Reader Q&A -- This Cross Produced Multiple Grade I Winners, Why Is It a "C" Rating?

re: Reader Q&A -- This Cross Produced Multiple Grade I Winners, Why Is It a "C" Rating?

todd — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 02:48:50 GMT

I have a Buckaroo mare that has produced five winners from five runners, she was good to 3/4 mile as a runner and earned 179,000 for her owners. The best horse she produced came from a speed sire, so that is what I choose for her next mating. Your service gave an A++ rating. She will see "Woke Up Dreamin" in the spring. Thank you for the help in my selection, I am a hobby breeder...

re: Reader Q&A -- This Cross Produced Multiple Grade I Winners, Why Is It a "C" Rating?

michael d — Sun, 14 Dec 2008 18:30:22 GMT

Thanks Alan, I appreciate your comments. Gateway South is my mare, due to her age she won't have many more foals. I want to give her every opportunity to produce a SW, she is such a grand old girl. What are your fees for consulting on a breeding?

re: Reader Q&A -- This Cross Produced Multiple Grade I Winners, Why Is It a "C" Rating?

Alan Porter — Sat, 13 Dec 2008 16:37:04 GMT

Michael D,

Hi. I note that both Danzig-line stallions that sired stakes winners out of mares by At the Threshold added more La Troienne.

Overall, I think either would be viable, and At the Threshold gives a daughter of Northern Dancer. I see that the At the Threshold/Cutlass cross produced a nice filly called Gateway South.

Good luck with the mating.

re: Reader Q&A -- This Cross Produced Multiple Grade I Winners, Why Is It a "C" Rating?

michael d — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 21:58:25 GMT

The Danzig x Buckpasser cross interests me in that I have a mare by At The Threshold out of a Cutlass mare. I'm looking at Defer and Outflanker for '09. Danzig is an A++ cross to both At The Threshold and Cutlass. Am I on the right course or are there better crosses available? Thanks

re: Reader Q&A -- This Cross Produced Multiple Grade I Winners, Why Is It a "C" Rating?

Alan Porter — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 19:35:53 GMT

Chris,

I posted a lengthy answer to your comments re Barbaro and the over statistical validity, on the Nasrullah/Northern Dancer inbreeding thread.

To re-iterate very briefly. TrueNicks was calibrated on a test group of 100,000 foals, and the results were found to highly statistically significant.

There is a tendency for a cross that has produced two stakes winners from small opportunity to produce a high-rating (an example would be Unbridled with mares by Olympio, that has produced two stakes winners and a stakes placed horse from three starters, and out of different mares. Until there is evidence otherwise, the cross should be rated highly).

However, many crosses that have a high population of runners still rank highly, (including A.P. Indy with Mr. Prospector-line mares, and Unbridled's Song with Storm Cat mares).

The ratings, while a very important reflection of tendencies and trends, were never designed to be blindly followed, any more than one would suggest handicapping the Breeders' Cup purely on the basis of last time out Speedfigures, with no regard to class, pace, trip, etc. factors.

I've been a student of Thoroughbred pedigrees for more than 30 years and have been planning matings professionally for 25 years, and I certainly find the ratings a very useful guide, and an invaluable prompt for directs of further study.

re: Reader Q&A -- This Cross Produced Multiple Grade I Winners, Why Is It a "C" Rating?

NEVERKICKYOURDOG — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 16:23:39 GMT

QUESTION TO "HORSETRADER"----IS "TRADER" JOHN CLARK STILL AROUND?

re: Reader Q&A -- This Cross Produced Multiple Grade I Winners, Why Is It a "C" Rating?

chris — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 14:18:40 GMT

come on blogger...post one of mine!!

re: Reader Q&A -- This Cross Produced Multiple Grade I Winners, Why Is It a "C" Rating?

chris — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 14:18:16 GMT

again...I state the obvious...small numbers can generate A++ nicks... just look at the pages of the stallion register which now show True Nick ratings for a stallion's ofspring...(only good ratings are shown..hmmmm) if you run those ratings you will see they are usually based on small numbers of a sires offspring being bred to a stallion...and producing a mediocre stakes horse to earn a A++ rating....YOUR RATINGS ARE BASED ON STATISTICALLY INSIGNIFICANT NUMBERS...THEY ARE VIRTUALLY MEANINGLESS!!!I am still in awe that the Bloodhorse has partnered up in this non-sensical venture...I should probably cancel my 25 year ongoing subscription in protest!!!

re: Reader Q&A -- This Cross Produced Multiple Grade I Winners, Why Is It a "C" Rating?

Bellwether — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 06:43:51 GMT

to much on the head...its a lot more FUN RACING THEM!!!...Long Live The King!!!

re: Reader Q&A -- This Cross Produced Multiple Grade I Winners, Why Is It a "C" Rating?

