Belmont: It's More About Pace Than Distance

re: Belmont: It's More About Pace Than Distance

Ian Tapp — Mon, 11 Jun 2012 13:02:26 GMT

Click here to see the Union Rags vs. Paynter graph

re: Belmont: It's More About Pace Than Distance

Ian Tapp — Sun, 10 Jun 2012 20:35:59 GMT

Thanks, Papillon. I'll post a graph of this year's Belmont...should be interesting.

re: Belmont: It's More About Pace Than Distance

papillon — Sun, 10 Jun 2012 16:22:27 GMT

i wish i had read this before the belmont!

all over the web, the most ardent union rags supporters are gloating to all of us who said that dixie unions can't stay (which we say because until yesterday, no dixie union had won past 9 furlongs, not one out of 720 foals).

but this theory actually predicted that union rags would win the belmont--my biggest knock against union rags is that he never accelerates at all--he runs the same pace through out ever race--so he appears to close fast, but actually it is only closing fact in comparison to the deceleration of the other horses, his own pace line remains about the same. against good horses this is a losing stratgey most of the time, because they will have created and insurmountable lead, unless those behind are rapidly increasing their pace significantly, a la the best closer we have ever seen--zenyatta.

i have a feeling if you plot union rags's belmont it will prove to be one of the flattest ever run, which is why those who think this means his belmont victory puts him in contention for the travers, the jcgc, and especially the bcc, will be in for a rude awakening. in most races with legitmate pace and strong competitors, he'll always be where he was for the florida derby and the kentucky derby--gaining but not catching.

i've seen a lot of people saying that union rags's fall will be like summer bird's champion fall season, but they seem to not notice that summer bird ran the belmont in 2:27.54, not 2:30.42, like union rags--union rags's time is more comparable to the one and done's: ruler on ice-2:30.88, drosselmeyer-2.31, commendable--2:31...i just don't see union rags beating a horse like game on dude at a mile and a in under 2 minutes at santa anita this novemeber (a sub 2 minute bcc is very likely at SA), based on the wining the belmont in the fifth slowest time since 1971.

thanks again! very interesting and informative article!!

re: Belmont: It's More About Pace Than Distance

Alan Porter — Sun, 10 Jun 2012 12:55:44 GMT

That's a great presentation, and some fascinating data.

With humans, the picture gets a little obscured in that non-championship meets the middle/long-distances races unusually have "rabbits" paid front runners that go to half or so and then drop out. In championships, generally no one wants to lead so they are tactical affairs where the closing fractions are the fastest.

That said, if we look at the history of world-records in the 800m (around a half-mile), where the world-record is around 1:41 - so about the same time as an 8 1/2 furlong horse race - the first half is always quicker. So physiologically for a race of that duration, the fastest way to run it is with "controlled deceleration."

As per Ian's comment about the premature move on the backstretch in the Belmont Stakes, the rule of thumb for an 800m is that you only have one move, and making it in the third quarter is nearly always fatal.

This doesn't appear quite the same with the 1500m/mile (where the world-record is around 3:45 - equivalent time for a extreme distance race for a thoroughbred), where a quick start, slightly slower middle section, and a fast last quarter is the trend.

While humans and horses are obviously somewhat different physiologically, some of the same principles still apply, and it would not be surprising that the "controlled-deceleration" route is the way to go for most distances that we race in the U.S. (probably particularly on dirt), with the desirability of a flatter-line increasing with the distances as Ian's Belmont chart shows.

re: Belmont: It's More About Pace Than Distance

sceptre — Sat, 09 Jun 2012 17:52:25 GMT

Hi Ian,

Thanks for that explanation; it was helpful and thought stimulating. Ian, your article renewed my curiosity about pace and the physiologic variables involved. Again, the data you offered which suggests a flat line optimal pace for the Belmont deserves more pondering. The physiology of fast twitch/slow twitch muscle fibers as well as other physiologic variables must have a great impact on what is the ideal pace scenario for any individual horse. Yes, all muscles gradually fatigue under exertion-the fast twitch type IIB the most rapidly. But, while these variations in gradual fatigue are the physiologic norm, I ask myself this question- must it follow that deceleration during a race be the optimal pace scenario for a runner (note your optimal flat line pace scenario for the Belmont)? Let's take, for example, the sprinter racehorse whose optimal distance is, let's say, 6 f. (He's labeled a sprinter because he peforms best ((relative to the entire population)) at 6 f. All else equal, he has a somewhat higher ratio of type IIB fast twitch/slow twitch fibers than the average for the breed.-so a greater % of his muscle fibers will fatigue more rapidly, while at the same time he will be capable of a greater burst of speed. But that said, how do we know that his final 6 f time would not be swifter if he traveled that distance in equal 1/4 mile splits-or any variations on this theme? This question could be similarly posed for all distances and all fast twitch/slow twitch configurations. On a somewhat separate note- Some research suggests that these muscle fiber ratios can be modified with "training". This potentiality aside, it would seem that there are gains to be had by identifying an individual horse's muscle fiber ratios. Such answers should enable us to better choose what distance best suits this horse and, perhaps (if there's any merit to my earlier query), the ideal pace scenario within that distance. Must we find these answers at the genetic level, or can they now be found cytologically?

