What If? Nick Ratings for Your Dream Mating

Who Should Peppers Visit? -- Suggest a Mating for the Record-breaking Thoroughbred Mare.

TrueNicks — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 20:22:59 GMT

With the imminent retirement of record-breaking mare Peppers Pride, Byron Rogers offers his suggestion as to a suitable mating for 2009, and turns it over to you to make yours.

re: What If? Nick Ratings for Your Dream Mating

Aussie Stu — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 05:17:34 GMT

As someone who has a great deal of fun playimg hypotheticals,I ran Empire Maker a young stallion on the way up with the prolific Danehill line we have here in Australia and got the same rating A++ with 131 varient for Makybe Diva(Desert King),Forensics (Flying Spur), Private Steer,(Danehill Dancer) and Merlene (Danehill). All very encouraging for Judmotte to consider shuttling they would get $150k a throw for him down here.

re: What If? Nick Ratings for Your Dream Mating

Lap — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 16:00:23 GMT

The highest True Nick I've come across is Medaglia d'Oro with Mom's Legacy, a mare in the Louisiana Breeders Program (A++ 33.35 variant).

re: What If? Nick Ratings for Your Dream Mating

LDP — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 14:16:05 GMT

Why not try Rags to riches with Holy Bull, there's no inbreeding and got an A++. I also thought she and any given saturday would be, and the also got an A++

re: What If? Nick Ratings for Your Dream Mating

Justine — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 07:51:29 GMT

I've always wondered how Monsun mares would do with dirt horses, especially with my favorite stallion Tiznow. I doubt it's ever going to happen, though, so here's to some big dreaming for some stamina horses!

re: What If? Nick Ratings for Your Dream Mating

darryl — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 03:05:00 GMT

how about crossing mien with medaglia d'oro.A+ 5.89 inbreeding to ND 4x3 damascus4x4 and the great mare special 5x3. I don't know if it is too much inbreeding but I think it would be a good foal

re: What If? Nick Ratings for Your Dream Mating

Alan Porter — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 01:53:24 GMT

Sam,

I think we are actually in agreement in a sense - as this points out the need to carefully interpret the rating.

If we really were contemplating Doneraile Court over Manistique, one of the questions we would ask is "how has Doneraile Court worked with Unbridled?" Well the answer is that he hasn't had a starter out of a mare by Unbridled, and has only three starters out of mares by sons of Unbridled. As it turns out, two of those are out of mares by Grindstone.

Now, that might not be the same as with an Unbridled mare, but we can consider this: Seattle Slew sired Doneraile Court - a high-class runner - out of a mare with the Hail to Reason/Tom Fool/Ghazni combination close up in the pedigree.

Unbridled sired Grindstone - a Kentucky Derby winner out of a mare with the Hail to Reason/Tom Fool/Ghazni combination. So - at least far as this cluster is concerned - Seattle Slew (and subsequently Doneraile Court) and Unbridled have a similar affinity, thus it's not astonishing if they work together.

I do take your point, but looking at Ruler's Court/Broken Vow - we see that Ruler's Court has a dam with a reverse Tom Fool/Hail to Reason cross to the dam of Doneraile Court, two thirds of the same cluster. Broken Vow who is from the same female line as Doneraile Court, and has Blushing Groom and Nijinsky II, who both have important tags to Tom Fool.

The answer is: if I looked at Ruler's Court/Broken Vow, I would see it was A++. I would also see that the rating was due to two stakes winners out of mares by Grindstone. Further investigation would lead me to see that the Hail to Reason/Tom Fool/Ghazni cluster had worked with both sire lines, pointing towards potential shared affinities. The commonalities in the pedigrees of Ruler's Court and Broken Vow would suggest to me that this was potential a good way to go.

Oddly enough, that the Doneraile Court/Grindstone cross is an extension of an on going affinity is born out if we look at Doneraile Court with a mare by Cryptoclearance. This also rates A++ even though it is on the basis of a much more frequently tried cross and includes stakes winners out of mares by Lil Fappi and Roy.

So, although I absolutely agree that one shouldn't take a cross like this at face value, without investigation, I do think that in general Doneraile Court is a good cross for Fappiano line mares, all other things being equal.