Alan Porter — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 02:55:40 GMT

Hi Bill. At the moment there is little evidence to evaluate Tenpins in his own right, rather than as a "son of Smart Strike."

He does, however, already have two first crop stakes winners - one the Indiana-bred Tenmor - and both are out of Northern Dancer line mares. This is obviously a better strike rate than he has had with all other mares, and it is also a better strike rate than the Northern Dancer line mares that are dams of Tenpins stakes winners have when bred to all other mares. For this reason, at the moment, the cross of Tenpins with a Northern Dancer line mare will rate highly.

re: Reader Q&A -- This Cross Produced Multiple Grade I Winners, Why Is It a "C" Rating?

NEVERKICKYOURDOG — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 02:43:26 GMT

In my opinion, you are not dealing with enough salient factors in come to your conclusions about what works, e.g who were their competitors, who trained them, who shod them, what circuits did they compete on & 23 other factors....

re: Reader Q&A -- This Cross Produced Multiple Grade I Winners, Why Is It a "C" Rating?

Horsetrader — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 02:14:49 GMT

I pose the following question; Do nicks work because someone either figures out or

stumbles upon a mix of genes that turns out to have a higher then average rate of success

on the race tract.

Or do they happen because they have to based on the law of averages.

I say they have to. And more so then ever. I have been doing this on a profession level

for more then 25 years. I have read, studied, observed, talked with and friends with some

of the most successful breeders living or dead. There is one thing I have found over the

years that we all have in common when making mating decisions. It is that fact that we all

look at the results of other breeders efforts in prior years who used the same stallions or

sons of on ones short list that were crossed with similar pedigrees of the mare we are

working on. Some times there appears to be a clear affinity for a stallion over a

broodmare sire. If not the broodmare sire then we go back a generation. Is there

repetition there? Sound familiar to my fellow breeders who actually put their money up?

Now, not too long ago getting 35 to 40 mares to a stallion was considered a very good

year. In fact the number of shares used to syndicate Secretariat and Northern Dancer was

35. I know because I have copies of the original syndicate contacts buried some where.

And if memory serves me I believe the maximum mares bred was around 50 as worded in

the contract. So, if in those days based on such a small book of mares and one was to see

this affinity it stands to reason that it would be an easy band wagon to jump. But take into

consideration the commercial market was completely different then it is now. There were

no Taylor Made’s and others of like, no disrespect intended, where the majority of their

consignments are made up of hobby breeders but rather those who made their living at

breeding horses. Keep in mind that we are going back to the dawn of the modern day idea

that one can make a killing on one horse in the ring. 35 years of so. When, if memory

serves me right Jim Scully was the first to put together a syndicate of buyers to bid for a

yearling for over $1,000,000 that acutely made a profit. Wajima (sp). And people took

notice. In my opinion this is when the breeding of race horses for profit in the ring

gathered momentum. By the mid 80’s when just about every yearling by Northern Dancer

with 4 legs brought at least $1,000,000. More if they were correct. Everybody wanted in.

So, what is my point? When it comes to breeding horses we grasp at straws. Why?

Because it is an inexact science in what has become an exact world. Though most refuse

to except that fact. Why? Because there can be a pot of got at the end of the rainbow.

When state lotteries fist started the biggest prize was on in the millions. Now it can be

more then a quarter of a billion! Why? Because people took notice of the first winners.

And the rest is exponential. So, I say the same with nicks. Once a new stallion has

enough runners to make or break him breeders will pass judgment. We will look for a

rhyme or reason. When the first couple of Northern Dance over Mr. Prospectors worked

it gave credence. It may have been only a couple of Mr. P mares at first but I think it

became exponential there after. And if you could not afford breeding Northern Dance

with a Mr. P mare then you bred to a son of Northern Dance out of a daughter by a son of

Mr. Prospector. The top tier stallions will obviously get the best mares and the best

opportunity. Being that most stallions that fall into this category are by the best stallions of

their generation. Breeders are going to look at what pedigrees worked with their sires or

dams. And will for the most part follow that lead. So, if you are still able to follow my

drift hopefully you can understand my point. It happens because it has to. First came

two eggs and then a lot of chickens.

The same can be said for broodmare sires. The best broodmares sires are by the most

popular sires when they went to stud. They, by in large got the best mares. Even if their

daughter were not the best on the race track. The were the best of the best pedigree wise.

So when they went to the breeding shed they had pedigrees that justified sending them to

the best stallions. And the rest is history. No crystal ball just common sense. At least that is the way I see.

re: Reader Q&A -- This Cross Produced Multiple Grade I Winners, Why Is It a "C" Rating?

bill h — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 00:20:50 GMT

why does a Tenpins cross on a Louis Quatorze mare get an A++ when the primary stakes winner is an indiana-bred outrunning less than quality horses in state bred races.