re: Belmont: It's More About Pace Than Distance

Ian Tapp — Sat, 09 Jun 2012 04:27:38 GMT

Sceptre,

Yes, decelerating pace is certainly the norm for US dirt racing, but it's also the norm for Olympic runners and swimmers. If you plot the splits of swimming and running events that have a 2-3 minute overall duration, they have a similar negative slope (the decelerating flat line). So it's not just a US or horseracing thing, it's physiology.

In shorter grade I races, the peaks of acceleration/deceleration are sharper. The Belmont really rewards the flat line.

Regarding Secretariat, overall he decelerated in the Belmont, but it wasn't very flat. He threw in two massive quarters: his 2nd (into the backstretch when dueling with Sham) and 5th (around the far turn).

Recent Belmont winners to run a similar "line" in the Belmont are Summer Bird and Drosselmeyer--the shape of their curves are similar but splits obviously slower.

Alan and Byron would be better to comment on muscle fiber types vs. pace scenarios, but I'd think that would absolutely be the case, with closers:speed horses; sprinters:routers. Take Alan's Shackleford example. Obviously he's effective going fast early and decelerating gradually until the finish, but as the distance increases, the first quarter (the max speed from which he starts decelerating) must be closer to optimal as the distance increases. In his Belmont he was off target, so it cost him. Theoretically, had be gone :24 2/5 instead of :23 4/5, he would have been right there at the finish.

re: Belmont: It's More About Pace Than Distance

sceptre — Sat, 09 Jun 2012 02:29:04 GMT

I really liked this article-and read it over several times. Thee were two statements that stood out (to me). 1. "Generally, this race is won with controlled deceleration." and 2. "Keeping a steady, flat line of pace is the most productive tactic." So, here's a few comments:

It's been my observation that the vast majority of US races-at all distances- tend to be run at decelerated quarters, and, along with this, the individual competitors tend to decelerate throughout the race. Here and there there are the exceptions, but US racing tends to be competed in this manner (unlike many european races). I would think that a Belmont Stakes would somewhat divert from this norm, because it's 1 1/2 M is such an uncommon distance today, but your data suggests a similar pace scenario.-but it also indicates, as you say, that a flatter line of pace may prove most successful. Also, take a look at Secretariat's Belmont fractions. For the most part it was "a controlled deceleration", and very close to a flat line of pace. So, I'm just wondering if your Belmont "pace rule" (i.e. the "flat line" ideal) might also better suit most runners at all distances? Could we then also make "best scenario rules" (best distance rules) for each variety of horse-i.e. those with higher fast twitch/slow twitch ratios, those with the inverse, etc.? Race distance aside, would any of these subgroups prefer a different pace scenario?

re: Belmont: It's More About Pace Than Distance

Ian Tapp — Sat, 09 Jun 2012 01:16:34 GMT

It's called analysis, Arturo. I'd say the observation of pace strategies that tend to win the Belmont is fairly useful, both when handicapping--as you allude to--and when breeding, i.e. considering stallions that have competed or sired runners in the race.

re: Belmont: It's More About Pace Than Distance

an ole railbird — Sat, 09 Jun 2012 01:13:26 GMT

good articule. very informitive. another theroy that you dont hear of anymore is stride angle. ill have another had a perfect stride angle. street life has a good 1 ,as well. "an ole railbird"

re: Belmont: It's More About Pace Than Distance

arturo laguna — Fri, 08 Jun 2012 23:01:16 GMT

It's always facile to make post race race analysis and conclusions,but this kind of treatise does not serve any meaningfull purpose unless there is a pojection of how the premise would apply to the upcoming race. Much ado about nothing,, I say

re: Belmont: It's More About Pace Than Distance

Pete Denk — Fri, 08 Jun 2012 18:14:06 GMT

Very interesting article guys. I have long been fascinated by Energy Distribution, a term I learned from Tom Brohamer's book Modern Pace Handicapping. All sorts of interesting applications...

re: Belmont: It's More About Pace Than Distance

ruth meador — Fri, 08 Jun 2012 17:11:23 GMT

i find it hard to believe that I,LL HAVE ANOTHER is not running in the belmont stakes and his owner and trainer need to check that scan again and to be absolutly sure that thier horse does have injury and and if thier doesn,t have injury at all and then thier horse will be able to run in belmont stakes tomarrow.