Thanks for your astute comments and for helping us underline how important careful interpretation of this data is.

re: What If? Nick Ratings for Your Dream Mating

Sam — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 20:34:18 GMT

Alan,

I understand what you're saying, but the point is the nick shows as Doneraile Court to Unbridled, not Doneraile Court to Grindstone (at least, not yet) and for the laymen who are looking for the simplest answer and give nick ratings far more weight than they should, they won't bother to or can't understand this was focused inbreeding between two specific horses.

That means they are going to interpret "Doneraile Court x Unbridled" as exactly what it says -- IOW any Doneraile Court line stallion over any Unbridled line mare. IOW, they will expect the same results from a Ruler's Court x Broken Vow mare mating because, in black and white print, that is what the TrueNick report tells them.

re: What If? Nick Ratings for Your Dream Mating

nakayama — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 19:04:52 GMT

War Pass- Ariege got an A++

Curlin- Ariege got an A+

After Market- Ariege only got an C, but could be something special

re: What If? Nick Ratings for Your Dream Mating

Alan Porter — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 13:40:39 GMT

Sam,

Re the Doneraile Court - Manistique cross. The TrueNicks rating isn't so much an anomaly, as the result of a very specific source.

We recommended crossing Doneraile Court with Grindstone mares because Doneraile Court's dam is by a grandson of Turn-to out of a mare by Dunce, and Grindstone is out of a mare by Drone (by a son of Turn-to, out of Cap and Bells, a sister to Dunce).

There have so far been two starters and two stakes winners on this specific cross. It's not so much an anomoly, as success with a very specific cross (which the TrueNicks page reveals). Of course, I wouldn't expect the cross to maintain its 100% strike rate if tried more frequently, but it does make you wonder what would happen if stallions were extensively bred to the right mares!

re: What If? Nick Ratings for Your Dream Mating

SamNotSpam — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 11:50:44 GMT

Lemon Drop Kid and Ouija board, A++ with a 14.21 variant. They missed a trick breeding her to Kingmambo...

re: What If? Nick Ratings for Your Dream Mating

Sam — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 07:16:10 GMT

My dream foal never to be was always Proud Citizen x Toussaud. There's more to life and breeding than a nick (this was an A). I was more attuned to the inbreeding to Nearctic and Natalma through the full sibs Northern Dancer and Arctic Dancer.

Manistique has long held my interest just because I consider her a tricky mare to breed. You end up inbreeding close to just about all the major commercial sirelines (and get lousy nicks to most of them using this system, which is why no one should ever consider any statistic as gospel). Her Storm Cat and Elusive Quality foals are Ds.

Hard Spun might be interesting (A). A branch of Distorted Humor may also work (A+ to him or his sons)

The best score is Doneraile Court (A++ 314.09 variant) and it does actually nick Doneraile Court to Unbridled rather than Seattle Slew to Unbridled/Fappiano/Mr. Prospector. Of course, the truenick system can only come up with three stakes horses so I'm sure the grade and/or variant will change and would therefore consider this an anomaly that will self-correct over time.

For comparison, Manistique to Slew City Slew is also an A++ but has a paltry 7.40 variant (Slew City Slew over Fappiano). AP Indy is the same A++ but a 7.38 variant (AP Indy over Fappiano). Chief Seattle nicks as Seattle Slew over Unbridled at A++ and 10.99. I would expect DC's numbers to eventually fall in line with those numbers.

The only other A++ nicks I've found would be a branch of Wild Again (Offlee Wild rates a 15.46 variant) or Successful Appeal (Closing Argument nets a 7.07 variant).

re: What If? Nick Ratings for Your Dream Mating

GARY IN SALT LAKE — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 16:10:04 GMT

I have always wondered what a colt by Smarty Jones and Better Than Honour might be like, so I tried this hypo-mating on TrueNicks. An A++ -- oh YEAH, baby !!!

re: What If? Nick Ratings for Your Dream Mating

Anglokraut — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 06:30:46 GMT

Congaree and Azeri for an A++ rating! Imagine a foal strong enough to run 120 Beyers from 8-10 furlongs!

re: What If? Nick Ratings for Your Dream Mating

Agnesworld — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 04:46:31 GMT

Nice upgrade, at least from a TrueNicks perspective for Rags to Riches.

