Reader Q&A: Can TrueNicks Be Used in Thoroughbred Handicapping?

re: Reader Q&A: Can TrueNicks Be Used in Thoroughbred Handicapping?

Tony Kelso — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 06:06:59 GMT

Any rating system in the horse racing game is only going to work 20% to 50% of the time if the sample is large enough....And we all know that FREAKS can come out of nowhere. The breeder (or handicapper) has to pick his spots when there is VALUE, or use his/her data to go against conventional wisdom when the odds are right, or if you have a hunch.

re: Reader Q&A: Can TrueNicks Be Used in Thoroughbred Handicapping?

Alan Porter — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 03:18:47 GMT

Thank you for your comments Chris.

TrueNicks is based on sound mathematical principals. As we say elsewhere on the site, it compares the percentage of stakes winners sire by the sire (or sire line) out of mares by the broodmare sire (or broodmare sire line), to the percentage of stakes winners sired by the sire (or sire line) out of all other mares, and the percentage of stakes winners out of mares that have visited the subject sire (or sire line) when bred to all other stallions.

This enables it to work over wide ranges of commercial quality.

With regard to Barbaro, the fact that the system does not rate a good horse highly does not indicate a flaw. As we say in our explanation there will always be a percentage of stakes winners that will be rated C or D, but it will always be a lower percentage than those rated A or B.

Dynaformer has outperformed opportunity with mares by Mr. Prospector himself. With mares by Mr. Prospector AND his sons, the strike rate has been less good, even though some good horses have appeared (notably Barbaro and Riskaverse). We have actually written about this before, but what it suggests is that, while Dynaformer/Mr. Prospector is a good pedigree combination, Dynaformer's somewhat unusual bio-mechanics require a particular type of mare to fit him. Study of the best horses bred on the cross (on the TrueNicks page) might be rewarding in this light. By the way, Dynaformers % of stakes winners/starters out of mares by sons of Mr. Prospector is significantly LOWER that with all other mares. So it is quite correct not to reflect this as an outstanding cross.

As regards a cross being good because of one stakes winners, this is not possible as it takes at least two stakes winners out of different mares (unlike some other nicking programs) to get a rating.

It is quite possible for a cross that has been extensively tried to get a good rating. For example, I tried A.P. Indy over a mare by Sahm (by Mr. Prospector) to get an A.P. Indy/Mr. Prospector cross, and this gets an A+, even though there are over 150 starters by A.P. Indy out of mares by Mr. Prospector and his sons (and that doesn't even include grandsons). Bear in mind too that in this case, the cross is having to improve on what has otherwise been produced by some very good mares.

re: Reader Q&A: Can TrueNicks Be Used in Thoroughbred Handicapping?

trevor — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 10:35:52 GMT

HI Alan,

A son of Arazi named Zwick. His Dam is Madeleine's Dream/Theatrical Cross on Northern Dancer/Habitat is a good nick. Dear is a Stakes Winners G1Winners on The Cross Also.

re: Reader Q&A: Can TrueNicks Be Used in Thoroughbred Handicapping?

LarryK — Sun, 07 Dec 2008 23:12:39 GMT

I've used it several times, especially with first outs.

And its worked well for me

re: Reader Q&A: Can TrueNicks Be Used in Thoroughbred Handicapping?

chris — Sun, 07 Dec 2008 12:38:52 GMT

I have just paged through the new stallion register...It is really emabarrassing for true nicks that they don't include ratings for horses like Barbaro (a "C" true Nick rating) on the stallion page....Is it better for business to include only good "Nick" ratings...even though it seems that good nick ratings...mostly occur when a small number of horses are bred on a cross ...and that cross happens to produce a stakes winner...Large numbers in a cross tend to dilute your ratings....so it apppears that True Nicks is a "smoke and mirrors" nicking system based on dubious and statistically non-significant data...really now...

re: Reader Q&A: Can TrueNicks Be Used in Thoroughbred Handicapping?

Kent D. Hersman — Sun, 07 Dec 2008 07:38:13 GMT

We all wish breeding and handicapping was as easy as picking the A++, racing just doesn't work like that.

Byron's Reply: I wish it was that easy also! Just as TrueNicks is an aid (not the answer) to breeding a superior racehorse, any handicapping product that we are able to develop would also be an aid. It would require interpretation and judgement to use.