid and less informed than you.

To understand somthing profoundly is to explain it simply, my friend, so that the neophytes among us can comprehend, but your verbose ramblings about genotype/phenotype (supposedly meant to show how conversant you are with the topic) did nothing to alter my first response to your nonsensical notion of improving Dr Fager's pedigree.

re: Derby Pedigrees Examined

big john t — Tue, 01 May 2012 19:43:45 GMT

sceptre,

I agree with what you just posted. I attended the symposium (thoroughbred horse) in Lexington ky. last year and listened to a lot of (what I presummed to be) "experts" in their fields. I detected a significant amount of disagreements among some of the speakers on some of the topics of discussion. How could I discern who was right and who was wrong about their theories or beliefs. As in most cases, (when someone is trying to sell you something) they offered proof of what they were trying to sell us but how could we be sure-after all each one was going to profit (financially) from his or her presentation and most of us were novices, compared to them.

re: Derby Pedigrees Examined

Karen in Texas — Tue, 01 May 2012 18:46:46 GMT

I have a question for any/all of the Truenicks writers--Alan Porter, Ian Tapp, or Byron Rogers. As a healthcare practitioner for humans, I have a pre-clinical background in biology, biochemistry, etc., and have always thought that the single gene X-factor heart theory in equines was fairly unlikely. I understand that Dr. Matthew Binns addresses this idea as a true myth in his book, "Thoroughbred Breeding: Pedigree Theories and the Science of Genetics". Have any of you read this book, and if so, can you recommend it as an educational tool for those who need to understand the science behind pedigree analysis? Thanks.

re: Derby Pedigrees Examined

big john t — Tue, 01 May 2012 16:20:37 GMT

Alan,

Has the "large heart" theory been (positively- scientifically) disproved? I know you have looked at many more pedigrees than I have (I think you're the best in the business) but I have looked at hundreds and I see patterns that may support that theory. I have bred and raced horses for years and know that there are so many variables involved that it is hard to prove or disprove almost any theory.

re: Derby Pedigrees Examined

Hal Dane — Tue, 01 May 2012 16:12:43 GMT

Obmar.,

Where did you find this nonsense that broodmare sires carry a dominant "X"

Two of today's top broodmare stallions are.. Sadler's Wells and Danehill..

No one in his right mind, will say that they were better at siring fillies than colts...

re: Derby Pedigrees Examined

sceptre — Tue, 01 May 2012 15:50:20 GMT

Alan,

Agree with everything you said.

To Everyone-

Unlike many but not all blogs on the BloodHorse site, it was my sense that the main purpose of the TrueNicks blog was to educate. I grant that there are far more important topics in this life than thoroughbred breeding, but apparently some do take it seriously and want to learn. Learning, though, can be impeded when one is exposed to misinformation. For that matter, some of the misinformation posted here (most recently Obmar, Mary, etc.) derived from their authors' receipt of misinformation, or their inability to properly integrate pieces of data. So, if you are interested in these topics I suggest that you accept nothing here as gospel, but use it as a stimulus for further exploration. I could stop here, leave it at that, and most would smile and see this as a pleasant ending. But, it would be less than fully honest. Too many here speak with conviction on subjects in which they are insufficiently versed. I suggest that each of us, prior to posting, should ask ourselves if we truly believe(and are equipped with sufficient knowledge) the assertions we are about to offer. I agree that occasionally one simply doesn't know what they don't know, but most often, in their heart of hearts, they can distinguish relative certainty from the other.

re: Derby Pedigrees Examined

Alan Porter — Tue, 01 May 2012 14:45:48 GMT

Mary,

The"Large Heart - X Factor" is a complete myth. There is no evidence at all for a single gene on the x-chromosome that results in a large heart. In fact those who measure hearts for a living will tell you that they frequently see similarities among hearts by specific stallions. Cardio function is the result of the inter-action of many genes.

What is also worth noting is that from the athletic performance standpoint, a large heart is not always the best heart - what is required is a heart that is appropriate for the indivisual horse and it's aptitude.

re: Derby Pedigrees Examined

Obmar — Tue, 01 May 2012 09:58:10 GMT

The female half of any pedigree contributes two X chromosomes to the male's single X chromosome which is inherited from his dam line only. The female half of a pedigree contributes more genetic material especially mRNA, the santum santorum of genetic transmission, than the male y chromosome. All good stallions require good mothers. Broodmare sirelines are a case in point as well. Broodmare sires carry the dominant X chomosome.

re: Derby Pedigrees Examined

Alan Porter — Tue, 01 May 2012 01:18:22 GMT

Hi Sceptre,

It's a little difficult talking about genetics, and particularly the stuff that is only just appearing, on a general racing/breeding forum as one tends to use generalities that are broadly true to avoid posts that are going to be so complex that they are going to make little sense to those who are not focused on this particular area.

In doing so, we probably do run the risk of over-simplifying - it's a bit like discussing relativity while trying to avoid quantum mechanics. As far as mtDNA and it's inter-reactions with nuclear DNA, and even whether there is sometimes some influence for the mtDNA of the sire, there is a lot we don't know yet! The same might go for why some stallions make sires and some don't!

As far as female lines and stallions - I think that high-quality ancestors in general are a positive, but there are enough examples that make me think that a weak family isn't neccessarily a disaster for a sire.

re: Derby Pedigrees Examined

Mary — Tue, 01 May 2012 01:12:20 GMT

SCEPTRE, there is a gene found on the x chromosome of horses that causes a larger than average heart. It was first documented in Eclipse, a great broodmare producer. A large heart was seen in Phar Lap, Sham, and Secretariat. It is thought that Pocahontas was homozygous for this gene. Large hearts have been traced back to four lines, Princequillo, War Admiral, Blue Larkspur, and Mahmoud. Because the gene is found only on the x chromosome (sex linked), it can only be passed to a stallion's daughters, or to a colt or filly via his dam.

This might explain why Secretariat had better performing daughters than sons, except Risen Star, his greatest son. That being said, training, conformation, or attitude can make even the most talented horse perform poorly.

sceptre you are not posting comments on this blog to learn anything. Your remarks are unbelieveably condescending. Good luck to you, I wish you well.