Giant's Causeway, a "D" TrueNick, is the sire of her first foal (to be), but they have backed it up with HenrytheNavigator, an "A" rating. The "turfer" over a "dirter" angle might make it hard though. If she were mine, Distorted Humor would get first pick (A++), especially at his reduced fee.

With Zenyatta, I would think that you would have to go with Giant's Causeway (A++) same as Shamardal and the recent stakes winner Model. You would at least get one that was going to go a route of ground.

As for Zarkava, I wonder if the Aga Khan would think outside the box and send her to Indian Charlie (A+) or even better his sire In Excess? It worked for Gainsborough when they sent a mare in Note Musicale to In Excess and got Musical Chimes.

re: What If? Nick Ratings for Your Dream Mating

VP — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 02:12:41 GMT

Hasili to Galileo (IRE)

re: What If? Nick Ratings for Your Dream Mating

Doremifasollatido — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 01:52:36 GMT

I found out I've been spelling this filly's name wrong, there are 2 Ls! This is the Jerkens filly that won the Matron stakes (G2) at Belmont this year.

I ran her with Dixieland Band and didn't do so hot, a D! I tried her with Curlin and did a little better, a B.

Then I found Tiznow. Shouda thought of him first. Same cross as Tiz Wonderful -- and it gets an A + +.

re: What If? Nick Ratings for Your Dream Mating

trevor — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 21:22:49 GMT

HI ALAN

So a son of Opren on the cross/pedigree of Northerm Dancer/Habitat Mare may be successful, his named is War Crime, and his dam is Zoyce [by zizal]. Is it a good Nick? I plan to breed my mare Nostalgia in 2009 to War Crime.

re: What If? Nick Ratings for Your Dream Mating

Dalziel — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 21:20:50 GMT

I accept this is a fun type challenge but we're talking about one of the truly great post WW2 war brood mares. Class is what matters here and as I understand it, the main reason she was shipped to the USA was to breed a Storm Cat and or an Empire Maker colt foal. Both threw fillies, which on one hand is unfortunate, but would you chuck these out.

From now on it's a given she'll be mated with homeboy Juddmonte stallions

re: What If? Nick Ratings for Your Dream Mating

AnneM — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 20:13:24 GMT

The pedigree database doesn't show any foal for Hasili since 2005. Is she having fertility problems?

Scot's reply: Nope -- Hasili had a Storm Cat filly in 2007 and an Empire Maker filly this May. Probably just haven't made it into the PedigreeQuery.com database yet.

re: What If? Nick Ratings for Your Dream Mating

G K Tatoian — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 20:02:54 GMT

Hard Spun should have run in the Breeders cup turf mile , his half brother War Chant was sensational in the turf classic and its too bad Hard Spun never had a chance to run on turf.He would have been very forminable on turf especially ata mile.

re: What If? Nick Ratings for Your Dream Mating

Smokey 1570 — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 19:41:31 GMT

I think a dream mating would be Authenticate with Smart Surprise. Just wish that I owned one of them.

re: What If? Nick Ratings for Your Dream Mating

G K Tatoian — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 19:28:35 GMT

Bring the great Sadler's Wells[Northern Dancer] out of retirement and mate with Hansili.Offspring would be King of the turf.What other stallion can match his record for Grade 1 wins and turf champions-NO ONE!!!

re: What If? Nick Ratings for Your Dream Mating

Smokey 1570 — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 19:24:08 GMT

What about Authenticate? I feel that he would be a good match. I also think that he is totally underestimated!

re: What If? Nick Ratings for Your Dream Mating

Elaine — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 18:44:35 GMT

I thought I had read that Hasili was going back to England to Oasis Dream. And seriously, you would send a mare with five G1 winners to War Chant (still overpriced at $15,000) or Dove Hunt!!! That is taking that True Nicks rating too seriously and not paying any attention to things such as stallion quality which I think is much more important. If not Oasis Dream, I would look at Danehill Dancer (another Danehill son), Green Desert (sire of Heat Haze) or perhaps Pivotal in England. If she were staying in the US I would breed to Smart Strike.

Scot's reply: Based on both physical match and the affinity of their pedigrees, I would consider Hard Spun the most likely Danzig-line stud in the U.S. for Hasili. You're absolutely correct, nicks are just one tool in the process of matching a stallion to your mare! I provided the other examples just to show that even amongst stallions from a distinct sire line, there are always additional pedigree influences. Thanks for the great comment!